AI NFL Picks — Week 4 (2025)

Updated: 2025-09-21T08:00:00-06:00 By Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props Our Week 4 NFL computer picks combine play-by-play data, simulations, and market moves to surface ATS, moneyline, over/under, and player prop edges. Below you’ll find AI predictions with confidence ratings, plus best bets and buy-to numbers. Pro tip: prices move. Refresh before kickoff to catch new edges and verify current odds.
AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

Best Week 4 
NFL AI Player Prop

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this week: P. Mahomes over 0.5 Passing Yards

WEEK 4 NFL Computer Picks (ATS, ML, O/U)

WEEK 4 NFL Odds

WEEK 4 NFL ODDS COMPARISON

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Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be a pivotal turning point, with contenders beginning to separate from pretenders and star players making headlines for both breakout performances and clutch plays. Fans will be watching closely as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to face the rising Jacksonville Jaguars, where Trevor Lawrence has been dazzling with his efficiency and poise. Meanwhile, the NFC spotlight will shine on the Dallas Cowboys, who look to stay undefeated behind Micah Parsons’ relentless pass rush when they square off against a surging Philadelphia Eagles squad powered by Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat dominance. With playoff implications already simmering, every snap this week carries extra weight.

AI-driven insights for Week 4 NFL picks are pointing to fascinating matchups beyond the obvious headliners. The defending champion Detroit Lions, behind Amon-Ra St. Brown’s playmaking, will look to prove they remain the class of the NFC North as they battle the Minnesota Vikings, who are hoping for another explosive outing from Justin Jefferson. In the AFC, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are set for a high-stakes clash with Lamar Jackson’s Ravens, a rivalry that has consistently delivered fireworks in recent seasons. From marquee quarterback duels to defensive stars rewriting game scripts, Week 4 is filled with storylines that make it a must-watch slate—and the perfect testing ground for sharp AI picks.

Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off on September 21 with several heavyweight clashes that could reshape the early standings and set the tone for the fall. The Buffalo Bills, riding high behind Josh Allen’s rocket arm and improved chemistry with rookie wideout Malachi Corley, host the high-powered Miami Dolphins in an AFC East battle that promises fireworks. Over in the NFC, Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears look to prove their offense is for real when they travel to face Jordan Love’s Green Bay Packers in another installment of football’s oldest rivalry, with both young quarterbacks aiming to seize divisional control.

AI projections for Week 3 NFL picks are highlighting some intriguing value plays across the schedule. The San Francisco 49ers, led by Christian McCaffrey’s dual-threat dominance, face a feisty Arizona Cardinals defense that has been better than advertised, while the Kansas City Chiefs square off against the upstart Houston Texans, where C.J. Stroud continues to prove he belongs in the MVP conversation. With divisional rivalries, breakout stars, and playoff-caliber showdowns packed into this slate, Week 3 offers a perfect showcase for data-driven AI analysis to cut through the hype and spotlight the matchups most likely to deliver.

Live AI NFL Picks — Week 4

These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL schedule.

Below is our current AI NFL picks Week 4, NFL computer picks Week 4, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
NFL 10/6 KC@JAC UNLOCK THIS PICK 6 VAULT v3 Locked VAULT v3
NFL 10/6 KC@JAC UNLOCK THIS PICK 3 EXECUTIVE Locked EXECUTIVE
NFL 10/6 KC@JAC UNLOCK THIS PICK 0 INTEL Locked INTEL
NFL 10/6 KC@JAC UNLOCK THIS PICK 1 INTEL Locked INTEL

Week 4 Storylines & Angles

Offense vs. Defense Mismatches

Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season offers several clear mismatches when digging into advanced metrics like EPA/play, success rate, and red-zone touchdown efficiency. The Kansas City Chiefs continue to lead the league in offensive EPA/play behind Patrick Mahomes’ pinpoint passing, but they’ll be tested by a Miami Dolphins defense ranking top five in success rate allowed thanks to Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland shutting down explosive plays. On the other side of the spectrum, the New England Patriots’ red-zone woes remain glaring, converting just 40% of trips into touchdowns, and that inefficiency could be costly against a Baltimore Ravens team that thrives in short fields with Lamar Jackson’s legs and Zay Flowers’ quick-strike ability.

Pass-rush vs. protection is also shaping Week 4 storylines, as the Dallas Cowboys’ front seven, paced by Micah Parsons’ league-best pressure rate, faces an Atlanta Falcons offensive line that has allowed sacks on over 9% of dropbacks—setting up a nightmare mismatch for Kirk Cousins. Pace and explosiveness could define the San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams matchup, with Kyle Shanahan’s unit producing explosive plays on 13% of snaps—well above league average—while Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua counter with a quick-tempo attack designed to neutralize San Francisco’s suffocating pass rush. These advanced numbers highlight where leverage exists, and for bettors eyeing Week 4 NFL AI picks, identifying which teams can sustain drives, finish in the red zone, and handle trench mismatches will be the difference between winning and losing tickets.

Quarterback & Scheme Trends

Quarterback form and scheme wrinkles are front and center heading into Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season, with several signal-callers separating themselves through sharp execution under pressure. Patrick Mahomes continues to dominate blitz splits, posting a passer rating nearly 40 points higher when defenses send extra rushers, which makes his Week 4 showdown with Miami’s aggressive pressure packages must-watch. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has been thriving under center with Chicago, as the Bears’ increased use of motion and play-action has simplified reads and created explosive opportunities, though he’ll be tested by a Packers defense that disguises coverage as well as any unit in the league.

Situational play-calling also offers valuable insight for Week 4 NFL AI picks. The San Francisco 49ers have leaned heavily on motion, leading the league in pre-snap movement to free Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, while Brock Purdy has excelled at staying ahead of the sticks with a top-five third-down success rate. On the flip side, the New York Jets continue to struggle in obvious passing downs, with Aaron Rodgers showing a steep efficiency drop when pressured compared to clean pockets, and their reluctance to use motion has kept defenses comfortable. These trends underscore which quarterbacks and schemes are built to adapt and which still lag behind, critical factors in identifying Week 4 mismatches.

Travel, Rest & Situational Spots

Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season delivers plenty of situational wrinkles that bettors need to keep on their radar, starting with travel and rest dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers face a classic body-clock challenge with an early East Coast kickoff against the Washington Commanders, a spot where West Coast teams historically struggle to match energy at 1 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos enjoy their altitude advantage at Mile High against the Indianapolis Colts, whose defense could wear down in the thin air after a cross-country trip on a short turnaround. These spots often tilt efficiency metrics, even when raw talent suggests a more even matchup.

Look-ahead and let-down angles also loom large in Week 4. The Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off a statement win against Dallas, risk a flat performance in a divisional trap game against the New York Giants, who always seem to elevate their play in rivalry matchups. Similarly, the Kansas City Chiefs could be guilty of peeking ahead to a primetime Week 5 showdown, making their clash with a scrappy Houston Texans squad a potential let-down spot. Layer in conference and divisional rivalries—like the AFC North clash between the Ravens and Bengals, where physicality and familiarity often outweigh analytics—and it’s clear that travel, rest, and situational edges could prove just as decisive as raw talent in shaping Week 4 NFL AI picks.

Weather & Late-Breaking Injuries

Weather and player availability always loom large when projecting outcomes, and Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season brings several factors bettors should weigh. Historically, steady rain and winds above 15 mph have cut deep passing efficiency by nearly a third, while gusts over 20 mph often drive totals down several points, making outdoor matchups in Chicago, Buffalo, and Cleveland worth monitoring as forecasts shift. Snow rarely shows up this early, but even light accumulation has been proven to tilt game plans toward the run, compressing totals and limiting explosive plays—key context for AFC North grinders or NFC North divisional battles where weather often becomes the “twelfth man.”

Injury reports add another layer of volatility to Week 4 NFL AI picks. Philadelphia lists A.J. Brown as questionable with a hamstring tweak, which could shift more targets to DeVonta Smith if his snaps are limited. The Dolphins are carefully managing Tyreek Hill after a midweek practice setback, and any cap on his usage would alter Miami’s vertical game plan. Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to rotate Christian McCaffrey more heavily if his lingering shoulder issue persists, giving Elijah Mitchell a potential uptick in touches. Monitoring these snap and usage adjustments alongside weather developments is critical for bettors, as both can move lines quickly and create hidden edges heading into Sunday.

Check up to the minute weather forecasts here

AI NFL Picks — Week 4 (2025). Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

NFL Week 4 Best Bets & AI Prop Picks

Below are our Week 4 NFL best bets generated by our Leans AI algorithm (“Remi”). These AI NFL picks combine multi-season priors, injury/usage inputs, and market signals to surface high-EV wagers across against the spread, moneyline, totals, and player props. Each pick includes a unit rating and a “playable to” price so you can adjust if the odds move.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this week: P. Mahomes over 0.5 Passing Yards

Week 4 NFL Best Bet – Pro Tips

Note Price sensitivity: We crunch numbers, not teams. If the market moves beyond our
buy-to number, expected value decays and the edge can disappear. Respect the price.

Unit sizing (1–10): Our unit scale reflects model signal strength, injury/variance risk,
and current line availability. Higher units = stronger conviction, not permission to over-expose.

Staking & correlation: Default stake scales with edge and volatility. Avoid stacking too many
correlated outcomes (same game, same player ladder) unless you deliberately size down.

Closing-Line Value (CLV): Beating the close consistently is a quality signal—even across small samples.
Track your entry vs. close; it’s the most reliable feedback loop for long-term profitability.

Week 4 Line Movement

Every pick includes a playable to line or price (e.g., -2.5, Over 44.5, +115). If you can’t get that number or better, consider passing or reducing stake. Lines move—check back for live updates in our Live AI Picks stream and see quick notes in Odds & Line Movement.

Note – all of our data is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation as to whether or how to wager. 

Line Movement Tracker — Week 4

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each team. In fact, anytime the NFL week 4 trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 9, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Giants
-400
+310
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
O 41 (-118)
U 41 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 8:31AM EDT
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
10/12/25 8:31AM
Broncos
Jets
-375
+300
-7.5 (-105)
+7.5 (-115)
O 43.5 (-115)
U 43.5 (-105)
Oct 12, 2025 1:00PM EDT
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/12/25 1PM
Seahawks
Jaguars
-110
-110
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-102)
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Browns
Steelers
+195
-235
+5 (-105)
-5 (-115)
O 38.5 (-110)
U 38.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
10/12/25 1:01PM
Chargers
Dolphins
-220
+180
-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
10/12/25 1:01PM
Rams
Ravens
-425
+325
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
O 45 (-110)
U 45 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Panthers
-190
+155
-3.5 (-105)
+3.5 (-115)
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cardinals
Colts
+240
-300
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
10/12/25 4:06PM
Titans
Raiders
+200
-250
+5 (-110)
-5 (-110)
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 4:25PM EDT
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
10/12/25 4:25PM
Patriots
Saints
-190
+155
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
O 46 (-110)
U 46 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
10/12/25 4:26PM
Bengals
Packers
+750
-1200
+14.5 (-115)
-14.5 (-105)
O 44 (-110)
U 44 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10/12/25 4:26PM
49ers
Buccaneers
+140
-165
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
Oct 12, 2025 8:20PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
10/12/25 8:20PM
Lions
Chiefs
+100
-120
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
O 50.5 (-115)
U 50.5 (-105)
Oct 13, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
10/13/25 7:15PM
Bills
Falcons
-200
+165
-4 (-105)
+4 (-115)
O 48.5 (-110)
U 48.5 (-110)
Oct 13, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Washington Commanders
10/13/25 8:16PM
Bears
Commanders
+185
-225
+4.5 (-110)
-4.5 (-110)
O 50 (-110)
U 50 (-110)

How Our AI Picks Work

Our NFL model blends play-by-play efficiency, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. We incorporate injury reports, rest/travel effects, and weather to adjust team strength and total expectations. Each game is simulated thousands of times to produce fair prices; the displayed Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current market.

  • Market-aware: incorporates liquidity windows and closing-line efficiency.

  • Context-adjusted: rest days, travel, altitude, tempo, and scheme tendencies.

  • Transparency: we show confidence, edges, and track CLV and ROI.

Remi Robot Icon

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every facet across NFL week 4 using recursive machine learning to cutting-edge AI to boil down the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on player performance factors between a visitors team going up against a possibly rested home teams. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.

FAQ — Week 4 NFL

Right on this page. We publish Week 4 NFL computer picks organized by Against the Spread (ATS), Moneyline, Totals (Over/Under), and Player Props so you can jump straight to the markets you bet most.

“Best bets” are our highest-confidence Week 4 NFL AI picks based on fair price vs. current odds. Look for larger Model Edge % and higher confidence stars; those signal stronger value at widely available prices.

We combine play-by-play data, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. The model produces a fair price for each side/total/prop, then compares it to live odds to surface Week 4 edges worth betting.

Throughout the week and up to kickoff. As injuries, weather, and prices move, our projections refresh—so check back closer to game time for the most accurate read on Week 4 value.

Yes. Our Week 4 NFL AI picks include props such as anytime touchdown, rushing/receiving yards, passing yards, attempts, and more when markets are liquid and pricing shows an edge.

When correlations and prices justify it, we highlight SGP concepts tied to our Week 4 AI edges—think side/total anchored to complementary player props. We only list combos when expected value remains positive.

Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current line/price. Units (1–10) summarize signal quality, volatility, and line availability for Week 4 NFL AI picks.

“Buy-to” is the furthest playable number before expected value disappears. If the market pushes past that level, the Week 4 pick may no longer qualify—wait for a better price or skip the bet.

Yes. We grade results against widely available prices at publish time and monitor CLV to gauge process quality. You’ll also find recent record and ROI to keep Week 4 performance transparent.

Scale stake size with edge and volatility. Larger Model Edge % and higher confidence typically merit slightly larger positions, but avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes within the same game.

Sometimes. Teasers can make sense around key numbers when totals and pricing conditions are favorable. If our Week 4 read flags teaser value, we’ll note the recommended legs and limits.

Materially. The model adjusts team strength, pace, and totals for late scratches, snap-count news, wind/rain/cold thresholds, altitude, rest, and travel. Those inputs can change edges close to kickoff.

Use your preferred odds screen or our odds links from this page. Shopping lines is essential—Model Edge % is calculated against available prices, and the best number often determines long-term ROI.

Yes. Enable notifications or subscribe for alerts so you catch new Week 4 AI picks, notable line moves, and updates to buy-to ranges before the market fully adjusts.

Past NFL AI Picks

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
HOU@BAL HOU -125 58.5% 7 WIN
DET@CIN DET -10 55.6% 5 WIN
DAL@NYJ NYJ +1.5 53.7% 3 LOSS
TB@SEA TB +3.5 54.9% 4 WIN
TEN@ARI ARI -7 (BUY 0.5) 54.9% 4 LOSS
DEN@PHI DEN +4.5 57.5% 7 WIN
MIA@CAR TETAIROA MCMILLAN OVER 58.5 RECV YDS 54.5% 4 WIN
LV@IND ASHTON JEANTY UNDER 67.5 RUSH YDS 54.4% 4 WIN
SF@LAR DEMARCUS ROBINSON OVER 29.5 RECV YDS 55.7% 5 WIN
NYJ@MIA NYJ +3 53.8 3 LOSS
CIN@DEN DEN -7.5 54.8 4 WIN
NYJ@MIA OVER 44 52.9% 2 WIN
CIN@DEN UNDER 44.5 53.7% 3 WIN
NYJ@MIA GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS 53.7% 3 WIN
CIN@DEN TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS 55.5% 5 LOSS
WAS@ATL ATL -2.5 54.3 4 WIN
BAL@KC BAL -2.5 56.3% 6 LOSS
TEN@HOU TEN +7.5 57.9% 7 LOSS
LAC@NYG LAC -6 57.3% 7 LOSS
NO@BUF UNDER 48.5 55.1% 3 LOSS
GB@DAL JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS 55.5% 5 LOSS
CAR@NE DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 LOSS
SEA@ARI SEA -125 57.7% 6 WIN
SEA@ARI KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT 56.6% 6 WIN
DET@BAL JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS 55.8% 5 WIN
DAL@CHI DAL -120 58.7% 6 LOSS
PIT@NE PIT -116 60.1% 6 WIN
ATL@CAR ATL -4.5 55.4% 5 LOSS
LV@WAS LV +3 54.3% 4 LOSS
GB@CLE GB -7 54.3% 4 LOSS
ARI@SF ARI +3 57.7% 6 WIN
KC@NYG PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
GB@CLE JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT 56.6% 6 LOSS
MIA@BUF TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS 56.8% 6 LOSS
LAC@LV LAC -3 54.9% 4 WIN
TB@HOU BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS 54.4% 4 WIN
CHI@DET DET -6.5 54.3% 4 WIN
DEN@IND DEN -118 60.1% 10 LOSS
PHI@KC PHI -115 56.7% 6 WIN
SF@NO SF -3 58.8% 8 WIN
SEA@PIT OVER 40 54.9% 4 WIN
CAR@ARI BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
DEN@IND JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 54.7% 4 WIN
ATL@MIN BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 53.4% 3 WIN
WAS@GB WAS +3.5 56.5% 6 LOSS
WAS@GB JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS 54.7% 4 WIN
MIN@CHI CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS 53.4% 3 LOSS
TEN@DEN DEN -8.5 55.3% 5 LOSS
SF@SEA SF -115 54.6% 4 WIN
SF@SEA KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS 54.6% 4 WIN
CAR@JAC TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT 56.1% 6 LOSS