Senators vs. Maple Leafs
Prediction, Odds & Props
Apr 20 | NHL AI Picks

Updated: 2025-04-18T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs ignite with a renewed Battle of Ontario as the Ottawa Senators face the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 of their first-round series at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto, fresh off clinching the Atlantic Division, enters as the favorite, while Ottawa returns to postseason play for the first time since 2017.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Apr 20, 2025

Start Time: 7:00 PM EST​

Venue: Scotiabank Arena​

Maple Leafs Record: (52-26)

Senators Record: (45-30)

OPENING ODDS

OTT Moneyline: +134

TOR Moneyline: -159

OTT Spread: +1.5

TOR Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 5.5

OTT
Betting Trends

  • The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 5 games as road underdogs against the Maple Leafs.

TOR
Betting Trends

  • The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in 3 of their last 4 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their last 10 meetings, the underdog has covered the puck line in 7 games, indicating a trend of closely contested matchups between these rivals.

OTT vs. TOR
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Parayko under 23.75 Time on Ice.

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Ottawa vs Toronto Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 4/20/25

The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin with a fierce renewal of the Battle of Ontario as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators in Game 1 of their first-round series at Scotiabank Arena. This marks the first postseason meeting between the provincial rivals in over two decades, and both teams enter with high stakes and heightened intensity. Toronto, the Atlantic Division champions with a 51–26–4 record, has surged into the playoffs on a four-game winning streak, securing home-ice advantage and boasting one of the league’s most potent offensive cores. Led by the dynamic duo of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner—both coming off milestone seasons—the Leafs present an explosive threat in the offensive zone, especially with their lethal power play and improved defensive structure. Matthews, who reached the 400-goal mark, and Marner, who registered his first 100-point campaign, are playing at their peak just as the games matter most. Between the pipes, Anthony Stolarz has emerged as a surprise difference-maker down the stretch, with back-to-back shutouts and an eye-popping .950 save percentage in his last eight games, earning a perfect 8–0–0 record over that span. The Maple Leafs enter with confidence, structure, and momentum, but they’ll need every ounce of that against a Senators team hungry to spoil the party. The Ottawa Senators, 45–30–7 in the regular season, claimed the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Under head coach Travis Green, the Senators have evolved into a disciplined, defensively sound team that relies on structure and accountability rather than star power. Linus Ullmark has been the team’s backbone, providing elite goaltending and helping Ottawa finish in the top 10 for fewest goals allowed this season.

While their offensive numbers don’t jump off the page—ranking just 22nd in goals scored—they’ve found success by frustrating opponents with tight-checking hockey and capitalizing on mistakes. The team’s ability to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games against Toronto reflects just how competitive they’ve been in this rivalry, and they’ll enter Game 1 looking to keep things close and seize their opportunities. Ottawa’s strength lies in its ability to play close, grinding games, which makes them a dangerous matchup for high-octane offenses like Toronto’s, particularly if Ullmark can replicate his regular-season form under playoff pressure. While the Senators may not match the Leafs in star power, they bring the kind of grit and goaltending that can flip playoff series when the margins are razor thin. Overall, this Game 1 clash is more than a statistical showdown—it’s a narrative-driven, emotionally charged opening to a series steeped in history, fueled by contrast in playing styles, and amplified by playoff stakes. The Leafs enter as the clear favorites, powered by their elite scoring and a goaltender in peak form, but they’re also carrying the weight of postseason expectations and past letdowns. The Senators, playing with the freedom of an underdog and a chip on their shoulder, have the tools to make this series a war of attrition. If the pace leans toward wide-open play, Toronto could run away with it, but if Ottawa can muck things up and neutralize time and space, this could be one of the tighter, more unpredictable first-round matchups. Expect fireworks, physicality, and passionate fan bases on both sides in what promises to be a memorable chapter in Ontario hockey lore. Game 1 sets the tone, and both teams know that how they start may determine how far they can go.

Ottawa Senators NHL Preview

The Ottawa Senators enter Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs with both the burden and the thrill of finally returning to the postseason after an eight-year drought. At 45–30–7, the Senators clawed their way into the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, doing so not with overwhelming offensive might but with a firm commitment to structure, responsibility, and rock-solid goaltending. Head coach Travis Green has reshaped the team’s identity into one of defensive grit and tactical discipline, and that shift has paid off—Ottawa now ranks 10th in goals allowed, a significant leap from recent seasons where they often found themselves on the wrong side of high-scoring affairs. The primary reason behind that transformation is goaltender Linus Ullmark, whose presence in net has provided calm, confidence, and consistency. He’s been the cornerstone of their late-season playoff push, and he’ll be expected to carry a heavy load against a Toronto offense that thrives on speed, puck movement, and power play opportunities. With the Maple Leafs boasting two of the league’s most dangerous scorers in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, Ullmark will need to be exceptional—and that begins with silencing the crowd early and giving his team a chance to play from even footing. Offensively, the Senators face more uncertainty. Ranked 22nd in goals scored during the regular season, Ottawa will not win this series in a shootout.

Their best hope lies in playing tight, low-event hockey, relying on forechecking pressure to generate turnovers and convert in transition rather than through extended zone possession. That strategy has worked well in previous matchups against the Leafs—the Senators have covered the puck line in four of their last five games in Toronto, proving that they’re capable of hanging close and forcing Toronto into uncomfortable positions. Forward Tim Stützle will be leaned on to produce offense, as will Brady Tkachuk, whose blend of physicality and scoring touch can swing momentum with a single shift. Ottawa’s top six is capable, but the depth scoring will have to elevate its game to keep pace with Toronto’s deeper offensive units. Special teams may also be a factor—Ottawa’s penalty kill has been solid, but they’ll need to avoid undisciplined penalties that give Toronto’s elite power play additional opportunities. Staying five-on-five will give the Senators their best chance to contain the game and grind down a Leafs team that prefers high tempo and open ice. Ultimately, Ottawa enters as the underdog, but they do so with purpose and resilience. They’ve played their best hockey when counted out, and they have a blueprint that can frustrate even the most skilled opponents. Game 1 will be critical in determining whether the Senators can impose their pace and tone or be overwhelmed by Toronto’s offensive firestorm. If Ullmark stands tall and Ottawa’s defense keeps the Leafs to the perimeter, this could be a much closer contest than many expect. The Senators know the road to an upset begins with setting the tone early—and in a rivalry series where every moment is magnified, they’ll be aiming to strike first and remind the hockey world that playoff hockey in Ottawa is very much alive.

The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs ignite with a renewed Battle of Ontario as the Ottawa Senators face the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 of their first-round series at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto, fresh off clinching the Atlantic Division, enters as the favorite, while Ottawa returns to postseason play for the first time since 2017. Ottawa vs Toronto AI Prediction: Free NHL Betting Insights for Apr 20. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs open the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs on home ice at Scotiabank Arena as Atlantic Division champions, riding a wave of momentum and sky-high expectations into their first-round clash with the Ottawa Senators. With a 51–26–4 regular-season record and four straight wins to close out the campaign, Toronto arrives with one of the NHL’s most formidable lineups, featuring offensive firepower, improved defensive play, and surprisingly elite goaltending. The heartbeat of this Leafs squad is Auston Matthews, who made league history this season by reaching the 400-goal milestone faster than all but five players before him, reaffirming his status as one of the game’s most dangerous snipers. Mitch Marner complements him with a career-best 100-point season, providing playmaking brilliance and defensive awareness that give Toronto a multi-dimensional threat at both ends of the ice. But perhaps the most compelling storyline entering the playoffs is the rise of goaltender Anthony Stolarz, who enters Game 1 with an 8–0–0 record and a .950 save percentage over his last eight games. His back-to-back shutouts to end the season have quieted goaltending concerns that have long plagued this franchise and suddenly given Toronto something they haven’t had in recent playoff runs—elite form between the pipes. Toronto’s offense, which ranked near the top of the league in both goals scored and power play efficiency, has consistently overwhelmed opponents with puck movement, transition speed, and net-front pressure. The top line of Matthews, Marner, and Michael Bunting plays with exceptional chemistry, but what sets this Leafs team apart from previous iterations is its depth.

William Nylander, John Tavares, and Tyler Bertuzzi all provide secondary scoring, ensuring that opponents can’t just key in on the top unit. On the blue line, Morgan Rielly leads a group that has shown more structure and reliability, especially down the stretch when Toronto locked down key games to secure the division. Their penalty kill has improved, and defensive coverage in the slot—long a concern—has been tighter and more disciplined, particularly with the emergence of Jake McCabe as a physical, shutdown presence. Still, the Maple Leafs are aware of their postseason ghosts. Past playoff exits have often been defined by offensive droughts or untimely defensive breakdowns, and the weight of expectation looms large. Facing a stingy, defensively-oriented Ottawa team adds pressure, as the Senators are built to frustrate and counterpunch. Despite those storylines, Toronto enters Game 1 as deserved favorites and with a clear path to set the tone for the series. Their recent dominance, especially at home, positions them to control the tempo if they execute their game plan early—establishing the forecheck, generating traffic in front of Ullmark, and leveraging their man-advantage opportunities. The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four home games, a sign that games have remained close, but if their offense clicks and Stolarz remains steady in net, they could shift that trend quickly. In a series that brings with it the emotional weight of a provincial rivalry and the historic undertones of the Battle of Ontario, Game 1 presents an opportunity for the Leafs to make a statement—not just about their superiority over Ottawa, but about their readiness to chase the Stanley Cup with purpose, poise, and postseason maturity.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Senators and Maple Leafs play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Scotiabank Arena in Apr rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Parayko under 23.75 Time on Ice.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every facet between the Senators and Maple Leafs and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most watching on the linear correlation of factor knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Toronto’s strength factors between a Senators team going up against a possibly healthy Maple Leafs team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Ottawa vs Toronto picks, computer picks Senators vs Maple Leafs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule. 

Senators Betting Trends

The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 5 games as road underdogs against the Maple Leafs.

Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in 3 of their last 4 home games.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Matchup Trends

In their last 10 meetings, the underdog has covered the puck line in 7 games, indicating a trend of closely contested matchups between these rivals.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Game Info

Ottawa vs Toronto starts on April 20, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.

Venue: Scotiabank Arena.

Spread: Toronto -1.5
Moneyline: Ottawa +134, Toronto -159
Over/Under: 5.5

Ottawa: (45-30)  |  Toronto: (52-26)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Parayko under 23.75 Time on Ice.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their last 10 meetings, the underdog has covered the puck line in 7 games, indicating a trend of closely contested matchups between these rivals.

OTT trend: The Senators have covered the puck line in 4 of their last 5 games as road underdogs against the Maple Leafs.

TOR trend: The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in 3 of their last 4 home games.

See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Ottawa vs. Toronto Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Ottawa vs Toronto trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Ottawa vs Toronto Opening Odds

OTT Moneyline: +134
TOR Moneyline: -159
OTT Spread: +1.5
TOR Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 5.5

Ottawa vs Toronto Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 7, 2025 5:00PM EDT
Chicago Blackhawks
Florida Panthers
10/7/25 5PM
Blackhawks
Panthers
+280
-350
+1.5 (+115)
-1.5 (-135)
O 5.5 (-122)
U 5.5 (+100)
Oct 7, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Pittsburgh Penguins
New York Rangers
10/7/25 8:10PM
Penguins
Rangers
+170
-210
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
O 6.5 (+112)
U 6.5 (-140)
Oct 7, 2025 10:40PM EDT
Colorado Avalanche
Los Angeles Kings
10/7/25 10:40PM
Avalanche
Kings
-110
-110
-1.5 (+220)
+1.5 (-275)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
Oct 8, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
10/8/25 7:10PM
Canadiens
Maple Leafs
 
-170
 
-1.5 (+140)
O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
Oct 8, 2025 7:40PM EDT
Boston Bruins
Washington Capitals
10/8/25 7:40PM
Bruins
Capitals
+145
-185
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
O 5.5 (-110)
U 5.5 (-110)
Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
10/8/25 10:10PM
Flames
Oilers
+165
-210
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+115)
O 6.5 (+105)
U 6.5 (-125)
Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Kings
Las Vegas Golden Knights
10/8/25 10:10PM
Kings
Golden Knights
+155
 
+1.5 (-160)
 
O 5.5 (-120)
U 5.5 (+100)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Ottawa Senators
Tampa Bay Lightning
10/9/25 7:10PM
Senators
Lightning
+138
-155
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
O 6 (-115)
U 6 (-101)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
10/9/25 7:10PM
Canadiens
Red Wings
 
-125
 
-1.5 (+180)
O 6.5 (+112)
U 6.5 (-128)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Chicago Blackhawks
Boston Bruins
10/9/25 7:10PM
Blackhawks
Bruins
+125
-140
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-101)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Rangers
Buffalo Sabres
10/9/25 7:10PM
Rangers
Sabres
-115
+102
-1.5 (+210)
+1.5 (-258)
O 6.5 (+112)
U 6.5 (-128)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
10/9/25 7:10PM
Islanders
Penguins
-115
+102
-1.5 (+205)
+1.5 (-250)
O 5.5 (-122)
U 5.5 (+106)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Philadelphia Flyers
Florida Panthers
10/9/25 7:10PM
Flyers
Panthers
+178
-200
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
O 5.5 (-108)
U 5.5 (-108)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New Jersey Devils
Carolina Hurricanes
10/9/25 7:10PM
Devils
Hurricanes
+138
-155
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-101)
Oct 9, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Minnesota Wild
St Louis Blues
10/9/25 8:10PM
Wild
Blues
-106
-106
+1.5 (-265)
-1.5 (+215)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-101)

NHL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on April 20, 2025 at Scotiabank Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
CAR@WAS WAS +140 47.70% 3 WIN
WPG@STL STL -110 54.80% 4 WIN
WPG@STL UNDER 5.5 55.70% 4 LOSS
CGY@LA MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS 53.10% 3 WIN
TB@NYR TB +110 49.80% 3 LOSS
SJ@VAN ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES 54.50% 4 LOSS
BUF@TB OVER 6.5 53.90% 3 WIN
NYI@PHI PHI -110 54.00% 3 WIN
LV@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 53.00% 3 WIN
EDM@ANA OVER 6 54.20% 3 LOSS
CAR@BOS OVER 5.5 54.00% 3 WIN
NYR@NJ NJ -125 57.30% 4 WIN
COL@CLB OVER 6.5 53.80% 3 WIN
LA@UTA LA -125 54.70% 3 WIN
WPG@LV LV -120 54.80% 3 LOSS
MIN@NJ UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 WIN
NSH@PHI PHI -120 55.00% 3 WIN
OTT@BUF OVER 6 54.00% 3 LOSS
CHI@SJ CHI +105 51.60% 3 LOSS
WAS@LA WAS +105 51.20% 3 LOSS
TB@CAR CAR -130 56.40% 3 WIN
NSH@BOS BOS -125 55.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@SEA SEA -120 54.60% 3 LOSS
SJ@TOR OVER 6 54.80% 3 LOSS
BUF@MON MON -110 54.70% 4 WIN
BOS@PIT PIT -120 54.90% 3 LOSS
LA@STL STL -110 53.70% 3 WIN
LA@DAL DAL -125 56.40% 4 WIN
PIT@PHI PHI -116 54.20% 3 WIN
DET@MIN MIN -115 54.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@DET DET -130 58.00% 3 LOSS
DAL@LA UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 LOSS
LV@NJ LV -115 53.80% 3 WIN
DET@SEA LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.20% 4 WIN
STL@UTA UTA -125 58.30% 4 LOSS
NSH@BUF NSH -120 54.50% 4 LOSS
MIN@MON MATT BOLDY OVER 0.5 POINTS 55.60% 5 LOSS
ANA@SEA SEA -125 56.10% 3 LOSS
DAL@LV LV -120 55.00% 3 LOSS
VAN@STL STL -130 57.40% 4 LOSS
COL@NYR NYR -115 53.90% 3 LOSS
UTA@OTT OTT -120 54.90% 3 WIN
FLA@LV LV -123 56.00% 4 WIN
WAS@VAN WAS -114 53.50% 3 LOSS
FLA@SJ MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.80% 4 WIN
PIT@SEA SEA -114 54.80% 4 WIN
PHI@NYI BO HORVAT OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.70% 4 WIN
PHI@NYI OVER 5.5 54.60% 4 LOSS
OTT@BOS OVER 5.5 53.90% 3 LOSS
MON@DET DET -122 56.40% 4 WIN
BUF@CGY CGY -135 58.40% 4 WIN