Bills vs. Patriots
Prediction, Odds & Props
Jan 05 | NFL AI Picks

Updated: 2024-12-29T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) on January 5, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. With the Bills having secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, they are expected to rest key starters, while the Patriots aim to end a challenging season on a positive note.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Jan 05, 2025

Start Time: 2:00 PM EST​

Venue: Gillette Stadium​

Patriots Record: (3-13)

Bills Record: (13-3)

OPENING ODDS

BUF Moneyline: -134

NE Moneyline: +113

BUF Spread: -2.5

NE Spread: +2.5

Over/Under: 38.5

BUF
Betting Trends

  • The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.

NE
Betting Trends

  • The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.

BUF vs. NE
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

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Buffalo vs New England Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 1/5/25

The upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots presents an intriguing scenario for both teams. The Bills, with a 13-3 record, have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and are expected to rest key players to preserve their health for the postseason. Quarterback Josh Allen and other starters may see limited or no action, providing an opportunity for backups to gain valuable playing time. On the other hand, the Patriots, enduring a 3-13 season, are looking to end on a high note. A loss would secure them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, a position they haven’t held since 1993. However, head coach Jerod Mayo has emphasized the importance of playing to win, indicating that the team will compete hard despite the potential draft implications. In their previous meeting on December 22, the Patriots narrowly lost to the Bills 24-21, demonstrating their ability to compete with one of the league’s top teams. With the Bills likely resting starters, the Patriots may have a better chance to capitalize and potentially secure a victory.

Betting lines reflect the anticipated competitiveness of this matchup. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under set at 38.5 points. Given the circumstances, bettors might find value in considering the Patriots to cover the spread, especially if the Bills’ backups are unable to maintain the same level of performance as the starters. For the Bills, this game serves as an opportunity to evaluate depth and ensure that key players are rested and healthy for the playoff run. Backup players will be eager to showcase their abilities, potentially leading to a spirited performance despite the absence of starters. The Patriots, meanwhile, are playing for pride and the chance to build momentum heading into the offseason. A win against a division rival, even one resting starters, could provide a morale boost and positive narrative to conclude a disappointing season. Overall, this matchup offers a unique dynamic, with the Bills balancing preparation for the playoffs and player health, while the Patriots seek to end their season positively. The interplay of these factors makes for an unpredictable and potentially exciting game.

Buffalo Bills NFL Preview

The Buffalo Bills, standing at 13-3, have already secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs and are expected to approach their regular-season finale against the New England Patriots with caution. With their postseason position locked in, head coach Sean McDermott is likely to rest key starters, including quarterback Josh Allen, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and other top contributors. This strategy aims to ensure the team enters the playoffs healthy and prepared for a deep postseason run. Despite the expected absence of starters, the Bills remain a formidable opponent due to their depth across the roster. Backup quarterback Kyle Allen is anticipated to start, providing him with a valuable opportunity to gain in-game experience. Allen, known for his accuracy and decision-making, will look to lead the offense effectively while showcasing his capabilities as a reliable backup. Running back James Cook, who has played a significant role in the Bills’ rushing attack, may also see limited action, with younger players like Latavius Murray expected to take on a larger workload. The Bills’ offensive system, coordinated by Ken Dorsey, emphasizes versatility and adaptability. Even with backups on the field, Dorsey’s play-calling is likely to utilize the team’s depth at receiver and tight end to challenge New England’s defense. Players like wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid are poised to play larger roles, providing a glimpse of their potential impact in future seasons. Defensively, the Bills have been one of the league’s most consistent units, allowing an average of just 18.4 points per game, ranking among the top defenses in the NFL. While some key defensive players may be rested, the unit’s depth ensures a competitive presence on the field. Defensive linemen like Ed Oliver and linebackers such as Tyrel Dodson are expected to lead the charge in containing the Patriots’ offense. Special teams will remain a key factor for Buffalo, with kicker Tyler Bass continuing to deliver reliable performances throughout the season. Punter Sam Martin and the coverage units will play crucial roles in maintaining field position and limiting New England’s opportunities. As the Bills prepare for this matchup, their primary focus will be on staying healthy and executing their game plan with discipline. This game provides an opportunity for younger players and backups to gain valuable experience and showcase their skills, which could prove vital in the playoffs or future seasons. Keys to victory for the Bills include maintaining a balanced offensive approach, protecting Kyle Allen, and utilizing their depth to exploit New England’s weaknesses. Defensively, the focus will be on containing rookie quarterback Drake Maye and forcing turnovers to keep the Patriots’ offense off-balance. While this game may not impact the Bills’ playoff positioning, it serves as a chance to evaluate their roster depth and build momentum heading into the postseason. A strong performance, even with key players resting, would further reinforce Buffalo’s reputation as a well-rounded and disciplined team capable of making a serious championship run.

The Buffalo Bills (13-3) will face the New England Patriots (3-13) on January 5, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. With the Bills having secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, they are expected to rest key starters, while the Patriots aim to end a challenging season on a positive note. Buffalo vs New England AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Jan 05. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

New England Patriots NFL Preview

The New England Patriots are set to conclude a challenging 3-13 season with a home game against the Buffalo Bills. Despite the difficulties faced throughout the year, the Patriots are focused on finishing strong under head coach Jerod Mayo. Mayo, in his first season as head coach, has faced scrutiny but remains committed to leading his team with determination. Offensively, the Patriots have struggled to find consistency. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential but has also experienced typical first-year challenges. The offensive line has been inconsistent, contributing to difficulties in both the passing and running games. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been a bright spot, providing a reliable option in the backfield. Wide receivers Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne have had moments of success but have been unable to consistently impact games. Defensively, the Patriots have had mixed results. The unit has shown the ability to make impactful plays but has also been susceptible to giving up significant yardage and points. Injuries have affected the depth and performance of the defense, with key players like defensive tackle Christian Barmore and cornerback Marcus Jones missing time. The secondary, while talented, has faced challenges against high-powered offenses. Special teams have been a relative strength for New England. Kicker Joey Slye has been dependable, and punter Bryce Baringer has effectively managed field position. However, the return game has lacked explosiveness, and coverage units have occasionally allowed substantial returns, areas that require attention moving forward. As the Patriots prepare to face the Bills, they are aware of the opportunity to capitalize on Buffalo potentially resting key starters. This game provides a chance for young players to gain valuable experience and for the team to build some positive momentum heading into the offseason. Keys to victory for the Patriots include protecting Maye to allow him to make plays, establishing a ground game to control the tempo, and improving defensive execution to limit the Bills’ productive offense. Special teams could also play a pivotal role in determining field position and scoring opportunities. While the Patriots’ record may not reflect it, the team has shown resilience in many of their games this season. A win against a top-tier division rival like the Bills, even if shorthanded, would provide a much-needed morale boost and a solid foundation for improvement in 2025.

Buffalo vs. New England Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Bills and Patriots play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Gillette Stadium in Jan seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

Buffalo vs. New England Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every angle between the Bills and Patriots and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of weight human bettors tend to put on Buffalo’s strength factors between a Bills team going up against a possibly tired Patriots team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Buffalo vs New England picks, computer picks Bills vs Patriots, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Bills Betting Trends

The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.

Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.

Bills vs. Patriots Matchup Trends

In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.

Buffalo vs. New England Game Info

Buffalo vs New England starts on January 05, 2025 at 2:00 PM EST.

Spread: New England +2.5
Moneyline: Buffalo -134, New England +113
Over/Under: 38.5

Buffalo: (13-3)  |  New England: (3-13)

Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

In their previous matchup on December 22, 2024, the Patriots were significant underdogs but played competitively, losing narrowly 24-21. This suggests that New England has the potential to cover the spread against Buffalo, especially with the Bills likely resting starters.

BUF trend: The Bills have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, achieving a 9-6 ATS record. Their ability to cover the spread has been consistent, reflecting their overall performance and dominance in the AFC East.

NE trend: The Patriots have also performed well ATS, holding a 9-5 record despite their overall struggles. This indicates that while their win-loss record is poor, they have often kept games closer than expected, providing value to bettors.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Buffalo vs. New England Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Buffalo vs New England trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.

Buffalo vs New England Opening Odds

BUF Moneyline: -134
NE Moneyline: +113
BUF Spread: -2.5
NE Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 38.5

Buffalo vs New England Live Odds

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-140
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O 41 (-110)
U 41 (-110)
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Sep 28, 2025 1:00PM EDT
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U 44 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
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U 39 (-110)
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O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
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Washington Commanders
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9/28/25 1:01PM
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+105
-125
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O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
New Orleans Saints
Buffalo Bills
9/28/25 1:01PM
Saints
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+800
-1300
+15 (-110)
-15 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots
9/28/25 1:01PM
Panthers
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+200
-250
+5.5 (-110)
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O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
Sep 28, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers
9/28/25 4:06PM
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+150
-180
+3.5 (-115)
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O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams
9/28/25 4:06PM
Colts
Rams
+160
-190
+3.5 (-110)
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O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
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Ravens
Chiefs
-150
+125
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (+100)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Las Vegas Raiders
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Bears
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+100
-120
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O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 8:21PM EDT
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Dallas Cowboys
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-325
+250
-7 (-105)
+7 (-115)
O 47 (-110)
U 47 (-110)
Sep 29, 2025 7:15PM EDT
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
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+125
-150
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O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
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Denver Broncos
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+310
-400
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O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Oct 2, 2025 8:16PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
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+134
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U 47.5 (-115)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots on January 05, 2025 at Gillette Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS
GB@CLE GB -7 54.3% 4 LOSS
ARI@SF ARI +3 57.7% 6 WIN
KC@NYG PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
GB@CLE JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIA@BUF TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@LV LAC -3 54.9% 4 WIN
TB@HOU BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 54.4% 4 WIN
CHI@DET DET -6.5 54.3% 4 WIN
DEN@IND DEN -118 60.1% 10 LOSS
PHI@KC PHI -115 56.7% 6 WIN
SF@NO SF -3 58.8% 8 WIN
SEA@PIT OVER 40 54.9% 4 WIN
CAR@ARI BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
DEN@IND JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 54.7% 4 WIN
ATL@MIN BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 53.4% 3 WIN
WAS@GB WAS +3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
WAS@GB JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
MIN@CHI CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS 53.4% 3 LOSS
TEN@DEN DEN -8.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
SF@SEA SF -115 54.6% 4 WIN
SF@SEA KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS 54.6% 4 WIN
CAR@JAC TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT 56.1% 6 LOSS
KC@LAC JUSTIN HERBERT UNDER 0.5 INT 54.1% 3 WIN
DAL@PHI GEORGE PICKENS LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 22.5 YDS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@PHI JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 16.5 RECV YDS 53.90% 5 WIN
KC@PHI DEVONTA SMITH LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 20.5 YDS 54.40% 6 WIN
KC@PHI PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 68.3% PASS COMP 55.00% 8 WIN
KC@PHI JALEN HURTS LONGEST RUSH OVER 12.5 YDS 55.60% 8 WIN
BUF@KC DALTON KINCAID OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.10% 8 LOSS
WAS@PHI DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS 55.80% 8 WIN
BUF@KC JAMES COOK ANYTIME TD 53.00% 5 WIN
LAR@PHI SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 128 RUSH + REC YDS 53.20% 5 LOSS
BAL@BUF LAMAR JACKSON OVER 54.5 RUSH YDS 54.50% 6 LOSS
HOU@KC C.J. STROUD RUSH YDS UNDER 14.5 53.10% 5 LOSS
WAS@DET JAMESON WILLIAMS RUSH YDS OVER 1.5 53.30% 5 WIN
WAS@DET JARED GOFF PASS COMP % UNDER 72.3 54.30% 6 WIN
MIN@LAR COOPER KUPP ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN 52.60% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAR MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 21.5 PASS COMP 54.10% 6 LOSS
WAS@TB BRIAN ROBINSON JR OVER 1.5 REC TARGETS 53.50% 5 WIN
WAS@TB BAKER MAYFIELD UNDER 33.5 PASS ATT 54.90% 6 WIN
GB@PHI JALEN HURTS OVER 67.1 PASS COMP PERCENTAGE 54.60% 6 LOSS
LAC@HOU J.K. DOBBINS ANYTIME TD 52.80% 3 LOSS
LAC@HOU LAC -2.5 53.40% 3 LOSS
LAC@HOU JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 19.5 RUSH YDS 53.40% 5 LOSS