Patriots vs. Dolphins
Prediction, Odds & Props
Sep 14 | NFL AI Picks
Updated: 2025-09-07T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
AFC East tension hits Hard Rock Stadium as the New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, September 14, 2025, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers opened with Miami as a slight home favorite and a total in the low-to-mid 40s, signaling expectations for a tight, defense-tilted game unless one offense finds explosives.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Sep 14, 2025
Start Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins Record: (0-1)
Patriots Record: (0-1)
OPENING ODDS
NE Moneyline: +105
MIA Moneyline: -125
NE Spread: +1.5
MIA Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 44
NE
Betting Trends
- New England finished 2024 at 7–9–1 against the spread.
MIA
Betting Trends
- Miami went 7–10 ATS in 2024.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Early Week 2 numbers list Miami around –1.5 with an over/under near 43.5, a modest edge reflecting both teams’ losing Week 1 results and last year’s near-break-even ATS profiles. Market movement bears watching given quarterback health and pace concerns for both offenses.
NE vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Maye under 224.5 Passing Yards.
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New England vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 9/14/25
Red-zone execution is poised to be a turning point, as Miami has built creative packages with orbit motion, switch releases, and tight end leaks to free up easy scores, while New England must rely on sprint-outs, condensed sets, and misdirection to create leverage without asking their quarterback to hang in long-developing concepts against pressure, and whichever team finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals likely controls the game script; special teams loom as a critical factor in the South Florida heat, with directional punting, disciplined coverage, and reliable kicking potentially swinging hidden yardage that is magnified in a game lined with a modest total, and penalty discipline will be paramount given how often this rivalry has turned on extended or stalled drives; ultimately, if Miami reestablishes the run-pass marriage that makes its offense nearly unstoppable, protects Tagovailoa, and leverages its speed to stretch New England horizontally and vertically, the Dolphins have the edge to seize control in front of their home crowd, but if the Patriots’ front compresses the pocket, the secondary tackles cleanly after the catch, and the offense sustains just enough drives to keep Miami’s defense honest, New England has a viable path to drag the game into a fourth-quarter one-possession script where a single turnover, hidden special-teams play, or well-timed explosive could flip the outcome, making this matchup a test not just of talent but of situational precision, poise, and execution.
Harold Landry coming at ya 😮💨@NextGenStats | @awscloud pic.twitter.com/mUBWOvO3BK
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 9, 2025
New England Patriots NFL Preview
The New England Patriots travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 with the challenge of proving they can thrive under Mike Vrabel’s new leadership and win in a venue that has historically been unforgiving to them, and their path to success begins with pragmatic offense and disruptive defense designed to slow the tempo and force Miami into uncomfortable, sustained drives, because the Patriots know they cannot match the Dolphins’ speed weapon for weapon, so they must instead lean on patience, field position, and mistake-free football; offensively, New England will focus on quick-game concepts to neutralize Miami’s pass rush, using stick, slant-flat, and spacing routes to give their young quarterback rhythm throws while pairing these with gap and duo runs that punish light boxes and maintain balance, and the offensive line’s ability to handle simulated pressures and twists will be critical to preventing free rushers from derailing possessions, with tight ends and running backs likely tasked to chip and provide release valves on third downs; once the Dolphins squeeze the short zones, the Patriots will need to hit selectively off play-action with max protect to stress Miami’s safeties, looking for seam shots or deep crossers to steal chunk plays without exposing their quarterback to unnecessary risk, and tempo changes, motion, and hard counts may be used to steal cheap yards and slow down Miami’s edge defenders.
Defensively, Vrabel’s group will emphasize disguises, rotating safeties late and mixing two-high shells to cap explosives while spinning into trap looks to take away the slants and digs that feed Miami’s quick rhythm game, and the defensive line must collapse the pocket inside-out to prevent Tua Tagovailoa from delivering on schedule, with linebackers walling off crossers and rallying to tackle Hill and Waddle before short gains turn into game-breaking plays; in the red zone, the Patriots must hold Miami to field goals by forcing multiple perfect plays rather than conceding leverage through penalties or blown assignments, and their offense will need to respond with efficient constraint plays like sprint-outs and tight end leaks that shorten reads and create manageable scoring chances; special teams remain a possible edge for New England, with directional punting, disciplined coverage, and reliable kicking offering the opportunity to control hidden yardage in what oddsmakers expect to be a low-to-mid total game, and the Patriots will emphasize clean execution in the South Florida heat where mistakes are magnified; ultimately, New England’s upset bid hinges on turnover margin, as a strip-sack, tipped interception, or hidden special-teams play could swing momentum, and if they can stay within striking distance into the fourth quarter by avoiding offensive miscues, tackling soundly, and taking advantage of limited red-zone trips, the Patriots have the toughness, coaching, and situational discipline to turn a narrow betting line into a rivalry upset, but it will demand their cleanest performance to overcome the Dolphins’ home-field edge and explosive ceiling.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Miami Dolphins NFL Preview
The Miami Dolphins return to Hard Rock Stadium for their Week 2 home matchup with the New England Patriots knowing that divisional games like this one often define playoff positioning down the stretch, and after a rocky opener the focus for Mike McDaniel’s team will be recalibrating their offensive rhythm and reestablishing the balance that makes their attack nearly impossible to defend, which begins with using motion, spacing, and run-pass marriage to open up the field for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle; the Dolphins’ offensive identity relies on forcing defenses to declare early with pre-snap shifts, stretching the field horizontally with wide zone and split-flow runs, and then attacking the vacated space with quick slants, RPOs, and layered crossers that put defenders in constant conflict, and when their offensive line provides Tua with a clean pocket, his timing and accuracy allow Miami to operate on schedule and create explosive gains off short throws that become long ones thanks to speed after the catch, but if protection leaks, McDaniel can pivot to sprint-outs, under-center play-action, and chip-release designs to buy time while still keeping defenses honest; in the red zone Miami thrives on condensed formations, orbit motion, and creative sequencing, pairing shovel passes or jet sweeps with switch releases and tight end leaks to generate open looks without needing to rely on contested throws, and those designs will be critical against a Patriots defense that prides itself on forcing field goals instead of touchdowns, meaning efficiency in the scoring area could determine the entire game script.
Defensively, the Dolphins must focus on knocking New England off schedule early, winning first down with gap integrity and penetration to force third-and-long where they can unleash simulated pressures and force a young quarterback into difficult reads, and their corners will be tasked with disrupting timing at the line while safeties rotate late to confuse progression order, because if the Patriots are allowed to dink-and-dunk their way downfield, they can shrink possessions and keep Miami’s offense off the field; tackling discipline is paramount, as the Patriots will happily accept five-yard completions and hope to break them into bigger gains if Miami is not crisp in the open field, so linebackers and safeties must swarm and finish to prevent YAC; special teams, an area that often decides close divisional games, will also be a point of emphasis, with Jason Sanders’ reliability and coverage discipline offering Miami the ability to tilt field position and avoid giving New England cheap points or short fields, and hidden yardage in the return game could be decisive in a game where both defenses are capable of controlling stretches; ultimately, Miami’s success hinges on staying true to its offensive core—motion, spacing, and speed—while finishing drives with sevens rather than threes and leaning on a pass rush that becomes more dangerous with a lead, because if they control tempo, protect Tua, and force New England into a pass-heavy chase script, the Dolphins’ speed and creativity should allow them to dictate terms and secure a divisional home win that steadies their season and reminds the AFC that Hard Rock Stadium remains one of the most difficult venues for visiting teams.
Final. pic.twitter.com/YYdDmNwGp0
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 7, 2025
New England vs. Miami Prop Picks (AI)
New England vs. Miami Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every past game between the Patriots and Dolphins and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most watching on the growing emphasis human bettors regularly put on Miami’s strength factors between a Patriots team going up against a possibly unhealthy Dolphins team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI New England vs Miami picks, computer picks Patriots vs Dolphins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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NFL | 10/9 | PHI@NYG | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.
Patriots Betting Trends
New England finished 2024 at 7–9–1 against the spread.
Dolphins Betting Trends
Miami went 7–10 ATS in 2024.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Matchup Trends
Early Week 2 numbers list Miami around –1.5 with an over/under near 43.5, a modest edge reflecting both teams’ losing Week 1 results and last year’s near-break-even ATS profiles. Market movement bears watching given quarterback health and pace concerns for both offenses.
New England vs. Miami Game Info
What time does New England vs Miami start on September 14, 2025?
New England vs Miami starts on September 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM EST.
Where is New England vs Miami being played?
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium.
What are the opening odds for New England vs Miami?
Spread: Miami -1.5
Moneyline: New England +105, Miami -125
Over/Under: 44
What are the records for New England vs Miami?
New England: (0-1) | Miami: (0-1)
What is the AI best bet for New England vs Miami?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Maye under 224.5 Passing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are New England vs Miami trending bets?
Early Week 2 numbers list Miami around –1.5 with an over/under near 43.5, a modest edge reflecting both teams’ losing Week 1 results and last year’s near-break-even ATS profiles. Market movement bears watching given quarterback health and pace concerns for both offenses.
What are New England trending bets?
NE trend: New England finished 2024 at 7–9–1 against the spread.
What are Miami trending bets?
MIA trend: Miami went 7–10 ATS in 2024.
Where can I find AI Picks for New England vs Miami?
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
New England vs. Miami Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the New England vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
New England vs Miami Opening Odds
NE Moneyline:
+105 MIA Moneyline: -125
NE Spread: +1.5
MIA Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 44
New England vs Miami Live Odds
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---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 9, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Giants
|
–
–
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-420
+305
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-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
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O 40.5 (-115)
U 40.5 (-105)
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New York Jets
10/12/25 9:30AM
Broncos
Jets
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–
–
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-400
+300
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-7 (-111)
+7 (-111)
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O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
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Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/12/25 1PM
Seahawks
Jaguars
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–
–
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-108
-112
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-1 (+100)
+1 (-125)
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O 47.5 (-107)
U 47.5 (-114)
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Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
10/12/25 1PM
Patriots
Saints
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–
–
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-193
+155
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-3.5 (+100)
+3.5 (-121)
|
O 45.5 (-115)
U 45.5 (-106)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Browns
Steelers
|
–
–
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+215
-275
|
+5.5 (+100)
-5.5 (-121)
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O 38.5 (-109)
U 38.5 (-112)
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
10/12/25 1:01PM
Chargers
Dolphins
|
–
–
|
-213
+170
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-4 (-109)
+4 (-112)
|
O 43.5 (-121)
U 43.5 (+100)
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
10/12/25 1:01PM
Rams
Ravens
|
–
–
|
-400
+305
|
-7.5 (-108)
+7.5 (-113)
|
O 44.5 (-113)
U 44.5 (-108)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Panthers
|
–
–
|
-176
+140
|
-3 (-109)
+3 (-112)
|
O 49.5 (-112)
U 49.5 (-109)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cardinals
Colts
|
–
–
|
+275
-360
|
+7.5 (-111)
-7.5 (-110)
|
O 46.5 (-113)
U 46.5 (-108)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
10/12/25 4:06PM
Titans
Raiders
|
–
–
|
+185
-235
|
+4.5 (-117)
-4.5 (-105)
|
O 41.5 (-112)
U 41.5 (-109)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
10/12/25 4:26PM
Bengals
Packers
|
–
–
|
+700
-1250
|
+14 (-107)
-14 (-113)
|
O 44.5 (-109)
U 44.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10/12/25 4:26PM
49ers
Buccaneers
|
–
–
|
+135
-164
|
+3 (-108)
-3 (-113)
|
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
10/12/25 8:20PM
Lions
Chiefs
|
–
–
|
+115
-135
|
+2 (-110)
-2 (-110)
|
O 53 (-110)
U 53 (-110)
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Oct 13, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
10/13/25 7:15PM
Bills
Falcons
|
–
–
|
-230
+180
|
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
|
O 49.5 (-114)
U 49.5 (-106)
|
|
Oct 13, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Washington Commanders
10/13/25 8:16PM
Bears
Commanders
|
–
–
|
+185
-230
|
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-109)
|
O 50 (-108)
U 50 (-113)
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Oct 16, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
10/16/25 8:16PM
Steelers
Bengals
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–
–
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-240
+185
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-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
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O 43 (-110)
U 43 (-110)
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NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins on September 14, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
HOU@BAL | HOU -125 | 58.5% | 7 | WIN |
DET@CIN | DET -10 | 55.6% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@NYJ | NYJ +1.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@SEA | TB +3.5 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TEN@ARI | ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@PHI | DEN +4.5 | 57.5% | 7 | WIN |
MIA@CAR | TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
LV@IND | ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
SF@LAR | DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | NYJ +3 | 53.8 | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
GB@CLE | GB -7 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
ARI@SF | ARI +3 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
KC@NYG | PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
GB@CLE | JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
MIA@BUF | TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
LAC@LV | LAC -3 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TB@HOU | BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
CHI@DET | DET -6.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
DEN@IND | DEN -118 | 60.1% | 10 | LOSS |
PHI@KC | PHI -115 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
SF@NO | SF -3 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
SEA@PIT | OVER 40 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
CAR@ARI | BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
DEN@IND | JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
ATL@MIN | BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@GB | WAS +3.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
WAS@GB | JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIN@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
TEN@DEN | DEN -8.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
SF@SEA | SF -115 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
SF@SEA | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
CAR@JAC | TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |