Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
Prediction, Odds & Props
Apr 09 | NHL AI Picks

Updated: 2025-04-07T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 9, 2025, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. This pivotal late-season matchup could significantly influence the standings in the Atlantic Division.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Apr 09, 2025

Start Time: 7:00 PM EST​

Venue: Amalie Arena​

Lightning Record: (45-26)

Maple Leafs Record: (47-26)

OPENING ODDS

TOR Moneyline: +140

TB Moneyline: -166

TOR Spread: +1.5

TB Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 6

TOR
Betting Trends

  • The Maple Leafs have been performing well against the spread (ATS), with a 4-1 record in their last five games.

TB
Betting Trends

  • The Lightning have a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten games, demonstrating a solid performance in covering the spread.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last ten games, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs.

TOR vs. TB
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Guentzel over 2.5 Shots on Goal.

LIVE NHL ODDS

NHL ODDS COMPARISON

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Toronto vs Tampa Bay Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 4/9/25

The April 9th matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning is shaping up to be a thrilling contest with potential playoff seeding implications in the Eastern Conference. Both teams are perennial postseason contenders and bring high-octane offenses, elite-level talent, and strategic depth to the ice. The Maple Leafs, currently surging on the strength of Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring brilliance, are entering this game in strong form, winning four of their last five and finding ways to consistently generate offensive pressure. Matthews remains one of the NHL’s most prolific forwards, while linemates Mitch Marner and William Nylander are playing pivotal roles in Toronto’s balanced attack. With the postseason on the horizon, this game against a direct Atlantic Division rival like Tampa Bay offers more than just two points—it serves as a measuring stick for both clubs’ playoff readiness and potential first-round playoff preview. Toronto’s coaching staff will be emphasizing not only zone entry execution and forechecking intensity but also minimizing defensive breakdowns, which have periodically cost them against top-tier opponents. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is firmly entrenched as one of the NHL’s most battle-tested squads, boasting the playoff experience and veteran savvy that only years of success can build. The Lightning’s core of Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman continues to drive performance on both ends of the rink. While their offense remains deadly—especially on the man advantage—it’s their structured defense and transition game that can tilt contests in their favor, particularly at home in Amalie Arena where they’ve played exceptionally well.

The goaltending matchup will also be pivotal, as Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the league’s most formidable netminders, capable of single-handedly stealing games when locked in. If he’s dialed in and Tampa’s power play is clicking, the Maple Leafs could face a long night. However, if Toronto can contain the middle of the ice and get quality second-chance looks, they have the firepower to match Tampa stride-for-stride. This late-season clash is likely to come down to the finer details—puck management, special teams execution, and goaltending. Toronto’s aggressive offensive zone play can overwhelm if not checked early, but Tampa Bay has the defensive discipline and counterattacking ability to punish miscues. Momentum swings will be critical, and with both teams capable of scoring in bunches, one stretch of dominant play may decide the game. Discipline will also be key—both teams possess lethal power play units, and unnecessary penalties could shift the momentum irreversibly. Emotion and intensity should be high, as both sides know this game could serve as a psychological edge heading into the postseason. Expect fast-paced hockey, physical battles along the boards, and a playoff-like atmosphere. For fans, this is must-watch action; for the teams, it’s a chance to test their systems, composure, and readiness against one of the best in the league.

Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs arrive in Tampa with momentum and motivation, fueled by the desire to make a strong postseason push and silence the long-standing narrative of playoff underachievement. Under the guidance of head coach Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs have leaned into a faster, more aggressive brand of hockey, anchored by the stellar play of Auston Matthews. Matthews is once again among the league’s top goal scorers, combining elite release, physical strength, and sharp positioning to punish defenders and goaltenders alike. Alongside him, Mitch Marner continues to be the creative engine of the team, frequently dictating pace with his playmaking vision and knack for finding soft areas in defensive coverages. William Nylander’s consistent scoring and improved two-way play have added a critical layer of depth, while John Tavares remains a steady presence, especially in faceoffs and net-front battles. Collectively, this top-six group gives Toronto one of the most explosive offensive cores in the NHL. Despite their offensive prowess, the Maple Leafs have been challenged by stretches of defensive inconsistency, particularly when trying to protect leads or managing puck control under pressure. Their blue line, featuring Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Jake McCabe, has been serviceable but prone to lapses that elite teams like Tampa Bay can exploit. Communication and defensive zone structure will be critical for Toronto, especially against a multidimensional attack like the Lightning’s. One of the Leafs’ key variables is goaltending—Jack Campbell has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but his inconsistency remains a concern.

If Campbell brings his A-game, the Leafs can afford to trade chances and rely on their firepower; if not, they may struggle to recover from early deficits. His ability to stay composed under pressure and control rebounds will be a major factor in this game’s outcome. Special teams will be a defining battleground for the Maple Leafs in this matchup. Their power play, one of the most efficient in the league when Matthews, Marner, and Rielly are clicking, has the potential to tilt the ice and keep them competitive against anyone. However, their penalty kill has occasionally looked shaky, and against a team like Tampa with elite puck movement, discipline will be paramount. Toronto must stay out of the box and force Tampa into five-on-five play, where their pace and skill often shine. Playing on the road adds another layer of difficulty, especially at Amalie Arena where Tampa is typically dominant. Yet, the Leafs have shown a stronger mental edge this season, winning in tough buildings and finding ways to close out close games. For Toronto, this matchup is more than just about standings—it’s a psychological test against a team that has defined postseason success in recent years. A strong showing here would not only bolster confidence but could also set the tone for what lies ahead in April and beyond.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 9, 2025, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. This pivotal late-season matchup could significantly influence the standings in the Atlantic Division. Toronto vs Tampa Bay AI Prediction: Free NHL Betting Insights for Apr 09. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning enter this crucial matchup with a clear sense of identity and the confidence that comes from years of postseason experience and championship pedigree. Anchored by a core group of battle-hardened veterans, the Lightning continue to prove themselves as a resilient and dangerous opponent as the regular season nears its end. Nikita Kucherov remains the offensive catalyst, currently leading the team in points and creating consistent mismatches with his elite vision and puck-handling. Steven Stamkos, the ever-reliable captain, continues to contribute both offensively and as a leader in the locker room, while players like Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel have elevated their games with timely scoring and relentless energy. What sets Tampa apart is not just their ability to score, but how efficiently they transition from defense to offense. Their ability to turn a blocked shot into a breakout opportunity within seconds makes them deadly, especially in tight, high-stakes games like this one. Defensively, the Lightning remain anchored by the presence of Victor Hedman, whose blend of size, skating, and hockey IQ still places him among the NHL’s elite blueliners. He not only neutralizes opposing top lines but also acts as a second quarterback on the power play, distributing the puck with precision. Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak have also played important roles in shoring up the defensive zone, contributing both physicality and poise under pressure. But no discussion about Tampa Bay’s strength would be complete without mentioning Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose presence in net remains one of the team’s biggest advantages.

Known for his calm demeanor, sharp reflexes, and game-stealing ability, Vasilevskiy is once again rounding into postseason form, recently stringing together several high-save performances. At home, in front of a supportive crowd and familiar conditions, he becomes even harder to beat. Another strength Tampa will rely on is their special teams, particularly the power play, which has been lethal when clicking. With elite puck movement and multiple scoring threats, their man-advantage unit can change the game in mere seconds. On the penalty kill, they’ve tightened up significantly in recent weeks, showing a renewed commitment to blocking lanes and pressuring puck carriers. Tampa Bay also enjoys one of the more intimidating atmospheres in the league at Amalie Arena, where crowd energy often swings momentum in their favor. With the playoffs looming, the Lightning are treating every game as a tune-up for a deep run, and a victory against a divisional rival like Toronto would send a strong message. Their plan will revolve around disciplined structure, capitalizing on Toronto’s defensive lapses, and ensuring Vasilevskiy sees pucks cleanly. If they control the tempo early and frustrate Toronto’s top guns, Tampa Bay has every reason to expect a statement win on home ice.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Maple Leafs and Lightning play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Amalie Arena in Apr can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Guentzel over 2.5 Shots on Goal.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Maple Leafs and Lightning and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most watching on the trending emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Maple Leafs team going up against a possibly tired Lightning team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Toronto vs Tampa Bay picks, computer picks Maple Leafs vs Lightning, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Maple Leafs have been performing well against the spread (ATS), with a 4-1 record in their last five games.

Lightning Betting Trends

The Lightning have a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten games, demonstrating a solid performance in covering the spread.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Matchup Trends

The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last ten games, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Game Info

Toronto vs Tampa Bay starts on April 09, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.

Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5
Moneyline: Toronto +140, Tampa Bay -166
Over/Under: 6

Toronto: (47-26)  |  Tampa Bay: (45-26)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Guentzel over 2.5 Shots on Goal.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa Bay’s last ten games, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs.

TOR trend: The Maple Leafs have been performing well against the spread (ATS), with a 4-1 record in their last five games.

TB trend: The Lightning have a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten games, demonstrating a solid performance in covering the spread.

See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Toronto vs Tampa Bay trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Toronto vs Tampa Bay Opening Odds

TOR Moneyline: +140
TB Moneyline: -166
TOR Spread: +1.5
TB Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 6

Toronto vs Tampa Bay Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
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U 6 (-115)
Oct 7, 2025 8:10PM EDT
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10/7/25 8:10PM
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U 6 (-117)
Oct 7, 2025 10:40PM EDT
Colorado Avalanche
Los Angeles Kings
10/7/25 10:40PM
Avalanche
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-110
-110
-1.5 (+235)
+1.5 (-285)
O 5.5 (-117)
U 5.5 (-103)
Oct 8, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
10/8/25 7:10PM
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-160
 
-1.5 (+158)
O 5.5 (-128)
U 5.5 (+107)
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Boston Bruins
Washington Capitals
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+155
-180
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (+137)
O 5.5 (-112)
U 5.5 (-108)
Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
10/8/25 10:10PM
Flames
Oilers
+173
-205
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+122)
O 6 (-108)
U 6 (-112)
Oct 8, 2025 10:10PM EDT
Los Angeles Kings
Las Vegas Golden Knights
10/8/25 10:10PM
Kings
Golden Knights
+160
 
+1.5 (-163)
 
O 5.5 (-120)
U 5.5 (+100)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Ottawa Senators
Tampa Bay Lightning
10/9/25 7:10PM
Senators
Lightning
+136
-162
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
10/9/25 7:10PM
Canadiens
Red Wings
 
-130
 
-1.5 (+180)
O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Chicago Blackhawks
Boston Bruins
10/9/25 7:10PM
Blackhawks
Bruins
+124
-148
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Rangers
Buffalo Sabres
10/9/25 7:10PM
Rangers
Sabres
-120
+100
-1.5 (+210)
+1.5 (-258)
O 6.5 (+110)
U 6.5 (-130)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
10/9/25 7:10PM
Islanders
Penguins
-120
+100
-1.5 (+205)
+1.5 (-250)
O 5.5 (-125)
U 5.5 (+105)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
Philadelphia Flyers
Florida Panthers
10/9/25 7:10PM
Flyers
Panthers
+164
-198
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
O 5.5 (-110)
U 5.5 (-110)
Oct 9, 2025 7:10PM EDT
New Jersey Devils
Carolina Hurricanes
10/9/25 7:10PM
Devils
Hurricanes
+136
-162
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)
Oct 9, 2025 8:10PM EDT
Minnesota Wild
St Louis Blues
10/9/25 8:10PM
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-110
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+1.5 (-265)
-1.5 (+215)
O 5.5 (-115)
U 5.5 (-105)

NHL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on April 09, 2025 at Amalie Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
CAR@WAS WAS +140 47.70% 3 WIN
WPG@STL STL -110 54.80% 4 WIN
WPG@STL UNDER 5.5 55.70% 4 LOSS
CGY@LA MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS 53.10% 3 WIN
TB@NYR TB +110 49.80% 3 LOSS
SJ@VAN ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES 54.50% 4 LOSS
BUF@TB OVER 6.5 53.90% 3 WIN
NYI@PHI PHI -110 54.00% 3 WIN
LV@EDM RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL 53.00% 3 WIN
EDM@ANA OVER 6 54.20% 3 LOSS
CAR@BOS OVER 5.5 54.00% 3 WIN
NYR@NJ NJ -125 57.30% 4 WIN
COL@CLB OVER 6.5 53.80% 3 WIN
LA@UTA LA -125 54.70% 3 WIN
WPG@LV LV -120 54.80% 3 LOSS
MIN@NJ UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 WIN
NSH@PHI PHI -120 55.00% 3 WIN
OTT@BUF OVER 6 54.00% 3 LOSS
CHI@SJ CHI +105 51.60% 3 LOSS
WAS@LA WAS +105 51.20% 3 LOSS
TB@CAR CAR -130 56.40% 3 WIN
NSH@BOS BOS -125 55.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@SEA SEA -120 54.60% 3 LOSS
SJ@TOR OVER 6 54.80% 3 LOSS
BUF@MON MON -110 54.70% 4 WIN
BOS@PIT PIT -120 54.90% 3 LOSS
LA@STL STL -110 53.70% 3 WIN
LA@DAL DAL -125 56.40% 4 WIN
PIT@PHI PHI -116 54.20% 3 WIN
DET@MIN MIN -115 54.20% 3 LOSS
MIN@DET DET -130 58.00% 3 LOSS
DAL@LA UNDER 5.5 53.80% 3 LOSS
LV@NJ LV -115 53.80% 3 WIN
DET@SEA LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.20% 4 WIN
STL@UTA UTA -125 58.30% 4 LOSS
NSH@BUF NSH -120 54.50% 4 LOSS
MIN@MON MATT BOLDY OVER 0.5 POINTS 55.60% 5 LOSS
ANA@SEA SEA -125 56.10% 3 LOSS
DAL@LV LV -120 55.00% 3 LOSS
VAN@STL STL -130 57.40% 4 LOSS
COL@NYR NYR -115 53.90% 3 LOSS
UTA@OTT OTT -120 54.90% 3 WIN
FLA@LV LV -123 56.00% 4 WIN
WAS@VAN WAS -114 53.50% 3 LOSS
FLA@SJ MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.80% 4 WIN
PIT@SEA SEA -114 54.80% 4 WIN
PHI@NYI BO HORVAT OVER 0.5 POINTS 54.70% 4 WIN
PHI@NYI OVER 5.5 54.60% 4 LOSS
OTT@BOS OVER 5.5 53.90% 3 LOSS
MON@DET DET -122 56.40% 4 WIN
BUF@CGY CGY -135 58.40% 4 WIN