Sabres vs Lightning Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NHL Lines & Props (Mar 06)
Updated: 2025-03-04T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Buffalo Sabres are set to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 6, 2025, at Amalie Arena in Tampa. Both teams aim to improve their standings as the season progresses.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Mar 06, 2025
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST
Venue: Amalie Arena
Lightning Record: (36-21)
Sabres Record: (24-30)
OPENING ODDS
BUF Moneyline: +188
TB Moneyline: -229
BUF Spread: +1.5
TB Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 6.5
BUF
Betting Trends
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the spread in 24 of their 52 games this season, resulting in a 46.2% cover rate. On the road, they have covered the spread in 12 of 26 games, equating to a 46.2% cover rate.
TB
Betting Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the spread in 29 of their 54 games this season, yielding a 53.7% cover rate. At home, they have covered the spread in 15 of 27 games, translating to a 55.6% cover rate.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Lightning have covered the spread three times, while the Sabres have covered it twice.
BUF vs. TB
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Zucker over 0.5 Goals Scored
LIVE NHL ODDS
NHL ODDS COMPARISON
WANT MORE AI PICKS?
VS. SPREAD
341-258
NET UNITS
(INCL VIG)
+373.5
NET PROFIT
(INCL VIG)
$100/UNIT
$37,349
VS. SPREAD
1598-1366
NET UNITS
(INCL VIG)
+376.6
NET PROFIT
(INCL VIG)
$100/UNIT
$37,657
AI SPORTS PICK PRODUCTS
Create a Free Account
‘Create an Account’ to Get Remi’s Picks Today. Remi Finds New Picks
Remi calculates the probability a team will cover the line. Remi Works 24/7
Remi uses this probability to assign units to each pick.
Get Remi's AI Picks
Get Remi’s Top AI Sports Picks sent direct to your inbox.
Hedge Meaning in Betting | 4 Obvious Times to Hedge
Learn about hedge betting to manage risk and secure profits. Understand...
What is a Push in Betting? | 3 Ways To Use To Your Advantage
Understand what a push in betting means, how it happens in...
What Does the + and – Mean in Sports Betting? | 5 Easy Tips
Learn the basics of sports betting odds, what the plus (+)...
Buffalo vs Tampa Bay Prediction & Odds:
Free NHL Betting Insights for 3/6/25
Their recent form has been impressive, winning four of their last five games. A notable victory includes a 6-2 triumph over the Columbus Blue Jackets on March 4, 2025, showcasing their offensive firepower. The Lightning’s offense has been potent, averaging 3.2 goals per game. Nikita Kucherov has been the catalyst, leading the team with 32 goals and 58 assists, amassing 90 points. Brayden Point has also been instrumental, contributing 30 goals and 35 assists. Their power play has been particularly lethal, converting at a league-leading 28.9% success rate, making them a constant threat with the man advantage. Defensively, the Lightning have been solid, allowing an average of 2.7 goals per game. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been stellar between the pipes, recording a .923 save percentage. The defensive corps, led by veterans like Ryan McDonagh, has been effective in limiting high-quality scoring opportunities and maintaining structural integrity in their zone. Their penalty kill has also been efficient, operating at an 83.0% success rate, ranking them among the top teams in the league. Historically, the Lightning have had the upper hand in this matchup. In their last ten meetings, Tampa Bay has emerged victorious in six encounters, while Buffalo has won four. The most recent meeting on January 20, 2024, saw the Lightning secure a 3-1 victory at Amalie Arena, with Kucherov contributing a goal and an assist. From a betting perspective, the Lightning have been reliable against the spread (ATS) this season. They have covered the spread in 29 of their 54 games, yielding a 53.7% cover rate. At home, they have been particularly strong, covering the spread in 15 of 27 games, translating to a 55.6% cover rate. Conversely, the Sabres have struggled ATS, covering in only 24 of their 52 games, resulting in a 46.2% cover rate. On the road, their ATS record mirrors their overall performance, with a 46.2% cover rate. In conclusion, this matchup heavily favors the Tampa Bay Lightning, given their superior record, offensive prowess, and defensive solidity. The Sabres will need to address their defensive lapses and find secondary scoring to stand a chance against a formidable Lightning squad. Fans can expect an intense game as both teams vie for crucial points in this late-season encounter.
You heard the man 🍻 pic.twitter.com/eK5Z5dtVoY
— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) March 5, 2025
Buffalo Sabres NHL Preview
The Buffalo Sabres enter this matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning looking to turn their season around as they continue their battle in the Atlantic Division. With a record of 24 wins, 28 losses, and 8 overtime losses as of March 6, 2025, the Sabres find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture, needing a strong push down the stretch to stay in contention. Their recent struggles have made this game even more critical, as they look to break a four-game losing streak and prove that they can compete with one of the NHL’s top teams. Offensively, the Sabres have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled with consistency. They are averaging 2.6 goals per game, a number that places them in the bottom third of the league. Their offensive production is led by Tage Thompson, who has recorded 30 goals and 23 assists, totaling 53 points this season. Thompson has been a key driver of Buffalo’s offense, using his size and skill to create scoring opportunities. However, beyond Thompson, the Sabres have had difficulty finding reliable secondary scoring. Dylan Cozens has contributed with 21 goals and 26 assists, but the team has lacked consistent production from its depth forwards, which has been a major issue. One of the biggest concerns for Buffalo has been their struggles on the power play. Operating at just 18.5% efficiency, their power play ranks near the bottom of the league. Their inability to capitalize on man-advantage situations has cost them in close games, as they have failed to convert on crucial opportunities. To be competitive against the Lightning, they will need to improve in this area and take advantage of any power-play chances they receive. Defensively, the Sabres have had major issues, allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game. Their defensive corps has struggled with consistency, often giving up high-danger scoring chances and failing to clear the front of the net. Rasmus Dahlin continues to be their best defenseman, contributing 12 goals and 41 assists while playing heavy minutes in all situations. However, the rest of the blue line has been inconsistent, with young defensemen like Owen Power and Henri Jokiharju experiencing growing pains. Defensive breakdowns and poor puck management have led to costly mistakes, something the Sabres will need to address against Tampa Bay’s high-powered offense. Goaltending has been another area of concern for Buffalo. James Reimer has been the primary starter, posting a .903 save percentage and a 3.15 goals-against average. While he has had moments of brilliance, he has not received much defensive support in front of him, making it difficult to sustain strong performances. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has also seen time in net, but neither goaltender has been able to provide the level of consistency needed to keep Buffalo competitive in close games. Looking at their recent form, the Sabres have lost four straight games, including a disappointing 6-2 defeat against the San Jose Sharks on March 4, 2025. Their defensive struggles were on full display in that game, as they allowed numerous high-danger chances and failed to contain San Jose’s offensive attack. If they hope to compete against Tampa Bay, they will need a much stronger defensive effort and better goaltending. The betting trends also do not favor the Sabres in this matchup. They have covered the spread in just 46.2% of their games this season, and their road record is equally unimpressive. In contrast, the Lightning have been strong at home, covering the spread in 55.6% of their home games. The Sabres’ recent struggles against Tampa Bay further highlight the challenge ahead, as they have lost six of their last ten meetings with the Lightning. Despite these challenges, the Sabres have the talent to compete if they can put together a complete effort. Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens will need to step up offensively, while the defense must play a much tighter game to keep Tampa Bay’s attack in check. Goaltending will also be a major factor, as Buffalo will need a strong performance from Reimer or Luukkonen to have a chance at pulling off an upset. Ultimately, the Sabres enter this game as underdogs, but they have the potential to surprise if they can correct their defensive issues and capitalize on their offensive opportunities. A strong showing against the Lightning could be the spark they need to turn their season around, but they will have to bring their best effort against one of the most well-rounded teams in the league.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Preview
Veteran defenseman Ryan McDonagh anchors the blue line, providing leadership and stability. His experience in high-pressure situations has been invaluable to the team, particularly in matchups against aggressive offensive opponents. Alongside him, Mikhail Sergachev has emerged as a key two-way defenseman, contributing offensively while maintaining a strong defensive presence. His ability to jump into the play and generate scoring chances makes him a crucial asset to the Lightning’s transition game. Erik Cernak and Victor Hedman round out Tampa Bay’s defensive core, providing a solid combination of physicality, shot-blocking, and puck-moving ability. Hedman, a Norris Trophy-winning defenseman, continues to be a force on the ice, logging heavy minutes in all situations. His ability to dictate play from the back end gives the Lightning an edge, particularly in close games where defensive discipline is key. The Lightning’s blue line has been effective at limiting high-danger scoring chances, which has been instrumental in their strong defensive numbers. In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the most dominant netminders in the NHL. The former Vezina Trophy winner boasts a .923 save percentage and a 2.41 goals-against average this season, reinforcing his status as an elite goaltender. His ability to make clutch saves, particularly in tight situations, gives the Lightning a significant advantage over most opponents. Whether facing breakaways, odd-man rushes, or point-blank shots, Vasilevskiy consistently delivers, often keeping Tampa Bay in games even when they are outplayed. His positioning, quick reflexes, and mental toughness make him the backbone of the team’s defensive efforts. The Lightning’s penalty kill has also been a strength, operating at an 83.0% success rate. This efficiency allows them to neutralize opposing power plays effectively, mitigating the impact of penalties. With strong defensive zone coverage and aggressive forechecking while shorthanded, the Lightning have minimized the damage caused by opposing special teams. Beyond individual performances, Tampa Bay benefits from a well-coached and disciplined system. Head coach Jon Cooper continues to implement a balanced approach that prioritizes both offensive production and defensive responsibility. His ability to make in-game adjustments has been crucial in close contests, and his leadership has played a significant role in the team’s sustained success. Under his guidance, the Lightning maintain a structured yet dynamic playstyle that allows them to adapt to different opponents. Looking at their recent performance, the Lightning have been in excellent form. They have won four of their last five games, showcasing both offensive dominance and defensive resilience. Their most recent victory, a commanding 6-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, highlighted their ability to capitalize on scoring chances while maintaining defensive discipline. Heading into their matchup against the Buffalo Sabres, the Lightning hold a clear advantage. They have historically performed well against Buffalo, winning six of their last ten meetings. Their superior depth, elite goaltending, and offensive firepower make them the clear favorites. However, they cannot afford to underestimate the Sabres, who will be desperate to break their losing streak and pull off an upset. Ultimately, the Lightning’s focus will be on executing their game plan, leveraging their strengths, and maintaining their momentum as they push toward the playoffs. If they continue playing at their current level, they should secure another crucial victory at Amalie Arena.
“I rather have a lineup full of good players than a bank of a ton of draft picks.”
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) March 5, 2025
More from Julien BriseBois’ media availability: https://t.co/3NwvgAHbyu pic.twitter.com/rsxuHaeTgJ
Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay Prop Picks (AI)
Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over mountains of data from every simulation between the Sabres and Lightning and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Interestingly enough, the data has been most fixated on the trending factor human bettors regularly put on player performance factors between a Sabres team going up against a possibly improved Lightning team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NHL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Buffalo vs Tampa Bay picks, computer picks Sabres vs Lightning, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NHL schedule.
Sabres Betting Trends
The Buffalo Sabres have covered the spread in 24 of their 52 games this season, resulting in a 46.2% cover rate. On the road, they have covered the spread in 12 of 26 games, equating to a 46.2% cover rate.
Lightning Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the spread in 29 of their 54 games this season, yielding a 53.7% cover rate. At home, they have covered the spread in 15 of 27 games, translating to a 55.6% cover rate.
Sabres vs. Lightning Matchup Trends
In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Lightning have covered the spread three times, while the Sabres have covered it twice.
Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay Game Info
What time does Buffalo vs Tampa Bay start on March 06, 2025?
Buffalo vs Tampa Bay starts on March 06, 2025 at 8:00 PM EST.
Where is Buffalo vs Tampa Bay being played?
Venue: Amalie Arena.
What are the opening odds for Buffalo vs Tampa Bay?
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5
Moneyline: Buffalo +188, Tampa Bay -229
Over/Under: 6.5
What are the records for Buffalo vs Tampa Bay?
Buffalo: (24-30) | Tampa Bay: (36-21)
What is the AI best bet for Buffalo vs Tampa Bay?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Zucker over 0.5 Goals Scored. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Buffalo vs Tampa Bay trending bets?
In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Lightning have covered the spread three times, while the Sabres have covered it twice.
What are Buffalo trending bets?
BUF trend: The Buffalo Sabres have covered the spread in 24 of their 52 games this season, resulting in a 46.2% cover rate. On the road, they have covered the spread in 12 of 26 games, equating to a 46.2% cover rate.
What are Tampa Bay trending bets?
TB trend: The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the spread in 29 of their 54 games this season, yielding a 53.7% cover rate. At home, they have covered the spread in 15 of 27 games, translating to a 55.6% cover rate.
Where can I find AI Picks for Buffalo vs Tampa Bay?
See our latest NHL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Buffalo vs Tampa Bay trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Buffalo vs Tampa Bay Opening Odds
BUF Moneyline:
+188 TB Moneyline: -229
BUF Spread: +1.5
TB Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 6.5
Buffalo vs Tampa Bay Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nov 9, 2025 1:10PM EST
Chicago Blackhawks
Detroit Red Wings
11/9/25 1:10PM
Blackhawks
Red Wings
|
–
–
|
+150
-186
|
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+135)
|
O 6 (-124)
U 6 (+100)
|
|
|
Nov 9, 2025 2:10PM EST
Los Angeles Kings
Pittsburgh Penguins
11/9/25 2:10PM
Kings
Penguins
|
–
–
|
-159
+128
|
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-195)
|
O 6 (-122)
U 6 (+100)
|
|
|
Nov 9, 2025 7:10PM EST
Seattle Kraken
Dallas Stars
11/9/25 7:10PM
Kraken
Stars
|
–
–
|
+195
-250
|
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (+108)
|
O 6.5 (+102)
U 6.5 (-125)
|
|
|
Nov 9, 2025 7:10PM EST
Carolina Hurricanes
Toronto Maple Leafs
11/9/25 7:10PM
Hurricanes
Maple Leafs
|
–
–
|
-132
+106
|
-1.5 (+188)
+1.5 (-240)
|
O 6.5 (-107)
U 6.5 (-117)
|
|
|
Nov 9, 2025 8:10PM EST
Calgary Flames
Minnesota Wild
11/9/25 8:10PM
Flames
Wild
|
–
–
|
+145
-182
|
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+138)
|
O 6 (-108)
U 6 (-115)
|
|
|
Nov 9, 2025 10:10PM EST
Colorado Avalanche
Vancouver Canucks
11/9/25 10:10PM
Avalanche
Canucks
|
–
–
|
-180
+143
|
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-177)
|
O 6 (-118)
U 6 (-105)
|
|
|
Nov 9, 2025 10:10PM EST
Winnipeg Jets
Anaheim Ducks
11/9/25 10:10PM
Jets
Ducks
|
–
–
|
-148
+117
|
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-210)
|
O 6 (-115)
U 6 (-108)
|
NHL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on March 06, 2025 at Amalie Arena.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NHL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
| LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@TOR | OVER 6.5 | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| VAN@NSH | OVER 5.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
| NJ@ANA | ANA +110 | 44.8% | 1 | WIN |
| DET@ANA | DET -100 | 51.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| NYI@CAR | UNDER 6.5 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| WPG@MIN | WPG -115 | 56.4% | 4 | WIN |
| NYI@BOS | UNDER 6.5 | 55.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| MIN@NYR | OVER 5.5 | 54.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| ANA@CHI | ANA -125 | 56.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| MIN@WAS | WAS -120 | 56.2% | 3 | WIN |
| WPG@PHI | WPG -132 | 56.7% | 3 | WIN |
| NYR@TOR | TOR -133 | 58.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CGY@UTA | OVER 6 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| OTT@BUF | OTT -108 | 53.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| FLA@DET | AARON EKBLAD OVER 0.5 POINTS | 54.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| LA@MIN | LA -110 | 56.0% | 5 | LOSS |
| STL@VAN | VAN -121 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| BUF@BOS | BOS -114 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
| ANA@SEA | SEA -125 | 54.2% | 3 | WIN |
| ANA@SEA | TROY TERRY OVER 0.5 POINTS | 53.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| BOS@WAS | ALEX OVECHKIN TO SCORE A GOAL | 41.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| FLA@EDM | MATTHEW TKACHUK OVER 0.5 ASSTS | 53.70% | 3 | WIN |
| FLA@EDM | RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
| EDM@FLA | ALEKSANDER BARKOV UNDER 11.5 FACEOFFS WON | 53.00% | 3 | LOSS |
| EDM@FLA | ALEKSANDER BARKOV UNDER 20.5 MINUTES ON THE ICE | 54.00% | 4 | LOSS |
| EDM@DAL | DAL -110 | 53.80% | 3 | LOSS |
| EDM@DAL | DAL -125 | 56.70% | 3 | WIN |
| TOR@FLA | MAX PACIORETTY UNDER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 55.60% | 5 | LOSS |
| TOR@FLA | WILLIAM NYLANDER UNDER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 54.90% | 4 | LOSS |
| CAR@WAS | WAS +140 | 47.70% | 3 | WIN |
| WPG@STL | STL -110 | 54.80% | 4 | WIN |
| WPG@STL | UNDER 5.5 | 55.70% | 4 | LOSS |
| CGY@LA | MACKENZIE WEEGAR OVER 2.5 BLOCKS | 53.10% | 3 | WIN |
| TB@NYR | TB +110 | 49.80% | 3 | LOSS |
| SJ@VAN | ALEXANDER GEORGIEV UNDER 24.5 SAVES | 54.50% | 4 | LOSS |
| BUF@TB | OVER 6.5 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
| NYI@PHI | PHI -110 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
| LV@EDM | RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL | 53.00% | 3 | WIN |
| EDM@ANA | OVER 6 | 54.20% | 3 | LOSS |
| CAR@BOS | OVER 5.5 | 54.00% | 3 | WIN |
| NYR@NJ | NJ -125 | 57.30% | 4 | WIN |
| COL@CLB | OVER 6.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
| LA@UTA | LA -125 | 54.70% | 3 | WIN |
| WPG@LV | LV -120 | 54.80% | 3 | LOSS |
| MIN@NJ | UNDER 5.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
| NSH@PHI | PHI -120 | 55.00% | 3 | WIN |
| OTT@BUF | OVER 6 | 54.00% | 3 | LOSS |
| CHI@SJ | CHI +105 | 51.60% | 3 | LOSS |
| WAS@LA | WAS +105 | 51.20% | 3 | LOSS |
| TB@CAR | CAR -130 | 56.40% | 3 | WIN |
| NSH@BOS | BOS -125 | 55.20% | 3 | LOSS |