Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 01 | NHL AI Picks

Updated: 2025-04-29T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators face off in Game 6 of their first-round playoff series on May 1, 2025, at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. Toronto leads the series 3-2, with Ottawa aiming to force a decisive Game 7.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 01, 2025

Start Time: 7:00 PM EST​

Venue: Canadian Tire Centre​

Senators Record: (45-30)

Maple Leafs Record: (52-26)

OPENING ODDS

TOR Moneyline: -101

OTT Moneyline: -119

TOR Spread: +1.5

OTT Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 5.5

TOR
Betting Trends

  • The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 5 playoff games, demonstrating resilience in closely contested matchups.

OTT
Betting Trends

  • The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating strong performances, especially when playing at home.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Toronto is favored with a moneyline of -164, while Ottawa stands at +138; the over/under is set at 5.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a moderately low-scoring game.

TOR vs. OTT
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 9.5 Faceoffs Won.

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Toronto vs Ottawa Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 5/1/25

The Battle of Ontario continues with high stakes as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators face off in Game 6 of their fiercely contested first-round playoff series on May 1, 2025, at Canadian Tire Centre. With Toronto leading the series 3-2, the Maple Leafs are one win away from advancing, while the Senators are playing for survival on home ice. This series has been marked by its intensity, momentum swings, and tight scorelines—three of the five games have been decided by just one goal, underscoring the narrow margins that have defined this rivalry. Toronto, led by offensive powerhouse Auston Matthews and dynamic playmaker Mitch Marner, has shown flashes of dominance but struggled with consistency, especially in their most recent 4-0 loss in Game 5. The Leafs will need to shake off that result quickly and bring urgency and focus back to their offensive execution, as the Senators have proven capable of suffocating their scoring lanes when disciplined in their structure. The Senators, on the other hand, come into Game 6 energized by a commanding shutout win, backed by a flawless performance from goaltender Linus Ullmark and a defensive unit that effectively neutralized Toronto’s attack. Ottawa’s young core, headlined by Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk, continues to rise to the occasion, providing grit, scoring, and emotional leadership when the pressure is at its peak.

Special teams play will be a key factor in Game 6, with both teams looking to improve power play efficiency while staying out of the box to avoid costly penalties. Goaltending will again be critical—Ullmark has found his rhythm, while Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz must bounce back after an unsteady showing in Game 5. Expect a heavy, physical game with both teams aiming to set the tone early; puck management, forechecking, and neutral zone discipline will be essential on both ends. Toronto may hold the edge in experience and firepower, but Ottawa has proven to be resilient, especially when backed by their home crowd. If the Maple Leafs can re-establish their forecheck, control the tempo, and limit defensive zone turnovers, they have a clear path to closing the series. But if Ottawa rides the momentum from Game 5 and plays with the structure and confidence they showed in their last outing, we may be headed for a dramatic Game 7. Ultimately, this game will come down to which team handles the pressure better—whether Toronto can shed its recent postseason demons or whether Ottawa’s youth movement can extend its remarkable playoff push. One game, potentially one bounce, may determine the fate of the series.

Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter Game 6 of their first-round playoff series against the Ottawa Senators holding a 3-2 series lead but facing a critical test of composure and consistency as they attempt to close things out on the road. After suffering a 4-0 shutout loss in Game 5, Toronto must quickly regroup and reassert the offensive identity that helped them build their series advantage. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, two of the league’s most dangerous forwards, have combined for big moments in earlier games, but their presence was effectively neutralized by Ottawa’s aggressive forecheck and tight defensive zone coverage in the most recent contest. The pressure is firmly on the Maple Leafs to avoid slipping into familiar playoff frustrations, as their postseason history is marked by missed opportunities in elimination scenarios. Coach Sheldon Keefe will be leaning heavily on his top-six forwards to generate sustained zone time and capitalize on any power play opportunities, especially as the Senators have proven vulnerable when forced into penalty kills under pressure. Defensively, Toronto has been adequate but inconsistent—when they play with structure and keep breakouts clean, they look poised; when they force plays or get caught pinching, they open themselves up to transition chances that Ottawa has increasingly exploited.

Goaltender Anthony Stolarz has been dependable throughout the series but is now coming off a shaky Game 5 in which rebound control and defensive coverage breakdowns allowed the Senators to pull away. A bounce-back performance from Stolarz, along with smarter puck decisions from Toronto’s blueline, will be essential to keep Ottawa from gaining momentum early. The Leafs’ depth will also be tested, as players like William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies need to elevate their play in what could be a series-defining moment. Special teams remain a swing factor: Toronto’s power play has shown flashes of brilliance but has lacked consistency, and their penalty kill must stay disciplined against an Ottawa team that has grown more aggressive near the crease. The psychological element also cannot be ignored—the weight of past playoff failures looms over this franchise, and closing out a feisty division rival like Ottawa on their home ice is both a tactical and mental challenge. If the Maple Leafs can find their rhythm early, take the crowd out of it, and execute with the urgency the moment demands, they have the experience and talent to seal the series. But if they start slow, let frustration mount, or allow Ottawa’s physical game to dictate the tempo, they risk letting a golden opportunity slip away and potentially facing a do-or-die Game 7. For Toronto, this is more than a playoff game—it’s a character test, a chance to rewrite a narrative, and a pivotal step toward a deeper postseason run.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators face off in Game 6 of their first-round playoff series on May 1, 2025, at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. Toronto leads the series 3-2, with Ottawa aiming to force a decisive Game 7. Toronto vs Ottawa AI Prediction: Free NHL Betting Insights for May 01. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Ottawa Senators NHL Preview

