Golden Knights vs. Penguins
Prediction, Odds & Props
Mar 11 | NHL AI Picks
Updated: 2025-03-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Vegas Golden Knights (38-18-6) will face off against the Pittsburgh Penguins (24-30-11) on March 11, 2025, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. In their recent encounter on March 7, the Golden Knights secured a decisive 4-0 victory over the Penguins, showcasing their dominance on both ends of the ice.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Mar 11, 2025
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: PPG Paints Arena
Penguins Record: (25-31)
Golden Knights Record: (38-19)
OPENING ODDS
LV Moneyline: -211
PIT Moneyline: +174
LV Spread: -1.5
PIT Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 6
LV
Betting Trends
- Over the past ten games, the Penguins have struggled against the spread (ATS), covering in only 30% of those matchups. Their defensive vulnerabilities have been a significant factor, allowing an average of 3.9 goals per game during this stretch.
PIT
Betting Trends
- Conversely, the Golden Knights have been impressive ATS in their recent performances. They have covered the spread in 70% of their last ten games, bolstered by a robust offense averaging 3.0 goals per game and a defense conceding just 2.5 goals per game. 
MATCHUP TRENDS
- An intriguing ATS statistic for this matchup is the teams’ combined goal-scoring trend. In their last two meetings, the total goals scored have not surpassed the 6.5 line, suggesting a potential under bet for total goals in this upcoming game.
LV vs. PIT
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. McNabb over 0.5 Goals Scored
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Vegas vs Pittsburgh Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 3/11/25
Defensively, Pittsburgh’s challenges are pronounced. They rank 31st in the league, conceding an average of 3.63 goals per game. Goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic has struggled to find consistency, reflected in his 12-13-5 record, 3.14 GAA, and .892 save percentage. The defensive unit, led by Kris Letang, has been unable to provide the necessary support, often leaving goaltenders vulnerable to high-danger scoring chances. Special teams have also been a mixed bag for the Penguins; while their power play operates at a respectable 23.9%, their penalty kill has been less effective, often failing to neutralize opposing power plays. For the upcoming game, the Penguins will need to address these defensive lapses and find ways to generate offense beyond their top performers. The potential return of injured players could provide a boost, but a collective commitment to disciplined play and strategic adjustments will be imperative. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, will aim to replicate their previous success by leveraging their offensive depth and maintaining defensive solidity. Players like Jack Eichel, who leads the team with 74 points (20 goals and 54 assists), will be pivotal in breaking down Pittsburgh’s defense. In summary, this matchup is a critical juncture for both teams. The Golden Knights will look to solidify their position atop the Pacific Division, while the Penguins aim to halt their downward spiral and regain some semblance of competitiveness. Given the current form and statistical disparities, Vegas enters the game as the favorite. However, hockey’s unpredictable nature means Pittsburgh cannot be entirely counted out, especially with the home-ice advantage and the potential for a resurgence from their seasoned leaders.
A little bit of everything from VGK Insider @garylawless today 📓 https://t.co/NHbKxU0W4J
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) March 8, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights NHL Preview
The Vegas Golden Knights continue to prove why they are one of the top teams in the Western Conference. With a 38-18-6 record, they sit firmly in a playoff position and have their sights set on another deep postseason run. Their success has been driven by a balanced attack, a well-structured defensive system, and solid goaltending, making them one of the most complete teams in the NHL. Heading into their matchup against the struggling Pittsburgh Penguins, Vegas will look to extend its winning ways and secure another key victory. Vegas has been an offensive powerhouse, averaging 3.33 goals per game, ranking them sixth in the league. Their ability to generate offense stems from their deep roster, with multiple players capable of contributing. Jack Eichel has been the driving force behind their attack, leading the team with 74 points (20 goals and 54 assists). His combination of speed, skill, and hockey IQ makes him a constant threat whenever he is on the ice. Alongside him, Mark Stone has been instrumental, not only providing offensive production but also excelling in defensive responsibilities. Stone, fresh off a three-point performance in their last meeting against Pittsburgh, will once again be a key player to watch. Another factor that makes Vegas dangerous is their ability to roll four strong lines. The depth of their forward group allows them to maintain pressure on opponents throughout the game.
Players like Jonathan Marchessault (31 goals, 26 assists) and Chandler Stephenson (50 points) add additional offensive firepower. This balanced attack forces opposing defenses to stay on high alert, as any line can capitalize on mistakes. Defensively, the Golden Knights have been one of the stingiest teams in the NHL, allowing just 2.72 goals per game (7th best in the league). They have a solid defensive core led by Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, who not only excel in their own zone but also contribute offensively. Their ability to break up plays, transition the puck quickly, and limit high-danger scoring chances makes life easier for their goaltenders. Speaking of goaltending, Adin Hill has emerged as the team’s No. 1 option, boasting a 23-10-4 record with a 2.50 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage. He has been reliable in key moments, giving Vegas the confidence that he can hold the fort when necessary. Backup Logan Thompson has also been solid when called upon, ensuring the Golden Knights have a dependable tandem in net. In their previous matchup against the Penguins, Vegas completely dominated, securing a 4-0 shutout. They controlled possession, limited Pittsburgh’s scoring chances, and capitalized on their own opportunities. If they replicate that performance, they should have no trouble securing another win. Heading into this game, the Golden Knights will look to maintain their disciplined play and avoid any letdowns. As a team with championship aspirations, they must continue building momentum as the playoffs approach. With a strong, well-rounded roster, they enter this contest as heavy favorites and will look to impose their will early to secure another two points.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Preview
The Pittsburgh Penguins are enduring a challenging 2024-2025 NHL season, marked by inconsistency and underperformance. With a record of 24-30-11, they find themselves at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division, a stark contrast to their historically competitive stature. Several factors have contributed to this downturn, necessitating a comprehensive analysis. Offensively, the Penguins have struggled to find rhythm and consistency. Averaging 2.86 goals per game, they rank 18th in the leaue, indicating a significant drop from their usual offensive prowess. Sidney Crosby remains the team’s linchpin, leading with 66 points, comprising 19 goals and 47 assists. Rickard Rakell has been a notable contributor, leading the team with 29 goals and adding 23 assists, totaling 52 points. However, beyond these individual performances, the team lacks depth in scoring. Evgeni Malkin, traditionally a key offensive player, has seen a decline, recording 41 points with 12 goals and 29 assists. This scarcity of secondary scoring has rendered the Penguins’ offense predictable and easier to defend against. Defensively, the situation is more concerning. The Penguins have conceded 232 goals, averaging 3.63 goals against per game, placing them 31st in the NHL. Goaltending has been a significant issue, with Alex Nedeljkovic posting a 12-13-5 record, a 3.14 GAA, and a .892 save percentage. His recent performances have been inconsistent, reflecting the broader defensive struggles of the team. The defensive corps, led by veterans like Kris Letang, has been unable to provide stability, often leaving goaltenders exposed to high-danger scoring opportunities. Special teams’ performance has been a mixed aspect of the Penguins’ season. Their power play operates at 23.9%, a respectable figure that has provided some offensive respite. However, their penalty kill has been less effective, often failing to neutralize opposing power plays, which has been detrimental in closely contested games. Recent form further exacerbates concerns. The Penguins have lost eight of their last nine games, averaging 2.7 goals per game while allowing 3.9. Their recent 4-0 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on March 7 was emblematic of their struggles, as they were outplayed in all facets. Defensive breakdowns, an inability to generate sustained offensive pressure, and goaltending inconsistencies all contributed to their downfall.
The lack of depth scoring has particularly hurt the Penguins, making them reliant on Crosby, Rakell, and a few others to carry the offensive load. If Pittsburgh hopes to turn things around in the rematch, they will need contributions from their second and third lines, as well as a much-improved effort on the defensive end. Heading into this game, the Penguins must focus on tightening up their defensive structure and limiting high-danger chances against. A key area of concern has been their inability to clear rebounds and win puck battles in their own zone. Opponents have exploited this weakness, leading to extended offensive zone time and numerous scoring opportunities. The coaching staff may look to make adjustments, such as more aggressive forechecking or line shuffling, in an attempt to spark a turnaround. Another key factor will be the performance of their goaltender, likely Alex Nedeljkovic, who has struggled in recent outings. He will need to be at his best against a Vegas team that has shown an ability to capitalize on mistakes. If Nedeljkovic falters early, the Penguins may need to turn to backup Magnus Hellberg, though he has seen limited action this season. Offensively, Pittsburgh must find a way to solve the Golden Knights’ defensive structure. Vegas plays a disciplined game, rarely giving up odd-man rushes or breakaway opportunities. The Penguins will need to create traffic in front of the net, capitalize on any power-play opportunities, and be more aggressive in generating second-chance opportunities. If they can find ways to disrupt Vegas’s defensive setup, they may be able to create scoring chances and put pressure on the Golden Knights’ netminder. This game also serves as an opportunity for the Penguins to regain some confidence and momentum. With the playoffs looking increasingly unlikely, they must focus on finishing the season strong and assessing which players could play key roles in the future. Younger players and depth forwards will need to step up if Pittsburgh hopes to be competitive in this matchup. Overall, the Penguins enter this game as clear underdogs. Their recent form, defensive struggles, and lack of scoring depth make it difficult to envision a scenario where they dominate the Golden Knights. However, if they can correct some of their defensive lapses, get a strong goaltending performance, and capitalize on their scoring chances, they could make this game more competitive than their previous meeting. This contest will be a test of their resilience, and how they respond could provide insight into their character and future prospects.
The Penguins have re-assigned defenseman Jack St. Ivany to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (AHL). pic.twitter.com/ro2nxHeeKH
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) March 8, 2025
Vegas vs. Pittsburgh Prop Picks (AI)
Vegas vs. Pittsburgh Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every facet between the Golden Knights and Penguins and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most fixated on the growing weight human bettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Golden Knights team going up against a possibly unhealthy Penguins team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Vegas vs Pittsburgh picks, computer picks Golden Knights vs Penguins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule.
Golden Knights Betting Trends
Over the past ten games, the Penguins have struggled against the spread (ATS), covering in only 30% of those matchups. Their defensive vulnerabilities have been a significant factor, allowing an average of 3.9 goals per game during this stretch.
Penguins Betting Trends
Conversely, the Golden Knights have been impressive ATS in their recent performances. They have covered the spread in 70% of their last ten games, bolstered by a robust offense averaging 3.0 goals per game and a defense conceding just 2.5 goals per game. 
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Matchup Trends
An intriguing ATS statistic for this matchup is the teams’ combined goal-scoring trend. In their last two meetings, the total goals scored have not surpassed the 6.5 line, suggesting a potential under bet for total goals in this upcoming game.
Vegas vs. Pittsburgh Game Info
What time does Vegas vs Pittsburgh start on March 11, 2025?
Vegas vs Pittsburgh starts on March 11, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.
Where is Vegas vs Pittsburgh being played?
Venue: PPG Paints Arena.
What are the opening odds for Vegas vs Pittsburgh?
Spread: Pittsburgh +1.5
Moneyline: Vegas -211, Pittsburgh +174
Over/Under: 6
What are the records for Vegas vs Pittsburgh?
Vegas: (38-19) | Pittsburgh: (25-31)
What is the AI best bet for Vegas vs Pittsburgh?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. McNabb over 0.5 Goals Scored. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Vegas vs Pittsburgh trending bets?
An intriguing ATS statistic for this matchup is the teams’ combined goal-scoring trend. In their last two meetings, the total goals scored have not surpassed the 6.5 line, suggesting a potential under bet for total goals in this upcoming game.
What are Vegas trending bets?
LV trend: Over the past ten games, the Penguins have struggled against the spread (ATS), covering in only 30% of those matchups. Their defensive vulnerabilities have been a significant factor, allowing an average of 3.9 goals per game during this stretch.
What are Pittsburgh trending bets?
PIT trend: Conversely, the Golden Knights have been impressive ATS in their recent performances. They have covered the spread in 70% of their last ten games, bolstered by a robust offense averaging 3.0 goals per game and a defense conceding just 2.5 goals per game. 
Where can I find AI Picks for Vegas vs Pittsburgh?
See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Vegas vs. Pittsburgh Odds
Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Vegas vs Pittsburgh trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Vegas vs Pittsburgh Opening Odds
LV Moneyline:
-211 PIT Moneyline: +174
LV Spread: -1.5
PIT Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 6
Vegas vs Pittsburgh Live Odds
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Los Angeles Kings
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+155
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U 5.5 (+100)
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O 6 (-115)
U 6 (-101)
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-125
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O 6.5 (+112)
U 6.5 (-128)
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Chicago Blackhawks
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+125
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O 5.5 (-115)
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NHL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Vegas Golden Knights vs. Pittsburgh Penguins on March 11, 2025 at PPG Paints Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
CAR@WAS | WAS +140 | 47.70% | 3 | WIN |
WPG@STL | STL -110 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
WPG@STL | UNDER 5.5 | 55.70% | 4 | LOSS |
CGY@LA | MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS | 53.10% | 3 | WIN |
TB@NYR | TB +110 | 49.80% | 3 | LOSS |
SJ@VAN | ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
BUF@TB | OVER 6.5 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
NYI@PHI | PHI -110 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
LV@EDM | RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 53.00% | 3 | WIN |
EDM@ANA | OVER 6 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
CAR@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
NYR@NJ | NJ -125 | 57.30% | 4 | WIN |
COL@CLB | OVER 6.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
LA@UTA | LA -125 | 54.70% | 3 | WIN |
WPG@LV | LV -120 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@NJ | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
NSH@PHI | PHI -120 | 55.00% | 3 | WIN |
OTT@BUF | OVER 6 | 54.00% | 3 | LOSS |
CHI@SJ | CHI +105 | 51.60% | 3 | LOSS |
WAS@LA | WAS +105 | 51.20% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@CAR | CAR -130 | 56.40% | 3 | WIN |
NSH@BOS | BOS -125 | 55.20% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@SEA | SEA -120 | 54.60% | 3 | LOSS |
SJ@TOR | OVER 6 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
BUF@MON | MON -110 | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
BOS@PIT | PIT -120 | 54.90% | 3 | LOSS |
LA@STL | STL -110 | 53.70% | 3 | WIN |
LA@DAL | DAL -125 | 56.40% | 4 | WIN |
PIT@PHI | PHI -116 | 54.20% | 3 | WIN |
DET@MIN | MIN -115 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
MIN@DET | DET -130 | 58.00% | 3 | LOSS |
DAL@LA | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | LOSS |
LV@NJ | LV -115 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
DET@SEA | LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.20% | 4 | WIN |
STL@UTA | UTA -125 | 58.30% | 4 | LOSS |
NSH@BUF | NSH -120 | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@MON | MATT BOLDY OVER 0.5 POINTS | 55.60% | 5 | LOSS |
ANA@SEA | SEA -125 | 56.10% | 3 | LOSS |
DAL@LV | LV -120 | 55.00% | 3 | LOSS |
VAN@STL | STL -130 | 57.40% | 4 | LOSS |
COL@NYR | NYR -115 | 53.90% | 3 | LOSS |
UTA@OTT | OTT -120 | 54.90% | 3 | WIN |
FLA@LV | LV -123 | 56.00% | 4 | WIN |
WAS@VAN | WAS -114 | 53.50% | 3 | LOSS |
FLA@SJ | MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
PIT@SEA | SEA -114 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYI | BO HORVAT OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.70% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYI | OVER 5.5 | 54.60% | 4 | LOSS |
OTT@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 53.90% | 3 | LOSS |
MON@DET | DET -122 | 56.40% | 4 | WIN |
BUF@CGY | CGY -135 | 58.40% | 4 | WIN |