Patriots vs Bills Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Dec 22)
Updated: 2024-12-15T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The New England Patriots (3-11) are set to face the Buffalo Bills (11-3) on December 22, 2024, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills, leading the AFC East, are 14.5-point favorites against the Patriots, who are enduring a challenging season and are significant underdogs.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Dec 22, 2024
Start Time: 5:25 PM EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Bills Record: (11-3)
Patriots Record: (3-11)
OPENING ODDS
NE Moneyline: +642
BUF Moneyline: -980
NE Spread: +14
BUF Spread: -14.0
Over/Under: 46.5
NE
Betting Trends
- The Patriots have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 5-9 record. They have failed to cover the spread in their last three games, including a 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, where they were 7-point underdogs. Offensive inefficiencies and defensive lapses have contributed to their inability to meet betting expectations.
BUF
Betting Trends
- The Bills have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record this season. They have covered the spread in four of their last five games, including a 48-42 victory over the Detroit Lions, where they were favored by 6 points. Quarterback Josh Allen’s dynamic play and a high-scoring offense have been pivotal in surpassing betting lines.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- An interesting ATS statistic is the Patriots’ status as 14.5-point underdogs, marking their largest underdog position in 32 years. The last time they were such significant underdogs was in 1992, when they were 16.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, a game they lost 27-20.
NE vs. BUF
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
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New England vs Buffalo Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 12/22/24
The running game, featuring Devin Singletary and James Cook, provides balance, combining for over 1,500 rushing yards. Defensively, the Bills have been formidable, particularly against the pass, allowing just 200 passing yards per game. The defensive front, led by Von Miller and Ed Oliver, has accumulated 40 sacks, applying relentless pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The secondary, anchored by Tre’Davious White, has been opportunistic, securing 15 interceptions, contributing to a +10 turnover differential. Special teams could play a pivotal role in this matchup. The Bills’ kicker, Tyler Bass, has been reliable, converting 90% of his field goal attempts, while punter Sam Martin has effectively managed field position. The Patriots’ special teams unit has been less consistent, with missed field goals and subpar punt coverage contributing to unfavorable field positions. For the Patriots to compete, they will need to establish the run to control the clock and keep Allen off the field. Defensively, generating pressure on Allen without compromising coverage will be essential to disrupt the Bills’ offensive rhythm. The secondary must be disciplined to contain Diggs and prevent explosive plays. The Bills will look to exploit the Patriots’ defensive weaknesses, utilizing a balanced attack to keep the defense off balance. Defensively, maintaining pressure on Jones and shutting down the run game will force the Patriots into predictable passing situations, where the Bills’ secondary can capitalize. In summary, this AFC East clash features two teams on divergent paths. The Bills’ high-powered offense and stout defense position them as clear favorites, but divisional matchups often carry unpredictability. Key factors will include the Patriots’ ability to control the clock, limit turnovers, and execute in critical situations, while the Bills will aim to maintain their offensive efficiency and defensive dominance to secure a victory that would further solidify their standing in the AFC playoff picture.
Discussing Drake Maye’s versatility & other #NEvsAZ film notes 🎥@ezlazar’s full review: https://t.co/g7eL3nqnFg pic.twitter.com/X59pQoe7DF
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 17, 2024
New England Patriots NFL Preview
The New England Patriots head into this Week 16 matchup against the Buffalo Bills with a 3-11 record, marking one of the most challenging seasons in recent franchise history. Under head coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots have struggled with offensive inefficiency, defensive lapses, and a lack of consistency on both sides of the ball. As they prepare to face a dominant Buffalo team on the road, the Patriots will need to deliver a near-flawless performance to remain competitive. Quarterback Mac Jones has endured a difficult season, marred by inconsistent play and struggles to protect the football. Jones has thrown for 2,800 yards with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, but he has often been let down by an underperforming offensive line that has allowed 35 sacks this season. The lack of protection has forced Jones into hurried decisions, resulting in turnovers and stalled drives. If the Patriots hope to keep pace with Buffalo’s high-powered offense, Jones will need to play mistake-free football and find ways to capitalize on limited opportunities. The Patriots’ ground game, led by Rhamondre Stevenson, has been one of the few bright spots on offense. Stevenson has rushed for 700 yards and 4 touchdowns, showcasing his physical running style and ability to gain yards after contact. However, opposing defenses have frequently stacked the box against him, daring Jones to beat them through the air. Without consistent production from wide receivers Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, and rookie Demario Douglas, the Patriots’ passing game has lacked explosiveness. Tight end Hunter Henry has been a reliable target in the red zone, but the Patriots have struggled to sustain drives and score points. Defensively, the Patriots have had flashes of solid play but remain inconsistent overall. The secondary, led by cornerback J.C. Jackson, has performed admirably at times, securing 10 interceptions this season. However, the front seven has been vulnerable, allowing 130 rushing yards per game, which has put added pressure on the secondary to hold up against play-action and deep passes. In their most recent loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the defense allowed 150 rushing yards, underscoring a key area of concern heading into this matchup against Buffalo’s balanced offensive attack. The Patriots’ pass rush has also struggled to generate consistent pressure, registering just 22 sacks on the season. Without a strong pass rush, containing Josh Allen will be a monumental challenge. If the Patriots cannot disrupt Allen in the pocket, he will have ample time to find Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, leading to explosive plays downfield. Special teams have been a mixed bag for New England this season. Kicker Chad Ryland has been inconsistent, missing crucial field goals, while the punt coverage unit has given up costly returns. For the Patriots to stay competitive, they will need their special teams to deliver a clean performance and potentially create game-changing plays. The Patriots’ path to victory lies in establishing the run early with Stevenson to control the clock and limit Buffalo’s possessions. Mac Jones must play efficiently, avoiding turnovers, while the defense must find a way to pressure Allen and contain Diggs. Although the odds are stacked against them, divisional matchups can often bring unexpected results, and the Patriots will look to play spoiler in Buffalo. While their season is effectively over, a competitive showing against a top team like the Bills would provide a measure of pride and a potential building block for next season. Bill Belichick’s squad will aim to deliver a gritty performance, but they face a monumental challenge against one of the league’s best teams.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Buffalo Bills NFL Preview
The Buffalo Bills, leading the AFC East with an 11-3 record, are set to host the New England Patriots in a Week 16 matchup at Highmark Stadium. Under the guidance of head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills have established themselves as one of the premier teams in the NFL, combining a high-octane offense with a resilient defense. Quarterback Josh Allen continues to be the linchpin of the Bills’ offense. Allen has passed for over 4,200 yards and 35 touchdowns, showcasing his strong arm and ability to make plays both in and out of the pocket. His mobility adds another dimension, as he has rushed for 500 yards and 7 touchdowns, making him a dual-threat that defenses struggle to contain. Allen’s leadership and ability to perform in high-pressure situations have been key to the Bills’ success, and his connection with star wide receiver Stefon Diggs has once again been one of the league’s most productive partnerships. Diggs has recorded 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns this season, using his elite route running and strong hands to dominate opposing secondaries. Beyond Diggs, the Bills’ receiving corps has benefited from contributions by Gabe Davis, who serves as a reliable deep threat, and tight end Dalton Kincaid, whose presence in the middle of the field has provided Allen with another reliable target. Running backs Devin Singletary and James Cook have provided a strong one-two punch in the backfield, combining for over 1,500 rushing yards this season. Singletary’s physicality and Cook’s speed allow the Bills to maintain offensive balance, ensuring they can adapt to whatever defenses present. The offensive line has also been a strength, providing Allen with time to operate and opening lanes for the rushing attack. With their ability to control the line of scrimmage, the Bills’ offense remains one of the most dangerous in the league, averaging 30 points per game, good for second-best in the NFL. Defensively, the Bills have been equally dominant, particularly in limiting opposing passing attacks. The defensive front, led by future Hall of Famer Von Miller and standout defensive tackle Ed Oliver, has wreaked havoc on quarterbacks all season. The Bills’ pass rush has accumulated 40 sacks to date, forcing hurried throws and creating turnover opportunities. Miller, despite returning from injury earlier in the season, remains a leader on and off the field, and his presence has inspired strong performances from younger players like Greg Rousseau. The secondary, featuring cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, has been opportunistic, generating 15 interceptions. This group has consistently shut down elite receivers and limited big plays, allowing just 200 passing yards per game. Against a Patriots offense that has struggled to generate explosive plays, the Bills’ secondary will look to capitalize on any mistakes by quarterback Mac Jones. The Bills’ special teams unit has been rock solid. Kicker Tyler Bass has converted 90% of his field goal attempts, providing reliability in close games, while punter Sam Martin consistently pins opponents deep in their own territory. Buffalo’s return game, led by Khalil Shakir, has also provided occasional sparks, helping the offense start with advantageous field position. For the Bills, the key to victory will be to execute their balanced offense and take advantage of mismatches against New England’s struggling defense. Josh Allen will aim to spread the ball to Diggs, Davis, and Kincaid while the running game keeps the Patriots’ defense off balance. On defense, containing Rhamondre Stevenson and generating pressure on Mac Jones will force the Patriots into predictable passing situations, where Buffalo’s pass rush and opportunistic secondary can dominate. A win in this game would push the Bills closer to securing the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With their dominant form and the energy of the home crowd at Highmark Stadium, Buffalo will look to deliver a decisive victory against their longtime division rivals.
BILLS WIN!!!!!!!!#BUFvsDET | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/HywJQlU6zu
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 16, 2024
New England vs. Buffalo Prop Picks (AI)
New England vs. Buffalo Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over millions of data from every angle between the Patriots and Bills and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most watching on the linear correlation of emphasis emotional bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a Patriots team going up against a possibly deflated Bills team. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI New England vs Buffalo picks, computer picks Patriots vs Bills, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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NFL | 10/20 | HOU@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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NFL | 10/20 | HOU@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.
Patriots Betting Trends
The Patriots have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 5-9 record. They have failed to cover the spread in their last three games, including a 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, where they were 7-point underdogs. Offensive inefficiencies and defensive lapses have contributed to their inability to meet betting expectations.
Bills Betting Trends
The Bills have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record this season. They have covered the spread in four of their last five games, including a 48-42 victory over the Detroit Lions, where they were favored by 6 points. Quarterback Josh Allen’s dynamic play and a high-scoring offense have been pivotal in surpassing betting lines.
Patriots vs. Bills Matchup Trends
An interesting ATS statistic is the Patriots’ status as 14.5-point underdogs, marking their largest underdog position in 32 years. The last time they were such significant underdogs was in 1992, when they were 16.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, a game they lost 27-20.
New England vs. Buffalo Game Info
What time does New England vs Buffalo start on December 22, 2024?
New England vs Buffalo starts on December 22, 2024 at 5:25 PM EST.
Where is New England vs Buffalo being played?
Venue: Highmark Stadium.
What are the opening odds for New England vs Buffalo?
Spread: Buffalo -14.0
Moneyline: New England +642, Buffalo -980
Over/Under: 46.5
What are the records for New England vs Buffalo?
New England: (3-11) | Buffalo: (11-3)
What is the AI best bet for New England vs Buffalo?
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are New England vs Buffalo trending bets?
An interesting ATS statistic is the Patriots’ status as 14.5-point underdogs, marking their largest underdog position in 32 years. The last time they were such significant underdogs was in 1992, when they were 16.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, a game they lost 27-20.
What are New England trending bets?
NE trend: The Patriots have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 5-9 record. They have failed to cover the spread in their last three games, including a 30-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, where they were 7-point underdogs. Offensive inefficiencies and defensive lapses have contributed to their inability to meet betting expectations.
What are Buffalo trending bets?
BUF trend: The Bills have been more reliable for bettors, boasting a 9-5 ATS record this season. They have covered the spread in four of their last five games, including a 48-42 victory over the Detroit Lions, where they were favored by 6 points. Quarterback Josh Allen’s dynamic play and a high-scoring offense have been pivotal in surpassing betting lines.
Where can I find AI Picks for New England vs Buffalo?
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.
New England vs. Buffalo Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the New England vs Buffalo trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
New England vs Buffalo Opening Odds
NE Moneyline:
+642 BUF Moneyline: -980
NE Spread: +14
BUF Spread: -14.0
Over/Under: 46.5
New England vs Buffalo Live Odds
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–
–
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+150
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+3 (+101)
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O 44.5 (-113)
U 44.5 (-102)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
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+289
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+7 (-105)
-7 (-105)
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O 40.5 (-107)
U 40.5 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
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Panthers
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–
–
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-390
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-7.5 (+103)
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O 45.5 (-107)
U 45.5 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
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Jets
Bengals
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–
–
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+252
-310
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+7 (-114)
-7 (+103)
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O 44.5 (-102)
U 44.5 (-113)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Chicago Bears
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10/26/25 1PM
Bears
Ravens
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–
–
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+260
-320
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+6.5 (-101)
-6.5 (-109)
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O 50 (-107)
U 50 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
10/26/25 1PM
Giants
Eagles
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–
–
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+299
-375
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+7 (-105)
-7 (-105)
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O 44 (-107)
U 44 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
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10/26/25 1PM
49ers
Texans
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–
–
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+103
-123
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+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+100)
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O 41.5 (-107)
U 41.5 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
10/26/25 1PM
Dolphins
Falcons
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–
–
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+280
-350
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+7 (-105)
-7 (-105)
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O 44.5 (-107)
U 44.5 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 4:05PM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
10/26/25 4:05PM
Buccaneers
Saints
|
–
–
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-220
+186
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-4 (-109)
+4 (-101)
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O 47 (+103)
U 47 (-118)
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Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
10/26/25 4:25PM
Cowboys
Broncos
|
–
–
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+149
-170
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+3.5 (-114)
-3.5 (+103)
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O 50.5 (-107)
U 50.5 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
10/26/25 4:25PM
Titans
Colts
|
–
–
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+754
-1200
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+14 (-103)
-14 (-107)
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O 47 (-107)
U 47 (-107)
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Oct 26, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/26/25 8:20PM
Packers
Steelers
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–
–
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-177
+155
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-3 (-110)
+3 (+100)
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O 45 (-110)
U 45 (-104)
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Oct 27, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Washington Commanders
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10/27/25 8:15PM
Commanders
Chiefs
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–
–
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+431
-575
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+10.5 (-112)
-10.5 (+101)
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O 48 (-104)
U 48 (-110)
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Oct 30, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
10/30/25 8:15PM
Ravens
Dolphins
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–
–
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-360
+285
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-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
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O 50.5 (-110)
U 50.5 (-110)
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Nov 2, 2025 1:00PM EST
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
11/2/25 1PM
Bears
Bengals
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–
–
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-118
-102
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-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
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O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
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Nov 2, 2025 1:00PM EST
Indianapolis Colts
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11/2/25 1PM
Colts
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–
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-125
+105
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-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
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O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
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NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills on December 22, 2024 at Highmark Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
NE@TEN | NE -6.5 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
CAR@NYJ | CAR -110 | 57.4 | 4 | WIN |
PHI@MIN | PHI -130 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
GB@ARI | ARI +7 | 54.8% | 5 | WIN |
NO@CHI | NO +4.5 | 57.4% | 7 | LOSS |
WAS@DAL | JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
GB@ARI | JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
PIT@CIN | JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
BUF@ATL | BUF -3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
CHI@WAS | JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
TEN@LV | UNDER 42 | 54.8% | 3 | WIN |
DET@KC | DET +2.5 | 55.7% | 7 | LOSS |
SEA@JAC | SEA -112 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
LAC@MIA | LAC -3.5 | 54.0% | 3 | LOSS |
ARI@IND | IND -8.5 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
TEN@LV | TEN +4.5 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
LAR@BAL | LAR -7 | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
SF@TB | SF +3.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
CLE@PIT | JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@NYJ | BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS | 55.0% | 4 | LOSS |
KC@JAC | UNDER 45.5 | 54.9% | 3 | LOSS |
KC@JAC | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
HOU@BAL | HOU -125 | 58.5% | 7 | WIN |
DET@CIN | DET -10 | 55.6% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@NYJ | NYJ +1.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@SEA | TB +3.5 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TEN@ARI | ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@PHI | DEN +4.5 | 57.5% | 7 | WIN |
MIA@CAR | TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
LV@IND | ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
SF@LAR | DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | NYJ +3 | 53.8 | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |