AI NFL Picks — Week 5 (2025)

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WEEK 5 NFL Odds
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Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal early stretches of the year, with playoff hopefuls looking to separate themselves from the pack and struggling teams desperate to right the ship. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are set for a marquee showdown against the Baltimore Ravens, a matchup that will put Patrick Mahomes’ improvisational brilliance against Lamar Jackson’s electric dual-threat ability in a clash that could preview January football. Elsewhere, the Detroit Lions continue their push to cement themselves as NFC contenders as Jared Goff leads one of the league’s most efficient offenses into a battle with the Green Bay Packers, who are eager to prove Jordan Love can thrive in a divisional rivalry that always carries weight. With stars like Tyreek Hill, Micah Parsons, and Christian McCaffrey all in action this week, bettors and fans alike will be keeping close watch on who rises to the moment in a slate packed with playoff-caliber intensity.
This week also offers intriguing storylines for bettors searching for value in the numbers. The New York Jets, with Aaron Rodgers fully back at the helm, will test their rejuvenated offense against the Miami Dolphins’ explosive passing attack, while the San Francisco 49ers look to remain unbeaten behind Brock Purdy’s efficient play and McCaffrey’s relentless production. On the defensive side, Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt and the Dallas Cowboys’ front seven continue to dominate the trenches, making their games potential under bets despite high-powered opponents. With divisional battles, star-studded quarterback duels, and defenses ready to swing spreads, Week 5 NFL action isn’t just about wins and losses—it’s about identifying which teams are revealing their true identity. For those tracking Week 5 NFL AI Picks, this slate offers the perfect mix of marquee matchups and betting angles to test both analytics and instinct.
Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season brings another loaded Sunday slate where divisional rivalries and star power collide to set the stage for a dramatic early-season shakeup. The Philadelphia Eagles will look to flex their muscle in the NFC East as Jalen Hurts continues to shine with his dual-threat ability, but Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are determined to prove they still control the division in what could be one of the most-watched games of the year. Meanwhile, in the AFC, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals aim to reassert themselves against the Denver Broncos, a matchup that pits one of the NFL’s most efficient passing games against a defense that has shown flashes of dominance but still seeks consistency. Add in the high-powered Miami Dolphins facing off against a rejuvenated New York Jets squad led by Aaron Rodgers, and you have a week brimming with playoff implications far earlier than the standings may suggest.
Beyond the marquee clashes, Week 4 also provides critical tests for teams looking to solidify their identity. The Green Bay Packers and Jordan Love will be put to the test against the bruising Detroit Lions defense, while the San Francisco 49ers hope Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey can maintain their offensive balance against a hungry divisional opponent. Bettors eyeing Week 2025 2025-09-28T08:00:00-06:00 AI Picks should be especially attentive to the situational spots—such as the Steelers’ relentless pass rush against a struggling offensive line, or how Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars handle a tricky road test. With stars battling across the league and underdogs eager to make a statement, this week promises a perfect mix of drama, intensity, and betting intrigue.
Rivalries Night Football ‼️ pic.twitter.com/RTRKLo2EEk
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 29, 2025
Live AI NFL Picks — Week 5
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL schedule.
Below is our current AI NFL picks Week 5, NFL computer picks Week 5, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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NFL | 10/6 | KC@JAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 6 |
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NFL | 10/6 | KC@JAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 3 |
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NFL | 10/6 | KC@JAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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NFL | 10/6 | KC@JAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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Week 5 Storylines & Angles
Offense vs. Defense Mismatches
When breaking down Week 5 NFL AI Picks through an analytics lens, the biggest mismatches surface in EPA/play and success rate, where efficient offenses meet defenses struggling to get stops. The Miami Dolphins remain near the top of the league in explosive plays per game, with Tyreek Hill’s vertical threat consistently stretching secondaries, but this week they face a Tennessee Titans defense that has been bottom five in red-zone TD rate allowed. That combination could tilt the scoreboard heavily in Miami’s favor if Tua Tagovailoa has time to throw. Similarly, the Detroit Lions’ offensive line—ranked top three in pass-block win rate—faces a Las Vegas Raiders pass rush that has been almost entirely Maxx Crosby or bust. Jared Goff’s ability to thrive from a clean pocket should give Detroit’s offense an efficiency edge measured directly in EPA and success rate.
Tempo and situational execution are also key angles. The Dallas Cowboys have pushed pace in recent weeks, running one of the faster offenses in neutral situations, while the Cleveland Browns have slogged through one of the slowest tempos, preferring to shorten games with Nick Chubb and their defense. That contrast will be crucial in handicapping totals and drive volume. Meanwhile, in a potential shootout spot, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals’ red-zone efficiency (sixth in the league in TD conversion rate) will be tested against a Ravens defense that ranks second in red-zone stops. For bettors focusing on mismatches, this week provides clear edges: elite passing games with protection and pace advantages against defenses that bend too often in high-leverage situations.
Quarterback & Scheme Trends
Quarterback form and scheme wrinkles are defining storylines heading into Week 5 NFL AI Picks, and nowhere is that clearer than in how signal-callers handle pressure and disguised blitzes. C.J. Stroud has been near-elite when kept clean, ranking top five in adjusted EPA/play, but his production craters when blitzed, a weakness that defenses like the Jets could exploit with their aggressive front. Contrast that with Patrick Mahomes, who continues to feast against the blitz, leveraging Andy Reid’s motion-heavy offense to create mismatches and free outlets. Mahomes’ passer rating against extra rushers is nearly 30 points higher than league average, making it risky for defenses to gamble with heat.
Motion and under-center tendencies are also worth watching in Week 5. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers lead the league in pre-snap motion rate, using it to manufacture mismatches for Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, while Brock Purdy thrives in structured reads out of play-action. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have shifted more under-center snaps for Dak Prescott, leaning into Tony Pollard’s efficiency on wide-zone runs while setting up deep shots off bootlegs. These situational play-calling shifts—like Sean McVay’s Rams going heavy play-action on early downs—continue to separate the sharp offenses from those stuck in neutral. Bettors should pay close attention to which quarterbacks are thriving in specific schematic environments, as these edges often swing spreads and totals more than raw talent alone.
Travel, Rest & Situational Spots
Situational angles loom large in Week 5 NFL AI Picks, as travel quirks and rest disparities set the stage for potential upsets. The 49ers face the challenge of a short turnaround after a bruising divisional game, traveling cross-country for an early East Coast kickoff against a rested AFC opponent. Historically, San Francisco has been less efficient in these “body-clock” spots, where a 1 p.m. ET start feels like 10 a.m. back home. Similarly, the Broncos hosting at altitude in Denver creates its own wrinkle, with visiting teams often struggling to maintain pace in the second half, particularly squads coming off long travel weeks. These factors can compound in ways the betting market occasionally overlooks, offering sharp bettors hidden value.
Look-ahead and let-down angles also play a key role this week. The Chiefs may be tempted to peek past a non-conference opponent with a marquee primetime showdown looming in Week 6, while the Eagles, fresh off an emotional rivalry win over the Cowboys, risk a flat performance in a perceived “easier” matchup. Rivalries inside divisions always amplify intensity, and matchups like Steelers-Ravens or Packers-Bears rarely follow the script, often decided by situational grit as much as talent. Layer in these rest and travel dynamics, and Week 5 sets up as a minefield of tricky spots where bettors should weigh psychology and schedule as heavily as X’s and O’s.
Weather & Late-Breaking Injuries
Weather always finds its way into the betting calculus, and Week 5 NFL AI Picks is no exception. Historically, sustained winds above 15 mph tend to clip deep passing efficiency and bring unders into sharper focus, while rain increases fumble probability and snow usually forces a more run-heavy script. Several games this week carry those red flags, including a projected windy forecast in Buffalo that could limit Josh Allen’s downfield shots and shift the Bills toward shorter, possession-based passing. Meanwhile, a rain threat in Chicago looms over the Bears’ matchup, where sloppy field conditions could neutralize explosive plays and bring totals down. Bettors need to weigh these weather thresholds closely, as they not only shape scoring environments but also player props tied to air yards and completion depth.
Injury reports are just as influential as the skies, with key names trending questionable or limited ahead of kickoff. Christian McCaffrey’s practice reps will be closely monitored, as any snap reduction alters the 49ers’ offensive balance, while the Dolphins are managing Tyreek Hill through a minor ailment that could affect his usage in a game where Miami may lean more on Jaylen Waddle. On defense, Micah Parsons has been listed as limited for Dallas, and his availability dramatically swings the Cowboys’ pass-rush ceiling. Similarly, the Ravens are tracking the status of tight end Mark Andrews, whose absence or pitch count would reshape Baltimore’s red-zone schemes. Between weather constraints and usage volatility, Week 5 presents a convergence of variables that savvy bettors must track up until kickoff.
Check up to the minute weather forecasts here.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
NFL Week 5 Best Bets & AI Prop Picks
Week 5 NFL Best Bet – Pro Tips
Note Price sensitivity: We crunch numbers, not teams. If the market moves beyond our
buy-to number, expected value decays and the edge can disappear. Respect the price.
Unit sizing (1–10): Our unit scale reflects model signal strength, injury/variance risk,
and current line availability. Higher units = stronger conviction, not permission to over-expose.
Staking & correlation: Default stake scales with edge and volatility. Avoid stacking too many
correlated outcomes (same game, same player ladder) unless you deliberately size down.
Closing-Line Value (CLV): Beating the close consistently is a quality signal—even across small samples.
Track your entry vs. close; it’s the most reliable feedback loop for long-term profitability.
Week 5 Line Movement
Every pick includes a playable to line or price (e.g., -2.5, Over 44.5, +115). If you can’t get that number or better, consider passing or reducing stake. Lines move—check back for live updates in our Live AI Picks stream and see quick notes in Odds & Line Movement.
Note – all of our data is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation as to whether or how to wager.
Four takeaways from Foxboro: Bryce Young on Tetairoa McMillan connection, and morehttps://t.co/TTeKN61YRm
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) September 28, 2025
Line Movement Tracker — Week 5
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 9, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Giants
|
–
–
|
-405
+320
|
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
|
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 8:31AM EDT
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
10/12/25 8:31AM
Broncos
Jets
|
–
–
|
-390
+310
|
-7 (-118)
+7 (-104)
|
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/12/25 1PM
Seahawks
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
-110
-110
|
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-102)
|
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Browns
Steelers
|
–
–
|
+198
-240
|
+5.5 (-115)
-5.5 (-105)
|
O 38.5 (-108)
U 38.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
10/12/25 1:01PM
Chargers
Dolphins
|
–
–
|
-240
+198
|
-4.5 (-118)
+4.5 (-104)
|
O 43.5 (-120)
U 43.5 (-102)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
10/12/25 1:01PM
Rams
Ravens
|
–
–
|
-375
+300
|
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
|
O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Panthers
|
–
–
|
-198
+166
|
-3.5 (-108)
+3.5 (-112)
|
O 49.5 (-108)
U 49.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cardinals
Colts
|
–
–
|
+230
-290
|
+6.5 (-115)
-6.5 (-105)
|
O 47.5 (-105)
U 47.5 (-115)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
10/12/25 4:06PM
Titans
Raiders
|
–
–
|
+190
-230
|
+5.5 (-114)
-5.5 (-106)
|
O 41.5 (-108)
U 41.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:25PM EDT
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
10/12/25 4:25PM
Patriots
Saints
|
–
–
|
-210
+176
|
-3.5 (-115)
+3.5 (-105)
|
O 45.5 (-115)
U 45.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
10/12/25 4:26PM
Bengals
Packers
|
–
–
|
+750
-1200
|
+14.5 (-112)
-14.5 (-108)
|
O 43.5 (-115)
U 43.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10/12/25 4:26PM
49ers
Buccaneers
|
–
–
|
+132
-156
|
+3 (-115)
-3 (-105)
|
O 47.5 (-108)
U 47.5 (-112)
|
|
Oct 12, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
10/12/25 8:20PM
Lions
Chiefs
|
–
–
|
+100
-121
|
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-102)
|
O 50.5 (-112)
U 50.5 (-109)
|
|
Oct 13, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
10/13/25 7:15PM
Bills
Falcons
|
–
–
|
-200
+168
|
-3.5 (-115)
+3.5 (-105)
|
O 48.5 (-115)
U 48.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 13, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Washington Commanders
10/13/25 8:16PM
Bears
Commanders
|
–
–
|
+180
-215
|
+4.5 (-115)
-4.5 (-105)
|
O 49.5 (-120)
U 49.5 (-102)
|
How Our AI Picks Work
Our NFL model blends play-by-play efficiency, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. We incorporate injury reports, rest/travel effects, and weather to adjust team strength and total expectations. Each game is simulated thousands of times to produce fair prices; the displayed Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current market.
Market-aware: incorporates liquidity windows and closing-line efficiency.
Context-adjusted: rest days, travel, altitude, tempo, and scheme tendencies.
Transparency: we show confidence, edges, and track CLV and ROI.

Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet across NFL week 5 using recursive machine learning to kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of factor human bettors tend to put on player performance factors between a visitors team going up against a possibly strong home teams. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
FAQ — Week 5 NFL
Where can I see Week 5 NFL AI picks by bet type?
Right on this page. We publish Week 5 NFL computer picks organized by Against the Spread (ATS), Moneyline, Totals (Over/Under), and Player Props so you can jump straight to the markets you bet most.
What are the “best bets” for Week 5 according to the model?
“Best bets” are our highest-confidence Week 5 NFL AI picks based on fair price vs. current odds. Look for larger Model Edge % and higher confidence stars; those signal stronger value at widely available prices.
How are your Week 5 NFL computer picks generated?
We combine play-by-play data, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. The model produces a fair price for each side/total/prop, then compares it to live odds to surface Week 5 edges worth betting.
How often do you update Week 5 NFL AI picks?
Throughout the week and up to kickoff. As injuries, weather, and prices move, our projections refresh—so check back closer to game time for the most accurate read on Week 5 value.
Do your Week 5 picks include player props like anytime TD or yardage?
Yes. Our Week 5 NFL AI picks include props such as anytime touchdown, rushing/receiving yards, passing yards, attempts, and more when markets are liquid and pricing shows an edge.
Do you post same-game parlay (SGP) ideas for Week 5?
When correlations and prices justify it, we highlight SGP concepts tied to our Week 5 AI edges—think side/total anchored to complementary player props. We only list combos when expected value remains positive.
What do Model Edge % and units mean?
Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current line/price. Units (1–10) summarize signal quality, volatility, and line availability for Week 5 NFL AI picks.
What are “buy-to” numbers, and what if the line moves?
“Buy-to” is the furthest playable number before expected value disappears. If the market pushes past that level, the Week 5 pick may no longer qualify—wait for a better price or skip the bet.
Do you track closing-line value (CLV) and ROI for Week 5?
Yes. We grade results against widely available prices at publish time and monitor CLV to gauge process quality. You’ll also find recent record and ROI to keep Week 5 performance transparent.
How should I size bets on Week 5 NFL AI picks?
Scale stake size with edge and volatility. Larger Model Edge % and higher confidence typically merit slightly larger positions, but avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes within the same game.
Are teasers viable for Week 5?
Sometimes. Teasers can make sense around key numbers when totals and pricing conditions are favorable. If our Week 5 read flags teaser value, we’ll note the recommended legs and limits.
How do injuries, weather, and travel impact Week 5 NFL picks?
Materially. The model adjusts team strength, pace, and totals for late scratches, snap-count news, wind/rain/cold thresholds, altitude, rest, and travel. Those inputs can change edges close to kickoff.
Where can I compare Week 5 NFL odds to shop the best number?
Use your preferred odds screen or our odds links from this page. Shopping lines is essential—Model Edge % is calculated against available prices, and the best number often determines long-term ROI.
Can I get alerts when new Week 5 NFL AI picks post or when lines move to buy-to?
Yes. Enable notifications or subscribe for alerts so you catch new Week 5 AI picks, notable line moves, and updates to buy-to ranges before the market fully adjusts.
Past NFL AI Picks
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
HOU@BAL | HOU -125 | 58.5% | 7 | WIN |
DET@CIN | DET -10 | 55.6% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@NYJ | NYJ +1.5 | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
TB@SEA | TB +3.5 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TEN@ARI | ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
DEN@PHI | DEN +4.5 | 57.5% | 7 | WIN |
MIA@CAR | TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
LV@IND | ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
SF@LAR | DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | NYJ +3 | 53.8 | 3 | LOSS |
CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
GB@CLE | GB -7 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
ARI@SF | ARI +3 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
KC@NYG | PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
GB@CLE | JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
MIA@BUF | TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
LAC@LV | LAC -3 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
TB@HOU | BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
CHI@DET | DET -6.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
DEN@IND | DEN -118 | 60.1% | 10 | LOSS |
PHI@KC | PHI -115 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
SF@NO | SF -3 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
SEA@PIT | OVER 40 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
CAR@ARI | BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
DEN@IND | JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
ATL@MIN | BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@GB | WAS +3.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
WAS@GB | JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIN@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
TEN@DEN | DEN -8.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
SF@SEA | SF -115 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
SF@SEA | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
CAR@JAC | TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |