Bills vs Patriots Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Jan 05)
Updated: 2024-12-29T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) on January 5, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. With the Bills having secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, they are expected to rest key starters, while the Patriots aim to end a challenging season on a positive note.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Jan 05, 2025
Start Time: 2:00 PM EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Patriots Record: (3-13)
Bills Record: (13-3)
OPENING ODDS
BUF Moneyline: -134
NE Moneyline: +113
BUF Spread: -2.5
NE Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 38.5
BUF
Betting Trends
- The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.
NE
Betting Trends
- The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.
BUF vs. NE
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
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Buffalo vs New England Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 1/5/25
Betting lines reflect the anticipated competitiveness of this matchup. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under set at 38.5 points. Given the circumstances, bettors might find value in considering the Patriots to cover the spread, especially if the Bills’ backups are unable to maintain the same level of performance as the starters. For the Bills, this game serves as an opportunity to evaluate depth and ensure that key players are rested and healthy for the playoff run. Backup players will be eager to showcase their abilities, potentially leading to a spirited performance despite the absence of starters. The Patriots, meanwhile, are playing for pride and the chance to build momentum heading into the offseason. A win against a division rival, even one resting starters, could provide a morale boost and positive narrative to conclude a disappointing season. Overall, this matchup offers a unique dynamic, with the Bills balancing preparation for the playoffs and player health, while the Patriots seek to end their season positively. The interplay of these factors makes for an unpredictable and potentially exciting game.
Putting his name in the @NFL history books. 👏
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 3, 2025
Josh Allen is having an MVP season: https://t.co/dWwVCeZuxC pic.twitter.com/TlZXdcaW9Z
Buffalo Bills NFL Preview
The Buffalo Bills, standing at 13-3, have already secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and are expected to approach their regular-season finale against the New England Patriots with caution. With their postseason position locked in, head coach Sean McDermott is likely to rest key starters, including quarterback Josh Allen, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and other top contributors. This strategy aims to ensure the team enters the playoffs healthy and prepared for a deep postseason run. Despite the expected absence of starters, the Bills remain a formidable opponent due to their depth across the roster. Backup quarterback Kyle Allen is anticipated to start, providing him with a valuable opportunity to gain in-game experience. Allen, known for his accuracy and decision-making, will look to lead the offense effectively while showcasing his capabilities as a reliable backup. Running back James Cook, who has played a significant role in the Bills’ rushing attack, may also see limited action, with younger players like Latavius Murray expected to take on a larger workload. The Bills’ offensive system, coordinated by Ken Dorsey, emphasizes versatility and adaptability. Even with backups on the field, Dorsey’s play-calling is likely to utilize the team’s depth at receiver and tight end to challenge New England’s defense. Players like wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid are poised to play larger roles, providing a glimpse of their potential impact in future seasons. Defensively, the Bills have been one of the league’s most consistent units, allowing an average of just 18.4 points per game, ranking among the top defenses in the NFL. While some key defensive players may be rested, the unit’s depth ensures a competitive presence on the field. Defensive linemen like Ed Oliver and linebackers such as Tyrel Dodson are expected to lead the charge in containing the Patriots’ offense. Special teams will remain a key factor for Buffalo, with kicker Tyler Bass continuing to deliver reliable performances throughout the season. Punter Sam Martin and the coverage units will play crucial roles in maintaining field position and limiting New England’s opportunities. As the Bills prepare for this matchup, their primary focus will be on staying healthy and executing their game plan with discipline. This game provides an opportunity for younger players and backups to gain valuable experience and showcase their skills, which could prove vital in the playoffs or future seasons. Keys to victory for the Bills include maintaining a balanced offensive approach, protecting Kyle Allen, and utilizing their depth to exploit New England’s weaknesses. Defensively, the focus will be on containing rookie quarterback Drake Maye and forcing turnovers to keep the Patriots’ offense off-balance. While this game may not impact the Bills’ playoff positioning, it serves as a chance to evaluate their roster depth and build momentum heading into the postseason. A strong performance, even with key players resting, would further reinforce Buffalo’s reputation as a well-rounded and disciplined team capable of making a serious championship run.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
New England Patriots NFL Preview
The New England Patriots are set to conclude a challenging 3-13 season with a home game against the Buffalo Bills. Despite the difficulties faced throughout the year, the Patriots are focused on finishing strong under head coach Jerod Mayo. Mayo, in his first season as head coach, has faced scrutiny but remains committed to leading his team with determination. Offensively, the Patriots have struggled to find consistency. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential but has also experienced typical first-year challenges. The offensive line has been inconsistent, contributing to difficulties in both the passing and running games. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been a bright spot, providing a reliable option in the backfield. Wide receivers Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne have had moments of success but have been unable to consistently impact games. Defensively, the Patriots have had mixed results. The unit has shown the ability to make impactful plays but has also been susceptible to giving up significant yardage and points. Injuries have affected the depth and performance of the defense, with key players like defensive tackle Christian Barmore and cornerback Marcus Jones missing time. The secondary, while talented, has faced challenges against high-powered offenses. Special teams have been a relative strength for New England. Kicker Joey Slye has been dependable, and punter Bryce Baringer has effectively managed field position. However, the return game has lacked explosiveness, and coverage units have occasionally allowed substantial returns, areas that require attention moving forward. As the Patriots prepare to face the Bills, they are aware of the opportunity to capitalize on Buffalo potentially resting key starters. This game provides a chance for young players to gain valuable experience and for the team to build some positive momentum heading into the offseason. Keys to victory for the Patriots include protecting Maye to allow him to make plays, establishing a ground game to control the tempo, and improving defensive execution to limit the Bills’ productive offense. Special teams could also play a pivotal role in determining field position and scoring opportunities. While the Patriots’ record may not reflect it, the team has shown resilience in many of their games this season. A win against a top-tier division rival like the Bills, even if shorthanded, would provide a much-needed morale boost and a solid foundation for improvement in 2025.
