Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NFL Lines & Props (Sep 22)

Updated: 2024-09-15T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Atlanta Falcons on September 22, 2024, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Chiefs enter the game as 3.5-point favorites, looking to improve to 3-0, while the Falcons are coming off a narrow road win and are 1-1 for the season.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Sep 22, 2024

Start Time: 8:20 PM EST​

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium​

Falcons Record: (1-1)

Chiefs Record: (2-0)

OPENING ODDS

KC Moneyline: -185

ATL Moneyline: +154

KC Spread: -3.5

ATL Spread: +3.5

Over/Under: 46.5

KC
Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and have covered in four of their last six games when favored by fewer than five points. However, the Chiefs’ struggles against the run have been apparent, which may impact their performance.

ATL
Betting Trends

  • The Falcons are 1-1 ATS this season, and they have been successful covering the spread in five of their last seven games as home underdogs. However, Atlanta’s inconsistency in their offense, led by Kirk Cousins, may pose a challenge against a strong Kansas City defense.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The Falcons have gone under the total points line in five of their last seven games, especially in matchups where they focus on running the ball. Meanwhile, Kansas City has struggled to stop the run, allowing a league-high 58% success rate on rushing plays, which may lead to a more ground-based game and could influence the point total.

KC vs. ATL
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and crunched the numbers and found the best prop bet play for this game: Rashee Rice Over 70.5 Total Receiving Yards

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Kansas City vs Atlanta Prediction & Odds:
Free NFL Betting Insights for 9/22/24

The Week 3 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons presents a classic clash between a high-powered offense and a team that thrives on controlling the pace of the game with the run. The Chiefs come into the game as the defending Super Bowl champions, and despite losing running back Isiah Pacheco to injury, their offense remains potent under Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has thrown for 641 yards and six touchdowns through two games, and while his deep threats are limited, his connection with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice has been critical in maintaining offensive efficiency. Atlanta, on the other hand, found some momentum in a surprising 28-27 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.

Kirk Cousins, who took over as the Falcons’ starting quarterback this season, will rely heavily on his running backs, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, to exploit Kansas City’s vulnerable run defense. Robinson has already tallied 221 rushing yards, and Atlanta will likely lean on him to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field. Defensively, the Falcons will face the tough task of containing Mahomes, but their success will depend on their ability to generate pressure without sacrificing coverage. If Atlanta can force Mahomes into quick throws and limit big plays, they may keep the game within reach. However, Kansas City’s pass rush, led by Chris Jones, could cause problems for Cousins, especially if Atlanta is forced to pass more than they would prefer.

Kansas City Chiefs NFL Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this Week 3 matchup looking to extend their winning streak to three games. Patrick Mahomes has been in excellent form, leading the league in passing touchdowns through two games. With running back Isiah Pacheco out due to injury, the Chiefs will lean on Carson Steele and Samaje Perine to carry the load in the ground game, but the offense will likely still revolve around Mahomes’ ability to create plays in the passing game. Kansas City’s defense has been aggressive, ranking among the top teams in terms of blitzing, and will look to disrupt Kirk Cousins’ rhythm. While their run defense has been a weak spot, allowing an average of 5.2 yards per carry, the Chiefs’ ability to generate pressure in passing situations could make the difference. If the Chiefs can jump out to an early lead, they can force Atlanta into a pass-heavy game plan, which would play into Kansas City’s defensive strengths. This game promises to be a battle of contrasting styles, with the Falcons trying to control the clock through their running game and the Chiefs looking to overwhelm Atlanta with their offensive firepower.

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Atlanta Falcons on September 22, 2024, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Chiefs enter the game as 3.5-point favorites, looking to improve to 3-0, while the Falcons are coming off a narrow road win and are 1-1 for the season. Kansas City vs Atlanta AI Prediction: Free NFL Betting Insights for Sep 22. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Atlanta Falcons NFL Preview

The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 3 with a 1-1 record and plenty to prove. After a sluggish start to the season, their comeback victory against the Eagles in Week 2 demonstrated resilience, but questions remain about their consistency. Kirk Cousins has been solid, throwing for 494 yards, but the real strength of the Falcons’ offense lies in their rushing attack. Bijan Robinson, the rookie standout, leads the team with 221 rushing yards, and he will be a central figure in their game plan against Kansas City’s defense, which ranks 29th in the league against the run. Atlanta’s game plan will focus on running the ball effectively to control the tempo and keep Mahomes off the field. The Falcons’ defense, while improved, will need to generate pressure on Mahomes without compromising their secondary, which struggled at times against Philadelphia’s passing attack. If the Falcons can limit big plays and force Kansas City to settle for field goals, they stand a good chance of pulling off the upset at home.

Kansas City vs. Atlanta Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each line. In fact, anytime the Chiefs and Falcons play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Sep rarely follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Remi's searched hard and crunched the numbers and found the best prop bet play for this game: Rashee Rice Over 70.5 Total Receiving Yards

Kansas City vs. Atlanta Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet between the Chiefs and Falcons and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most keyed in on the trending weight knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on Atlanta’s strength factors between a Chiefs team going up against a possibly improved Falcons team. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI Kansas City vs Atlanta picks, computer picks Chiefs vs Falcons, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 4 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 11/10 PHI@GB UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL Schedule.

Chiefs Betting Trends

The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and have covered in four of their last six games when favored by fewer than five points. However, the Chiefs’ struggles against the run have been apparent, which may impact their performance.

Falcons Betting Trends

The Falcons are 1-1 ATS this season, and they have been successful covering the spread in five of their last seven games as home underdogs. However, Atlanta’s inconsistency in their offense, led by Kirk Cousins, may pose a challenge against a strong Kansas City defense.

Chiefs vs. Falcons Matchup Trends

The Falcons have gone under the total points line in five of their last seven games, especially in matchups where they focus on running the ball. Meanwhile, Kansas City has struggled to stop the run, allowing a league-high 58% success rate on rushing plays, which may lead to a more ground-based game and could influence the point total.

Kansas City vs. Atlanta Game Info

Kansas City vs Atlanta starts on September 22, 2024 at 8:20 PM EST.

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Spread: Atlanta +3.5
Moneyline: Kansas City -185, Atlanta +154
Over/Under: 46.5

Kansas City: (2-0)  |  Atlanta: (1-1)

Remi's searched hard and crunched the numbers and found the best prop bet play for this game: Rashee Rice Over 70.5 Total Receiving Yards . Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The Falcons have gone under the total points line in five of their last seven games, especially in matchups where they focus on running the ball. Meanwhile, Kansas City has struggled to stop the run, allowing a league-high 58% success rate on rushing plays, which may lead to a more ground-based game and could influence the point total.

KC trend: The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and have covered in four of their last six games when favored by fewer than five points. However, the Chiefs’ struggles against the run have been apparent, which may impact their performance.

ATL trend: The Falcons are 1-1 ATS this season, and they have been successful covering the spread in five of their last seven games as home underdogs. However, Atlanta’s inconsistency in their offense, led by Kirk Cousins, may pose a challenge against a strong Kansas City defense.

See our latest NFL picks and odds pages for 2024 to compare prices before you bet.

Kansas City vs. Atlanta Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Kansas City vs Atlanta trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.

Kansas City vs Atlanta Opening Odds

KC Moneyline: -185
ATL Moneyline: +154
KC Spread: -3.5
ATL Spread: +3.5
Over/Under: 46.5

Kansas City vs Atlanta Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Nov 10, 2025 8:15PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers
11/10/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Packers
-105
-115
pk
pk
O 45 (-110)
U 45 (-110)
Nov 13, 2025 8:15PM EST
New York Jets
New England Patriots
11/13/25 8:15PM
Jets
Patriots
+550
-800
+11.5 (-110)
-11.5 (-110)
O 43.5 (-105)
U 43.5 (-115)
Nov 16, 2025 9:30AM EST
Washington Commanders
Miami Dolphins
11/16/25 9:30AM
Commanders
Dolphins
+125
-150
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
11/16/25 1PM
Panthers
Falcons
+165
-200
+3.5 (-105)
-3.5 (-115)
O 42.5 (-110)
U 42.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
11/16/25 1PM
Bears
Vikings
+140
-170
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars
11/16/25 1PM
Chargers
Jaguars
-150
+125
-3 (-105)
+3 (-115)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
11/16/25 1PM
Packers
Giants
-425
+330
-8 (-110)
+8 (-110)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
11/16/25 1PM
Bengals
Steelers
+200
-250
+5.5 (-115)
-5.5 (-105)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills
11/16/25 1PM
Buccaneers
Bills
+210
-260
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 1:00PM EST
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
11/16/25 1PM
Texans
Titans
-375
+300
-7 (-115)
+7 (-105)
O 39.5 (-110)
U 39.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 4:05PM EST
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
11/16/25 4:05PM
49ers
Cardinals
-145
+120
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
O 49 (-110)
U 49 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 4:05PM EST
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
11/16/25 4:05PM
Seahawks
Rams
+125
-150
+3 (-115)
-3 (-105)
O 48 (-110)
U 48 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 4:25PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
11/16/25 4:25PM
Chiefs
Broncos
-200
+165
-3.5 (-115)
+3.5 (-105)
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 4:25PM EST
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
11/16/25 4:25PM
Ravens
Browns
-450
+350
-8.5 (-105)
+8.5 (-115)
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
Nov 16, 2025 8:20PM EST
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
11/16/25 8:20PM
Lions
Eagles
+100
-120
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
O 49 (-110)
U 49 (-110)
Nov 17, 2025 8:15PM EST
Dallas Cowboys
Las Vegas Raiders
11/17/25 8:15PM
Cowboys
Raiders
-190
+160
-3.5 (-105)
+3.5 (-115)
O 50 (-110)
U 50 (-110)

