Bills vs Patriots Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Jan 05)

Updated: 2024-12-29T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) on January 5, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. With the Bills having secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, they are expected to rest key starters, while the Patriots aim to end a challenging season on a positive note.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jan 05, 2025

Start Time: 2:00 PM EST​

Venue: Gillette Stadium​

Patriots Record: (3-13)

Bills Record: (13-3)

OPENING ODDS

BUF Moneyline: -134

NE Moneyline: +113

BUF Spread: -2.5

NE Spread: +2.5

Over/Under: 38.5

BUF
Betting Trends

  • The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.

NE
Betting Trends

  • The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.

BUF vs. NE
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

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Buffalo vs New England Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 1/5/25

The upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots presents an intriguing scenario for both teams. The Bills, with a 13-3 record, have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and are expected to rest key players to preserve their health for the postseason. Quarterback Josh Allen and other starters may see limited or no action, providing an opportunity for backups to gain valuable playing time. On the other hand, the Patriots, enduring a 3-13 season, are looking to end on a high note. A loss would secure them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, a position they haven’t held since 1993. However, head coach Jerod Mayo has emphasized the importance of playing to win, indicating that the team will compete hard despite the potential draft implications. In their previous meeting on December 22, the Patriots narrowly lost to the Bills 24-21, demonstrating their ability to compete with one of the league’s top teams. With the Bills likely resting starters, the Patriots may have a better chance to capitalize and potentially secure a victory.

Betting lines reflect the anticipated competitiveness of this matchup. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under set at 38.5 points. Given the circumstances, bettors might find value in considering the Patriots to cover the spread, especially if the Bills’ backups are unable to maintain the same level of performance as the starters. For the Bills, this game serves as an opportunity to evaluate depth and ensure that key players are rested and healthy for the playoff run. Backup players will be eager to showcase their abilities, potentially leading to a spirited performance despite the absence of starters. The Patriots, meanwhile, are playing for pride and the chance to build momentum heading into the offseason. A win against a division rival, even one resting starters, could provide a morale boost and positive narrative to conclude a disappointing season. Overall, this matchup offers a unique dynamic, with the Bills balancing preparation for the playoffs and player health, while the Patriots seek to end their season positively. The interplay of these factors makes for an unpredictable and potentially exciting game.

Buffalo Bills NFL Preview

The Buffalo Bills, standing at 13-3, have already secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and are expected to approach their regular-season finale against the New England Patriots with caution. With their postseason position locked in, head coach Sean McDermott is likely to rest key starters, including quarterback Josh Allen, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and other top contributors. This strategy aims to ensure the team enters the playoffs healthy and prepared for a deep postseason run. Despite the expected absence of starters, the Bills remain a formidable opponent due to their depth across the roster. Backup quarterback Kyle Allen is anticipated to start, providing him with a valuable opportunity to gain in-game experience. Allen, known for his accuracy and decision-making, will look to lead the offense effectively while showcasing his capabilities as a reliable backup. Running back James Cook, who has played a significant role in the Bills’ rushing attack, may also see limited action, with younger players like Latavius Murray expected to take on a larger workload. The Bills’ offensive system, coordinated by Ken Dorsey, emphasizes versatility and adaptability. Even with backups on the field, Dorsey’s play-calling is likely to utilize the team’s depth at receiver and tight end to challenge New England’s defense. Players like wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid are poised to play larger roles, providing a glimpse of their potential impact in future seasons. Defensively, the Bills have been one of the league’s most consistent units, allowing an average of just 18.4 points per game, ranking among the top defenses in the NFL. While some key defensive players may be rested, the unit’s depth ensures a competitive presence on the field. Defensive linemen like Ed Oliver and linebackers such as Tyrel Dodson are expected to lead the charge in containing the Patriots’ offense. Special teams will remain a key factor for Buffalo, with kicker Tyler Bass continuing to deliver reliable performances throughout the season. Punter Sam Martin and the coverage units will play crucial roles in maintaining field position and limiting New England’s opportunities. As the Bills prepare for this matchup, their primary focus will be on staying healthy and executing their game plan with discipline. This game provides an opportunity for younger players and backups to gain valuable experience and showcase their skills, which could prove vital in the playoffs or future seasons. Keys to victory for the Bills include maintaining a balanced offensive approach, protecting Kyle Allen, and utilizing their depth to exploit New England’s weaknesses. Defensively, the focus will be on containing rookie quarterback Drake Maye and forcing turnovers to keep the Patriots’ offense off-balance. While this game may not impact the Bills’ playoff positioning, it serves as a chance to evaluate their roster depth and build momentum heading into the postseason. A strong performance, even with key players resting, would further reinforce Buffalo’s reputation as a well-rounded and disciplined team capable of making a serious championship run.

The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) on January 5, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. With the Bills having secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, they are expected to rest key starters, while the Patriots aim to end a challenging season on a positive note. Buffalo vs New England AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Jan 05. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

New England Patriots NFL Preview

The New England Patriots are set to conclude a challenging 3-13 season with a home game against the Buffalo Bills. Despite the difficulties faced throughout the year, the Patriots are focused on finishing strong under head coach Jerod Mayo. Mayo, in his first season as head coach, has faced scrutiny but remains committed to leading his team with determination. Offensively, the Patriots have struggled to find consistency. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential but has also experienced typical first-year challenges. The offensive line has been inconsistent, contributing to difficulties in both the passing and running games. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been a bright spot, providing a reliable option in the backfield. Wide receivers Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne have had moments of success but have been unable to consistently impact games. Defensively, the Patriots have had mixed results. The unit has shown the ability to make impactful plays but has also been susceptible to giving up significant yardage and points. Injuries have affected the depth and performance of the defense, with key players like defensive tackle Christian Barmore and cornerback Marcus Jones missing time. The secondary, while talented, has faced challenges against high-powered offenses. Special teams have been a relative strength for New England. Kicker Joey Slye has been dependable, and punter Bryce Baringer has effectively managed field position. However, the return game has lacked explosiveness, and coverage units have occasionally allowed substantial returns, areas that require attention moving forward. As the Patriots prepare to face the Bills, they are aware of the opportunity to capitalize on Buffalo potentially resting key starters. This game provides a chance for young players to gain valuable experience and for the team to build some positive momentum heading into the offseason. Keys to victory for the Patriots include protecting Maye to allow him to make plays, establishing a ground game to control the tempo, and improving defensive execution to limit the Bills’ productive offense. Special teams could also play a pivotal role in determining field position and scoring opportunities. While the Patriots’ record may not reflect it, the team has shown resilience in many of their games this season. A win against a top-tier division rival like the Bills, even if shorthanded, would provide a much-needed morale boost and a solid foundation for improvement in 2025.

Buffalo vs. New England Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through loads of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Bills and Patriots play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Gillette Stadium in Jan almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

Buffalo vs. New England Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every angle between the Bills and Patriots and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most focused on the growing factor knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on New England’s strength factors between a Bills team going up against a possibly unhealthy Patriots team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Buffalo vs New England picks, computer picks Bills vs Patriots, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Bills Betting Trends

The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.

Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.

Bills vs. Patriots Matchup Trends

In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.

Buffalo vs. New England Game Info

Buffalo vs New England starts on January 05, 2025 at 2:00 PM EST.

Spread: New England +2.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -134, New England +113
Over/Under: 38.5

Buffalo: (13-3)  |  New England: (3-13)

Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.

BUF trend: The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.

NE trend: The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Buffalo vs. New England Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Buffalo vs New England trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.

Buffalo vs New England Opening Odds

BUF Moneyline: -134
NE Moneyline: +113
BUF Spread: -2.5
NE Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 38.5

Buffalo vs New England Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 10, 2025 8:15PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers
11/10/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Packers
-105
-115
-1 (-110)
+1 (-110)
O 45 (-110)
U 45 (-110)
Nov 13, 2025 8:15PM EST
New York Jets
New England Patriots
11/13/25 8:15PM
Jets
Patriots
+550
-850
+12 (-110)
-12 (-110)
O 43 (-115)
U 43 (-105)
Nov 16, 2025 9:30AM EST
Washington Commanders
Miami Dolphins
11/16/25 9:30AM
Commanders
Dolphins
+130
-150
+2.5 (+100)
-2.5 (-120)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
11/16/25 1PM
Panthers
Falcons
+165
-195
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 42.5 (-110)
U 42.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
11/16/25 1PM
Bears
Vikings
+140
-165
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars
11/16/25 1PM
Chargers
Jaguars
-150
+130
-3 (+100)
+3 (-120)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
11/16/25 1PM
Packers
Giants
-460
+360
-7.5 (-120)
+7.5 (-102)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
11/16/25 1PM
Bengals
Steelers
+205
-245
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills
11/16/25 1PM
Buccaneers
Bills
+225
-275
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
11/16/25 1PM
Texans
Titans
-370
+285
-7 (-110)
+7 (-110)
O 39.5 (-105)
U 39.5 (-115)
Nov 16, 2025 4:05PM EST
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
11/16/25 4:05PM
49ers
Cardinals
-150
+130
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (+100)
O 49 (-115)
U 49 (-105)
Nov 16, 2025 4:05PM EST
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
11/16/25 4:05PM
Seahawks
Rams
+130
-150
+2.5 (+100)
-2.5 (-120)
O 48 (-115)
U 48 (-105)
Nov 16, 2025 4:25PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
11/16/25 4:25PM
Chiefs
Broncos
-210
+175
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
Nov 16, 2025 4:25PM EST
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
11/16/25 4:25PM
Ravens
Browns
-470
+345
-8 (-110)
+8 (-110)
O 41.5 (-115)
U 41.5 (-105)
Nov 16, 2025 8:20PM EST
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
11/16/25 8:20PM
Lions
Eagles
+104
-122
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-108)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Nov 17, 2025 8:15PM EST
Dallas Cowboys
Las Vegas Raiders
11/17/25 8:15PM
Cowboys
Raiders
-185
+160
-3.5 (+100)
+3.5 (-120)
O 50 (-110)
U 50 (-110)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots on January 05, 2025 at Gillette Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LV@DEN RILEY MOSS OVER 4.5 TACKLE + ASST 54.8% 4 WIN
LV@DEN UNDER 43 53.4% 2 WIN
ARI@DAL BUDDA BAKER OVER 7.5 TACKLES + ASSTS 54.4% 4 WIN
ARI@DAL GEORGE PICKENS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS 56.6% 6 WIN
DEN@HOU WIL LUTZ OVER 1.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 54.2% 3 LOSS
SEA@WAS SEA -3 56.7% 6 WIN
IND@PIT IND -3 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@TEN LAC -9.5 56.2% 6 LOSS
CHI@CIN CHI -2.5 52.6% 2 WIN
SEA@WAS OVER 48 52.9% 2 WIN
SEA@WAS JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 20.5 PASS COMP 56.7% 6 LOSS
JAC@LV JAC -140 64.2% 7 WIN
NO@LAR LAR -14 55.0% 4 WIN
DEN@HOU HOU -1.5 54.2% 3 LOSS
CAR@GB GB -12.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
SF@NYG NYG +2.5 56.1% 5 LOSS
BAL@MIA TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 0.5 INT 55.3% 5 LOSS
TB@NO TB -3.5 52.3% 1 WIN
GB@PIT GB -2.5 52.3% 1 WIN
SF@HOU SF +2.5 56.0% 6 LOSS
NYG@PHI NYG +7.5 53.9% 3 LOSS
BUF@CAR CAR +7.5 54.2% 3 LOSS
DAL@DEN DAL +3.5 55.0% 4 LOSS
MIA@ATL MIA +7 54.3% 4 WIN
CLE@NE CLE +7 56.8% 6 LOSS
TB@NO BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 15.5 RUSH YDS 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIN@LAC JUSTIN HERBERT PASS ATT UNDER 35.5 55.5% 5 WIN
TB@DET TB +6.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
TB@DET RACHAAD WHITE UNDER 14.5 RUSH ATT 54.4% 4 WIN
NE@TEN NE -6.5 55.2% 5 WIN
CAR@NYJ CAR -110 57.4 4 WIN
PHI@MIN PHI -130 58.0% 6 WIN
GB@ARI ARI +7 54.8% 5 WIN
NO@CHI NO +4.5 57.4% 7 LOSS
WAS@DAL JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 56.1% 5 WIN
GB@ARI JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 56.6% 6 WIN
PIT@CIN JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
BUF@ATL BUF -3.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
CHI@WAS JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 56.6% 6 WIN
TEN@LV UNDER 42 54.8% 3 WIN
DET@KC DET +2.5 55.7% 7 LOSS
SEA@JAC SEA -112 55.7% 5 WIN
LAC@MIA LAC -3.5 54.0% 3 LOSS
ARI@IND IND -8.5 55.6% 5 LOSS
TEN@LV TEN +4.5 56.7% 6 LOSS
LAR@BAL LAR -7 56.2% 6 WIN
SF@TB SF +3.5 57.2% 7 LOSS
CLE@PIT JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 LOSS
DEN@NYJ BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS 55.0% 4 LOSS
KC@JAC UNDER 45.5 54.9% 3 LOSS
KC@JAC PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP 56.6% 6 LOSS