Texans vs Chiefs Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Dec 21)
Updated: 2024-12-14T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Houston Texans (9-5) are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) on Saturday, December 21, 2024, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This Week 16 matchup features two AFC contenders, with the Chiefs aiming to secure the top seed in the conference and the Texans fighting to maintain their playoff position.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Dec 21, 2024
Start Time: 2:00 PM EST
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Chiefs Record: (13-1)
Texans Record: (9-5)
OPENING ODDS
HOU Moneyline: -128
KC Moneyline: +108
HOU Spread: -2.5
KC Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 40
HOU
Betting Trends
- The Texans have been performing well against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games, including a recent 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Houston’s ability to cover on the road has been notable, making them a team to watch for bettors in this matchup.
KC
Betting Trends
- The Chiefs, boasting a 13-1 record, have been less consistent ATS, standing at 7-7. Despite their impressive straight-up performance, they have struggled to cover the spread in several games. Notably, Kansas City has failed to cover in two of their last three home games, which could be a consideration for bettors.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- An interesting ATS statistic for this game is the Chiefs’ recent performance without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is currently listed as week-to-week with a mild high-ankle sprain. In games where Mahomes has been absent or limited, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread, which may influence betting decisions if he is unable to play.
HOU vs. KC
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.
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Houston vs Kansas City Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 12/21/24
The possible return of wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who has been practicing ahead of schedule following a sternoclavicular shoulder joint injury, could provide a boost to their receiving corps. Defensively, the Chiefs have been stout, allowing just 19.6 points per game, ranking them eighth in the league. The betting lines for this game have been influenced by Mahomes’ injury status. The Chiefs are currently favored by 4.5 points, with an over/under set at 47 points. Bettors should monitor Mahomes’ status closely, as his availability could sway both the point spread and the total. This matchup not only features two teams with playoff aspirations but also presents intriguing strategic battles. The Texans’ defense will aim to capitalize on any offensive adjustments the Chiefs may need to make if Mahomes is sidelined, while Kansas City’s defense will look to contain Stroud and the Texans’ balanced offensive attack. As the regular season nears its conclusion, this game stands as a pivotal moment for both franchises. The outcome will have lasting implications on playoff seeding and momentum heading into the postseason. Fans can anticipate a competitive and strategically rich contest at Arrowhead Stadium.
BACK-TO-BACK DIVISION CHAMPS‼️ pic.twitter.com/5aS12CoyQk
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 16, 2024
Houston Texans NFL Preview
The Houston Texans come into this critical Week 16 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 9-5 record and plenty to play for. Under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have emerged as one of the NFL’s most surprising and competitive teams this season. They have been fueled by a young core, defensive intensity, and the development of quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has made significant strides in his sophomore year. Offensively, Stroud has been the centerpiece of Houston’s success, displaying poise, accuracy, and a growing ability to read defenses. He has thrown for over 3,500 yards this season, with 24 touchdowns against only 8 interceptions, showcasing his rapid development. Stroud’s chemistry with wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell has been a major strength for the Texans, with both playmakers consistently producing big plays downfield. Tight end Dalton Schultz has also emerged as a reliable target in critical situations, giving Stroud a safety valve in the short passing game. The Texans’ ground game has been equally important in balancing the offense. Running back Dameon Pierce has led the charge, accumulating over 800 yards on the ground this season. His physical running style and ability to break tackles have helped Houston control the clock and keep opposing defenses on their heels. Backup Devin Singletary has also contributed effectively in a complementary role, providing fresh legs and a change of pace when needed. Defensively, Houston has been one of the more improved units in the NFL under DeMeco Ryans’ leadership. The defensive front, led by rookie standout Will Anderson Jr. and veteran Jonathan Greenard, has been particularly disruptive, ranking among the league leaders in sacks and quarterback pressures. The Texans’ ability to generate a consistent pass rush has been critical to their success, forcing opposing quarterbacks into hurried throws and turnovers. Linebacker Christian Harris has emerged as a key contributor, while the secondary, featuring Derek Stingley Jr. and Jimmie Ward, has been effective in limiting big plays. The Texans’ defense will face a significant challenge against Kansas City’s high-powered offense, even if Patrick Mahomes is unavailable. The unit must focus on limiting big gains from playmakers like Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco, while also keeping backup quarterback Carson Wentz under constant pressure if he starts. Forcing turnovers will be key, as the Texans have thrived when they win the turnover battle this season. Houston’s ability to compete in this game will hinge on their offensive line’s ability to protect Stroud against Kansas City’s formidable pass rush. If Stroud can stay upright and continue finding his playmakers, the Texans have a legitimate shot at pulling off an upset. Establishing the run early with Pierce and controlling the pace of the game will also be critical for Houston to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field. This game represents a major test for the Texans, as they look to prove they belong among the AFC’s elite teams. A victory over the Chiefs would solidify their playoff position and send a strong message to the rest of the league. With a young, hungry roster and a defense that can create havoc, Houston enters this matchup as a dangerous underdog capable of pulling off a surprise at Arrowhead Stadium.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Kansas City Chiefs NFL Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 16 with a stellar 13-1 record, positioning them at the top of the AFC and within reach of securing the conference’s number one seed. However, the team faces significant challenges, particularly concerning the health of star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes sustained a mild high-ankle sprain during the Chiefs’ recent victory over the Cleveland Browns. Head coach Andy Reid has indicated that Mahomes is considered week-to-week, casting doubt on his availability for the upcoming game against the Houston Texans. In Mahomes’ potential absence, veteran quarterback Carson Wentz is expected to lead the offense. Wentz, who has prior starting experience with the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts, will need to quickly acclimate to the Chiefs’ offensive system to maintain their high level of play. Offensively, the Chiefs have been prolific, averaging 24.1 points per game. The possible return of wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown could provide a significant boost. Brown has been practicing ahead of schedule following a sternoclavicular shoulder joint injury and has looked “quick and impressive” in recent sessions. His presence would add a deep-threat element to the Chiefs’ passing game, complementing the talents of tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The running game, led by Isiah Pacheco, has been effective, averaging 111.8 rushing yards per game. Pacheco’s physical running style has been instrumental in sustaining drives and balancing the offensive attack. The offensive line, though dealing with injuries, has provided solid protection, allowing the Chiefs to execute their game plans effectively. Defensively, Kansas City has been formidable, allowing just 19.6 points per game, ranking eighth in the league. The defensive front, anchored by Chris Jones, has been adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, while the secondary has been effective in limiting big plays. Linebacker Nick Bolton has been a standout, leading the team in tackles and providing leadership on the field. The Chiefs’ ability to control games on defense will be critical, especially if Mahomes is sidelined or limited. Against a Houston Texans team that has shown steady offensive improvement behind quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Kansas City defense must focus on stopping the run and forcing Stroud into uncomfortable situations. This means maintaining gap discipline to limit running back Dameon Pierce and applying consistent pressure with their pass rush. Special teams could also play a pivotal role in this game. Kicker Harrison Butker has been reliable all season, converting on 90% of his field goal attempts, which could be critical in what might be a lower-scoring, defense-heavy contest. The Chiefs’ coverage teams will need to be sharp against a Texans unit that has explosive potential on returns. Overall, Kansas City’s approach will hinge on their ability to adapt offensively if Mahomes is unavailable or limited. Carson Wentz, if called upon, will need to avoid turnovers and execute a simplified game plan designed around the Chiefs’ playmakers, particularly Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. Defensively, the Chiefs will rely on their elite pass rush and coverage unit to disrupt Houston’s offensive rhythm. A win here would allow Kansas City to move one step closer to securing the AFC’s top seed, a goal that has been central to their season. The Chiefs will also look to leverage the Arrowhead crowd to their advantage. Known for being one of the loudest stadiums in the league, the home-field environment could play a significant role in rattling Stroud and the Texans’ offense. Kansas City remains a team built to contend for a Super Bowl, and even with challenges surrounding Mahomes’ health, their depth, coaching, and defensive prowess provide them with a clear path to victory.
Christmas came early for the Chiefense 🎁 pic.twitter.com/YYlm7JYf7I
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 17, 2024
Houston vs. Kansas City Prop Picks (AI)
Houston vs. Kansas City Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every facet between the Texans and Chiefs and using recursive machine learning and cutting-edge AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most fixated on the growing factor human bettors tend to put on player performance factors between a Texans team going up against a possibly strong Chiefs team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Houston vs Kansas City picks, computer picks Texans vs Chiefs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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NFL | 10/20 | HOU@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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NFL | 10/20 | HOU@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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NFL | 10/20 | TB@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.
Texans Betting Trends
The Texans have been performing well against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games, including a recent 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Houston’s ability to cover on the road has been notable, making them a team to watch for bettors in this matchup.
Chiefs Betting Trends
The Chiefs, boasting a 13-1 record, have been less consistent ATS, standing at 7-7. Despite their impressive straight-up performance, they have struggled to cover the spread in several games. Notably, Kansas City has failed to cover in two of their last three home games, which could be a consideration for bettors.
Texans vs. Chiefs Matchup Trends
An interesting ATS statistic for this game is the Chiefs’ recent performance without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is currently listed as week-to-week with a mild high-ankle sprain. In games where Mahomes has been absent or limited, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread, which may influence betting decisions if he is unable to play.
Houston vs. Kansas City Game Info
What time does Houston vs Kansas City start on December 21, 2024?
Houston vs Kansas City starts on December 21, 2024 at 2:00 PM EST.
Where is Houston vs Kansas City being played?
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
What are the opening odds for Houston vs Kansas City?
Spread: Kansas City +2.5
Moneyline: Houston -128, Kansas City +108
Over/Under: 40
What are the records for Houston vs Kansas City?
Houston: (9-5) | Kansas City: (13-1)
What is the AI best bet for Houston vs Kansas City?
Remi's searched hard and is crunching tons of data, but hasn't found a good Prop Bet yet for this game.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Houston vs Kansas City trending bets?
An interesting ATS statistic for this game is the Chiefs’ recent performance without quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is currently listed as week-to-week with a mild high-ankle sprain. In games where Mahomes has been absent or limited, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the spread, which may influence betting decisions if he is unable to play.
What are Houston trending bets?
HOU trend: The Texans have been performing well against the spread (ATS) this season, holding a 9-5 ATS record. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games, including a recent 20-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins. Houston’s ability to cover on the road has been notable, making them a team to watch for bettors in this matchup.
What are Kansas City trending bets?
KC trend: The Chiefs, boasting a 13-1 record, have been less consistent ATS, standing at 7-7. Despite their impressive straight-up performance, they have struggled to cover the spread in several games. Notably, Kansas City has failed to cover in two of their last three home games, which could be a consideration for bettors.
Where can I find AI Picks for Houston vs Kansas City?
See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.
Houston vs. Kansas City Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Houston vs Kansas City trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance can often follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Houston vs Kansas City Opening Odds
HOU Moneyline:
-128 KC Moneyline: +108
HOU Spread: -2.5
KC Spread: +2.5
Over/Under: 40
Houston vs Kansas City Live Odds
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O 50.5 (-105)
U 50.5 (-115)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
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Giants
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O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
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10/26/25 1PM
49ers
Texans
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–
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-108
-108
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+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-102)
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O 41.5 (-105)
U 41.5 (-115)
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Oct 26, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
10/26/25 1PM
Dolphins
Falcons
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–
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+280
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O 44.5 (-114)
U 44.5 (-106)
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Oct 26, 2025 4:05PM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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-235
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O 46.5 (-114)
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+146
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O 49.5 (-120)
U 49.5 (-102)
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-174
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+430
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NFL Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs on December 21, 2024 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
NE@TEN | NE -6.5 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
CAR@NYJ | CAR -110 | 57.4 | 4 | WIN |
PHI@MIN | PHI -130 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
GB@ARI | ARI +7 | 54.8% | 5 | WIN |
NO@CHI | NO +4.5 | 57.4% | 7 | LOSS |
WAS@DAL | JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
GB@ARI | JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
PIT@CIN | JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
BUF@ATL | BUF -3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
CHI@WAS | JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
TEN@LV | UNDER 42 | 54.8% | 3 | WIN |
DET@KC | DET +2.5 | 55.7% | 7 | LOSS |
SEA@JAC | SEA -112 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
LAC@MIA | LAC -3.5 | 54.0% | 3 | LOSS |
ARI@IND | IND -8.5 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
TEN@LV | TEN +4.5 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
LAR@BAL | LAR -7 | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
SF@TB | SF +3.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
CLE@PIT | JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@NYJ | BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS | 55.0% | 4 | LOSS |
KC@JAC | UNDER 45.5 | 54.9% | 3 | LOSS |
KC@JAC | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
HOU@BAL | HOU -125 | 58.5% | 7 | WIN |
DET@CIN | DET -10 | 55.6% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@NYJ | NYJ +1.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@SEA | TB +3.5 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TEN@ARI | ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@PHI | DEN +4.5 | 57.5% | 7 | WIN |
MIA@CAR | TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
LV@IND | ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
SF@LAR | DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | NYJ +3 | 53.8 | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |