Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
Prediction, Odds & Props
Apr 09 | NHL AI Picks
Updated: 2025-04-07T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 9, 2025, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. This pivotal late-season matchup could significantly influence the standings in the Atlantic Division.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Apr 09, 2025
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Amalie Arena
Lightning Record: (45-26)
Maple Leafs Record: (47-26)
OPENING ODDS
TOR Moneyline: +140
TB Moneyline: -166
TOR Spread: +1.5
TB Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 6
TOR
Betting Trends
- The Maple Leafs have been performing well against the spread (ATS), with a 4-1 record in their last five games.
TB
Betting Trends
- The Lightning have a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten games, demonstrating a solid performance in covering the spread.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last ten games, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs.
TOR vs. TB
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Guentzel over 2.5 Shots on Goal.
LIVE NHL ODDS
NHL ODDS COMPARISON
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Toronto vs Tampa Bay Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 4/9/25
The goaltending matchup will also be pivotal, as Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the league’s most formidable netminders, capable of single-handedly stealing games when locked in. If he’s dialed in and Tampa’s power play is clicking, the Maple Leafs could face a long night. However, if Toronto can contain the middle of the ice and get quality second-chance looks, they have the firepower to match Tampa stride-for-stride. This late-season clash is likely to come down to the finer details—puck management, special teams execution, and goaltending. Toronto’s aggressive offensive zone play can overwhelm if not checked early, but Tampa Bay has the defensive discipline and counterattacking ability to punish miscues. Momentum swings will be critical, and with both teams capable of scoring in bunches, one stretch of dominant play may decide the game. Discipline will also be key—both teams possess lethal power play units, and unnecessary penalties could shift the momentum irreversibly. Emotion and intensity should be high, as both sides know this game could serve as a psychological edge heading into the postseason. Expect fast-paced hockey, physical battles along the boards, and a playoff-like atmosphere. For fans, this is must-watch action; for the teams, it’s a chance to test their systems, composure, and readiness against one of the best in the league.
Back at it tomorrow @LGCanada | #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/3Ub8xLWSqP
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 9, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs arrive in Tampa with momentum and motivation, fueled by the desire to make a strong postseason push and silence the long-standing narrative of playoff underachievement. Under the guidance of head coach Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs have leaned into a faster, more aggressive brand of hockey, anchored by the stellar play of Auston Matthews. Matthews is once again among the league’s top goal scorers, combining elite release, physical strength, and sharp positioning to punish defenders and goaltenders alike. Alongside him, Mitch Marner continues to be the creative engine of the team, frequently dictating pace with his playmaking vision and knack for finding soft areas in defensive coverages. William Nylander’s consistent scoring and improved two-way play have added a critical layer of depth, while John Tavares remains a steady presence, especially in faceoffs and net-front battles. Collectively, this top-six group gives Toronto one of the most explosive offensive cores in the NHL. Despite their offensive prowess, the Maple Leafs have been challenged by stretches of defensive inconsistency, particularly when trying to protect leads or managing puck control under pressure. Their blue line, featuring Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Jake McCabe, has been serviceable but prone to lapses that elite teams like Tampa Bay can exploit. Communication and defensive zone structure will be critical for Toronto, especially against a multidimensional attack like the Lightning’s. One of the Leafs’ key variables is goaltending—Jack Campbell has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but his inconsistency remains a concern.
If Campbell brings his A-game, the Leafs can afford to trade chances and rely on their firepower; if not, they may struggle to recover from early deficits. His ability to stay composed under pressure and control rebounds will be a major factor in this game’s outcome. Special teams will be a defining battleground for the Maple Leafs in this matchup. Their power play, one of the most efficient in the league when Matthews, Marner, and Rielly are clicking, has the potential to tilt the ice and keep them competitive against anyone. However, their penalty kill has occasionally looked shaky, and against a team like Tampa with elite puck movement, discipline will be paramount. Toronto must stay out of the box and force Tampa into five-on-five play, where their pace and skill often shine. Playing on the road adds another layer of difficulty, especially at Amalie Arena where Tampa is typically dominant. Yet, the Leafs have shown a stronger mental edge this season, winning in tough buildings and finding ways to close out close games. For Toronto, this matchup is more than just about standings—it’s a psychological test against a team that has defined postseason success in recent years. A strong showing here would not only bolster confidence but could also set the tone for what lies ahead in April and beyond.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning enter this crucial matchup with a clear sense of identity and the confidence that comes from years of postseason experience and championship pedigree. Anchored by a core group of battle-hardened veterans, the Lightning continue to prove themselves as a resilient and dangerous opponent as the regular season nears its end. Nikita Kucherov remains the offensive catalyst, currently leading the team in points and creating consistent mismatches with his elite vision and puck-handling. Steven Stamkos, the ever-reliable captain, continues to contribute both offensively and as a leader in the locker room, while players like Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel have elevated their games with timely scoring and relentless energy. What sets Tampa apart is not just their ability to score, but how efficiently they transition from defense to offense. Their ability to turn a blocked shot into a breakout opportunity within seconds makes them deadly, especially in tight, high-stakes games like this one. Defensively, the Lightning remain anchored by the presence of Victor Hedman, whose blend of size, skating, and hockey IQ still places him among the NHL’s elite blueliners. He not only neutralizes opposing top lines but also acts as a second quarterback on the power play, distributing the puck with precision. Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak have also played important roles in shoring up the defensive zone, contributing both physicality and poise under pressure. But no discussion about Tampa Bay’s strength would be complete without mentioning Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose presence in net remains one of the team’s biggest advantages.
Known for his calm demeanor, sharp reflexes, and game-stealing ability, Vasilevskiy is once again rounding into postseason form, recently stringing together several high-save performances. At home, in front of a supportive crowd and familiar conditions, he becomes even harder to beat. Another strength Tampa will rely on is their special teams, particularly the power play, which has been lethal when clicking. With elite puck movement and multiple scoring threats, their man-advantage unit can change the game in mere seconds. On the penalty kill, they’ve tightened up significantly in recent weeks, showing a renewed commitment to blocking lanes and pressuring puck carriers. Tampa Bay also enjoys one of the more intimidating atmospheres in the league at Amalie Arena, where crowd energy often swings momentum in their favor. With the playoffs looming, the Lightning are treating every game as a tune-up for a deep run, and a victory against a divisional rival like Toronto would send a strong message. Their plan will revolve around disciplined structure, capitalizing on Toronto’s defensive lapses, and ensuring Vasilevskiy sees pucks cleanly. If they control the tempo early and frustrate Toronto’s top guns, Tampa Bay has every reason to expect a statement win on home ice.
The perfect guide doesn’t exi…
— x - Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) April 8, 2025
Enter to win: https://t.co/puzF41kThw pic.twitter.com/5aaIqyrJhC
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Prop Picks (AI)
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Maple Leafs and Lightning and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most watching on the trending emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Maple Leafs team going up against a possibly tired Lightning team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
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Below is our current AI Toronto vs Tampa Bay picks, computer picks Maple Leafs vs Lightning, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule.
Maple Leafs Betting Trends
The Maple Leafs have been performing well against the spread (ATS), with a 4-1 record in their last five games.
Lightning Betting Trends
The Lightning have a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten games, demonstrating a solid performance in covering the spread.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Matchup Trends
The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last ten games, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs.
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Game Info
What time does Toronto vs Tampa Bay start on April 09, 2025?
Toronto vs Tampa Bay starts on April 09, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.
Where is Toronto vs Tampa Bay being played?
Venue: Amalie Arena.
What are the opening odds for Toronto vs Tampa Bay?
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5
Moneyline: Toronto +140, Tampa Bay -166
Over/Under: 6
What are the records for Toronto vs Tampa Bay?
Toronto: (47-26) | Tampa Bay: (45-26)
What is the AI best bet for Toronto vs Tampa Bay?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Guentzel over 2.5 Shots on Goal.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Toronto vs Tampa Bay trending bets?
The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last ten games, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs.
What are Toronto trending bets?
TOR trend: The Maple Leafs have been performing well against the spread (ATS), with a 4-1 record in their last five games.
What are Tampa Bay trending bets?
TB trend: The Lightning have a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten games, demonstrating a solid performance in covering the spread.
Where can I find AI Picks for Toronto vs Tampa Bay?
See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Odds
Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Toronto vs Tampa Bay trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Toronto vs Tampa Bay Opening Odds
TOR Moneyline:
+140 TB Moneyline: -166
TOR Spread: +1.5
TB Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 6
Toronto vs Tampa Bay Live Odds
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U 6 (-112)
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+160
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U 5.5 (+100)
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Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Ottawa Senators
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+136
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O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
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Montreal Canadiens
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-130
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-1.5 (+180)
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O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
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+124
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O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
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NHL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on April 09, 2025 at Amalie Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
CAR@WAS | WAS +140 | 47.70% | 3 | WIN |
WPG@STL | STL -110 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
WPG@STL | UNDER 5.5 | 55.70% | 4 | LOSS |
CGY@LA | MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS | 53.10% | 3 | WIN |
TB@NYR | TB +110 | 49.80% | 3 | LOSS |
SJ@VAN | ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
BUF@TB | OVER 6.5 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
NYI@PHI | PHI -110 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
LV@EDM | RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 53.00% | 3 | WIN |
EDM@ANA | OVER 6 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
CAR@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
NYR@NJ | NJ -125 | 57.30% | 4 | WIN |
COL@CLB | OVER 6.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
LA@UTA | LA -125 | 54.70% | 3 | WIN |
WPG@LV | LV -120 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@NJ | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
NSH@PHI | PHI -120 | 55.00% | 3 | WIN |
OTT@BUF | OVER 6 | 54.00% | 3 | LOSS |
CHI@SJ | CHI +105 | 51.60% | 3 | LOSS |
WAS@LA | WAS +105 | 51.20% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@CAR | CAR -130 | 56.40% | 3 | WIN |
NSH@BOS | BOS -125 | 55.20% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@SEA | SEA -120 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
SJ@TOR | OVER 6 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
BUF@MON | MON -110 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@PIT | PIT -120 | 54.90% | 3 | LOSS |
LA@STL | STL -110 | 53.70% | 3 | WIN |
LA@DAL | DAL -125 | 56.40% | 4 | WIN |
PIT@PHI | PHI -116 | 54.20% | 3 | WIN |
DET@MIN | MIN -115 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@DET | DET -130 | 58.00% | 3 | LOSS |
DAL@LA | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | LOSS |
LV@NJ | LV -115 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
DET@SEA | LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
STL@UTA | UTA -125 | 58.30% | 4 | LOSS |
NSH@BUF | NSH -120 | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@MON | MATT BOLDY OVER 0.5 POINTS | 55.60% | 5 | LOSS |
ANA@SEA | SEA -125 | 56.10% | 3 | LOSS |
DAL@LV | LV -120 | 55.00% | 3 | LOSS |
VAN@STL | STL -130 | 57.40% | 4 | LOSS |
COL@NYR | NYR -115 | 53.90% | 3 | LOSS |
UTA@OTT | OTT -120 | 54.90% | 3 | WIN |
FLA@LV | LV -123 | 56.00% | 4 | WIN |
WAS@VAN | WAS -114 | 53.50% | 3 | LOSS |
FLA@SJ | MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
PIT@SEA | SEA -114 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYI | BO HORVAT OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYI | OVER 5.5 | 54.60% | 4 | LOSS |
OTT@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 53.90% | 3 | LOSS |
MON@DET | DET -122 | 56.40% | 4 | WIN |
BUF@CGY | CGY -135 | 58.40% | 4 | WIN |