Patriots Thursday injury report: https://t.co/YPpjNKs8aB pic.twitter.com/qS6EnSFUbB
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 2, 2025
Buffalo vs. New England Prop Picks (AI)
Buffalo vs. New England Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every past game between the Bills and Patriots and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of factor knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on player performance factors between a Bills team going up against a possibly improved Patriots team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Buffalo vs New England picks, computer picks Bills vs Patriots, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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NFL | 10/20 | HOU@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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NFL | 10/20 | HOU@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.
Bills Betting Trends
The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.
Patriots Betting Trends
The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.
Bills vs. Patriots Matchup Trends
In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.
Buffalo vs. New England Game Info
What time does Buffalo vs New England start on January 05, 2025?
Buffalo vs New England starts on January 05, 2025 at 2:00 PM EST.
Where is Buffalo vs New England being played?
Venue: Gillette Stadium.
What are the opening odds for Buffalo vs New England?
Spread: New England +2.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -134, New England +113
Over/Under: 38.5
What are the records for Buffalo vs New England?
Buffalo: (13-3) | New England: (3-13)
What is the AI best bet for Buffalo vs New England?
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Buffalo vs New England trending bets?
In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.
What are Buffalo trending bets?
BUF trend: The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.
What are New England trending bets?
NE trend: The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.
Where can I find AI Picks for Buffalo vs New England?
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Buffalo vs. New England Odds
Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Buffalo vs New England trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Buffalo vs New England Opening Odds
BUF Moneyline:
-134 NE Moneyline: +113
BUF Spread: -2.5
NE Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 38.5
Buffalo vs New England Live Odds
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–
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+133
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O 44.5 (-113)
U 44.5 (-113)
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O 40.5 (-109)
U 40.5 (-117)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
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Panthers
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–
–
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-500
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-7.5 (-115)
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O 46.5 (-112)
U 46.5 (-113)
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Cincinnati Bengals
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Bengals
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–
–
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+235
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+6.5 (-112)
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O 44 (-109)
U 44 (-115)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens
10/26/25 1PM
Bears
Ravens
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–
–
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+260
-360
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+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-115)
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O 50 (-115)
U 50 (-109)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
10/26/25 1PM
Giants
Eagles
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–
–
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+275
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+7 (-113)
-7 (-113)
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O 43 (-114)
U 43 (-112)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans
10/26/25 1PM
49ers
Texans
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–
–
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-109
-117
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+1 (-115)
-1 (-109)
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O 41 (-115)
U 41 (-110)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
10/26/25 1PM
Dolphins
Falcons
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–
–
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+295
-420
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+7 (-108)
-7 (-118)
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O 44.5 (-113)
U 44.5 (-113)
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Oct 26, 2025 4:05PM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
10/26/25 4:05PM
Buccaneers
Saints
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–
–
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-245
+185
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-4.5 (-115)
+4.5 (-110)
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O 47.5 (-109)
U 47.5 (-117)
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Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
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Cowboys
Broncos
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–
–
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+135
-175
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+3.5 (-118)
-3.5 (-108)
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O 50 (-109)
U 50 (-117)
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Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
10/26/25 4:25PM
Titans
Colts
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–
–
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+650
-1250
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+14 (-108)
-14 (-118)
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O 47 (-113)
U 47 (-113)
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Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Packers
Steelers
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–
–
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-177
+135
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-3 (-113)
+3 (-113)
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O 45 (-112)
U 45 (-113)
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Oct 27, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Washington Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs
10/27/25 8:15PM
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–
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+420
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O 48 (-113)
U 48 (-113)
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NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots on January 05, 2025 at Gillette Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
NE@TEN | NE -6.5 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
CAR@NYJ | CAR -110 | 57.4 | 4 | WIN |
PHI@MIN | PHI -130 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
GB@ARI | ARI +7 | 54.8% | 5 | WIN |
NO@CHI | NO +4.5 | 57.4% | 7 | LOSS |
WAS@DAL | JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
GB@ARI | JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
PIT@CIN | JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
BUF@ATL | BUF -3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
CHI@WAS | JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
TEN@LV | UNDER 42 | 54.8% | 3 | WIN |
DET@KC | DET +2.5 | 55.7% | 7 | LOSS |
SEA@JAC | SEA -112 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
LAC@MIA | LAC -3.5 | 54.0% | 3 | LOSS |
ARI@IND | IND -8.5 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
TEN@LV | TEN +4.5 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
LAR@BAL | LAR -7 | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
SF@TB | SF +3.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
CLE@PIT | JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@NYJ | BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS | 55.0% | 4 | LOSS |
KC@JAC | UNDER 45.5 | 54.9% | 3 | LOSS |
KC@JAC | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
HOU@BAL | HOU -125 | 58.5% | 7 | WIN |
DET@CIN | DET -10 | 55.6% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@NYJ | NYJ +1.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@SEA | TB +3.5 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TEN@ARI | ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@PHI | DEN +4.5 | 57.5% | 7 | WIN |
MIA@CAR | TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
LV@IND | ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
SF@LAR | DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | NYJ +3 | 53.8 | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |