The first-round playoff series between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs continues to deliver drama as it heads into Game 5 with Toronto holding a 3–1 series lead, yet feeling the pressure after a hard-fought overtime loss in Game 4 that denied them the sweep. This renewed life for Ottawa shifts the energy of the series slightly as they travel back to Toronto, a city where, despite the Maple Leafs’ considerable talent, the Senators have historically found a way to compete, having covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 matchups with Toronto. Game 4 was a physical, high-scoring affair that reflected the gritty tone this series has taken on, with both teams trading momentum and capitalizing on defensive breakdowns. Toronto will be focused on reasserting control early, led by the offensive firepower of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, whose ability to exploit space and punish mistakes has defined much of the Leafs’ postseason success so far. However, defensive inconsistencies and lapses in coverage, particularly in late-game situations, have allowed the Senators to stay within striking distance in nearly every contest. Ottawa, bolstered by strong showings from Tim Stützle and captain Brady Tkachuk, has embraced its underdog status with a relentless forecheck, scrappy net-front play, and a willingness to push Toronto physically in all three zones. Their goaltending, while inconsistent at times, rose to the occasion in Game 4, and if they hope to extend the series again, they’ll need another standout performance between the pipes.

Statistically, both teams have leaned toward high-scoring outcomes, with the total going over in the majority of their recent games, suggesting that special teams and goaltending could once again be pivotal in determining who pulls ahead. The Leafs’ power play has been more efficient, but Ottawa has made strides with their penalty kill and five-on-five play, especially when Tkachuk is involved in cycling the puck and creating high-danger chances. Game 5 will test Toronto’s ability to close out a series under the weight of expectation, something that has historically been a hurdle, while Ottawa enters with the benefit of playing freely, having already avoided elimination once and knowing their rivals have more to lose. Both coaching staffs will be looking for cleaner transitions and better puck management, especially with the pressure mounting in every shift and the stakes inching higher. A strong first period will be critical for both clubs—Toronto to shake off the sting of missed opportunity and capitalize on home ice, and Ottawa to continue building belief that this series is far from over. With the fans at Scotiabank Arena expected to bring playoff-level intensity and the rivalry backdrop adding emotional fuel, this Game 5 is shaping up to be another dramatic chapter in one of the NHL’s fiercest modern rivalries.