Texans vs. Chiefs
Prediction, Odds & Props
Dec 21 | NFL AI Picks

Updated: 2024-12-14T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Houston Texans (9-5) are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This Week 16 matchup features two AFC contenders, with the Chiefs aiming to secure the top seed in the conference and the Texans fighting to maintain their playoff position.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Dec 21, 2024

Start Time: 2:00 PM EST​

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium​

Chiefs Record: (13-1)

Texans Record: (9-5)

OPENING ODDS

HOU Moneyline: -128

KC Moneyline: +108

HOU Spread: -2.5

KC Spread: +2.5

Over/Under: 40

HOU
Betting Trends

  • The Texans have been performing well against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games, including a recent 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Houston’s ability to cover on the road has been notable, making them a team to watch for bettors in this matchup.

KC
Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs, boasting a 13-1 record, have been less consistent ATS, standing at 7-7. Despite their impressive straight-up performance, they have struggled to cover the spread in several games. Notably, Kansas City has failed to cover in two of their last three home games, which could be a consideration for bettors.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • An interesting ATS statistic for this game is the Chiefs’ recent performance without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is currently listed as week-to-week with a mild high-ankle sprain. In games where Mahomes has been absent or limited, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread, which may influence betting decisions if he is unable to play.

HOU vs. KC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

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Houston vs Kansas City Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 12/21/24

The Houston Texans will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in a crucial Week 16 matchup that carries significant playoff implications for both teams. The Chiefs, with a 13-1 record, are on the verge of securing the AFC’s top seed, while the Texans, at 9-5, are vying to solidify their postseason berth. A key storyline heading into this game is the health of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a mild high-ankle sprain in the recent victory over the Cleveland Browns. Mahomes is considered week-to-week, and his availability for the Texans game remains uncertain. If Mahomes is unable to play, veteran backup Carson Wentz is expected to start, which could significantly impact the Chiefs’ offensive dynamics. The Texans, coming off a 20-12 win against the Miami Dolphins, have demonstrated resilience throughout the season. Their defense has been particularly effective, ranking eighth in the league by allowing 330.3 yards per game. Offensively, quarterback C.J. Stroud has shown growth in his sophomore season, leading an attack that averages 23.7 points per game. Kansas City’s offense, even with potential uncertainties at the quarterback position, remains formidable.

The possible return of wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who has been practicing ahead of schedule following a sternoclavicular shoulder joint injury, could provide a boost to their receiving corps. Defensively, the Chiefs have been stout, allowing just 19.6 points per game, ranking them eighth in the league. The betting lines for this game have been influenced by Mahomes’ injury status. The Chiefs are currently favored by 4.5 points, with an over/under set at 47 points. Bettors should monitor Mahomes’ status closely, as his availability could sway both the point spread and the total. This matchup not only features two teams with playoff aspirations but also presents intriguing strategic battles. The Texans’ defense will aim to capitalize on any offensive adjustments the Chiefs may need to make if Mahomes is sidelined, while Kansas City’s defense will look to contain Stroud and the Texans’ balanced offensive attack. As the regular season nears its conclusion, this game stands as a pivotal moment for both franchises. The outcome will have lasting implications on playoff seeding and momentum heading into the postseason. Fans can anticipate a competitive and strategically rich contest at Arrowhead Stadium.

Houston Texans NFL Preview

The Houston Texans come into this critical Week 16 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 9-5 record and plenty to play for. Under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have emerged as one of the NFL’s most surprising and competitive teams this season. They have been fueled by a young core, defensive intensity, and the development of quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has made significant strides in his sophomore year. Offensively, Stroud has been the centerpiece of Houston’s success, displaying poise, accuracy, and a growing ability to read defenses. He has thrown for over 3,500 yards this season, with 24 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions, showcasing his rapid development. Stroud’s chemistry with wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell has been a major strength for the Texans, with both playmakers consistently producing big plays downfield. Tight end Dalton Schultz has also emerged as a reliable target in critical situations, giving Stroud a safety valve in the short passing game. The Texans’ ground game has been equally important in balancing the offense. Running back Dameon Pierce has led the charge, accumulating over 800 yards on the ground this season. His physical running style and ability to break tackles have helped Houston control the clock and keep opposing defenses on their heels. Backup Devin Singletary has also contributed effectively in a complementary role, providing fresh legs and a change of pace when needed. Defensively, Houston has been one of the more improved units in the NFL under DeMeco Ryans’ leadership. The defensive front, led by rookie standout Will Anderson Jr. and veteran Jonathan Greenard, has been particularly disruptive, ranking among the league leaders in sacks and quarterback pressures. The Texans’ ability to generate a consistent pass rush has been critical to their success, forcing opposing quarterbacks into hurried throws and turnovers. Linebacker Christian Harris has emerged as a key contributor, while the secondary, featuring Derek Stingley Jr. and Jimmie Ward, has been effective in limiting big plays. The Texans’ defense will face a significant challenge against Kansas City’s high-powered offense, even if Patrick Mahomes is unavailable. The unit must focus on limiting big gains from playmakers like Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco, while also keeping backup quarterback Carson Wentz under constant pressure if he starts. Forcing turnovers will be key, as the Texans have thrived when they win the turnover battle this season. Houston’s ability to compete in this game will hinge on their offensive line’s ability to protect Stroud against Kansas City’s formidable pass rush. If Stroud can stay upright and continue finding his playmakers, the Texans have a legitimate shot at pulling off an upset. Establishing the run early with Pierce and controlling the pace of the game will also be critical for Houston to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field. This game represents a major test for the Texans, as they look to prove they belong among the AFC’s elite teams. A victory over the Chiefs would solidify their playoff position and send a strong message to the rest of the league. With a young, hungry roster and a defense that can create havoc, Houston enters this matchup as a dangerous underdog capable of pulling off a surprise at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Houston Texans (9-5) are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This Week 16 matchup features two AFC contenders, with the Chiefs aiming to secure the top seed in the conference and the Texans fighting to maintain their playoff position. Houston vs Kansas City AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Dec 21. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Kansas City Chiefs NFL Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 16 with a stellar 13-1 record, positioning them at the top of the AFC and within reach of securing the conference’s number one seed. However, the team faces significant challenges, particularly concerning the health of star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes sustained a mild high-ankle sprain during the Chiefs’ recent victory over the Cleveland Browns. Head coach Andy Reid has indicated that Mahomes is considered week-to-week, casting doubt on his availability for the upcoming game against the Houston Texans. In Mahomes’ potential absence, veteran quarterback Carson Wentz is expected to lead the offense. Wentz, who has prior starting experience with the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts, will need to quickly acclimate to the Chiefs’ offensive system to maintain their high level of play. Offensively, the Chiefs have been prolific, averaging 24.1 points per game. The possible return of wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown could provide a significant boost. Brown has been practicing ahead of schedule following a sternoclavicular shoulder joint injury and has looked “quick and impressive” in recent sessions. His presence would add a deep-threat element to the Chiefs’ passing game, complementing the talents of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The running game, led by Isiah Pacheco, has been effective, averaging 111.8 rushing yards per game. Pacheco’s physical running style has been instrumental in sustaining drives and balancing the offensive attack. The offensive line, though dealing with injuries, has provided solid protection, allowing the Chiefs to execute their game plans effectively. Defensively, Kansas City has been formidable, allowing just 19.6 points per game, ranking eighth in the league. The defensive front, anchored by Chris Jones, has been adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, while the secondary has been effective in limiting big plays. Linebacker Nick Bolton has been a standout, leading the team in tackles and providing leadership on the field. The Chiefs’ ability to control games on defense will be critical, especially if Mahomes is sidelined or limited. Against a Houston Texans team that has shown steady offensive improvement behind quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Kansas City defense must focus on stopping the run and forcing Stroud into uncomfortable situations. This means maintaining gap discipline to limit running back Dameon Pierce and applying consistent pressure with their pass rush. Special teams could also play a pivotal role in this game. Kicker Harrison Butker has been reliable all season, converting on 90% of his field goal attempts, which could be critical in what might be a lower-scoring, defense-heavy contest. The Chiefs’ coverage teams will need to be sharp against a Texans unit that has explosive potential on returns. Overall, Kansas City’s approach will hinge on their ability to adapt offensively if Mahomes is unavailable or limited. Carson Wentz, if called upon, will need to avoid turnovers and execute a simplified game plan designed around the Chiefs’ playmakers, particularly Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. Defensively, the Chiefs will rely on their elite pass rush and coverage unit to disrupt Houston’s offensive rhythm. A win here would allow Kansas City to move one step closer to securing the AFC’s top seed, a goal that has been central to their season. The Chiefs will also look to leverage the Arrowhead crowd to their advantage. Known for being one of the loudest stadiums in the league, the home-field environment could play a significant role in rattling Stroud and the Texans’ offense. Kansas City remains a team built to contend for a Super Bowl, and even with challenges surrounding Mahomes’ health, their depth, coaching, and defensive prowess provide them with a clear path to victory.

Houston vs. Kansas City Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Texans and Chiefs play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Dec almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.

Houston vs. Kansas City Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every angle between the Texans and Chiefs and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the trending emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on player performance factors between a Texans team going up against a possibly healthy Chiefs team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Houston vs Kansas City picks, computer picks Texans vs Chiefs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Texans Betting Trends

The Texans have been performing well against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games, including a recent 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Houston’s ability to cover on the road has been notable, making them a team to watch for bettors in this matchup.

Chiefs Betting Trends

The Chiefs, boasting a 13-1 record, have been less consistent ATS, standing at 7-7. Despite their impressive straight-up performance, they have struggled to cover the spread in several games. Notably, Kansas City has failed to cover in two of their last three home games, which could be a consideration for bettors.

Texans vs. Chiefs Matchup Trends

An interesting ATS statistic for this game is the Chiefs’ recent performance without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is currently listed as week-to-week with a mild high-ankle sprain. In games where Mahomes has been absent or limited, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread, which may influence betting decisions if he is unable to play.

Houston vs. Kansas City Game Info

Houston vs Kansas City starts on December 21, 2024 at 2:00 PM EST.

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Spread: Kansas City +2.5
Moneyline: Houston -128, Kansas City +108
Over/Under: 40

Houston: (9-5)  |  Kansas City: (13-1)

Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

An interesting ATS statistic for this game is the Chiefs’ recent performance without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is currently listed as week-to-week with a mild high-ankle sprain. In games where Mahomes has been absent or limited, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread, which may influence betting decisions if he is unable to play.

HOU trend: The Texans have been performing well against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games, including a recent 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Houston’s ability to cover on the road has been notable, making them a team to watch for bettors in this matchup.

KC trend: The Chiefs, boasting a 13-1 record, have been less consistent ATS, standing at 7-7. Despite their impressive straight-up performance, they have struggled to cover the spread in several games. Notably, Kansas City has failed to cover in two of their last three home games, which could be a consideration for bettors.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.

Houston vs. Kansas City Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each team. In fact, anytime the Houston vs Kansas City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.

Houston vs Kansas City Opening Odds

HOU Moneyline: -128
KC Moneyline: +108
HOU Spread: -2.5
KC Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 40

Houston vs Kansas City Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Sep 28, 2025 9:31AM EDT
Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers
9/28/25 9:31AM
Vikings
Steelers
-140
+115
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
O 41 (-110)
U 41 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
9/28/25 1PM
Browns
Lions
+400
-550
+10 (-110)
-10 (-110)
O 44.5 (-105)
U 44.5 (-115)
Sep 28, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
New York Giants
9/28/25 1PM
Chargers
Giants
-285
+230
-6.5 (-105)
+6.5 (-115)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
9/28/25 1:01PM
Titans
Texans
+300
-375
+7 (-105)
-7 (-115)
O 39 (-110)
U 39 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9/28/25 1:01PM
Eagles
Buccaneers
-190
+160
-3.5 (-105)
+3.5 (-115)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Washington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons
9/28/25 1:01PM
Commanders
Falcons
+110
-130
+2 (-110)
-2 (-110)
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
New Orleans Saints
Buffalo Bills
9/28/25 1:01PM
Saints
Bills
+800
-1300
+15 (-110)
-15 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots
9/28/25 1:01PM
Panthers
Patriots
+200
-250
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
O 43 (-110)
U 43 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers
9/28/25 4:06PM
Jaguars
49ers
+150
-180
+3.5 (-115)
-3.5 (-105)
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams
9/28/25 4:06PM
Colts
Rams
+160
-190
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
9/28/25 4:25PM
Ravens
Chiefs
-150
+125
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (+100)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Las Vegas Raiders
9/28/25 4:26PM
Bears
Raiders
+100
-120
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Sep 28, 2025 8:21PM EDT
Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
9/28/25 8:21PM
Packers
Cowboys
-325
+250
-7 (-105)
+7 (-115)
O 47 (-110)
U 47 (-110)
Sep 29, 2025 7:15PM EDT
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
9/29/25 7:15PM
Jets
Dolphins
+125
-150
+3 (-115)
-3 (-105)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Sep 29, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
9/29/25 8:15PM
Bengals
Broncos
+310
-400
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Oct 2, 2025 8:16PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams
10/2/25 8:16PM
49ers
Rams
+134
-158
+3 (-105)
-3 (-115)
O 47 (-110)
U 47 (-110)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs on December 21, 2024 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS
GB@CLE GB -7 54.3% 4 LOSS
ARI@SF ARI +3 57.7% 6 WIN
KC@NYG PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
GB@CLE JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIA@BUF TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@LV LAC -3 54.9% 4 WIN
TB@HOU BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 54.4% 4 WIN
CHI@DET DET -6.5 54.3% 4 WIN
DEN@IND DEN -118 60.1% 10 LOSS
PHI@KC PHI -115 56.7% 6 WIN
SF@NO SF -3 58.8% 8 WIN
SEA@PIT OVER 40 54.9% 4 WIN
CAR@ARI BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
DEN@IND JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 54.7% 4 WIN
ATL@MIN BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 53.4% 3 WIN
WAS@GB WAS +3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
WAS@GB JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
MIN@CHI CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS 53.4% 3 LOSS
TEN@DEN DEN -8.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
SF@SEA SF -115 54.6% 4 WIN
SF@SEA KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS 54.6% 4 WIN
CAR@JAC TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT 56.1% 6 LOSS
KC@LAC JUSTIN HERBERT UNDER 0.5 INT 54.1% 3 WIN
DAL@PHI GEORGE PICKENS LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 22.5 YDS 54.1% 4 LOSS
KC@PHI JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 16.5 RECV YDS 53.90% 5 WIN
KC@PHI DEVONTA SMITH LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 20.5 YDS 54.40% 6 WIN
KC@PHI PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 68.3% PASS COMP 55.00% 8 WIN
KC@PHI JALEN HURTS LONGEST RUSH OVER 12.5 YDS 55.60% 8 WIN
BUF@KC DALTON KINCAID OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.10% 8 LOSS
WAS@PHI DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS 55.80% 8 WIN
BUF@KC JAMES COOK ANYTIME TD 53.00% 5 WIN
LAR@PHI SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 128 RUSH + REC YDS 53.20% 5 LOSS
BAL@BUF LAMAR JACKSON OVER 54.5 RUSH YDS 54.50% 6 LOSS
HOU@KC C.J. STROUD RUSH YDS UNDER 14.5 53.10% 5 LOSS
WAS@DET JAMESON WILLIAMS RUSH YDS OVER 1.5 53.30% 5 WIN
WAS@DET JARED GOFF PASS COMP % UNDER 72.3 54.30% 6 WIN
MIN@LAR COOPER KUPP ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN 52.60% 3 LOSS
MIN@LAR MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 21.5 PASS COMP 54.10% 6 LOSS
WAS@TB BRIAN ROBINSON JR OVER 1.5 REC TARGETS 53.50% 5 WIN
WAS@TB BAKER MAYFIELD UNDER 33.5 PASS ATT 54.90% 6 WIN
GB@PHI JALEN HURTS OVER 67.1 PASS COMP PERCENTAGE 54.60% 6 LOSS
LAC@HOU J.K. DOBBINS ANYTIME TD 52.80% 3 LOSS
LAC@HOU LAC -2.5 53.40% 3 LOSS
LAC@HOU JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 19.5 RUSH YDS 53.40% 5 LOSS