NFL Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons on September 22, 2024 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NFL odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
LV@DEN RILEY MOSS OVER 4.5 TACKLE + ASST 54.8% 4 WIN
LV@DEN UNDER 43 53.4% 2 WIN
ARI@DAL BUDDA BAKER OVER 7.5 TACKLES + ASSTS 54.4% 4 WIN
ARI@DAL GEORGE PICKENS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS 56.6% 6 WIN
DEN@HOU WIL LUTZ OVER 1.5 MADE FIELD GOALS 54.2% 3 LOSS
SEA@WAS SEA -3 56.7% 6 WIN
IND@PIT IND -3 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@TEN LAC -9.5 56.2% 6 LOSS
CHI@CIN CHI -2.5 52.6% 2 WIN
SEA@WAS OVER 48 52.9% 2 WIN
SEA@WAS JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 20.5 PASS COMP 56.7% 6 LOSS
JAC@LV JAC -140 64.2% 7 WIN
NO@LAR LAR -14 55.0% 4 WIN
DEN@HOU HOU -1.5 54.2% 3 LOSS
CAR@GB GB -12.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
SF@NYG NYG +2.5 56.1% 5 LOSS
BAL@MIA TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 0.5 INT 55.3% 5 LOSS
TB@NO TB -3.5 52.3% 1 WIN
GB@PIT GB -2.5 52.3% 1 WIN
SF@HOU SF +2.5 56.0% 6 LOSS
NYG@PHI NYG +7.5 53.9% 3 LOSS
BUF@CAR CAR +7.5 54.2% 3 LOSS
DAL@DEN DAL +3.5 55.0% 4 LOSS
MIA@ATL MIA +7 54.3% 4 WIN
CLE@NE CLE +7 56.8% 6 LOSS
TB@NO BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 15.5 RUSH YDS 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIN@LAC JUSTIN HERBERT PASS ATT UNDER 35.5 55.5% 5 WIN
TB@DET TB +6.5 54.4% 4 LOSS
TB@DET RACHAAD WHITE UNDER 14.5 RUSH ATT 54.4% 4 WIN
NE@TEN NE -6.5 55.2% 5 WIN
CAR@NYJ CAR -110 57.4 4 WIN
PHI@MIN PHI -130 58.0% 6 WIN
GB@ARI ARI +7 54.8% 5 WIN
NO@CHI NO +4.5 57.4% 7 LOSS
WAS@DAL JAYDEN DANIELS 1H RUSH YDS OVER 22.5 56.1% 5 WIN
GB@ARI JORDAN LOVE 1Q PASS YDS OVER 54.5 56.6% 6 WIN
PIT@CIN JONNU SMITH RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
BUF@ATL BUF -3.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
CHI@WAS JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 56.6% 6 WIN
TEN@LV UNDER 42 54.8% 3 WIN
DET@KC DET +2.5 55.7% 7 LOSS
SEA@JAC SEA -112 55.7% 5 WIN
LAC@MIA LAC -3.5 54.0% 3 LOSS
ARI@IND IND -8.5 55.6% 5 LOSS
TEN@LV TEN +4.5 56.7% 6 LOSS
LAR@BAL LAR -7 56.2% 6 WIN
SF@TB SF +3.5 57.2% 7 LOSS
CLE@PIT JAYLEN WARREN UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 LOSS
DEN@NYJ BREECE HALL OVER 26.5 RECV YDS 55.0% 4 LOSS
KC@JAC UNDER 45.5 54.9% 3 LOSS
KC@JAC PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 23.5 PASS COMP 56.6% 6 LOSS