Jets vs. Dolphins
Prediction, Odds & Props
Sep 29 | NFL AI Picks
Updated: 2025-09-22T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The New York Jets visit the Miami Dolphins on the night of September 29, 2025 in a pivotal AFC East battle, with both teams desperate to shake off disappointing starts. Oddsmakers installed Miami as the 2.5-point favorite while projecting a total near 44.5, signaling expectations for a competitive game.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Sep 29, 2025
Start Time: 7:15 PM EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins Record: (0-3)
Jets Record: (0-3)
OPENING ODDS
NYJ Moneyline: +127
MIA Moneyline: -153
NYJ Spread: +2.5
MIA Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5
NYJ
Betting Trends
- The Jets have struggled to cover in recent seasons, falling to 3–7 ATS following straight-up losses and 2–7 ATS after an ATS loss.
MIA
Betting Trends
- The Dolphins have fared better as favorites, posting a 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- This game marks the return of Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to take the field in Week 4 after recovering from a hip strain. Also, markets opened with the Jets as underdogs (-2.5) and a relatively moderate total of 44.5, reflecting uncertainty about the consistency of both offenses.
NYJ vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Achane under 43.5 Receiving Yards.
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New York vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 9/29/25
For the Jets, the offensive formula is built on quick timing routes, screens, and a controlled ground game to slow Miami’s rush and create more manageable third downs, while their defense must prioritize containing Waller and limiting Miami’s explosive perimeter threats. Turnover margin looms as a critical factor in this matchup: New York’s poor ATS record following losses reflects their tendency to compound mistakes, while Miami has shown sharper focus at home when favored, particularly against divisional opponents. With the line sitting at Dolphins -2.5 and a total near 44.5, oddsmakers expect a tightly contested battle that may ultimately be decided by situational execution in the red zone and special teams discipline. The stage is set for a competitive, hard-fought contest where Miami’s hunger for its first win and the Jets’ fight to remain relevant in the division collide under the primetime lights.
Tape doesn't lie. Quinnen Williams balled Sunday pic.twitter.com/RhM1fII2Ae
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 24, 2025
New York Jets NFL Preview
The New York Jets travel to Miami for this Week 4 Monday night clash knowing the spotlight will be unforgiving if they cannot correct the issues that have plagued them through the first three weeks of the season, particularly their inability to sustain drives, protect their quarterback, and avoid turnovers. At 0–2 ATS after losses and just 3–7 ATS following straight-up defeats, the Jets’ struggles against the spread mirror their inconsistency on the field, as flashes of promise have too often been erased by untimely penalties or blown protections. Offensively, the Jets must establish rhythm early by leaning on quick-release passing concepts, incorporating screens and motion to negate Miami’s edge rush, and staying committed to the run game so that they can avoid long third downs. Their offensive line will be tested against a Dolphins front that, while not perfect, has the speed to generate pressure and create havoc, meaning the Jets’ quarterback must be decisive and protect the ball above all else.
Defensively, New York’s secondary must show greater discipline, as Darren Waller’s return provides Miami with a matchup weapon over the middle and their wideouts still pose a vertical threat, making communication and assignment integrity essential. The Jets’ front seven must pressure Miami’s quarterback into hurried throws and generate turnovers to give their offense extra opportunities, because in a game with a projected low total, every possession matters. Special teams will also need to be sharp, as field position in a close, divisional game could swing momentum. For New York, the keys are clear: stay disciplined, play mistake-free football, and control tempo through balance and smart situational play. If they can win the turnover battle and keep Miami’s offense from gaining traction with Waller back in the fold, the Jets have a realistic chance to not only cover the spread but also deliver a confidence-building divisional win on the road in primetime.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Miami Dolphins NFL Preview
The Miami Dolphins enter this Week 4 primetime clash at Hard Rock Stadium against the New York Jets under immense pressure, sitting at 0–3 and needing to prove they can translate flashes of talent into tangible wins, and the return of Darren Waller could not have come at a better time. Waller’s presence immediately changes the complexion of Miami’s offense, giving Tua Tagovailoa a reliable seam threat who can force linebackers and safeties into uncomfortable matchups and create more space for the wideouts to operate. Miami’s offensive approach will likely emphasize balance, leaning on the run to keep New York’s aggressive front seven from keying in on the pass while using play-action to buy Tua the time he needs to exploit mismatches. Defensively, the Dolphins must clean up breakdowns in coverage and continue applying steady pressure, as the Jets have shown vulnerability when protection collapses and their quarterback is forced to rush throws.
Miami’s secondary, despite its inconsistencies, has the speed to close passing lanes quickly, but discipline will be critical against a Jets offense that will try to use quick throws and motion to neutralize the pass rush. Special teams execution must also be sharp, as hidden yardage in field position could become decisive in a game with a betting total sitting around 44.5. From an ATS perspective, the Dolphins have been a much stronger cover team when playing as small-to-moderate favorites, and their 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games in that role suggests the market may be favoring them for good reason. For Miami to come away with a win, they must control tempo, finish drives in the red zone, and limit turnovers—if they do, the return of Waller combined with home-field energy could give them just the boost needed to notch their first win of 2025 and reset their trajectory in the AFC East.
The Rivalries uniforms take the field on MNF 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/zzD2cY4a0R
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 23, 2025
New York vs. Miami Prop Picks (AI)
New York vs. Miami Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Jets and Dolphins and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most watching on the trending factor human bettors tend to put on New York’s strength factors between a Jets team going up against a possibly unhealthy Dolphins team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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Below is our current AI New York vs Miami picks, computer picks Jets vs Dolphins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.
Jets Betting Trends
The Jets have struggled to cover in recent seasons, falling to 3–7 ATS following straight-up losses and 2–7 ATS after an ATS loss.
Dolphins Betting Trends
The Dolphins have fared better as favorites, posting a 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points.
Jets vs. Dolphins Matchup Trends
This game marks the return of Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to take the field in Week 4 after recovering from a hip strain. Also, markets opened with the Jets as underdogs (-2.5) and a relatively moderate total of 44.5, reflecting uncertainty about the consistency of both offenses.
New York vs. Miami Game Info
What time does New York vs Miami start on September 29, 2025?
New York vs Miami starts on September 29, 2025 at 7:15 PM EST.
Where is New York vs Miami being played?
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium.
What are the opening odds for New York vs Miami?
Spread: Miami -2.5
Moneyline: New York +127, Miami -153
Over/Under: 44.5
What are the records for New York vs Miami?
New York: (0-3) | Miami: (0-3)
What is the AI best bet for New York vs Miami?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Achane under 43.5 Receiving Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are New York vs Miami trending bets?
This game marks the return of Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to take the field in Week 4 after recovering from a hip strain. Also, markets opened with the Jets as underdogs (-2.5) and a relatively moderate total of 44.5, reflecting uncertainty about the consistency of both offenses.
What are New York trending bets?
NYJ trend: The Jets have struggled to cover in recent seasons, falling to 3–7 ATS following straight-up losses and 2–7 ATS after an ATS loss.
What are Miami trending bets?
MIA trend: The Dolphins have fared better as favorites, posting a 9–3 ATS mark in their last 12 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points.
Where can I find AI Picks for New York vs Miami?
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
New York vs. Miami Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the New York vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
New York vs Miami Opening Odds
NYJ Moneyline:
+127 MIA Moneyline: -153
NYJ Spread: +2.5
MIA Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5
New York vs Miami Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Oct 2, 2025 8:16PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
10/2/25 8:16PM
49ers
Rams
|
–
–
|
+340
-440
|
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-110)
|
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 9:31AM EDT
Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns
10/5/25 9:31AM
Vikings
Browns
|
–
–
|
-218
+180
|
-4.5 (-105)
+4.5 (-115)
|
O 36.5 (+100)
U 36.5 (-120)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Las Vegas Raiders
Indianapolis Colts
10/5/25 1:01PM
Raiders
Colts
|
–
–
|
+250
-310
|
+6.5 (-105)
-6.5 (-115)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 1:01PM EDT
New York Giants
New Orleans Saints
10/5/25 1:01PM
Giants
Saints
|
–
–
|
+102
-122
|
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-108)
|
O 42.5 (-105)
U 42.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
10/5/25 1:01PM
Texans
Ravens
|
–
–
|
-125
+105
|
-1.5 (-112)
+1.5 (-108)
|
O 40.5 (-110)
U 40.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles
10/5/25 1:01PM
Broncos
Eagles
|
–
–
|
+164
-198
|
+3.5 (-105)
-3.5 (-115)
|
O 43.5 (-108)
U 43.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets
10/5/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Jets
|
–
–
|
-142
+120
|
-2.5 (-112)
+2.5 (-108)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers
10/5/25 1:01PM
Dolphins
Panthers
|
–
–
|
-120
+100
|
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
|
O 45.5 (-102)
U 45.5 (-118)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks
10/5/25 4:06PM
Buccaneers
Seahawks
|
–
–
|
+154
-185
|
+3.5 (-120)
-3.5 (+100)
|
O 44.5 (-112)
U 44.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals
10/5/25 4:06PM
Titans
Cardinals
|
–
–
|
+310
-395
|
+7.5 (-112)
-7.5 (-108)
|
O 42.5 (-110)
U 42.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Washington Commanders
Los Angeles Chargers
10/5/25 4:26PM
Commanders
Chargers
|
–
–
|
+130
-155
|
+2.5 (-105)
-2.5 (-115)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Cincinnati Bengals
10/5/25 4:26PM
Lions
Bengals
|
–
–
|
-550
+410
|
-10.5 (-105)
+10.5 (-115)
|
O 49.5 (-112)
U 49.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Oct 5, 2025 8:21PM EDT
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
10/5/25 8:21PM
Patriots
Bills
|
–
–
|
+340
-440
|
+8.5 (-115)
-8.5 (-105)
|
O 49.5 (-112)
U 49.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Oct 6, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/6/25 8:16PM
Chiefs
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
-175
+145
|
-3.5 (-108)
+3.5 (-112)
|
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Oct 9, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:16PM
Eagles
Giants
|
–
–
|
-395
+310
|
-7 (-115)
+7 (-105)
|
O 42.5 (-115)
U 42.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 8:31AM EDT
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
10/12/25 8:31AM
Broncos
Jets
|
–
–
|
-298
+240
|
-6.5 (-110)
+6.5 (-110)
|
O 43.5 (-115)
U 43.5 (-105)
|
NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins on September 29, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
| NFL |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
| NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
| CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
| NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
| CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
| BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
| SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
| ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| GB@CLE | GB -7 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| ARI@SF | ARI +3 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@NYG | PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| GB@CLE | JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| MIA@BUF | TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAC@LV | LAC -3 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| TB@HOU | BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| CHI@DET | DET -6.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| DEN@IND | DEN -118 | 60.1% | 10 | LOSS |
| PHI@KC | PHI -115 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| SF@NO | SF -3 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
| SEA@PIT | OVER 40 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@ARI | BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| DEN@IND | JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| ATL@MIN | BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@GB | WAS +3.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| WAS@GB | JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| MIN@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| TEN@DEN | DEN -8.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| SF@SEA | SF -115 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@JAC | TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| KC@LAC | JUSTIN HERBERT UNDER 0.5 INT | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
| DAL@PHI | GEORGE PICKENS LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 22.5 YDS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| KC@PHI | JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 16.5 RECV YDS | 53.90% | 5 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | DEVONTA SMITH LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 20.5 YDS | 54.40% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 68.3% PASS COMP | 55.00% | 8 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | JALEN HURTS LONGEST RUSH OVER 12.5 YDS | 55.60% | 8 | WIN |
| BUF@KC | DALTON KINCAID OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.10% | 8 | LOSS |
| WAS@PHI | DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 55.80% | 8 | WIN |
| BUF@KC | JAMES COOK ANYTIME TD | 53.00% | 5 | WIN |
| LAR@PHI | SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 128 RUSH + REC YDS | 53.20% | 5 | LOSS |