The Pittsburgh Steelers return home to Acrisure Stadium for their Week 9 showdown against the Indianapolis Colts facing a crossroads moment in their 2025 campaign. At 4-3, the Steelers’ record suggests a team still in the playoff hunt, but their performances in recent weeks have raised more questions than confidence. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s trademark discipline and toughness remain, but this version of the Steelers has struggled to execute at the high level fans have come to expect. The defense, long the identity of this franchise, has shown signs of decline, particularly against dynamic offenses capable of exploiting mismatches in coverage and tempo. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s unit has surrendered over 30 points in consecutive games and ranks near the bottom of the league in red-zone efficiency, giving up touchdowns on more than 70 percent of opponent trips inside the 20. Star pass rusher T.J. Watt continues to deliver elite production off the edge, leading the AFC in sacks and pressures, but he’s received little complementary help, leaving quarterbacks too comfortable when Watt is neutralized. The Steelers’ secondary, featuring Joey Porter Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick, has the talent to create turnovers but has been plagued by lapses in zone coverage and communication errors. Against an Indianapolis offense that ranks among the top five in both total yards and scoring, Pittsburgh must rediscover its defensive identity—stopping the run, forcing third-and-longs, and turning pressure into takeaways. Offensively, the Steelers have transitioned to veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers in hopes that his experience could stabilize an attack that has been inconsistent since the start of the season.

Rodgers has shown flashes of his vintage accuracy and poise, but a lack of pass protection and an unreliable ground game have limited his effectiveness. The offensive line has struggled to establish physical dominance, and while Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren provide contrasting running styles, neither has been able to sustain momentum against stacked boxes. Rodgers’ chemistry with George Pickens remains the offense’s brightest spot—Pickens continues to evolve into one of the league’s premier deep threats, averaging nearly 18 yards per catch—but the passing attack often becomes one-dimensional when the run game falters. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will need to lean into creativity, using misdirection, motion, and quick passes to neutralize Indianapolis’ fast, aggressive front seven led by DeForest Buckner and Zaire Franklin. Expect Rodgers to look for quick-hitting connections with Diontae Johnson and tight end Pat Freiermuth to move the chains and prevent the Colts from unleashing their pass rush. The key for Pittsburgh will be efficiency: maintaining drives, avoiding turnovers, and finding ways to win the field position battle, as their offense isn’t built to win shootouts. From a betting perspective, Pittsburgh has been unreliable at home, covering the spread in only three of its last seven contests at Acrisure Stadium. While Tomlin’s teams have historically thrived as home underdogs, this version lacks the defensive dominance that used to make them nearly unbeatable in front of their fans. However, if there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Steelers tend to rise when doubted, especially under Tomlin, who has never allowed complacency to take root. For Pittsburgh to pull off an upset, the defense must pressure Daniel Jones into mistakes, generate at least one turnover that flips field position, and hold Jonathan Taylor under 100 rushing yards. Rodgers must be sharp, efficient, and mistake-free while converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns instead of field goals. The Steelers’ formula for victory hasn’t changed: win in the trenches, control tempo, and let their defense set the tone. Against a powerhouse Colts team, that challenge is steep—but if any coach and franchise can turn a messy midseason narrative into a gritty statement win, it’s Pittsburgh.