Falcons vs Commanders Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Dec 29)

Updated: 2024-12-22T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are set to face the Washington Commanders (10-5) at Commanders Field on Sunday, December 29, 2024, at 8:20 PM ET. This pivotal matchup carries significant playoff implications for both teams, with the Commanders looking to secure a wild card spot and the Falcons aiming to keep their postseason hopes alive.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Dec 29, 2024

Start Time: 9:20 PM EST​

Venue: Northwest Stadium​

Commanders Record: (10-5)

Falcons Record: (8-7)

OPENING ODDS

ATL Moneyline: +167

WAS Moneyline: -202

ATL Spread: +4

WAS Spread: -4.0

Over/Under: 47.5

ATL
Betting Trends

  • The Falcons have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 4-9 record. Their recent 34-7 victory over the New York Giants, led by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was a positive development, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

WAS
Betting Trends

  • The Commanders have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home favorites, demonstrating strong performances at Commanders Field.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • An interesting ATS statistic is the Commanders’ recent struggles in December games, where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 December matchups. This trend could be a consideration for bettors evaluating the team’s late-season performance.

ATL vs. WAS
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

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Atlanta vs Washington Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 12/29/24

The Week 17 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Commanders is set to be a high-stakes contest with significant playoff implications. The Commanders, with a 10-5 record, are looking to secure a wild card spot, while the 8-7 Falcons aim to keep their postseason aspirations alive. Both teams have shown resilience throughout the season, and this game promises to be a competitive encounter. The Commanders’ offense has been revitalized under rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has demonstrated exceptional dual-threat capabilities. Daniels has been instrumental in the team’s recent successes, including a thrilling 36-33 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, where he accounted for five passing touchdowns and added 81 rushing yards. His ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws downfield has added a dynamic element to Washington’s offense. However, the Commanders have faced challenges in their traditional running game, relying heavily on Daniels’ mobility.

The anticipated return of running back Austin Ekeler could provide a much-needed boost to the ground attack, offering balance and reducing the pressure on Daniels to carry the offensive load. The offensive line’s performance will be crucial in establishing the run and providing adequate protection against a Falcons defense that has shown the ability to apply pressure. Defensively, the Commanders have been solid, with cornerback Marshon Lattimore playing a pivotal role in the secondary. Lattimore’s coverage skills were on full display in his recent debut, where he wasn’t targeted, indicating his effectiveness in shutting down opposing receivers. The defensive front, led by a formidable pass rush, will look to disrupt the Falcons’ rookie quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., and contain the running game spearheaded by Bijan Robinson. The Falcons, under head coach Raheem Morris, have experienced a resurgence with the insertion of Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback. In his first career start, Penix led the team to a convincing 34-7 win over the Giants, completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown. His poise and decision-making have provided a spark to Atlanta’s offense, which also features the dynamic rookie running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s versatility as a runner and receiver adds a multifaceted threat that the Commanders’ defense will need to account for. Atlanta’s defense has been opportunistic, with a focus on creating turnovers and applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The matchup against Daniels presents a unique challenge, given his mobility and playmaking ability. Discipline in pass rush lanes and effective containment strategies will be essential to prevent Daniels from exploiting openings with his legs. Special teams could play a decisive role in this matchup. Both teams will aim to win the field position battle, and the performance of their respective kickers in high-pressure situations could be a determining factor. In summary, this game features two teams with contrasting styles and emerging talents at the quarterback position. The Commanders will look to leverage their home-field advantage and the playmaking abilities of Jayden Daniels, while the Falcons aim to build on the momentum generated by Michael Penix Jr. With playoff implications on the line, fans can anticipate a fiercely contested battle under the lights of Sunday Night Football.

Atlanta Falcons NFL Preview

The Atlanta Falcons approach Week 17 with an 8-7 record, fighting to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. Under head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons have shown resilience throughout the season, with their playoff hopes now hinging on a strong finish and some help from other teams. The emergence of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has provided a much-needed spark to the team as they prepare for this crucial matchup against the Commanders. Penix Jr., in his first career start, showcased poise and playmaking ability, completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown in a dominant 34-7 win over the New York Giants. His calm demeanor in the pocket and willingness to take calculated risks have reinvigorated an offense that had struggled with consistency earlier in the season. Penix’s ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws downfield has added a new dimension to Atlanta’s attack. The Falcons’ offense also features rookie running back Bijan Robinson, who has been a standout performer all season. Robinson’s versatility as a runner and receiver makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. With over 1,200 yards from scrimmage, he remains a focal point of the Falcons’ game plan. Wide receivers Drake London and Kyle Pitts provide Penix with reliable targets, combining size, speed, and hands to create mismatches against defenders. The offensive line has been solid in both pass protection and run blocking, allowing the Falcons to sustain drives and capitalize on scoring opportunities. However, facing a Commanders defense known for its pass rush will test their ability to keep Penix upright and provide the time necessary for plays to develop. Defensively, the Falcons have been opportunistic, focusing on creating turnovers and applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Linebacker Troy Andersen has been a standout, excelling in coverage and run support, while defensive end Grady Jarrett anchors the pass rush. The secondary, led by cornerback A.J. Terrell, will need to be at its best to contain Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ dynamic passing attack. Special teams have been a mixed bag for Atlanta, with kicker Younghoe Koo continuing to be reliable in field goal situations but inconsistent coverage units occasionally putting the defense in tough spots. The return game, led by Cordarrelle Patterson, has been a bright spot, offering the potential for game-changing plays. Heading into this pivotal matchup, the Falcons will look to build on their momentum from the Giants game. Establishing Robinson early and utilizing play-action passes to exploit Washington’s secondary will be crucial. Defensively, the Falcons must contain Daniels’ dual-threat capabilities and maintain discipline in pass-rush lanes to prevent him from breaking loose for big plays. This game represents a must-win for Atlanta as they aim to keep their playoff hopes alive. A victory would not only improve their postseason chances but also validate the progress made under Morris and the impact of their promising rookies. With everything on the line, expect the Falcons to bring their best effort to Commanders Field in this high-stakes NFC showdown.

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are set to face the Washington Commanders (10-5) at Commanders Field on Sunday, December 29, 2024, at 8:20 PM ET. This pivotal matchup carries significant playoff implications for both teams, with the Commanders looking to secure a wild card spot and the Falcons aiming to keep their postseason hopes alive. Atlanta vs Washington AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Dec 29. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Washington Commanders NFL Preview

The Washington Commanders enter Week 17 with a 10-5 record, positioning themselves for a potential wild card berth in the NFC. Under the guidance of head coach Dan Quinn, the team has demonstrated resilience and adaptability throughout the season, overcoming various challenges to remain in playoff contention. Offensively, the Commanders have been invigorated by the emergence of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels’ dual-threat capabilities have added a new dimension to the offense, allowing for a more dynamic and unpredictable attack. In the recent victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Daniels showcased his versatility by throwing for five touchdowns and rushing for 81 yards, exemplifying his ability to impact the game both through the air and on the ground. Despite Daniels’ impressive performances, the traditional running game has faced challenges, necessitating a heavier reliance on the quarterback’s mobility. The anticipated return of running back Austin Ekeler is expected to bolster the ground attack, providing balance and alleviating some of the burdens on Daniels. Ekeler’s proficiency as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield offers a versatile weapon that can exploit defensive mismatches. The offensive line’s performance will be critical in this matchup, particularly in providing protection against a Falcons defense known for its pass-rushing capabilities. Maintaining clean pockets for Daniels and creating running lanes for Ekeler will be essential to sustaining drives and controlling the tempo of the game. Defensively, the Commanders have been anchored by a robust secondary, with cornerback Marshon Lattimore playing a pivotal role. Lattimore’s ability to shut down opposing receivers has been a game-changer for the Commanders’ defense. His debut performance, where he wasn’t targeted once, highlighted his impact in taking away an opposing team’s primary receiving threat. Safety Kamren Curl has also been a reliable presence, providing support in coverage and stepping up against the run. The defensive line, led by Montez Sweat and Chase Young, has excelled at applying consistent pressure on quarterbacks, which will be crucial in containing Atlanta’s rookie signal-caller Michael Penix Jr. The Commanders’ linebackers have been active in defending both the pass and the run. Their versatility will be tested against Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, who can create mismatches as both a runner and a receiver. Tackling discipline and maintaining gap integrity will be key to limiting Robinson’s effectiveness and forcing the Falcons into third-and-long situations. Special teams have been a consistent asset for Washington, with kicker Joey Slye proving reliable in clutch moments. Punter Tress Way has been excellent in pinning opponents deep in their territory, while the return game has provided sparks that have occasionally flipped field position in the Commanders’ favor. Facing the Falcons in a high-stakes game, the Commanders will rely on their balanced attack and home-field advantage. Offensively, they will look to control the clock with a mix of Daniels’ playmaking ability and a revitalized running game led by Ekeler. Defensively, shutting down Atlanta’s explosive backfield and pressuring Penix will be critical to their success. A win would not only solidify their playoff position but also give them momentum heading into the postseason.

Atlanta vs. Washington Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Falcons and Commanders play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Northwest Stadium in Dec can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

Atlanta vs. Washington Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over millions of data from every facet between the Falcons and Commanders and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most focused on the unproportionally assigned emphasis emotional bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Falcons team going up against a possibly improved Commanders team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Atlanta vs Washington picks, computer picks Falcons vs Commanders, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 10/20 HOU@SEA UNLOCK THIS PICK 5 INTEL Locked INTEL
NFL 10/20 TB@DET UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 10/20 TB@DET UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 10/20 TB@DET UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL
NFL 10/20 HOU@SEA UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NFL 10/20 TB@DET UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Falcons Betting Trends

The Falcons have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 4-9 record. Their recent 34-7 victory over the New York Giants, led by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was a positive development, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

Commanders Betting Trends

The Commanders have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home favorites, demonstrating strong performances at Commanders Field.

Falcons vs. Commanders Matchup Trends

An interesting ATS statistic is the Commanders’ recent struggles in December games, where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 December matchups. This trend could be a consideration for bettors evaluating the team’s late-season performance.

Atlanta vs. Washington Game Info

Atlanta vs Washington starts on December 29, 2024 at 9:20 PM EST.

Spread: Washington -4.0
Moneyline: Atlanta +167, Washington -202
Over/Under: 47.5

Atlanta: (8-7)  |  Washington: (10-5)

Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

An interesting ATS statistic is the Commanders’ recent struggles in December games, where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 December matchups. This trend could be a consideration for bettors evaluating the team’s late-season performance.

ATL trend: The Falcons have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 4-9 record. Their recent 34-7 victory over the New York Giants, led by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was a positive development, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

WAS trend: The Commanders have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home favorites, demonstrating strong performances at Commanders Field.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.

Atlanta vs. Washington Odds

Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the Atlanta vs Washington trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Atlanta vs Washington Opening Odds

ATL Moneyline: +167
WAS Moneyline: -202
ATL Spread: +4
WAS Spread: -4.0
Over/Under: 47.5

Atlanta vs Washington Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 23, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Chargers
10/23/25 8:15PM
Vikings
Chargers
+148
-185
+3 (+100)
-3 (-120)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
New England Patriots
10/26/25 1PM
Browns
Patriots
+270
-374
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
O 40.5 (-110)
U 40.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
10/26/25 1PM
Bills
Panthers
-463
+321
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 46 (-110)
U 46 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
10/26/25 1PM
Jets
Bengals
+242
-330
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens
10/26/25 1PM
Bears
Ravens
+229
-315
+6.5 (+100)
-6.5 (-120)
O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
10/26/25 1PM
Giants
Eagles
+287
-407
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Houston Texans
10/26/25 1PM
49ers
Texans
-110
-116
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
10/26/25 1PM
Dolphins
Falcons
+257
-355
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 4:05PM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
10/26/25 4:05PM
Buccaneers
Saints
-220
+169
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
O 47 (-110)
U 47 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
10/26/25 4:25PM
Cowboys
Broncos
+141
-181
+3.5 (-120)
-3.5 (+100)
O 50 (-110)
U 50 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
10/26/25 4:25PM
Titans
Colts
+682
-1442
+14 (-110)
-14 (-110)
O 47 (-110)
U 47 (-110)
Oct 26, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/26/25 8:20PM
Packers
Steelers
-192
+148
-3.5 (+100)
+3.5 (-120)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Oct 27, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Washington Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs
10/27/25 8:15PM
Commanders
Chiefs
+390
-599
+10.5 (-110)
-10.5 (-110)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders on December 29, 2024 at Northwest Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
NE@TEN NE -6.5 55.2% 5 WIN
CAR@NYJ CAR -110 57.4 4 WIN
PHI@MIN PHI -130 58.0% 6 WIN
GB@ARI ARI +7 54.8% 5 WIN
NO@CHI NO +4.5 57.4% 7 LOSS
WAS@DAL JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 56.1% 5 WIN
GB@ARI JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 56.6% 6 WIN
PIT@CIN JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
BUF@ATL BUF -3.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
CHI@WAS JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 56.6% 6 WIN
TEN@LV UNDER 42 54.8% 3 WIN
DET@KC DET +2.5 55.7% 7 LOSS
SEA@JAC SEA -112 55.7% 5 WIN
LAC@MIA LAC -3.5 54.0% 3 LOSS
ARI@IND IND -8.5 55.6% 5 LOSS
TEN@LV TEN +4.5 56.7% 6 LOSS
LAR@BAL LAR -7 56.2% 6 WIN
SF@TB SF +3.5 57.2% 7 LOSS
CLE@PIT JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 LOSS
DEN@NYJ BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS 55.0% 4 LOSS
KC@JAC UNDER 45.5 54.9% 3 LOSS
KC@JAC PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP 56.6% 6 LOSS
HOU@BAL HOU -125 58.5% 7 WIN
DET@CIN DET -10 55.6% 5 WIN
DAL@NYJ NYJ +1.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
TB@SEA TB +3.5 54.9% 4 WIN
TEN@ARI ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) 54.9% 4 LOSS
DEN@PHI DEN +4.5 57.5% 7 WIN
MIA@CAR TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS 54.5% 4 WIN
LV@IND ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 WIN
SF@LAR DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.7% 5 WIN
NYJ@MIA NYJ +3 53.8 3 LOSS
CIN@DEN DEN -7.5 54.8 4 WIN
NYJ@MIA OVER 44 52.9% 2 WIN
CIN@DEN UNDER 44.5 53.7% 3 WIN
NYJ@MIA GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS 53.7% 3 WIN
CIN@DEN TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS 55.5% 5 LOSS
WAS@ATL ATL -2.5 54.3 4 WIN
BAL@KC BAL -2.5 56.3% 6 LOSS
TEN@HOU TEN +7.5 57.9% 7 LOSS
LAC@NYG LAC -6 57.3% 7 LOSS
NO@BUF UNDER 48.5 55.1% 3 LOSS
GB@DAL JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS 55.5% 5 LOSS
CAR@NE DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 LOSS
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS