Green Bay is laying only 1.5 points in Tampa, but Micah Parsons is tracking toward a Week 6 return, leaving the Packers without their premier pass rusher for this tight early NFC test.
Betting Snapshot
Spread Movement
Moneyline Movement
Total Movement
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| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | GB -1.5 TB +1.5 | GB -125 TB +105 | O 47.5 U 47.5 |
| BetUS | GB -1.5 TB +1.5 | — | O 47.5 U 47.5 |
| Caesars | GB -1.5 TB +1.5 | GB -120 TB -110 | O 46.5 U 46.5 |
Injury Report
Green Bay's biggest early-season concern is Micah Parsons, who is rehabbing ACL and meniscus surgery and has identified Week 6 as his most optimistic return target, making Week 4 availability highly unlikely. Josh Jacobs has also missed recent camp work, though his October status is not established. Tampa Bay opened camp with Tristan Wirfs nursing a hamstring and Vita Vea dealing with a back tweak, both initially described as day to day. Formal Week 4 injury designations are not yet available.
Key Players
Key Matchup Edge
Green Bay's clearest paper edge is through the air. Tampa Bay's 2025 pass defense ranked 27th while Jordan Love posted a 101.2 passer rating and protected the ball well. The counterweight is pressure: if Tampa's rebuilt rush can hurry Love and Parsons is unavailable on the other side, Baker Mayfield's offense gets a cleaner path to staying inside the number.
3 Things to Watch
- Micah Parsons' Week 4 availability
- Tampa Bay's rebuilt pass rush
- Jordan Love against Tampa's secondary
Betting Breakdown
Green Bay is a narrow 1.5-point road favorite with a 47.5 total, and the number makes sense for a matchup carrying more uncertainty than the 2025 records suggest. The Packers finished 9-7-1 and reached the playoffs, while Tampa Bay went 8-9 after a strong start, yet both teams were poor late against the spread. Green Bay closed 0-5 ATS including the Wild Card loss, and Tampa Bay went 0-5 ATS over its final five. The clearest Green Bay angle is Jordan Love attacking a Buccaneers pass defense that ranked 27th last season, especially if his receiving group is healthy. Tampa's counter is situational: the Bucs are at home, Baker Mayfield produced a perfect 158.3 passer rating against Green Bay in the most recent meeting, and Micah Parsons is not expected back until after Week 4. At such a small spread, quarterback efficiency, pass protection and third-down defense should decide whether Green Bay can justify road-favorite status.
Green Bay Betting Outlook
Green Bay brings the better 2025 record but not a clean betting profile. The Packers went 9-7-1 in the regular season, 4-4-1 on the road and just 6-10-1 ATS before losing their Wild Card game, extending the late ATS slide to five straight misses. Jordan Love remains the stabilizer after throwing 23 touchdowns against six interceptions with a 101.2 rating, and his efficiency gives Green Bay a favorable path against Tampa's 27th-ranked 2025 pass defense. The complication is defensive. Micah Parsons is targeting Week 6 at the earliest, so Green Bay may need Love and the offense to create more margin than usual on the road.
Tampa Bay Betting Outlook
Tampa Bay enters 2026 trying to rebound from an 8-9 season and a 5-12 ATS record, the league's worst mark against the number in 2025. The Bucs were 4-4 at Raymond James Stadium and finished 1-4 over their last five games, but this matchup has a useful historical angle: Baker Mayfield posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating in Tampa's 34-20 win at Green Bay in 2023. Tampa's run defense ranked fifth last season, giving the Bucs a sturdy base if they can force Love into obvious passing downs. The swing factor is whether the rebuilt pass rush can compensate for a secondary that ranked 27th against the pass.
Latest Team Buzz
A monochromatic moment 🤌 pic.twitter.com/YuyqKDKADl
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 12, 2026
Alex Anzalone = Playmaker 👏 pic.twitter.com/nMThZNaJfW
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) August 12, 2026
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers FAQ
What is the current spread for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The current home spread is TB +1.5, while the away spread is GB -1.5.
How far has the spread moved for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The spread opened at TB +1.5 and is now TB +1.5.
What is the current moneyline for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The current moneyline is GB -125 / TB +105.
How far has the moneyline moved for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The moneyline opened at GB -125 / TB +105 and is now GB -125 / TB +105.
What is the current total for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The current total is 47.5.
How far has the total moved for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The total opened at 47.5 and is now 47.5.
Is the market taking the underdog in Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Current market signal: Market Steady.
Is the market taking the favorite in Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Current market signal: Market Steady.
Is the total dropping for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Current totals signal: Total Steady.
Is the total rising for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Current totals signal: Total Steady.
Where to watch Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
You can watch this game on FOX. For the latest broadcast details, see Where to Watch.
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You can stream this game on YouTube TV.
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What is the biggest matchup edge for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Green Bay's clearest paper edge is through the air. Tampa Bay's 2025 pass defense ranked 27th while Jordan Love posted a 101.2 passer rating and protected the ball well. The counterweight is pressure: if Tampa's rebuilt rush can hurry Love and Parsons is unavailable on the other side, Baker Mayfield's offense gets a cleaner path to staying inside the number.
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NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 04, 2026 at Raymond James Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
NFL |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NE | DRAKE MAYE OVER 0.5 INT | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| LAR@CHI | KYREN WILLIAMS OVER 59.5 RUSH YDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | JAUAN JENNINGS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| BUF@DEN | BO NIX OVER 243.5 PASS + RUSH YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | SF +7 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@PIT | UNDER 38.5 | 53.4% | 2 | WIN |
| HOU@PIT | AARON RODGERS UNDER 21.5 PASS COMP | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| LAC@NE | DRAKE MAYE OVER 0.5 INT THROWN | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
| BUF@JAC | TRAVIS ETIENNE UNDER 81.5 RUSH + RECV YDS | 54.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| SF@PHI | SF +6.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| LAC@NE | LAC +3.5 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| LAR@CAR | MATTHEW STAFFORD UNDER 33.5 PASS ATT | 53.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| GB@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS UNDER 0.5 INT THROWN | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| BAL@PIT | DERRICK HENRY OVER 99.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.9% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@CHI | JAHMYR GIBBS ANYTIME TD | 56.8% | 6 | WIN |
| IND@HOU | CJ STROUD OVER 221.5 PASS + RUSH YDS | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| TEN@JAC | JAC -13.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| CLE@CIN | CIN -7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| DAL@NYG | OVER 49.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@TB | BRYCE YOUNG UNDER 0.5 INT | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| SEA@SF | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 11.5 RUSH ATT | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| CAR@TB | BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 0.5 INT | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| SEA@SF | CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| LAR@ATL | KYLE PITS OVER 54.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| LAR@ATL | BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 44.5 RECV YDS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| CHI@SF | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 224.5 PASS YDS | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| JAC@IND | MICHAEL PITTMAN OVER 49.5 RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| PIT@CLE | CLE +4.5 | 56.9% | 6 | WIN |
| ARI@CIN | CIN -7 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
| TB@MIA | TB -4.5 | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| NYG@LV | NYG -2 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| NE@NYJ | NE -13.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
| NO@TEN | NO -1 | 56.0% | 5 | WIN |
| NYG@LV | UNDER 41.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| HOU@LAC | CJ STROUD OVER 0.5 INT | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| DAL@WAS | DAL -8.5 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| DEN@KC | RJ HARVEY ANYTIME TD | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| DAL@WAS | TERRY MCLAURIN ANYTIME TD | 53.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| SF@IND | BROCK PURDY OVER 0.5 INT | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| SF@IND | MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SF@IND | SF -4.5 | 56.8% | 6 | WIN |
| LV@HOU | NICO COLLINS ANYTIME TD | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAC@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 82.5 RUSH + RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| JAC@DEN | TREVOR LAWRENCE UNDER 251.5 PASS + RUSH YDS | 57.4% | 7 | LOSS |
| LV@HOU | HOU -14 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| BUF@CLE | CLE +10.5 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| MIN@NYG | MIN -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| TB@CAR | TB -3 | 53.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| JAC@DEN | DEN -3.5 | 53.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| KC@TEN | KC -2.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| NE@BAL | NE +3.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
