Jets vs Dolphins Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Sep 29)

Updated: 2025-09-22T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The New York Jets visit the Miami Dolphins on the night of September 29, 2025 in a pivotal AFC East battle, with both teams desperate to shake off disappointing starts. Oddsmakers installed Miami as the 2.5-point favorite while projecting a total near 44.5, signaling expectations for a competitive game.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Sep 29, 2025

Start Time: 7:15 PM EST​

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium​

Dolphins Record: (0-3)

Jets Record: (0-3)

OPENING ODDS

NYJ Moneyline: +127

MIA Moneyline: -153

NYJ Spread: +2.5

MIA Spread: -2.5

Over/Under: 44.5

NYJ
Betting Trends

  • The Jets have struggled to cover in recent seasons, falling to 3–7 ATS following straight-up losses and 2–7 ATS after an ATS loss.

MIA
Betting Trends

  • The Dolphins have fared better as favorites, posting a 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • This game marks the return of Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to take the field in Week 4 after recovering from a hip strain. Also, markets opened with the Jets as underdogs (-2.5) and a relatively moderate total of 44.5, reflecting uncertainty about the consistency of both offenses.

NYJ vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Achane under 43.5 Receiving Yards.

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New York vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 9/29/25

The Week 4 Monday night showdown between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins on September 29, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium brings an intriguing clash of AFC East rivals both desperate to regain traction in the early season, with the Jets seeking stability after inconsistent results and the Dolphins aiming to snap a winless skid despite showing flashes of competitiveness. Miami enters at 0–3 but with reinforcements, most notably the return of tight end Darren Waller, whose presence should help open up their offensive playbook and provide Tua Tagovailoa, if healthy and under center, with a trusted weapon across the middle and in red-zone situations where the Dolphins have struggled to finish drives. The Jets, meanwhile, face pressure to prove that their offensive adjustments can finally yield results, as protection breakdowns and turnovers have often erased opportunities to build rhythm. Strategically, Miami’s path to success lies in leveraging Waller’s size and route versatility to stretch New York’s linebackers and safeties, while continuing to take calculated deep shots against a Jets secondary that has been vulnerable to big plays. Their run game will be key to creating balance and preventing New York from teeing off with disguised blitzes.

For the Jets, the offensive formula is built on quick timing routes, screens, and a controlled ground game to slow Miami’s rush and create more manageable third downs, while their defense must prioritize containing Waller and limiting Miami’s explosive perimeter threats. Turnover margin looms as a critical factor in this matchup: New York’s poor ATS record following losses reflects their tendency to compound mistakes, while Miami has shown sharper focus at home when favored, particularly against divisional opponents. With the line sitting at Dolphins -2.5 and a total near 44.5, oddsmakers expect a tightly contested battle that may ultimately be decided by situational execution in the red zone and special teams discipline. The stage is set for a competitive, hard-fought contest where Miami’s hunger for its first win and the Jets’ fight to remain relevant in the division collide under the primetime lights.

New York Jets NFL Preview

The New York Jets travel to Miami for this Week 4 Monday night clash knowing the spotlight will be unforgiving if they cannot correct the issues that have plagued them through the first three weeks of the season, particularly their inability to sustain drives, protect their quarterback, and avoid turnovers. At 0–2 ATS after losses and just 3–7 ATS following straight-up defeats, the Jets’ struggles against the spread mirror their inconsistency on the field, as flashes of promise have too often been erased by untimely penalties or blown protections. Offensively, the Jets must establish rhythm early by leaning on quick-release passing concepts, incorporating screens and motion to negate Miami’s edge rush, and staying committed to the run game so that they can avoid long third downs. Their offensive line will be tested against a Dolphins front that, while not perfect, has the speed to generate pressure and create havoc, meaning the Jets’ quarterback must be decisive and protect the ball above all else.

Defensively, New York’s secondary must show greater discipline, as Darren Waller’s return provides Miami with a matchup weapon over the middle and their wideouts still pose a vertical threat, making communication and assignment integrity essential. The Jets’ front seven must pressure Miami’s quarterback into hurried throws and generate turnovers to give their offense extra opportunities, because in a game with a projected low total, every possession matters. Special teams will also need to be sharp, as field position in a close, divisional game could swing momentum. For New York, the keys are clear: stay disciplined, play mistake-free football, and control tempo through balance and smart situational play. If they can win the turnover battle and keep Miami’s offense from gaining traction with Waller back in the fold, the Jets have a realistic chance to not only cover the spread but also deliver a confidence-building divisional win on the road in primetime.

The New York Jets visit the Miami Dolphins on the night of September 29, 2025 in a pivotal AFC East battle, with both teams desperate to shake off disappointing starts. Oddsmakers installed Miami as the 2.5-point favorite while projecting a total near 44.5, signaling expectations for a competitive game. New York vs Miami AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Sep 29. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Miami Dolphins NFL Preview

The Miami Dolphins enter this Week 4 primetime clash at Hard Rock Stadium against the New York Jets under immense pressure, sitting at 0–3 and needing to prove they can translate flashes of talent into tangible wins, and the return of Darren Waller could not have come at a better time. Waller’s presence immediately changes the complexion of Miami’s offense, giving Tua Tagovailoa a reliable seam threat who can force linebackers and safeties into uncomfortable matchups and create more space for the wideouts to operate. Miami’s offensive approach will likely emphasize balance, leaning on the run to keep New York’s aggressive front seven from keying in on the pass while using play-action to buy Tua the time he needs to exploit mismatches. Defensively, the Dolphins must clean up breakdowns in coverage and continue applying steady pressure, as the Jets have shown vulnerability when protection collapses and their quarterback is forced to rush throws.

Miami’s secondary, despite its inconsistencies, has the speed to close passing lanes quickly, but discipline will be critical against a Jets offense that will try to use quick throws and motion to neutralize the pass rush. Special teams execution must also be sharp, as hidden yardage in field position could become decisive in a game with a betting total sitting around 44.5. From an ATS perspective, the Dolphins have been a much stronger cover team when playing as small-to-moderate favorites, and their 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games in that role suggests the market may be favoring them for good reason. For Miami to come away with a win, they must control tempo, finish drives in the red zone, and limit turnovers—if they do, the return of Waller combined with home-field energy could give them just the boost needed to notch their first win of 2025 and reset their trajectory in the AFC East.

New York vs. Miami Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Jets and Dolphins play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Hard Rock Stadium in Sep rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Achane under 43.5 Receiving Yards.

New York vs. Miami Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every past game between the Jets and Dolphins and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

Interestingly enough, the data has been most focused on the growing weight human bettors often put on Miami’s strength factors between a Jets team going up against a possibly strong Dolphins team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI New York vs Miami picks, computer picks Jets vs Dolphins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 10/23 MIN@LAC UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 10/23 MIN@LAC UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Jets Betting Trends

The Jets have struggled to cover in recent seasons, falling to 3–7 ATS following straight-up losses and 2–7 ATS after an ATS loss.

Dolphins Betting Trends

The Dolphins have fared better as favorites, posting a 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points.

Jets vs. Dolphins Matchup Trends

This game marks the return of Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to take the field in Week 4 after recovering from a hip strain. Also, markets opened with the Jets as underdogs (-2.5) and a relatively moderate total of 44.5, reflecting uncertainty about the consistency of both offenses.

New York vs. Miami Game Info

New York vs Miami starts on September 29, 2025 at 7:15 PM EST.

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium.

Spread: Miami -2.5
Moneyline: New York +127, Miami -153
Over/Under: 44.5

New York: (0-3)  |  Miami: (0-3)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Achane under 43.5 Receiving Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

This game marks the return of Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to take the field in Week 4 after recovering from a hip strain. Also, markets opened with the Jets as underdogs (-2.5) and a relatively moderate total of 44.5, reflecting uncertainty about the consistency of both offenses.

NYJ trend: The Jets have struggled to cover in recent seasons, falling to 3–7 ATS following straight-up losses and 2–7 ATS after an ATS loss.

MIA trend: The Dolphins have fared better as favorites, posting a 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New York vs. Miami Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each player. In fact, anytime the New York vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.

New York vs Miami Opening Odds

NYJ Moneyline: +127
MIA Moneyline: -153
NYJ Spread: +2.5
MIA Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5

New York vs Miami Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
In Progress
Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Chargers
In Progress
Vikings
Chargers
3
24
+4500
-50000
+19.5 (-120)
-19.5 (-110)
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-120)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
New England Patriots
10/26/25 1PM
Browns
Patriots
+300
-375
+7 (-115)
-7 (-105)
O 40.5 (-110)
U 40.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
10/26/25 1PM
Bills
Panthers
-375
+300
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
O 46 (-110)
U 46 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
10/26/25 1PM
Jets
Bengals
+240
-300
+6.5 (-115)
-6.5 (-105)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens
10/26/25 1PM
Bears
Ravens
+230
-285
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
O 49 (-110)
U 49 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
10/26/25 1PM
Giants
Eagles
+300
-375
+7 (-105)
-7 (-115)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans
10/26/25 1PM
49ers
Texans
+110
-130
+2.5 (-115)
-2.5 (-105)
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
10/26/25 1PM
Dolphins
Falcons
+330
-425
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 4:05PM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
10/26/25 4:05PM
Buccaneers
Saints
-210
+175
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
10/26/25 4:25PM
Cowboys
Broncos
+150
-180
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 51 (-110)
U 51 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
10/26/25 4:25PM
Titans
Colts
+800
-1400
+14.5 (-110)
-14.5 (-110)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/26/25 8:20PM
Packers
Steelers
-170
+140
-3 (-105)
+3 (-115)
O 45.5 (-110)
U 45.5 (-110)
Oct 27, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Washington Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs
10/27/25 8:15PM
Commanders
Chiefs
+550
-800
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Oct 30, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
10/30/25 8:15PM
Ravens
Dolphins
-395
+310
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
Nov 2, 2025 1:00PM EST
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
11/2/25 1PM
Bears
Bengals
-118
-102
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Nov 2, 2025 1:00PM EST
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers
11/2/25 1PM
Colts
Steelers
-148
+124
-2.5 (-118)
+2.5 (-102)
O 48.5 (-118)
U 48.5 (-102)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins on September 29, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TB@DET RACHAAD WHITE UNDER 14.5 RUSH ATT 54.4% 4 WIN
NE@TEN NE -6.5 55.2% 5 WIN
CAR@NYJ CAR -110 57.4 4 WIN
PHI@MIN PHI -130 58.0% 6 WIN
GB@ARI ARI +7 54.8% 5 WIN
NO@CHI NO +4.5 57.4% 7 LOSS
WAS@DAL JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 56.1% 5 WIN
GB@ARI JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 56.6% 6 WIN
PIT@CIN JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
BUF@ATL BUF -3.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
CHI@WAS JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 56.6% 6 WIN
TEN@LV UNDER 42 54.8% 3 WIN
DET@KC DET +2.5 55.7% 7 LOSS
SEA@JAC SEA -112 55.7% 5 WIN
LAC@MIA LAC -3.5 54.0% 3 LOSS
ARI@IND IND -8.5 55.6% 5 LOSS
TEN@LV TEN +4.5 56.7% 6 LOSS
LAR@BAL LAR -7 56.2% 6 WIN
SF@TB SF +3.5 57.2% 7 LOSS
CLE@PIT JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 LOSS
DEN@NYJ BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS 55.0% 4 LOSS
KC@JAC UNDER 45.5 54.9% 3 LOSS
KC@JAC PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP 56.6% 6 LOSS
HOU@BAL HOU -125 58.5% 7 WIN
DET@CIN DET -10 55.6% 5 WIN
DAL@NYJ NYJ +1.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
TB@SEA TB +3.5 54.9% 4 WIN
TEN@ARI ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) 54.9% 4 LOSS
DEN@PHI DEN +4.5 57.5% 7 WIN
MIA@CAR TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS 54.5% 4 WIN
LV@IND ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 WIN
SF@LAR DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.7% 5 WIN
NYJ@MIA NYJ +3 53.8 3 LOSS
CIN@DEN DEN -7.5 54.8 4 WIN
NYJ@MIA OVER 44 52.9% 2 WIN
CIN@DEN UNDER 44.5 53.7% 3 WIN
NYJ@MIA GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS 53.7% 3 WIN
CIN@DEN TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS 55.5% 5 LOSS
WAS@ATL ATL -2.5 54.3 4 WIN
BAL@KC BAL -2.5 56.3% 6 LOSS
TEN@HOU TEN +7.5 57.9% 7 LOSS
LAC@NYG LAC -6 57.3% 7 LOSS
NO@BUF UNDER 48.5 55.1% 3 LOSS
GB@DAL JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS 55.5% 5 LOSS
CAR@NE DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 LOSS
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS