Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Dec 28)
Updated: 2025-12-21T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–8) travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins (6–9) on December 28, 2025, in a late-season Week 17 matchup with implications for both clubs’ momentum and confidence as they close out the regular season. Tampa Bay enters as the favorite after a disappointing stretch that saw it lose six of seven games, while Miami has shown flashes of competitiveness as it continues to test roster direction and quarterback play.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Dec 28, 2025
Start Time: 2:00 PM EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins Record: (6-9)
Buccaneers Record: (7-8)
OPENING ODDS
TB Moneyline: -248
MIA Moneyline: +202
TB Spread: -5.5
MIA Spread: +5.5
Over/Under: 45.5
TB
Betting Trends
- The Buccaneers are 5–10 against the spread this season, reflecting struggles to cover even when favored due to inconsistency in performance and late-game execution.
MIA
Betting Trends
- The Dolphins have been roughly average ATS with a roughly even cover rate, with Miami occasionally outperforming expectations, especially in closer outcomes where the spread expands.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Public betting trends show a significant lean toward the Buccaneers on the spread, and historical rivalry context — including Tampa Bay’s series advantage — may factor into how bettors view this matchup relative to expectations.
TB vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: Q. Ewers over 185.5 Passing Yards.
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Tampa Bay vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 12/28/25
The Week 17 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins on December 28, 2025 represents a critical juncture for both teams as they seek to close the regular season on a strong note and shape momentum heading into the offseason or potential playoff contention. Tampa Bay, now at 7–8, has struggled to maintain the consistency it showed early in the season before a late slide saw six losses in seven games, including narrow defeats where execution down the stretch proved costly. The Buccaneers’ offense under veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield has displayed enough playmaking to remain competitive, but injuries and offensive line disruptions — including the absence of All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs due to a toe injury — have complicated their ability to sustain drives and protect their passer in key moments. Tampa Bay’s defense, meanwhile, has been tasked with generating turnovers and limiting explosive plays, but has also been stretched at times when facing dynamic offensive units. On the other sideline, Miami arrives at 6–9 with a mixture of promising individual performances and ongoing roster evaluation shaping its 2025 narrative. Running back De’Von Achane’s breakout season, with over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and a Pro Bowl nod, has provided Miami with a true offensive identity at the ground level, and his ability to pressure defenses with speed and big-play ability makes him a central threat in critical downs.
However, quarterback play and consistency remains a point of emphasis for the Dolphins as they test options and balance short-term results with long-term decision-making, including ongoing evaluation of the quarterback position as the franchise weighs how to build moving forward. Defensively, Miami seeks to balance its efforts in stopping the run and defending against intermediate passing attacks, with pressure packages designed to disrupt timing and create turnovers. As a divisional, in-state rivalry, the Buccaneers and Dolphins also carry historical context that fuels competitive intensity; Tampa Bay holds the series edge and will look to assert that dominance once again while Miami uses home-field comfort and familiarity to generate momentum and contest every phase of the game. Ultimately, this matchup may be decided by situational execution in red-zone play, third-down efficiency, and turnover margin, as both teams understand that closing the season with a strong performance can set the tone for offseason confidence and roster evaluation heading into 2026.
Get live NFL odds and precise AI NFL picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
Fight 'til the end ‼️#WeAreTheKrewe pic.twitter.com/YdKx6FxmUz
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 21, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Preview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive in South Florida on December 28, 2025 looking to reclaim the form that made them contenders earlier in the year and keep their NFC South hopes alive despite a challenging late-season stretch that has seen a string of narrow losses sap momentum. Sitting at 7–8 after six defeats in seven games, Tampa Bay enters this matchup under pressure to respond and demonstrate that its recent struggles are anomalies rather than the rule for a roster built to compete. Sunday’s game represents a chance for the Buccaneers to stabilize their season and keep control of their own destiny; a win would not only extend the rivalry edge they have historically held over the Dolphins but also provide a blueprint for how this team can execute under duress. Offensively, quarterback Baker Mayfield has the experience and playmaking ability to lead timely drives when protection holds and playmakers such as Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka can get open with route precision and contested catch ability. However, Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been undermined by injuries — most notably the absence of All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs — which has affected pass protection and run blocking, forcing adjustments that test depth and continuity.
The Buccaneers’ rushing attack has worked to stay balanced and generate manageable down-and-distance situations, yet sustaining drives will hinge on limiting negative plays and converting third-down opportunities. Defensively, Tampa Bay’s focus has been on generating turnovers and applying pressure that disrupts timing, with safeties and linebackers tasked with tight coverage and containment responsibility. Against Miami’s multifaceted ground game and evolving passing approach, disrupting rhythm and forcing errors will be a central theme of the Buccaneers’ game plan. Special teams performance also stands to influence field position and late-game opportunities, another area where execution matters in a contest that could tighten in the fourth quarter. If Tampa Bay can protect its quarterback, convert critical third downs, and tighten its run defense, the Buccaneers can not only silence recent struggles but also reinforce the belief that they are capable of closing the season strong and continuing to compete within the NFC South — a meaningful accomplishment that could shape confidence heading into 2026.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Miami Dolphins NFL Preview
The Miami Dolphins return to Hard Rock Stadium on December 28, 2025 aiming to close their 2025 campaign with a performance that reflects growth, resilience, and the promise of future development, even as the playoff picture has slipped out of reach with a 6–9 record. Miami’s season has been shaped by standout performances and evolving identity, with running back De’Von Achane emerging as one of the league’s most dynamic offensive weapons; his 1,726 yards from scrimmage and eight rushing touchdowns underscore his ability to change momentum and create explosive plays in the ground game. Anchored by his speed and vision, the Dolphins’ offense looks to build balanced drives that open up opportunities for the passing game, yet quarterback stability has been a topic of ongoing evaluation; with decisions about the long-term direction of the position looming, Miami has tested variations in personnel and play design to maximize offensive efficiency while managing defensive pressure. The Dolphins’ defense, led by playmakers such as linebacker Jordyn Brooks — whose tackling prowess and ability to disrupt opposing offenses have been notable — seeks to limit chunk plays and force opponents into longer drives where discipline and coverage depth can swing possession.
At home, Miami must emphasize situational execution, using crowd energy to their advantage and anchoring defensive stands on key downs to create short fields for the offense. Run defense and pass rush productivity will be essential in containing Tampa Bay’s offensive rhythm, especially against a team that has shown playmaking ability despite offensive line disruptions and injuries. On offense, establishing early rhythm with Achane and protecting the quarterback in shotgun and under-center looks will be central to controlling time of possession and avoiding snowballing momentum swings. Miami’s special teams will also play a role in field position and late-game scenarios, where confidence and execution can tilt closely contested outcomes. By reducing mistakes, winning the turnover battle, and playing disciplined situational football in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins can make a strong statement at home and end their season on a competitive note, laying groundwork for optimism and clearer evaluation as they prepare for the next chapter in 2026.
97-yard drive ➡️ Jaylen Wright TD pic.twitter.com/W7Bzz0HKmi
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 21, 2025
Tampa Bay vs Miami Prop Picks (AI)
Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Buccaneers and Dolphins play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Hard Rock Stadium in Dec can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Tampa Bay vs Miami Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every angle between the Buccaneers and Dolphins and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the trending weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Tampa Bay’s strength factors between a Buccaneers team going up against a possibly rested Dolphins team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Tampa Bay vs Miami picks, computer picks Buccaneers vs Dolphins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
|
DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL schedule.
Tampa Bay Betting Trends
The Buccaneers are 5–10 against the spread this season, reflecting struggles to cover even when favored due to inconsistency in performance and late-game execution.
Miami Betting Trends
The Dolphins have been roughly average ATS with a roughly even cover rate, with Miami occasionally outperforming expectations, especially in closer outcomes where the spread expands.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Matchup Trends
Public betting trends show a significant lean toward the Buccaneers on the spread, and historical rivalry context — including Tampa Bay’s series advantage — may factor into how bettors view this matchup relative to expectations.
Tampa Bay vs. Miami Game Info
Tampa Bay vs Miami starts on December 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM EST.
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium.
Spread: Miami +5.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -248, Miami +202
Over/Under: 45.5
Tampa Bay: (7-8) | Miami: (6-9)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: Q. Ewers over 185.5 Passing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
Public betting trends show a significant lean toward the Buccaneers on the spread, and historical rivalry context — including Tampa Bay’s series advantage — may factor into how bettors view this matchup relative to expectations.
TB trend: The Buccaneers are 5–10 against the spread this season, reflecting struggles to cover even when favored due to inconsistency in performance and late-game execution.
MIA trend: The Dolphins have been roughly average ATS with a roughly even cover rate, with Miami occasionally outperforming expectations, especially in closer outcomes where the spread expands.
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Tampa Bay vs. Miami Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Tampa Bay vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
| TB Moneyline | -248 |
|---|---|
| MIA Moneyline | +202 |
| TB Spread | -5.5 |
| MIA Spread | +5.5 |
| Over / Under | 45.5 |
Tampa Bay vs Miami Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U |
|---|
NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins on December 28, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
|
NFL |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| SEA@NE | SEA -4.5 | 54.2% | 3 | WIN |
| LAR@SEA | SAM DARNOLD TO THROW AN INT | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| NE@DEN | DRAKE MAYE OVER 29.5 PASS ATT | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| NE@DEN | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| NE@DEN | DEN +4 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
| HOU@NE | HOU +3.5 | 56.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@NE | OVER 40.5 | 51.2% | 1 | WIN |
| LAR@CHI | UNDER 49 | 52.3% | 1 | WIN |
| HOU@NE | DRAKE MAYE OVER 0.5 INT | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| LAR@CHI | KYREN WILLIAMS OVER 59.5 RUSH YDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | JAUAN JENNINGS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| BUF@DEN | BO NIX OVER 243.5 PASS + RUSH YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | SF +7 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@PIT | UNDER 38.5 | 53.4% | 2 | WIN |
| HOU@PIT | AARON RODGERS UNDER 21.5 PASS COMP | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| LAC@NE | DRAKE MAYE OVER 0.5 INT THROWN | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
| BUF@JAC | TRAVIS ETIENNE UNDER 81.5 RUSH + RECV YDS | 54.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| SF@PHI | SF +6.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| LAC@NE | LAC +3.5 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| SF@PHI | UNDER 44 | 53.2% | 3 | WIN |
| BUF@JAC | UNDER 51 | 52.1% | 1 | PUSH |
| LAR@CAR | MATTHEW STAFFORD UNDER 33.5 PASS ATT | 53.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| GB@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS UNDER 0.5 INT THROWN | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| BAL@PIT | DERRICK HENRY OVER 99.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.9% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@CHI | JAHMYR GIBBS ANYTIME TD | 56.8% | 6 | WIN |
| IND@HOU | CJ STROUD OVER 221.5 PASS + RUSH YDS | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| TEN@JAC | JAC -13.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| CLE@CIN | CIN -7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| DAL@NYG | OVER 49.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@TB | BRYCE YOUNG UNDER 0.5 INT | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| SEA@SF | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 11.5 RUSH ATT | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| CAR@TB | BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 0.5 INT | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| SEA@SF | CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| LAR@ATL | KYLE PITS OVER 54.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| LAR@ATL | BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 44.5 RECV YDS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| CHI@SF | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 224.5 PASS YDS | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| JAC@IND | MICHAEL PITTMAN OVER 49.5 RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| PIT@CLE | CLE +4.5 | 56.9% | 6 | WIN |
| ARI@CIN | CIN -7 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
| TB@MIA | TB -4.5 | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| NYG@LV | NYG -2 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| NE@NYJ | NE -13.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
| NO@TEN | NO -1 | 56.0% | 5 | WIN |
| NYG@LV | UNDER 41.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| HOU@LAC | CJ STROUD OVER 0.5 INT | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| DAL@WAS | DAL -8.5 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| DEN@KC | RJ HARVEY ANYTIME TD | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| DAL@WAS | TERRY MCLAURIN ANYTIME TD | 53.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| SF@IND | BROCK PURDY OVER 0.5 INT | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| SF@IND | MICHAEL PITTMAN JR OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
