Ravens vs. Chiefs
Prediction, Odds & Props
Sep 28 | NFL AI Picks

Updated: 2025-09-21T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Arrowhead Stadium on September 28, 2025 to face the Kansas City Chiefs in what promises to be a clash of two high-powered offenses and playoff contenders. Early indications lean toward a tight betting landscape — KC has struggled in 2025 and Baltimore has shown flashes of strength, making this one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 4 slate.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Sep 28, 2025

Start Time: 4:25 PM EST​

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium​

Chiefs Record: (2-3)

Ravens Record: (1-2)

OPENING ODDS

BAL Moneyline: -147

KC Moneyline: +124

BAL Spread: -2.5

KC Spread: +2.5

Over/Under: 48.5

BAL
Betting Trends

  • Baltimore enters the game with a 1–2 ATS record this season, reflecting some inconsistency in covering lines despite expectations.

KC
Betting Trends

  • Kansas City has had difficulty covering in 2025, sitting at 0–2 ATS so far, a surprising trend given their pedigree and past performance as favorites.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Baltimore’s historical ATS strength is notable — they’ve produced a 21–12–1 ATS record over the past two seasons, one of the more profitable trends in the league. Meanwhile, early betting markets have shown sharp money fading Kansas City, especially with concerns about injuries and offensive rhythm.

BAL vs. KC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Jackson over 39.5 Rushing Yards.

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Baltimore vs Kansas City Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 9/28/25

The September 28, 2025 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium carries the weight of a playoff atmosphere, as both teams are perennial AFC contenders but enter this game under very different circumstances—Baltimore looking to build momentum after an uneven 1–2 ATS start and Kansas City desperate to halt a troubling trend with an 0–2 ATS mark that has raised eyebrows about their early-season form. The Ravens come in with their usual recipe for success centered around Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat brilliance, a rushing attack that can wear defenses down, and a defense capable of creating turnovers at critical moments; when Jackson is in rhythm and the offense is balanced, Baltimore’s ability to control tempo and dictate terms makes them one of the toughest outs in football. Kansas City, however, is still led by Patrick Mahomes, whose improvisational skill and ability to make plays outside of structure keep the Chiefs dangerous no matter how uneven their supporting cast or protection looks. The Chiefs’ challenge has been compounded by the uncertain health of Travis Kelce, their most reliable target, which places more responsibility on secondary receivers and backs to step into expanded roles, while their offensive line must hold up against a Baltimore front intent on collapsing the pocket and limiting Mahomes’ escape routes.

Defensively, the Ravens will look to use disguised coverages, pressure packages, and disciplined gap control to contain Mahomes and frustrate a Chiefs offense that hasn’t looked as explosive as in recent years, while on the other side Kansas City’s defense must bottle up Jackson’s scrambling ability, stay disciplined against Baltimore’s RPO-heavy looks, and force him into tighter windows downfield where turnovers can change the game. This contest also sets up as one where hidden yardage—special teams returns, field position, and kicking reliability—could prove decisive, particularly in a stadium as hostile as Arrowhead where momentum swings are amplified by crowd noise. From a betting perspective, Baltimore’s strong ATS history over the past two seasons suggests they’ve been reliable in big spots, while Kansas City’s early ATS struggles have cooled public confidence, leading to sharp money leaning toward the Ravens despite the Chiefs’ home-field advantage. The total, expected to sit in the low 50s, reflects the anticipation of offensive fireworks, but the reality could be more situational—a game where red-zone efficiency, third-down conversions, and turnover margin determine whether this lives up to its billing as a shootout or turns into a grind-it-out chess match between two coaching staffs known for creative adjustments. Ultimately, the Ravens and Chiefs know each other well and have a history of tight, dramatic contests, and this one projects to be no different, with the outcome hinging less on star power—since both Jackson and Mahomes will make their share of highlight plays—and more on which team executes better in high-leverage moments.

Baltimore Ravens NFL Preview

The Baltimore Ravens head into Arrowhead Stadium on September 28, 2025 looking to deliver a statement road win and shake off early inconsistency, and their fortunes will once again ride on Lamar Jackson’s ability to dictate pace with both his arm and his legs. Baltimore’s offense thrives when it leans into its balanced identity—using Jackson’s mobility to extend plays, Jonathan Taylor–esque power in the run game to grind yards, and an opportunistic passing attack to keep defenses from stacking the box—but they know that against Kansas City, efficiency and ball security are non-negotiable. The offensive line must give Jackson clean pockets and rushing lanes, because the Chiefs’ front seven will look to collapse the pocket and force him into hurried decisions, and the Ravens will counter by mixing RPOs, play-action, and quick throws to spread KC thin and limit pressure opportunities.

Defensively, Baltimore will aim to disrupt Patrick Mahomes’ rhythm by disguising coverages, sending pressure from multiple levels, and clamping down on Travis Kelce’s replacements in case the tight end remains limited; forcing Mahomes to rely on less experienced weapons increases the chance of incompletions or turnovers. The secondary, led by a physical cornerback group, must stay disciplined against Kansas City’s vertical shots and avoid breakdowns on improvised plays, where Mahomes often excels. Special teams could be a quiet advantage for Baltimore, as field position and hidden yardage are crucial in matchups of this magnitude, especially when facing a hostile crowd at Arrowhead. From a betting perspective, the Ravens’ 1–2 ATS record this season suggests inconsistency, but their broader two-year ATS track record shows they often rise to the occasion in marquee games, while Kansas City’s 0–2 ATS start raises questions about whether the market is still overvaluing them. For Baltimore to seize this opportunity, they must start fast, limit self-inflicted mistakes, and rely on Jackson’s improvisation without becoming one-dimensional. If they can execute that formula and match Kansas City’s intensity, the Ravens have every chance to silence the crowd and walk away with a defining win that would reestablish them as one of the AFC’s most dangerous teams.

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Arrowhead Stadium on September 28, 2025 to face the Kansas City Chiefs in what promises to be a clash of two high-powered offenses and playoff contenders. Early indications lean toward a tight betting landscape — KC has struggled in 2025 and Baltimore has shown flashes of strength, making this one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 4 slate. Baltimore vs Kansas City AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Sep 28. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Kansas City Chiefs NFL Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium on September 28, 2025 with urgency in the air, sitting at 0–2 ATS to begin the season and facing mounting questions about whether their offensive inconsistencies are temporary growing pains or a sign of deeper issues. Patrick Mahomes remains the centerpiece of everything they do, but he has been forced to shoulder even more responsibility with Travis Kelce battling through health concerns and a supporting cast of receivers that has yet to consistently separate against top-tier defenses. This matchup against Baltimore provides both a challenge and an opportunity: the Ravens’ defense is aggressive, versatile, and more than capable of forcing mistakes, so Kansas City’s offensive line must step up to give Mahomes the time he needs to extend plays and find mismatches. Expect Andy Reid to mix in more quick passes, creative route combinations, and perhaps increased reliance on running backs as pass catchers to offset Baltimore’s pass rush and prevent Mahomes from facing constant third-and-long situations.

Defensively, the Chiefs know the key will be containing Lamar Jackson’s mobility—assigning spies, maintaining edge discipline, and staying gap-sound in the trenches will be critical, as Jackson can flip games with a single scramble if lanes open up. The secondary will be tested by Baltimore’s layered RPO looks and quick strikes, and they must avoid giving up explosive plays after extended breakdowns. Special teams execution will also be crucial, as flipping field position or capitalizing on long field goals could tilt momentum in a game expected to be tightly contested. From a betting standpoint, Kansas City’s failure to cover early this season has dented public confidence, but Arrowhead remains one of the league’s most intimidating environments, and historically Mahomes has excelled in bounce-back spots at home. For the Chiefs to regain momentum, they must play clean football, reestablish rhythm offensively even if it requires spreading touches beyond Kelce, and use their defensive speed to neutralize Baltimore’s misdirection and ground game. If Mahomes finds his groove and the Chiefs’ defense can limit Jackson’s impact, Kansas City has every chance to remind the AFC why Arrowhead remains one of the toughest places for any opponent to leave victorious.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Ravens and Chiefs play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Sep seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Jackson over 39.5 Rushing Yards.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every simulation between the Ravens and Chiefs and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most watching on the linear correlation of weight knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on Baltimore’s strength factors between a Ravens team going up against a possibly improved Chiefs team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Baltimore vs Kansas City picks, computer picks Ravens vs Chiefs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 10/9 PHI@NYG UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Ravens Betting Trends

Baltimore enters the game with a 1–2 ATS record this season, reflecting some inconsistency in covering lines despite expectations.

Chiefs Betting Trends

Kansas City has had difficulty covering in 2025, sitting at 0–2 ATS so far, a surprising trend given their pedigree and past performance as favorites.

Ravens vs. Chiefs Matchup Trends

Baltimore’s historical ATS strength is notable — they’ve produced a 21–12–1 ATS record over the past two seasons, one of the more profitable trends in the league. Meanwhile, early betting markets have shown sharp money fading Kansas City, especially with concerns about injuries and offensive rhythm.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City Game Info

Baltimore vs Kansas City starts on September 28, 2025 at 4:25 PM EST.

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Spread: Kansas City +2.5
Moneyline: Baltimore -147, Kansas City +124
Over/Under: 48.5

Baltimore: (1-2)  |  Kansas City: (2-3)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Jackson over 39.5 Rushing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Baltimore’s historical ATS strength is notable — they’ve produced a 21–12–1 ATS record over the past two seasons, one of the more profitable trends in the league. Meanwhile, early betting markets have shown sharp money fading Kansas City, especially with concerns about injuries and offensive rhythm.

BAL trend: Baltimore enters the game with a 1–2 ATS record this season, reflecting some inconsistency in covering lines despite expectations.

KC trend: Kansas City has had difficulty covering in 2025, sitting at 0–2 ATS so far, a surprising trend given their pedigree and past performance as favorites.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Baltimore vs. Kansas City Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Baltimore vs Kansas City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Baltimore vs Kansas City Opening Odds

BAL Moneyline: -147
KC Moneyline: +124
BAL Spread: -2.5
KC Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 48.5

Baltimore vs Kansas City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 9, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Giants
-400
+315
-7.5 (-104)
+7.5 (-118)
O 40.5 (-115)
U 40.5 (-105)
Oct 12, 2025 9:30AM EDT
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
10/12/25 9:30AM
Broncos
Jets
-405
+320
-7 (-118)
+7 (-104)
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/12/25 1PM
Seahawks
Jaguars
-104
-112
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-102)
O 47.5 (-105)
U 47.5 (-115)
Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
10/12/25 1PM
Patriots
Saints
-180
+152
-3.5 (-105)
+3.5 (-115)
O 45.5 (-115)
U 45.5 (-105)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Browns
Steelers
+225
-275
+5.5 (-102)
-5.5 (-120)
O 38.5 (-108)
U 38.5 (-112)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
10/12/25 1:01PM
Chargers
Dolphins
-190
+160
-4.5 (-102)
+4.5 (-120)
O 43.5 (-112)
U 43.5 (-108)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
10/12/25 1:01PM
Rams
Ravens
-370
+295
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Panthers
-172
+144
-3 (-120)
+3 (-102)
O 49.5 (-108)
U 49.5 (-112)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cardinals
Colts
+295
-370
+7.5 (-115)
-7.5 (-105)
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
10/12/25 4:06PM
Titans
Raiders
+180
-215
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
O 41.5 (-108)
U 41.5 (-112)
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
10/12/25 4:26PM
Bengals
Packers
+730
-1150
+14.5 (-115)
-14.5 (-105)
O 44.5 (-104)
U 44.5 (-118)
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10/12/25 4:26PM
49ers
Buccaneers
+130
-154
+3 (-115)
-3 (-105)
O 47.5 (-108)
U 47.5 (-112)
Oct 12, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
10/12/25 8:20PM
Lions
Chiefs
+118
-138
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
O 52.5 (-110)
U 52.5 (-110)
Oct 13, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
10/13/25 7:15PM
Bills
Falcons
-230
+190
-4.5 (-115)
+4.5 (-105)
O 49.5 (-115)
U 49.5 (-105)
Oct 13, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Washington Commanders
10/13/25 8:16PM
Bears
Commanders
+188
-225
+4.5 (-112)
-4.5 (-108)
O 49.5 (-115)
U 49.5 (-105)
Oct 16, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
10/16/25 8:16PM
Steelers
Bengals
-230
+190
-4.5 (-112)
+4.5 (-108)
O 42.5 (-115)
U 42.5 (-105)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs on September 28, 2025 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
HOU@BAL HOU -125 58.5% 7 WIN
DET@CIN DET -10 55.6% 5 WIN
DAL@NYJ NYJ +1.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
TB@SEA TB +3.5 54.9% 4 WIN
TEN@ARI ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) 54.9% 4 LOSS
DEN@PHI DEN +4.5 57.5% 7 WIN
MIA@CAR TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS 54.5% 4 WIN
LV@IND ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 WIN
SF@LAR DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.7% 5 WIN
NYJ@MIA NYJ +3 53.8 3 LOSS
CIN@DEN DEN -7.5 54.8 4 WIN
NYJ@MIA OVER 44 52.9% 2 WIN
CIN@DEN UNDER 44.5 53.7% 3 WIN
NYJ@MIA GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS 53.7% 3 WIN
CIN@DEN TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS 55.5% 5 LOSS
WAS@ATL ATL -2.5 54.3 4 WIN
BAL@KC BAL -2.5 56.3% 6 LOSS
TEN@HOU TEN +7.5 57.9% 7 LOSS
LAC@NYG LAC -6 57.3% 7 LOSS
NO@BUF UNDER 48.5 55.1% 3 LOSS
GB@DAL JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS 55.5% 5 LOSS
CAR@NE DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 LOSS
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS
GB@CLE GB -7 54.3% 4 LOSS
ARI@SF ARI +3 57.7% 6 WIN
KC@NYG PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
GB@CLE JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIA@BUF TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@LV LAC -3 54.9% 4 WIN
TB@HOU BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 54.4% 4 WIN
CHI@DET DET -6.5 54.3% 4 WIN
DEN@IND DEN -118 60.1% 10 LOSS
PHI@KC PHI -115 56.7% 6 WIN
SF@NO SF -3 58.8% 8 WIN
SEA@PIT OVER 40 54.9% 4 WIN
CAR@ARI BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
DEN@IND JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 54.7% 4 WIN
ATL@MIN BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 53.4% 3 WIN
WAS@GB WAS +3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
WAS@GB JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
MIN@CHI CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS 53.4% 3 LOSS
TEN@DEN DEN -8.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
SF@SEA SF -115 54.6% 4 WIN
SF@SEA KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS 54.6% 4 WIN
CAR@JAC TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT 56.1% 6 LOSS