The Ottawa Senators return to home ice for Game 6 with renewed energy and confidence, fueled by their dominant 4-0 shutout win over the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 5 that kept their playoff hopes alive. Now trailing 3-2 in the series, the Senators have a prime opportunity to even the series in front of a raucous home crowd at Canadian Tire Centre and force a decisive Game 7. The turnaround in Game 5 was driven by exceptional defensive structure, relentless physical play, and a masterclass performance in net from Linus Ullmark, who was calm, composed, and perfect in his crease. Ullmark’s 31-save effort not only blanked Toronto’s high-octane offense but also galvanized the rest of the Senators’ roster, which played with renewed purpose and accountability in all three zones. Ottawa’s young core continues to step up under pressure, with Tim Stützle showcasing elite skating and vision, and captain Brady Tkachuk bringing his trademark mix of physicality and timely scoring. Their top line dictated pace and established a presence early, something the Senators will look to replicate in Game 6 to prevent the Leafs from settling into their offensive rhythm. Defensively, Jake Sanderson led the charge with poised puck movement and smart gap control, helping to eliminate second-chance opportunities and frustrate Toronto’s forwards in the neutral zone.

The Senators’ ability to manage the puck and make high-percentage plays in transition was critical in preventing the Maple Leafs from generating momentum, and that blueprint will be essential again in Game 6. Coach D.J. Smith emphasized discipline and pace ahead of Game 5, and his team responded by limiting penalties and capitalizing on Toronto’s mistakes—a trend they must continue to keep the Leafs from exploiting their dangerous power play. Special teams have quietly been a strength for Ottawa during the series, with their penalty kill outperforming expectations and their power play finding creative looks thanks to the playmaking of Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux. The home atmosphere will be electric, and the Senators are keenly aware that harnessing that energy while maintaining composure will be critical to their success. With momentum on their side and belief surging through a young and hungry locker room, Ottawa has a golden chance to continue rewriting their own narrative and prove they’re more than just a plucky underdog. A win in Game 6 would not only push the series to the brink but also mark a defining moment for a franchise that’s building toward long-term contention. If the Senators play with the same tenacity, defensive discipline, and opportunistic scoring they showcased in Game 5, they stand an excellent chance of keeping their playoff run alive and sending the series back to Toronto for a winner-take-all finale.

Toronto vs. Ottawa Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Maple Leafs and Senators play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Canadian Tire Centre in May can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 9.5 Faceoffs Won.

Toronto vs. Ottawa Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every angle between the Maple Leafs and Senators and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on coaching factors between a Maple Leafs team going up against a possibly tired Senators team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Toronto vs Ottawa picks, computer picks Maple Leafs vs Senators, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule. 

Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 5 playoff games, demonstrating resilience in closely contested matchups.

Senators Betting Trends

The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating strong performances, especially when playing at home.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators Matchup Trends

Toronto is favored with a moneyline of -164, while Ottawa stands at +138; the over/under is set at 5.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a moderately low-scoring game.

Toronto vs. Ottawa Game Info

Toronto vs Ottawa starts on May 01, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.

Venue: Canadian Tire Centre.

Spread: Ottawa -1.5
Moneyline: Toronto -101, Ottawa -119
Over/Under: 5.5

Toronto: (52-26)  |  Ottawa: (45-30)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 9.5 Faceoffs Won.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Toronto is favored with a moneyline of -164, while Ottawa stands at +138; the over/under is set at 5.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a moderately low-scoring game.

TOR trend: The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 5 playoff games, demonstrating resilience in closely contested matchups.

OTT trend: The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating strong performances, especially when playing at home.

See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Toronto vs. Ottawa Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the Toronto vs Ottawa trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Toronto vs Ottawa Opening Odds

TOR Moneyline: -101
OTT Moneyline: -119
TOR Spread: +1.5
OTT Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 5.5

Toronto vs Ottawa Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 7, 2025 5:00PM EDT
Chicago Blackhawks
Florida Panthers
10/7/25 5PM
Blackhawks
Panthers
+220
-275
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
Oct 7, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Pittsburgh Penguins
New York Rangers
10/7/25 8:10PM
Penguins
Rangers
+170
-210
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
O 5.5 (-130)
U 5.5 (+110)
Oct 7, 2025 10:40PM EDT
Colorado Avalanche
Los Angeles Kings
10/7/25 10:40PM
Avalanche
Kings
-110
-110
-1.5 (+220)
+1.5 (-275)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
Oct 8, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
10/8/25 7:10PM
Canadiens
Maple Leafs
 
-170
 
-1.5 (+140)
O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
Oct 8, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Boston Bruins
Washington Capitals
10/8/25 7:40PM
Bruins
Capitals
+145
-185
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
O 5.5 (-110)
U 5.5 (-110)
Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
10/8/25 10:10PM
Flames
Oilers
+165
-210
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+115)
O 6.5 (+105)
U 6.5 (-125)
Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Kings
Las Vegas Golden Knights
10/8/25 10:10PM
Kings
Golden Knights
+155
 
+1.5 (-160)
 
O 5.5 (-120)
U 5.5 (+100)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Ottawa Senators
Tampa Bay Lightning
10/9/25 7:10PM
Senators
Lightning
+136
-162
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
10/9/25 7:10PM
Canadiens
Red Wings
 
-130
 
-1.5 (+180)
O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Chicago Blackhawks
Boston Bruins
10/9/25 7:10PM
Blackhawks
Bruins
+124
-148
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Rangers
Buffalo Sabres
10/9/25 7:10PM
Rangers
Sabres
-120
+100
-1.5 (+210)
+1.5 (-258)
O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
10/9/25 7:10PM
Islanders
Penguins
-120
+100
-1.5 (+205)
+1.5 (-250)
O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Philadelphia Flyers
Florida Panthers
10/9/25 7:10PM
Flyers
Panthers
+164
-198
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
O 5.5 (-110)
U 5.5 (-110)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New Jersey Devils
Carolina Hurricanes
10/9/25 7:10PM
Devils
Hurricanes
+136
-162
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
Oct 9, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Minnesota Wild
St Louis Blues
10/9/25 8:10PM
Wild
Blues
-110
-110
+1.5 (-265)
-1.5 (+215)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)

NHL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators on May 01, 2025 at Canadian Tire Centre.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
CAR@WAS WAS +140 47.70% 3 WIN
WPG@STL STL -110 54.80% 4 WIN
WPG@STL UNDER 5.5 55.70% 4 LOSS
CGY@LA MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS 53.10% 3 WIN
TB@NYR TB +110 49.80% 3 LOSS
SJ@VAN ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES 54.50% 4 LOSS
BUF@TB OVER 6.5 53.90% 3 WIN
NYI@PHI PHI -110 54.00% 3 WIN
LV@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 53.00% 3 WIN
EDM@ANA OVER 6 54.20% 3 LOSS
CAR@BOS OVER 5.5 54.00% 3 WIN
NYR@NJ NJ -125 57.30% 4 WIN
COL@CLB OVER 6.5 53.80% 3 WIN
LA@UTA LA -125 54.70% 3 WIN
WPG@LV LV -120 54.80% 3 LOSS
MIN@NJ UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 WIN
NSH@PHI PHI -120 55.00% 3 WIN
OTT@BUF OVER 6 54.00% 3 LOSS
CHI@SJ CHI +105 51.60% 3 LOSS
WAS@LA WAS +105 51.20% 3 LOSS
TB@CAR CAR -130 56.40% 3 WIN
NSH@BOS BOS -125 55.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@SEA SEA -120 54.60% 3 LOSS
SJ@TOR OVER 6 54.80% 3 LOSS
BUF@MON MON -110 54.70% 4 WIN
BOS@PIT PIT -120 54.90% 3 LOSS
LA@STL STL -110 53.70% 3 WIN
LA@DAL DAL -125 56.40% 4 WIN
PIT@PHI PHI -116 54.20% 3 WIN
DET@MIN MIN -115 54.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@DET DET -130 58.00% 3 LOSS
DAL@LA UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 LOSS
LV@NJ LV -115 53.80% 3 WIN
DET@SEA LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.20% 4 WIN
STL@UTA UTA -125 58.30% 4 LOSS
NSH@BUF NSH -120 54.50% 4 LOSS
MIN@MON MATT BOLDY OVER 0.5 POINTS 55.60% 5 LOSS
ANA@SEA SEA -125 56.10% 3 LOSS
DAL@LV LV -120 55.00% 3 LOSS
VAN@STL STL -130 57.40% 4 LOSS
COL@NYR NYR -115 53.90% 3 LOSS
UTA@OTT OTT -120 54.90% 3 WIN
FLA@LV LV -123 56.00% 4 WIN
WAS@VAN WAS -114 53.50% 3 LOSS
FLA@SJ MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.80% 4 WIN
PIT@SEA SEA -114 54.80% 4 WIN
PHI@NYI BO HORVAT OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.70% 4 WIN
PHI@NYI OVER 5.5 54.60% 4 LOSS
OTT@BOS OVER 5.5 53.90% 3 LOSS
MON@DET DET -122 56.40% 4 WIN
BUF@CGY CGY -135 58.40% 4 WIN