AI NFL Picks — Week 6 (2025)
Updated: 2025-09-13T08:00:00-06:00
Our Week 6 NFL computer picks combine play-by-play data, simulations, and market moves to surface ATS, moneyline, over/under, and player prop edges. Below you’ll find AI predictions with confidence ratings, plus best bets and buy-to numbers.
Pro tip: prices move. Refresh before kickoff to catch new edges and verify current odds.
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Live AI NFL Picks — Week 6
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number.
Below is our current AI NFL picks Week 6, NFL computer picks Week 6, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 9/15 | TB@HOU | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 9/15 | LAC@LV | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 9/15 | TB@HOU | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 2 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 9/15 | LAC@LV | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 9/15 | LAC@LV | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
INTEL
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Week 6 Storylines & Angles
Offense vs. Defense Mismatches
Quarterback & Scheme Trends
Travel, Rest & Situational Spots
Weather & Late-Breaking Injuries
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
NFL Week 6 Best Bets & Model Edges
Price sensitivity: we bet prices, not teams. If the market moves beyond our “buy-to” number, expected value drops.
Unit Plays (1–10): reflect signal quality, injury/variance risk, and line availability.
Staking: default stake scales with edge and volatility; avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes.
Closing-Line Value (CLV): consistently beating the close is a strong quality signal—even over small samples.
Line Movement Tracker — Week 6
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the NFL week 6 trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme travel distance seemingly never follow normal, predictable betting trends.
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sep 18, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
9/18/25 8:15PM
Dolphins
Bills
|
–
–
|
+540
-910
|
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-115)
|
O 49.5 (-112)
U 49.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9/21/25 1PM
Jets
Buccaneers
|
–
–
|
+275
-345
|
+7 (+100)
-7 (-120)
|
O 45.5 (-110)
U 45.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Las Vegas Raiders
Washington Commanders
9/21/25 1PM
Raiders
Commanders
|
–
–
|
+154
-185
|
+3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-110)
|
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
9/21/25 1PM
Falcons
Panthers
|
–
–
|
-220
+160
|
-4.5 (-113)
+4.5 (-112)
|
O 43.5 (-114)
U 43.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Green Bay Packers
Cleveland Browns
9/21/25 1PM
Packers
Browns
|
–
–
|
-480
+340
|
-8 (-110)
+8 (-115)
|
O 42.5 (-113)
U 42.5 (-113)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
9/21/25 1PM
Texans
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
-105
-115
|
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-102)
|
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
9/21/25 1PM
Steelers
Patriots
|
–
–
|
-120
-107
|
-1 (-112)
+1 (-114)
|
O 44.5 (-112)
U 44.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings
9/21/25 1PM
Bengals
Vikings
|
–
–
|
+125
-167
|
+3 (-110)
-3 (-114)
|
O 41.5 (-114)
U 41.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
9/21/25 1:01PM
Rams
Eagles
|
–
–
|
+155
-195
|
+3.5 (-114)
-3.5 (-112)
|
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
9/21/25 1:01PM
Colts
Titans
|
–
–
|
-186
+145
|
-3.5 (-108)
+3.5 (-118)
|
O 43.5 (-112)
U 43.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 4:05PM EDT
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
9/21/25 4:05PM
Broncos
Chargers
|
–
–
|
+120
-142
|
+2.5 (-110)
-2.5 (-110)
|
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 4:05PM EDT
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
9/21/25 4:05PM
Saints
Seahawks
|
–
–
|
+260
-360
|
+7.5 (-118)
-7.5 (-108)
|
O 41.5 (-113)
U 41.5 (-113)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 4:25PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
9/21/25 4:25PM
Cowboys
Bears
|
–
–
|
-103
-125
|
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (-112)
|
O 50 (-110)
U 50 (-115)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
9/21/25 4:26PM
Cardinals
49ers
|
–
–
|
+100
-127
|
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (-113)
|
O 43.5 (-113)
U 43.5 (-113)
|
|
|
Sep 21, 2025 8:21PM EDT
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants
9/21/25 8:21PM
Chiefs
Giants
|
–
–
|
-286
+215
|
-6 (-112)
+6 (-113)
|
O 44.5 (-109)
U 44.5 (-117)
|
|
|
Sep 22, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
9/22/25 8:15PM
Lions
Ravens
|
–
–
|
+205
-265
|
+6 (-115)
-6 (-109)
|
O 51.5 (-109)
U 51.5 (-117)
|
How Our AI Picks Work
Our NFL model blends play-by-play efficiency, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. We incorporate injury reports, rest/travel effects, and weather to adjust team strength and total expectations. Each game is simulated thousands of times to produce fair prices; the displayed Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current market.
Market-aware: incorporates liquidity windows and closing-line efficiency.
Context-adjusted: rest days, travel, altitude, tempo, and scheme tendencies.
Transparency: we show confidence, edges, and track CLV and ROI.
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every angle across NFL week 6 using recursive machine learning to impressive AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most keyed in on the growing weight human bettors tend to put on coaching factors between a visitors team going up against a possibly rested home teams. Trends look to say the true game analytics might reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
FAQ — Week 6 NFL AI Picks
Where can I see Week 6 NFL AI picks by bet type?
Right on this page. We publish Week 6 NFL computer picks organized by Against the Spread (ATS), Moneyline, Totals (Over/Under), and Player Props so you can jump straight to the markets you bet most.
What are the “best bets” for Week 6 according to the model?
“Best bets” are our highest-confidence Week 6 NFL AI picks based on fair price vs. current odds. Look for larger Model Edge % and higher confidence stars; those signal stronger value at widely available prices.
How are your Week 6 NFL computer picks generated?
We combine play-by-play data, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. The model produces a fair price for each side/total/prop, then compares it to live odds to surface Week 6 edges worth betting.
How often do you update Week 6 NFL AI picks?
Throughout the week and up to kickoff. As injuries, weather, and prices move, our projections refresh—so check back closer to game time for the most accurate read on Week 6 value.
Do your Week 6 picks include player props like anytime TD or yardage?
Yes. Our Week 6 NFL AI picks include props such as anytime touchdown, rushing/receiving yards, passing yards, attempts, and more when markets are liquid and pricing shows an edge.
Do you post same-game parlay (SGP) ideas for Week 6?
When correlations and prices justify it, we highlight SGP concepts tied to our Week 6 AI edges—think side/total anchored to complementary player props. We only list combos when expected value remains positive.
What do Model Edge % and units mean?
Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current line/price. Units (1–10) summarize signal quality, volatility, and line availability for Week 6 NFL AI picks.
What are “buy-to” numbers, and what if the line moves?
“Buy-to” is the furthest playable number before expected value disappears. If the market pushes past that level, the Week 6 pick may no longer qualify—wait for a better price or skip the bet.
Do you track closing-line value (CLV) and ROI for Week 6?
Yes. We grade results against widely available prices at publish time and monitor CLV to gauge process quality. You’ll also find recent record and ROI to keep Week 6 performance transparent.
How should I size bets on Week 6 NFL AI picks?
Scale stake size with edge and volatility. Larger Model Edge % and higher confidence typically merit slightly larger positions, but avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes within the same game.
Are teasers viable for Week 6?
Sometimes. Teasers can make sense around key numbers when totals and pricing conditions are favorable. If our Week 6 read flags teaser value, we’ll note the recommended legs and limits.
How do injuries, weather, and travel impact Week 6 NFL picks?
Materially. The model adjusts team strength, pace, and totals for late scratches, snap-count news, wind/rain/cold thresholds, altitude, rest, and travel. Those inputs can change edges close to kickoff.
Where can I compare Week 6 NFL odds to shop the best number?
Use your preferred odds screen or our odds links from this page. Shopping lines is essential—Model Edge % is calculated against available prices, and the best number often determines long-term ROI.
Can I get alerts when new Week 6 NFL AI picks post or when lines move to buy-to?
Yes. Enable notifications or subscribe for alerts so you catch new Week 6 AI picks, notable line moves, and updates to buy-to ranges before the market fully adjusts.
Past Weekly NFL AI Picks
| NFL |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KC | PHI -115 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| SF@NO | SF -3 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
| SEA@PIT | OVER 40 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@ARI | BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| DEN@IND | JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| ATL@MIN | BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@GB | WAS +3.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| WAS@GB | JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| MIN@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| TEN@DEN | DEN -8.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| SF@SEA | SF -115 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@JAC | TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| KC@LAC | JUSTIN HERBERT UNDER 0.5 INT | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
| DAL@PHI | GEORGE PICKENS LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 22.5 YDS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| KC@PHI | JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 16.5 RECV YDS | 53.90% | 5 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | DEVONTA SMITH LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 20.5 YDS | 54.40% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 68.3% PASS COMP | 55.00% | 8 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | JALEN HURTS LONGEST RUSH OVER 12.5 YDS | 55.60% | 8 | WIN |
| BUF@KC | DALTON KINCAID OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.10% | 8 | LOSS |
| WAS@PHI | DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 55.80% | 8 | WIN |
| BUF@KC | JAMES COOK ANYTIME TD | 53.00% | 5 | WIN |
| LAR@PHI | SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 128 RUSH + REC YDS | 53.20% | 5 | LOSS |
| BAL@BUF | LAMAR JACKSON OVER 54.5 RUSH YDS | 54.50% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@KC | C.J. STROUD RUSH YDS UNDER 14.5 | 53.10% | 5 | LOSS |
| WAS@DET | JAMESON WILLIAMS RUSH YDS OVER 1.5 | 53.30% | 5 | WIN |
| WAS@DET | JARED GOFF PASS COMP % UNDER 72.3 | 54.30% | 6 | WIN |
| MIN@LAR | COOPER KUPP ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN | 52.60% | 3 | LOSS |
| MIN@LAR | MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 21.5 PASS COMP | 54.10% | 6 | LOSS |
| WAS@TB | BRIAN ROBINSON JR OVER 1.5 REC TARGETS | 53.50% | 5 | WIN |
| WAS@TB | BAKER MAYFIELD UNDER 33.5 PASS ATT | 54.90% | 6 | WIN |
| GB@PHI | JALEN HURTS OVER 67.1 PASS COMP PERCENTAGE | 54.60% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAC@HOU | J.K. DOBBINS ANYTIME TD | 52.80% | 3 | LOSS |
| LAC@HOU | LAC -2.5 | 53.40% | 3 | LOSS |
| LAC@HOU | JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 19.5 RUSH YDS | 53.40% | 5 | LOSS |
| PIT@BAL | JUSTICE HILL OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS | 55.30% | 8 | WIN |
| MIN@DET | DET -3 | 53.90% | 3 | WIN |
| KC@DEN | DEN -11.5 | 53.80% | 3 | WIN |
| MIN@DET | T.J. HOCKENSON RECV YDS OVER 46.5 | 55.00% | 6 | LOSS |
| SEA@LAR | ZACH CHARBONNET RECV YDS OVER 18.5 | 53.90% | 8 | WIN |
| TB@NO | BAKER MAYFIELD PASS ATT OVER 31.5 | 53.80% | 8 | WIN |
| CIN@PIT | CIN -130 | 56.20% | 3 | WIN |
| CIN@PIT | RUSSELL WILSON PASS ATT OVER 31.5 | 54.60% | 6 | LOSS |
| CLE@BAL | ELIJAH MOORE RECV TARGETS OVER 5.5 | 54.30% | 6 | LOSS |
| CIN@PIT | PAT FREIERMUTH ANYTIME TD (UNITS ADJ FOR +400 ODDS) | 52.50% | 9 | WIN |
| DET@SF | DET -3.5 | 54.10% | 4 | WIN |
| DET@SF | JAHMYR GIBBS LONGEST RUSH OVER 16.5 YDS | 53.60% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@SF | BROCK PURDY UNDER 4.5 RUSH ATT | 53.80% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@SF | ISAAC GUERENDO UNDER 15.5 RUSH ATT | 55.30% | 8 | WIN |
| DAL@PHI | OVER 37.5 | 53.40% | 3 | WIN |
| LV@NO | LV -125 | 57.20% | 4 | WIN |