Patriots vs. Dolphins
Prediction, Odds & Props
Sep 14 | NFL AI Picks

Updated: 2025-09-07T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

AFC East tension hits Hard Rock Stadium as the New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, September 14, 2025, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers opened with Miami as a slight home favorite and a total in the low-to-mid 40s, signaling expectations for a tight, defense-tilted game unless one offense finds explosives.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Sep 14, 2025

Start Time: 1:00 PM EST​

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium​

Dolphins Record: (0-1)

Patriots Record: (0-1)

OPENING ODDS

NE Moneyline: +105

MIA Moneyline: -125

NE Spread: +1.5

MIA Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 44

NE
Betting Trends

  • New England finished 2024 at 7–9–1 against the spread.

MIA
Betting Trends

  • Miami went 7–10 ATS in 2024.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Early Week 2 numbers list Miami around –1.5 with an over/under near 43.5, a modest edge reflecting both teams’ losing Week 1 results and last year’s near-break-even ATS profiles. Market movement bears watching given quarterback health and pace concerns for both offenses.

NE vs. MIA
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Maye under 224.5 Passing Yards.

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New England vs Miami Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 9/14/25

The Week 2 AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins on September 14, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium carries layered intrigue, with Miami favored at home after an uneven opener and New England seeking to assert its new identity under Mike Vrabel, and the contest shapes up as a battle of contrasting philosophies: Miami’s space-and-speed attack that thrives on rhythm, pre-snap motion, and explosive plays versus New England’s more methodical, complementary style that aims to control tempo, muddy reads, and lean on defense and special teams to create edges in a hostile environment; for Miami, the formula is familiar—use wide zone and split-flow runs to stretch the Patriots’ front and set up RPOs and quick-game slants for Tua Tagovailoa, then hit Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle on crossers once linebackers step up, and when the Dolphins sequence effectively, their efficiency forces defenses to play on their heels, but the key will be keeping Tua clean against simulated pressures and late rotations that Vrabel’s staff will deploy to disrupt timing, as New England will almost certainly prioritize capping explosives with two-high shells and spinning safeties late to steal slant and dig windows; on the other side, New England’s offense knows it cannot match Miami big play for big play, so the Patriots will try to manufacture balance through gap and duo runs paired with quick-game throws—stick, hitches, and spacing—to stay ahead of schedule, and once Miami tightens on the short zones, they can selectively dial up max-protect play-action shots to a tight end or slot receiver, though that requires the offensive line to hold firm against Miami’s edge rushers and linebackers who excel at disguising blitz looks.

Red-zone execution is poised to be a turning point, as Miami has built creative packages with orbit motion, switch releases, and tight end leaks to free up easy scores, while New England must rely on sprint-outs, condensed sets, and misdirection to create leverage without asking their quarterback to hang in long-developing concepts against pressure, and whichever team finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals likely controls the game script; special teams loom as a critical factor in the South Florida heat, with directional punting, disciplined coverage, and reliable kicking potentially swinging hidden yardage that is magnified in a game lined with a modest total, and penalty discipline will be paramount given how often this rivalry has turned on extended or stalled drives; ultimately, if Miami reestablishes the run-pass marriage that makes its offense nearly unstoppable, protects Tagovailoa, and leverages its speed to stretch New England horizontally and vertically, the Dolphins have the edge to seize control in front of their home crowd, but if the Patriots’ front compresses the pocket, the secondary tackles cleanly after the catch, and the offense sustains just enough drives to keep Miami’s defense honest, New England has a viable path to drag the game into a fourth-quarter one-possession script where a single turnover, hidden special-teams play, or well-timed explosive could flip the outcome, making this matchup a test not just of talent but of situational precision, poise, and execution.

New England Patriots NFL Preview

The New England Patriots travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 with the challenge of proving they can thrive under Mike Vrabel’s new leadership and win in a venue that has historically been unforgiving to them, and their path to success begins with pragmatic offense and disruptive defense designed to slow the tempo and force Miami into uncomfortable, sustained drives, because the Patriots know they cannot match the Dolphins’ speed weapon for weapon, so they must instead lean on patience, field position, and mistake-free football; offensively, New England will focus on quick-game concepts to neutralize Miami’s pass rush, using stick, slant-flat, and spacing routes to give their young quarterback rhythm throws while pairing these with gap and duo runs that punish light boxes and maintain balance, and the offensive line’s ability to handle simulated pressures and twists will be critical to preventing free rushers from derailing possessions, with tight ends and running backs likely tasked to chip and provide release valves on third downs; once the Dolphins squeeze the short zones, the Patriots will need to hit selectively off play-action with max protect to stress Miami’s safeties, looking for seam shots or deep crossers to steal chunk plays without exposing their quarterback to unnecessary risk, and tempo changes, motion, and hard counts may be used to steal cheap yards and slow down Miami’s edge defenders.

Defensively, Vrabel’s group will emphasize disguises, rotating safeties late and mixing two-high shells to cap explosives while spinning into trap looks to take away the slants and digs that feed Miami’s quick rhythm game, and the defensive line must collapse the pocket inside-out to prevent Tua Tagovailoa from delivering on schedule, with linebackers walling off crossers and rallying to tackle Hill and Waddle before short gains turn into game-breaking plays; in the red zone, the Patriots must hold Miami to field goals by forcing multiple perfect plays rather than conceding leverage through penalties or blown assignments, and their offense will need to respond with efficient constraint plays like sprint-outs and tight end leaks that shorten reads and create manageable scoring chances; special teams remain a possible edge for New England, with directional punting, disciplined coverage, and reliable kicking offering the opportunity to control hidden yardage in what oddsmakers expect to be a low-to-mid total game, and the Patriots will emphasize clean execution in the South Florida heat where mistakes are magnified; ultimately, New England’s upset bid hinges on turnover margin, as a strip-sack, tipped interception, or hidden special-teams play could swing momentum, and if they can stay within striking distance into the fourth quarter by avoiding offensive miscues, tackling soundly, and taking advantage of limited red-zone trips, the Patriots have the toughness, coaching, and situational discipline to turn a narrow betting line into a rivalry upset, but it will demand their cleanest performance to overcome the Dolphins’ home-field edge and explosive ceiling.

AFC East tension hits Hard Rock Stadium as the New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, September 14, 2025, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers opened with Miami as a slight home favorite and a total in the low-to-mid 40s, signaling expectations for a tight, defense-tilted game unless one offense finds explosives.  New England vs Miami AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Sep 14. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Miami Dolphins NFL Preview

The Miami Dolphins return to Hard Rock Stadium for their Week 2 home matchup with the New England Patriots knowing that divisional games like this one often define playoff positioning down the stretch, and after a rocky opener the focus for Mike McDaniel’s team will be recalibrating their offensive rhythm and reestablishing the balance that makes their attack nearly impossible to defend, which begins with using motion, spacing, and run-pass marriage to open up the field for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle; the Dolphins’ offensive identity relies on forcing defenses to declare early with pre-snap shifts, stretching the field horizontally with wide zone and split-flow runs, and then attacking the vacated space with quick slants, RPOs, and layered crossers that put defenders in constant conflict, and when their offensive line provides Tua with a clean pocket, his timing and accuracy allow Miami to operate on schedule and create explosive gains off short throws that become long ones thanks to speed after the catch, but if protection leaks, McDaniel can pivot to sprint-outs, under-center play-action, and chip-release designs to buy time while still keeping defenses honest; in the red zone Miami thrives on condensed formations, orbit motion, and creative sequencing, pairing shovel passes or jet sweeps with switch releases and tight end leaks to generate open looks without needing to rely on contested throws, and those designs will be critical against a Patriots defense that prides itself on forcing field goals instead of touchdowns, meaning efficiency in the scoring area could determine the entire game script.

Defensively, the Dolphins must focus on knocking New England off schedule early, winning first down with gap integrity and penetration to force third-and-long where they can unleash simulated pressures and force a young quarterback into difficult reads, and their corners will be tasked with disrupting timing at the line while safeties rotate late to confuse progression order, because if the Patriots are allowed to dink-and-dunk their way downfield, they can shrink possessions and keep Miami’s offense off the field; tackling discipline is paramount, as the Patriots will happily accept five-yard completions and hope to break them into bigger gains if Miami is not crisp in the open field, so linebackers and safeties must swarm and finish to prevent YAC; special teams, an area that often decides close divisional games, will also be a point of emphasis, with Jason Sanders’ reliability and coverage discipline offering Miami the ability to tilt field position and avoid giving New England cheap points or short fields, and hidden yardage in the return game could be decisive in a game where both defenses are capable of controlling stretches; ultimately, Miami’s success hinges on staying true to its offensive core—motion, spacing, and speed—while finishing drives with sevens rather than threes and leaning on a pass rush that becomes more dangerous with a lead, because if they control tempo, protect Tua, and force New England into a pass-heavy chase script, the Dolphins’ speed and creativity should allow them to dictate terms and secure a divisional home win that steadies their season and reminds the AFC that Hard Rock Stadium remains one of the most difficult venues for visiting teams.

New England vs. Miami Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Patriots and Dolphins play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Hard Rock Stadium in Sep can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Maye under 224.5 Passing Yards.

New England vs. Miami Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every past game between the Patriots and Dolphins and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most watching on the growing emphasis human bettors regularly put on Miami’s strength factors between a Patriots team going up against a possibly unhealthy Dolphins team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI New England vs Miami picks, computer picks Patriots vs Dolphins, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 10/9 PHI@NYG UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Patriots Betting Trends

New England finished 2024 at 7–9–1 against the spread.

Dolphins Betting Trends

Miami went 7–10 ATS in 2024.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Matchup Trends

Early Week 2 numbers list Miami around –1.5 with an over/under near 43.5, a modest edge reflecting both teams’ losing Week 1 results and last year’s near-break-even ATS profiles. Market movement bears watching given quarterback health and pace concerns for both offenses.

New England vs. Miami Game Info

New England vs Miami starts on September 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM EST.

Spread: Miami -1.5
Moneyline: New England +105, Miami -125
Over/Under: 44

New England: (0-1)  |  Miami: (0-1)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Maye under 224.5 Passing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Early Week 2 numbers list Miami around –1.5 with an over/under near 43.5, a modest edge reflecting both teams’ losing Week 1 results and last year’s near-break-even ATS profiles. Market movement bears watching given quarterback health and pace concerns for both offenses.

NE trend: New England finished 2024 at 7–9–1 against the spread.

MIA trend: Miami went 7–10 ATS in 2024.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New England vs. Miami Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the New England vs Miami trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

New England vs Miami Opening Odds

NE Moneyline: +105
MIA Moneyline: -125
NE Spread: +1.5
MIA Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 44

New England vs Miami Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 9, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Giants
-420
+305
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
O 40.5 (-115)
U 40.5 (-105)
Oct 12, 2025 9:30AM EDT
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
10/12/25 9:30AM
Broncos
Jets
-400
+300
-7 (-111)
+7 (-111)
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/12/25 1PM
Seahawks
Jaguars
-108
-112
-1 (+100)
+1 (-125)
O 47.5 (-107)
U 47.5 (-114)
Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
10/12/25 1PM
Patriots
Saints
-193
+155
-3.5 (+100)
+3.5 (-121)
O 45.5 (-115)
U 45.5 (-106)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Browns
Steelers
+215
-275
+5.5 (+100)
-5.5 (-121)
O 38.5 (-109)
U 38.5 (-112)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
10/12/25 1:01PM
Chargers
Dolphins
-213
+170
-4 (-109)
+4 (-112)
O 43.5 (-121)
U 43.5 (+100)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
10/12/25 1:01PM
Rams
Ravens
-400
+305
-7.5 (-108)
+7.5 (-113)
O 44.5 (-113)
U 44.5 (-108)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Panthers
-176
+140
-3 (-109)
+3 (-112)
O 49.5 (-112)
U 49.5 (-109)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cardinals
Colts
+275
-360
+7.5 (-111)
-7.5 (-110)
O 46.5 (-113)
U 46.5 (-108)
Oct 12, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
10/12/25 4:06PM
Titans
Raiders
+185
-235
+4.5 (-117)
-4.5 (-105)
O 41.5 (-112)
U 41.5 (-109)
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
10/12/25 4:26PM
Bengals
Packers
+700
-1250
+14 (-107)
-14 (-113)
O 44.5 (-109)
U 44.5 (-112)
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10/12/25 4:26PM
49ers
Buccaneers
+135
-164
+3 (-108)
-3 (-113)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
10/12/25 8:20PM
Lions
Chiefs
+115
-135
+2 (-110)
-2 (-110)
O 53 (-110)
U 53 (-110)
Oct 13, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
10/13/25 7:15PM
Bills
Falcons
-230
+180
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
O 49.5 (-114)
U 49.5 (-106)
Oct 13, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Washington Commanders
10/13/25 8:16PM
Bears
Commanders
+185
-230
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-109)
O 50 (-108)
U 50 (-113)
Oct 16, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals
10/16/25 8:16PM
Steelers
Bengals
-240
+185
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
O 43 (-110)
U 43 (-110)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins on September 14, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
HOU@BAL HOU -125 58.5% 7 WIN
DET@CIN DET -10 55.6% 5 WIN
DAL@NYJ NYJ +1.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
TB@SEA TB +3.5 54.9% 4 WIN
TEN@ARI ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) 54.9% 4 LOSS
DEN@PHI DEN +4.5 57.5% 7 WIN
MIA@CAR TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS 54.5% 4 WIN
LV@IND ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 WIN
SF@LAR DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.7% 5 WIN
NYJ@MIA NYJ +3 53.8 3 LOSS
CIN@DEN DEN -7.5 54.8 4 WIN
NYJ@MIA OVER 44 52.9% 2 WIN
CIN@DEN UNDER 44.5 53.7% 3 WIN
NYJ@MIA GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS 53.7% 3 WIN
CIN@DEN TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS 55.5% 5 LOSS
WAS@ATL ATL -2.5 54.3 4 WIN
BAL@KC BAL -2.5 56.3% 6 LOSS
TEN@HOU TEN +7.5 57.9% 7 LOSS
LAC@NYG LAC -6 57.3% 7 LOSS
NO@BUF UNDER 48.5 55.1% 3 LOSS
GB@DAL JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS 55.5% 5 LOSS
CAR@NE DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 LOSS
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS
GB@CLE GB -7 54.3% 4 LOSS
ARI@SF ARI +3 57.7% 6 WIN
KC@NYG PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
GB@CLE JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIA@BUF TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@LV LAC -3 54.9% 4 WIN
TB@HOU BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 54.4% 4 WIN
CHI@DET DET -6.5 54.3% 4 WIN
DEN@IND DEN -118 60.1% 10 LOSS
PHI@KC PHI -115 56.7% 6 WIN
SF@NO SF -3 58.8% 8 WIN
SEA@PIT OVER 40 54.9% 4 WIN
CAR@ARI BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
DEN@IND JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 54.7% 4 WIN
ATL@MIN BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 53.4% 3 WIN
WAS@GB WAS +3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
WAS@GB JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
MIN@CHI CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS 53.4% 3 LOSS
TEN@DEN DEN -8.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
SF@SEA SF -115 54.6% 4 WIN
SF@SEA KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS 54.6% 4 WIN
CAR@JAC TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT 56.1% 6 LOSS