Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Prediction, Odds & Props
May 01 | NHL AI Picks
Updated: 2025-04-29T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators face off in Game 6 of their first-round playoff series on May 1, 2025, at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. Toronto leads the series 3-2, with Ottawa aiming to force a decisive Game 7.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: May 01, 2025
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST​
Venue: Canadian Tire Centre​
Senators Record: (45-30)
Maple Leafs Record: (52-26)
OPENING ODDS
TOR Moneyline: -101
OTT Moneyline: -119
TOR Spread: +1.5
OTT Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 5.5
TOR
Betting Trends
- The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 5 playoff games, demonstrating resilience in closely contested matchups.
OTT
Betting Trends
- The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating strong performances, especially when playing at home.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Toronto is favored with a moneyline of -164, while Ottawa stands at +138; the over/under is set at 5.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a moderately low-scoring game.
TOR vs. OTT
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 9.5 Faceoffs Won.
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Toronto vs Ottawa Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 5/1/25
Special teams play will be a key factor in Game 6, with both teams looking to improve power play efficiency while staying out of the box to avoid costly penalties. Goaltending will again be critical—Ullmark has found his rhythm, while Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz must bounce back after an unsteady showing in Game 5. Expect a heavy, physical game with both teams aiming to set the tone early; puck management, forechecking, and neutral zone discipline will be essential on both ends. Toronto may hold the edge in experience and firepower, but Ottawa has proven to be resilient, especially when backed by their home crowd. If the Maple Leafs can re-establish their forecheck, control the tempo, and limit defensive zone turnovers, they have a clear path to closing the series. But if Ottawa rides the momentum from Game 5 and plays with the structure and confidence they showed in their last outing, we may be headed for a dramatic Game 7. Ultimately, this game will come down to which team handles the pressure better—whether Toronto can shed its recent postseason demons or whether Ottawa’s youth movement can extend its remarkable playoff push. One game, potentially one bounce, may determine the fate of the series.
Game 6 Thursday pic.twitter.com/gvbzqZ7qaJ
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 30, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter Game 6 of their first-round playoff series against the Ottawa Senators holding a 3-2 series lead but facing a critical test of composure and consistency as they attempt to close things out on the road. After suffering a 4-0 shutout loss in Game 5, Toronto must quickly regroup and reassert the offensive identity that helped them build their series advantage. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, two of the league’s most dangerous forwards, have combined for big moments in earlier games, but their presence was effectively neutralized by Ottawa’s aggressive forecheck and tight defensive zone coverage in the most recent contest. The pressure is firmly on the Maple Leafs to avoid slipping into familiar playoff frustrations, as their postseason history is marked by missed opportunities in elimination scenarios. Coach Sheldon Keefe will be leaning heavily on his top-six forwards to generate sustained zone time and capitalize on any power play opportunities, especially as the Senators have proven vulnerable when forced into penalty kills under pressure. Defensively, Toronto has been adequate but inconsistent—when they play with structure and keep breakouts clean, they look poised; when they force plays or get caught pinching, they open themselves up to transition chances that Ottawa has increasingly exploited.
Goaltender Anthony Stolarz has been dependable throughout the series but is now coming off a shaky Game 5 in which rebound control and defensive coverage breakdowns allowed the Senators to pull away. A bounce-back performance from Stolarz, along with smarter puck decisions from Toronto’s blueline, will be essential to keep Ottawa from gaining momentum early. The Leafs’ depth will also be tested, as players like William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies need to elevate their play in what could be a series-defining moment. Special teams remain a swing factor: Toronto’s power play has shown flashes of brilliance but has lacked consistency, and their penalty kill must stay disciplined against an Ottawa team that has grown more aggressive near the crease. The psychological element also cannot be ignored—the weight of past playoff failures looms over this franchise, and closing out a feisty division rival like Ottawa on their home ice is both a tactical and mental challenge. If the Maple Leafs can find their rhythm early, take the crowd out of it, and execute with the urgency the moment demands, they have the experience and talent to seal the series. But if they start slow, let frustration mount, or allow Ottawa’s physical game to dictate the tempo, they risk letting a golden opportunity slip away and potentially facing a do-or-die Game 7. For Toronto, this is more than a playoff game—it’s a character test, a chance to rewrite a narrative, and a pivotal step toward a deeper postseason run.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Ottawa Senators NHL Preview
The Ottawa Senators return to home ice for Game 6 with renewed energy and confidence, fueled by their dominant 4-0 shutout win over the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 5 that kept their playoff hopes alive. Now trailing 3-2 in the series, the Senators have a prime opportunity to even the series in front of a raucous home crowd at Canadian Tire Centre and force a decisive Game 7. The turnaround in Game 5 was driven by exceptional defensive structure, relentless physical play, and a masterclass performance in net from Linus Ullmark, who was calm, composed, and perfect in his crease. Ullmark’s 31-save effort not only blanked Toronto’s high-octane offense but also galvanized the rest of the Senators’ roster, which played with renewed purpose and accountability in all three zones. Ottawa’s young core continues to step up under pressure, with Tim Stützle showcasing elite skating and vision, and captain Brady Tkachuk bringing his trademark mix of physicality and timely scoring. Their top line dictated pace and established a presence early, something the Senators will look to replicate in Game 6 to prevent the Leafs from settling into their offensive rhythm. Defensively, Jake Sanderson led the charge with poised puck movement and smart gap control, helping to eliminate second-chance opportunities and frustrate Toronto’s forwards in the neutral zone.
The Senators’ ability to manage the puck and make high-percentage plays in transition was critical in preventing the Maple Leafs from generating momentum, and that blueprint will be essential again in Game 6. Coach D.J. Smith emphasized discipline and pace ahead of Game 5, and his team responded by limiting penalties and capitalizing on Toronto’s mistakes—a trend they must continue to keep the Leafs from exploiting their dangerous power play. Special teams have quietly been a strength for Ottawa during the series, with their penalty kill outperforming expectations and their power play finding creative looks thanks to the playmaking of Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux. The home atmosphere will be electric, and the Senators are keenly aware that harnessing that energy while maintaining composure will be critical to their success. With momentum on their side and belief surging through a young and hungry locker room, Ottawa has a golden chance to continue rewriting their own narrative and prove they’re more than just a plucky underdog. A win in Game 6 would not only push the series to the brink but also mark a defining moment for a franchise that’s building toward long-term contention. If the Senators play with the same tenacity, defensive discipline, and opportunistic scoring they showcased in Game 5, they stand an excellent chance of keeping their playoff run alive and sending the series back to Toronto for a winner-take-all finale.
24 hours ’til game six at @CdnTireCtr! Reply with what section you’re sitting in or where you’re tuning in from!
— X - Ottawa Senators (@Senators) April 30, 2025
Vingt-quatre heures avant le match numéro six! Répondez en indiquant dans quelle section vous vous trouverez ou d’où vous regarderez le match! pic.twitter.com/w1SRFE4wLX
Toronto vs. Ottawa Prop Picks (AI)
Toronto vs. Ottawa Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every angle between the Maple Leafs and Senators and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the unproportionally assigned weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on coaching factors between a Maple Leafs team going up against a possibly tired Senators team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Toronto vs Ottawa picks, computer picks Maple Leafs vs Senators, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule.Â
Maple Leafs Betting Trends
The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 5 playoff games, demonstrating resilience in closely contested matchups.
Senators Betting Trends
The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating strong performances, especially when playing at home.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Matchup Trends
Toronto is favored with a moneyline of -164, while Ottawa stands at +138; the over/under is set at 5.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a moderately low-scoring game.
Toronto vs. Ottawa Game Info
What time does Toronto vs Ottawa start on May 01, 2025?
Toronto vs Ottawa starts on May 01, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.
Where is Toronto vs Ottawa being played?
Venue: Canadian Tire Centre.
What are the opening odds for Toronto vs Ottawa?
Spread: Ottawa -1.5
Moneyline: Toronto -101, Ottawa -119
Over/Under: 5.5
What are the records for Toronto vs Ottawa?
Toronto: (52-26) Â |Â Ottawa: (45-30)
What is the AI best bet for Toronto vs Ottawa?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: A. Matthews under 9.5 Faceoffs Won.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Toronto vs Ottawa trending bets?
Toronto is favored with a moneyline of -164, while Ottawa stands at +138; the over/under is set at 5.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a moderately low-scoring game.
What are Toronto trending bets?
TOR trend: The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 5 playoff games, demonstrating resilience in closely contested matchups.
What are Ottawa trending bets?
OTT trend: The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 6 games, indicating strong performances, especially when playing at home.
Where can I find AI Picks for Toronto vs Ottawa?
See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Toronto vs. Ottawa Odds
Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the Toronto vs Ottawa trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Toronto vs Ottawa Opening Odds
TOR Moneyline:
-101 OTT Moneyline: -119
TOR Spread: +1.5
OTT Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 5.5
Toronto vs Ottawa Live Odds
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-170
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O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
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–
–
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+145
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+1.5 (-175)
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O 5.5 (-110)
U 5.5 (-110)
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Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
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+165
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O 6.5 (+105)
U 6.5 (-125)
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Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Kings
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+155
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+1.5 (-160)
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O 5.5 (-120)
U 5.5 (+100)
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Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Ottawa Senators
Tampa Bay Lightning
10/9/25 7:10PM
Senators
Lightning
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–
–
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+136
-162
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+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
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O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
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Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
10/9/25 7:10PM
Canadiens
Red Wings
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–
–
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-130
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-1.5 (+180)
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O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
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Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Chicago Blackhawks
Boston Bruins
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–
–
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+124
-148
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+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
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O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
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Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Rangers
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–
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-120
+100
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-1.5 (+210)
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U 6.5 (-130)
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–
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-120
+100
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-1.5 (+205)
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O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
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Philadelphia Flyers
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+164
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+1.5 (-135)
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O 5.5 (-110)
U 5.5 (-110)
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Devils
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–
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+136
-162
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+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
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O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
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Oct 9, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Minnesota Wild
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–
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-110
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-1.5 (+215)
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O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
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NHL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators on May 01, 2025 at Canadian Tire Centre.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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   LEAN |    %WIN |    UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
CAR@WAS | WAS +140 | 47.70% | 3 | WIN |
WPG@STL | STL -110 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
WPG@STL | UNDER 5.5 | 55.70% | 4 | LOSS |
CGY@LA | MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS | 53.10% | 3 | WIN |
TB@NYR | TB +110 | 49.80% | 3 | LOSS |
SJ@VAN | ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
BUF@TB | OVER 6.5 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
NYI@PHI | PHI -110 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
LV@EDM | RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 53.00% | 3 | WIN |
EDM@ANA | OVER 6 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
CAR@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
NYR@NJ | NJ -125 | 57.30% | 4 | WIN |
COL@CLB | OVER 6.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
LA@UTA | LA -125 | 54.70% | 3 | WIN |
WPG@LV | LV -120 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@NJ | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
NSH@PHI | PHI -120 | 55.00% | 3 | WIN |
OTT@BUF | OVER 6 | 54.00% | 3 | LOSS |
CHI@SJ | CHI +105 | 51.60% | 3 | LOSS |
WAS@LA | WAS +105 | 51.20% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@CAR | CAR -130 | 56.40% | 3 | WIN |
NSH@BOS | BOS -125 | 55.20% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@SEA | SEA -120 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
SJ@TOR | OVER 6 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
BUF@MON | MON -110 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@PIT | PIT -120 | 54.90% | 3 | LOSS |
LA@STL | STL -110 | 53.70% | 3 | WIN |
LA@DAL | DAL -125 | 56.40% | 4 | WIN |
PIT@PHI | PHI -116 | 54.20% | 3 | WIN |
DET@MIN | MIN -115 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@DET | DET -130 | 58.00% | 3 | LOSS |
DAL@LA | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | LOSS |
LV@NJ | LV -115 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
DET@SEA | LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
STL@UTA | UTA -125 | 58.30% | 4 | LOSS |
NSH@BUF | NSH -120 | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@MON | MATT BOLDY OVER 0.5 POINTS | 55.60% | 5 | LOSS |
ANA@SEA | SEA -125 | 56.10% | 3 | LOSS |
DAL@LV | LV -120 | 55.00% | 3 | LOSS |
VAN@STL | STL -130 | 57.40% | 4 | LOSS |
COL@NYR | NYR -115 | 53.90% | 3 | LOSS |
UTA@OTT | OTT -120 | 54.90% | 3 | WIN |
FLA@LV | LV -123 | 56.00% | 4 | WIN |
WAS@VAN | WAS -114 | 53.50% | 3 | LOSS |
FLA@SJ | MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
PIT@SEA | SEA -114 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYI | BO HORVAT OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYI | OVER 5.5 | 54.60% | 4 | LOSS |
OTT@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 53.90% | 3 | LOSS |
MON@DET | DET -122 | 56.40% | 4 | WIN |
BUF@CGY | CGY -135 | 58.40% | 4 | WIN |