Falcons vs. Commanders
Prediction, Odds & Props
Dec 29 | NFL AI Picks

Updated: 2024-12-22T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are set to face the Washington Commanders (10-5) at Commanders Field on Sunday, December 29, 2024, at 8:20 PM ET. This pivotal matchup carries significant playoff implications for both teams, with the Commanders looking to secure a wild card spot and the Falcons aiming to keep their postseason hopes alive.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Dec 29, 2024

Start Time: 9:20 PM EST​

Venue: Northwest Stadium​

Commanders Record: (10-5)

Falcons Record: (8-7)

OPENING ODDS

ATL Moneyline: +167

WAS Moneyline: -202

ATL Spread: +4

WAS Spread: -4.0

Over/Under: 47.5

ATL
Betting Trends

  • The Falcons have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 4-9 record. Their recent 34-7 victory over the New York Giants, led by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was a positive development, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

WAS
Betting Trends

  • The Commanders have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home favorites, demonstrating strong performances at Commanders Field.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • An interesting ATS statistic is the Commanders’ recent struggles in December games, where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 December matchups. This trend could be a consideration for bettors evaluating the team’s late-season performance.

ATL vs. WAS
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

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Atlanta vs Washington Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 12/29/24

The Week 17 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Commanders is set to be a high-stakes contest with significant playoff implications. The Commanders, with a 10-5 record, are looking to secure a wild card spot, while the 8-7 Falcons aim to keep their postseason aspirations alive. Both teams have shown resilience throughout the season, and this game promises to be a competitive encounter. The Commanders’ offense has been revitalized under rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has demonstrated exceptional dual-threat capabilities. Daniels has been instrumental in the team’s recent successes, including a thrilling 36-33 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, where he accounted for five passing touchdowns and added 81 rushing yards. His ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws downfield has added a dynamic element to Washington’s offense. However, the Commanders have faced challenges in their traditional running game, relying heavily on Daniels’ mobility.

The anticipated return of running back Austin Ekeler could provide a much-needed boost to the ground attack, offering balance and reducing the pressure on Daniels to carry the offensive load. The offensive line’s performance will be crucial in establishing the run and providing adequate protection against a Falcons defense that has shown the ability to apply pressure. Defensively, the Commanders have been solid, with cornerback Marshon Lattimore playing a pivotal role in the secondary. Lattimore’s coverage skills were on full display in his recent debut, where he wasn’t targeted, indicating his effectiveness in shutting down opposing receivers. The defensive front, led by a formidable pass rush, will look to disrupt the Falcons’ rookie quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., and contain the running game spearheaded by Bijan Robinson. The Falcons, under head coach Raheem Morris, have experienced a resurgence with the insertion of Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback. In his first career start, Penix led the team to a convincing 34-7 win over the Giants, completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown. His poise and decision-making have provided a spark to Atlanta’s offense, which also features the dynamic rookie running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s versatility as a runner and receiver adds a multifaceted threat that the Commanders’ defense will need to account for. Atlanta’s defense has been opportunistic, with a focus on creating turnovers and applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The matchup against Daniels presents a unique challenge, given his mobility and playmaking ability. Discipline in pass rush lanes and effective containment strategies will be essential to prevent Daniels from exploiting openings with his legs. Special teams could play a decisive role in this matchup. Both teams will aim to win the field position battle, and the performance of their respective kickers in high-pressure situations could be a determining factor. In summary, this game features two teams with contrasting styles and emerging talents at the quarterback position. The Commanders will look to leverage their home-field advantage and the playmaking abilities of Jayden Daniels, while the Falcons aim to build on the momentum generated by Michael Penix Jr. With playoff implications on the line, fans can anticipate a fiercely contested battle under the lights of Sunday Night Football.

Atlanta Falcons NFL Preview

The Atlanta Falcons approach Week 17 with an 8-7 record, fighting to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. Under head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons have shown resilience throughout the season, with their playoff hopes now hinging on a strong finish and some help from other teams. The emergence of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has provided a much-needed spark to the team as they prepare for this crucial matchup against the Commanders. Penix Jr., in his first career start, showcased poise and playmaking ability, completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown in a dominant 34-7 win over the New York Giants. His calm demeanor in the pocket and willingness to take calculated risks have reinvigorated an offense that had struggled with consistency earlier in the season. Penix’s ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws downfield has added a new dimension to Atlanta’s attack. The Falcons’ offense also features rookie running back Bijan Robinson, who has been a standout performer all season. Robinson’s versatility as a runner and receiver makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. With over 1,200 yards from scrimmage, he remains a focal point of the Falcons’ game plan. Wide receivers Drake London and Kyle Pitts provide Penix with reliable targets, combining size, speed, and hands to create mismatches against defenders. The offensive line has been solid in both pass protection and run blocking, allowing the Falcons to sustain drives and capitalize on scoring opportunities. However, facing a Commanders defense known for its pass rush will test their ability to keep Penix upright and provide the time necessary for plays to develop. Defensively, the Falcons have been opportunistic, focusing on creating turnovers and applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Linebacker Troy Andersen has been a standout, excelling in coverage and run support, while defensive end Grady Jarrett anchors the pass rush. The secondary, led by cornerback A.J. Terrell, will need to be at its best to contain Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ dynamic passing attack. Special teams have been a mixed bag for Atlanta, with kicker Younghoe Koo continuing to be reliable in field goal situations but inconsistent coverage units occasionally putting the defense in tough spots. The return game, led by Cordarrelle Patterson, has been a bright spot, offering the potential for game-changing plays. Heading into this pivotal matchup, the Falcons will look to build on their momentum from the Giants game. Establishing Robinson early and utilizing play-action passes to exploit Washington’s secondary will be crucial. Defensively, the Falcons must contain Daniels’ dual-threat capabilities and maintain discipline in pass-rush lanes to prevent him from breaking loose for big plays. This game represents a must-win for Atlanta as they aim to keep their playoff hopes alive. A victory would not only improve their postseason chances but also validate the progress made under Morris and the impact of their promising rookies. With everything on the line, expect the Falcons to bring their best effort to Commanders Field in this high-stakes NFC showdown.

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are set to face the Washington Commanders (10-5) at Commanders Field on Sunday, December 29, 2024, at 8:20 PM ET. This pivotal matchup carries significant playoff implications for both teams, with the Commanders looking to secure a wild card spot and the Falcons aiming to keep their postseason hopes alive. Atlanta vs Washington AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Dec 29. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Washington Commanders NFL Preview

The Washington Commanders enter Week 17 with a 10-5 record, positioning themselves for a potential wild card berth in the NFC. Under the guidance of head coach Dan Quinn, the team has demonstrated resilience and adaptability throughout the season, overcoming various challenges to remain in playoff contention. Offensively, the Commanders have been invigorated by the emergence of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels’ dual-threat capabilities have added a new dimension to the offense, allowing for a more dynamic and unpredictable attack. In the recent victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Daniels showcased his versatility by throwing for five touchdowns and rushing for 81 yards, exemplifying his ability to impact the game both through the air and on the ground. Despite Daniels’ impressive performances, the traditional running game has faced challenges, necessitating a heavier reliance on the quarterback’s mobility. The anticipated return of running back Austin Ekeler is expected to bolster the ground attack, providing balance and alleviating some of the burdens on Daniels. Ekeler’s proficiency as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield offers a versatile weapon that can exploit defensive mismatches. The offensive line’s performance will be critical in this matchup, particularly in providing protection against a Falcons defense known for its pass-rushing capabilities. Maintaining clean pockets for Daniels and creating running lanes for Ekeler will be essential to sustaining drives and controlling the tempo of the game. Defensively, the Commanders have been anchored by a robust secondary, with cornerback Marshon Lattimore playing a pivotal role. Lattimore’s ability to shut down opposing receivers has been a game-changer for the Commanders’ defense. His debut performance, where he wasn’t targeted once, highlighted his impact in taking away an opposing team’s primary receiving threat. Safety Kamren Curl has also been a reliable presence, providing support in coverage and stepping up against the run. The defensive line, led by Montez Sweat and Chase Young, has excelled at applying consistent pressure on quarterbacks, which will be crucial in containing Atlanta’s rookie signal-caller Michael Penix Jr. The Commanders’ linebackers have been active in defending both the pass and the run. Their versatility will be tested against Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, who can create mismatches as both a runner and a receiver. Tackling discipline and maintaining gap integrity will be key to limiting Robinson’s effectiveness and forcing the Falcons into third-and-long situations. Special teams have been a consistent asset for Washington, with kicker Joey Slye proving reliable in clutch moments. Punter Tress Way has been excellent in pinning opponents deep in their territory, while the return game has provided sparks that have occasionally flipped field position in the Commanders’ favor. Facing the Falcons in a high-stakes game, the Commanders will rely on their balanced attack and home-field advantage. Offensively, they will look to control the clock with a mix of Daniels’ playmaking ability and a revitalized running game led by Ekeler. Defensively, shutting down Atlanta’s explosive backfield and pressuring Penix will be critical to their success. A win would not only solidify their playoff position but also give them momentum heading into the postseason.

Atlanta vs. Washington Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Falcons and Commanders play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Northwest Stadium in Dec rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

Atlanta vs. Washington Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every simulation between the Falcons and Commanders and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

The Algorithm has been most watching on the growing emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on coaching factors between a Falcons team going up against a possibly improved Commanders team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Atlanta vs Washington picks, computer picks Falcons vs Commanders, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Falcons Betting Trends

The Falcons have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 4-9 record. Their recent 34-7 victory over the New York Giants, led by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was a positive development, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

Commanders Betting Trends

The Commanders have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home favorites, demonstrating strong performances at Commanders Field.

Falcons vs. Commanders Matchup Trends

An interesting ATS statistic is the Commanders’ recent struggles in December games, where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 December matchups. This trend could be a consideration for bettors evaluating the team’s late-season performance.

Atlanta vs. Washington Game Info

Atlanta vs Washington starts on December 29, 2024 at 9:20 PM EST.

Spread: Washington -4.0
Moneyline: Atlanta +167, Washington -202
Over/Under: 47.5

Atlanta: (8-7)  |  Washington: (10-5)

Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

An interesting ATS statistic is the Commanders’ recent struggles in December games, where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 December matchups. This trend could be a consideration for bettors evaluating the team’s late-season performance.

ATL trend: The Falcons have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 4-9 record. Their recent 34-7 victory over the New York Giants, led by rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., was a positive development, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

WAS trend: The Commanders have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home favorites, demonstrating strong performances at Commanders Field.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.

Atlanta vs. Washington Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Atlanta vs Washington trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Atlanta vs Washington Opening Odds

ATL Moneyline: +167
WAS Moneyline: -202
ATL Spread: +4
WAS Spread: -4.0
Over/Under: 47.5

Atlanta vs Washington Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 28, 2025 9:31AM EDT
Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers
9/28/25 9:31AM
Vikings
Steelers
-140
+115
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
O 41 (-110)
U 41 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
9/28/25 1PM
Browns
Lions
+400
-550
+10 (-110)
-10 (-110)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
New York Giants
9/28/25 1PM
Chargers
Giants
-285
+230
-6.5 (-105)
+6.5 (-115)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
9/28/25 1:01PM
Titans
Texans
+300
-375
+7 (-105)
-7 (-115)
O 39 (-110)
U 39 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9/28/25 1:01PM
Eagles
Buccaneers
-190
+160
-3.5 (-105)
+3.5 (-115)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Washington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons
9/28/25 1:01PM
Commanders
Falcons
+105
-125
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
New Orleans Saints
Buffalo Bills
9/28/25 1:01PM
Saints
Bills
+800
-1300
+15 (-110)
-15 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots
9/28/25 1:01PM
Panthers
Patriots
+200
-250
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
Sep 28, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers
9/28/25 4:06PM
Jaguars
49ers
+150
-180
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams
9/28/25 4:06PM
Colts
Rams
+160
-190
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
9/28/25 4:25PM
Ravens
Chiefs
-150
+125
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (+100)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Las Vegas Raiders
9/28/25 4:26PM
Bears
Raiders
+100
-120
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 8:21PM EDT
Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
9/28/25 8:21PM
Packers
Cowboys
-325
+250
-7 (-105)
+7 (-115)
O 47 (-110)
U 47 (-110)
Sep 29, 2025 7:15PM EDT
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
9/29/25 7:15PM
Jets
Dolphins
+125
-150
+3 (-115)
-3 (-105)
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
Sep 29, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
9/29/25 8:15PM
Bengals
Broncos
+310
-400
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Oct 2, 2025 8:16PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
10/2/25 8:16PM
49ers
Rams
+134
-158
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
O 47.5 (-105)
U 47.5 (-115)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders on December 29, 2024 at Northwest Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS
GB@CLE GB -7 54.3% 4 LOSS
ARI@SF ARI +3 57.7% 6 WIN
KC@NYG PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
GB@CLE JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIA@BUF TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@LV LAC -3 54.9% 4 WIN
TB@HOU BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 54.4% 4 WIN
CHI@DET DET -6.5 54.3% 4 WIN
DEN@IND DEN -118 60.1% 10 LOSS
PHI@KC PHI -115 56.7% 6 WIN
SF@NO SF -3 58.8% 8 WIN
SEA@PIT OVER 40 54.9% 4 WIN
CAR@ARI BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
DEN@IND JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 54.7% 4 WIN
ATL@MIN BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 53.4% 3 WIN
WAS@GB WAS +3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
WAS@GB JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
MIN@CHI CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS 53.4% 3 LOSS
TEN@DEN DEN -8.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
SF@SEA SF -115 54.6% 4 WIN
SF@SEA KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS 54.6% 4 WIN
CAR@JAC TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT 56.1% 6 LOSS
KC@LAC JUSTIN HERBERT UNDER 0.5 INT 54.1% 3 WIN
DAL@PHI GEORGE PICKENS LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 22.5 YDS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@PHI JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 16.5 RECV YDS 53.90% 5 WIN
KC@PHI DEVONTA SMITH LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 20.5 YDS 54.40% 6 WIN
KC@PHI PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 68.3% PASS COMP 55.00% 8 WIN
KC@PHI JALEN HURTS LONGEST RUSH OVER 12.5 YDS 55.60% 8 WIN
BUF@KC DALTON KINCAID OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.10% 8 LOSS
WAS@PHI DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS 55.80% 8 WIN
BUF@KC JAMES COOK ANYTIME TD 53.00% 5 WIN
LAR@PHI SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 128 RUSH + REC YDS 53.20% 5 LOSS
BAL@BUF LAMAR JACKSON OVER 54.5 RUSH YDS 54.50% 6 LOSS
HOU@KC C.J. STROUD RUSH YDS UNDER 14.5 53.10% 5 LOSS
WAS@DET JAMESON WILLIAMS RUSH YDS OVER 1.5 53.30% 5 WIN
WAS@DET JARED GOFF PASS COMP % UNDER 72.3 54.30% 6 WIN
MIN@LAR COOPER KUPP ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN 52.60% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAR MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 21.5 PASS COMP 54.10% 6 LOSS
WAS@TB BRIAN ROBINSON JR OVER 1.5 REC TARGETS 53.50% 5 WIN
WAS@TB BAKER MAYFIELD UNDER 33.5 PASS ATT 54.90% 6 WIN
GB@PHI JALEN HURTS OVER 67.1 PASS COMP PERCENTAGE 54.60% 6 LOSS
LAC@HOU J.K. DOBBINS ANYTIME TD 52.80% 3 LOSS
LAC@HOU LAC -2.5 53.40% 3 LOSS
LAC@HOU JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 19.5 RUSH YDS 53.40% 5 LOSS