AI NFL Picks — Week 18 (2025)
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WEEK 18 NFL Computer Picks (ATS, ML, O/U)
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Live AI NFL Picks — Week 18
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL schedule.
Below is our current AI NFL picks Week 18, NFL computer picks Week 18, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 10/5 | HOU@BAL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 9 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 10/5 | DEN@PHI | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 7 |
VAULT v3
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| NFL | 10/5 | HOU@BAL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 7 |
VAULT v2
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| NFL | 10/5 | DET@CIN | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 5 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 10/5 | LV@IND | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 10/5 | MIA@CAR | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 10/5 | TEN@ARI | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 10/5 | TB@SEA | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 10/5 | NE@BUF | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 3 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 10/5 | DAL@NYJ | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 3 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NFL | 10/5 | NE@BUF | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 10/5 | NE@BUF | GET FREE PICK NOW | 1 | – | |
| NFL | 10/5 | WAS@LAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 10/5 | WAS@LAC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
INTEL
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| NFL | 10/5 | LV@IND | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
INTEL
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Week 18 Storylines & Angles
Offense vs. Defense Mismatches
Quarterback & Scheme Trends
Travel, Rest & Situational Spots
Weather & Late-Breaking Injuries
Check up to the minute weather forecasts here.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
NFL Week 18 Best Bets & AI Prop Picks
Week 18 NFL Best Bet – Pro Tips
Note Price sensitivity: We crunch numbers, not teams. If the market moves beyond our
buy-to number, expected value decays and the edge can disappear. Respect the price.
Unit sizing (1–10): Our unit scale reflects model signal strength, injury/variance risk,
and current line availability. Higher units = stronger conviction, not permission to over-expose.
Staking & correlation: Default stake scales with edge and volatility. Avoid stacking too many
correlated outcomes (same game, same player ladder) unless you deliberately size down.
Closing-Line Value (CLV): Beating the close consistently is a quality signal—even across small samples.
Track your entry vs. close; it’s the most reliable feedback loop for long-term profitability.
Week 18 Line Movement
Every pick includes a playable to line or price (e.g., -2.5, Over 44.5, +115). If you can’t get that number or better, consider passing or reducing stake. Lines move—check back for live updates in our Live AI Picks stream and see quick notes in Odds & Line Movement.
Note – all of our data is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation as to whether or how to wager.
Line Movement Tracker — Week 18
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Oct 6, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/6/25 8:16PM
Chiefs
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
-200
+170
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-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
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O 45.5 (-110)
U 45.5 (-110)
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|
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Oct 9, 2025 8:15PM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
10/9/25 8:15PM
Eagles
Giants
|
–
–
|
-370
+295
|
-7.5 (-102)
+7.5 (-118)
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O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
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|
|
Oct 12, 2025 8:31AM EDT
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
10/12/25 8:31AM
Broncos
Jets
|
–
–
|
-360
+290
|
-7 (-110)
+7 (-110)
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O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Browns
Steelers
|
–
–
|
+200
-245
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+5.5 (-115)
-5.5 (-105)
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O 38.5 (-108)
U 38.5 (-112)
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|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
10/12/25 1:01PM
Chargers
Dolphins
|
–
–
|
-245
+200
|
-4.5 (-118)
+4.5 (-104)
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O 45.5 (-108)
U 45.5 (-112)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
10/12/25 1:01PM
Rams
Ravens
|
–
–
|
-420
+330
|
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
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O 45.5 (-105)
U 45.5 (-115)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cowboys
Panthers
|
–
–
|
-190
+160
|
-3.5 (-108)
+3.5 (-112)
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O 48.5 (-105)
U 48.5 (-115)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
10/12/25 1:01PM
Cardinals
Colts
|
–
–
|
+194
-235
|
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
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O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
|
|
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Oct 12, 2025 1:01PM EDT
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
10/12/25 1:01PM
Seahawks
Jaguars
|
–
–
|
-104
-112
|
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-102)
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O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 4:06PM EDT
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
10/12/25 4:06PM
Titans
Raiders
|
–
–
|
+215
-260
|
+5.5 (-104)
-5.5 (-118)
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O 41.5 (-108)
U 41.5 (-112)
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Oct 12, 2025 4:25PM EDT
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
10/12/25 4:25PM
Patriots
Saints
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–
–
|
-180
+154
|
-3.5 (-105)
+3.5 (-115)
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O 46.5 (-105)
U 46.5 (-115)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers
10/12/25 4:26PM
Bengals
Packers
|
–
–
|
+810
-1350
|
+14.5 (-112)
-14.5 (-108)
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O 43.5 (-112)
U 43.5 (-108)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 4:26PM EDT
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10/12/25 4:26PM
49ers
Buccaneers
|
–
–
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+134
-158
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+2.5 (+100)
-2.5 (-122)
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O 47.5 (-108)
U 47.5 (-112)
|
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Oct 12, 2025 8:21PM EDT
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
10/12/25 8:21PM
Lions
Chiefs
|
–
–
|
-104
-112
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+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-102)
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O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
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Oct 13, 2025 7:15PM EDT
Buffalo Bills
Atlanta Falcons
10/13/25 7:15PM
Bills
Falcons
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–
–
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-225
+188
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-4.5 (-112)
+4.5 (-108)
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O 50.5 (-105)
U 50.5 (-115)
|
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Oct 13, 2025 8:16PM EDT
Chicago Bears
Washington Commanders
10/13/25 8:16PM
Bears
Commanders
|
–
–
|
+184
-220
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+4.5 (-115)
-4.5 (-105)
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O 50.5 (-102)
U 50.5 (-120)
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How Our AI Picks Work
Our NFL model blends play-by-play efficiency, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. We incorporate injury reports, rest/travel effects, and weather to adjust team strength and total expectations. Each game is simulated thousands of times to produce fair prices; the displayed Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current market.
Market-aware: incorporates liquidity windows and closing-line efficiency.
Context-adjusted: rest days, travel, altitude, tempo, and scheme tendencies.
Transparency: we show confidence, edges, and track CLV and ROI.
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over millions of data from every simulation across NFL week 18 using recursive machine learning to impressive AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most focused on the trending weight knucklehead sportsbettors regularly put on player performance factors between a visitors team going up against a possibly rested home teams. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
FAQ — Week 18 NFL
Where can I see Week 18 NFL AI picks by bet type?
Right on this page. We publish Week 18 NFL computer picks organized by Against the Spread (ATS), Moneyline, Totals (Over/Under), and Player Props so you can jump straight to the markets you bet most.
What are the “best bets” for Week 18 according to the model?
“Best bets” are our highest-confidence Week 18 NFL AI picks based on fair price vs. current odds. Look for larger Model Edge % and higher confidence stars; those signal stronger value at widely available prices.
How are your Week 18 NFL computer picks generated?
We combine play-by-play data, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. The model produces a fair price for each side/total/prop, then compares it to live odds to surface Week 18 edges worth betting.
How often do you update Week 18 NFL AI picks?
Throughout the week and up to kickoff. As injuries, weather, and prices move, our projections refresh—so check back closer to game time for the most accurate read on Week 18 value.
Do your Week 18 picks include player props like anytime TD or yardage?
Yes. Our Week 18 NFL AI picks include props such as anytime touchdown, rushing/receiving yards, passing yards, attempts, and more when markets are liquid and pricing shows an edge.
Do you post same-game parlay (SGP) ideas for Week 18?
When correlations and prices justify it, we highlight SGP concepts tied to our Week 18 AI edges—think side/total anchored to complementary player props. We only list combos when expected value remains positive.
What do Model Edge % and units mean?
Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current line/price. Units (1–10) summarize signal quality, volatility, and line availability for Week 18 NFL AI picks.
What are “buy-to” numbers, and what if the line moves?
“Buy-to” is the furthest playable number before expected value disappears. If the market pushes past that level, the Week 18 pick may no longer qualify—wait for a better price or skip the bet.
Do you track closing-line value (CLV) and ROI for Week 18?
Yes. We grade results against widely available prices at publish time and monitor CLV to gauge process quality. You’ll also find recent record and ROI to keep Week 18 performance transparent.
How should I size bets on Week 18 NFL AI picks?
Scale stake size with edge and volatility. Larger Model Edge % and higher confidence typically merit slightly larger positions, but avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes within the same game.
Are teasers viable for Week 18?
Sometimes. Teasers can make sense around key numbers when totals and pricing conditions are favorable. If our Week 18 read flags teaser value, we’ll note the recommended legs and limits.
How do injuries, weather, and travel impact Week 18 NFL picks?
Materially. The model adjusts team strength, pace, and totals for late scratches, snap-count news, wind/rain/cold thresholds, altitude, rest, and travel. Those inputs can change edges close to kickoff.
Where can I compare Week 18 NFL odds to shop the best number?
Use your preferred odds screen or our odds links from this page. Shopping lines is essential—Model Edge % is calculated against available prices, and the best number often determines long-term ROI.
Can I get alerts when new Week 18 NFL AI picks post or when lines move to buy-to?
Yes. Enable notifications or subscribe for alerts so you catch new Week 18 AI picks, notable line moves, and updates to buy-to ranges before the market fully adjusts.
Past NFL AI Picks
| NFL |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DEN | DEN -7.5 | 54.8 | 4 | WIN |
| NYJ@MIA | OVER 44 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
| CIN@DEN | UNDER 44.5 | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
| NYJ@MIA | GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9 TARGETS | 53.7% | 3 | WIN |
| CIN@DEN | TEE HIGGINS OVER 6.5 RECV TARGETS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| WAS@ATL | ATL -2.5 | 54.3 | 4 | WIN |
| BAL@KC | BAL -2.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| TEN@HOU | TEN +7.5 | 57.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| LAC@NYG | LAC -6 | 57.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| NO@BUF | UNDER 48.5 | 55.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| GB@DAL | JAVONTE WILLIAMS UNDER 72.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| CAR@NE | DRAKE MAYE TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| SEA@ARI | SEA -125 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
| SEA@ARI | KYLER MURRAY TO THROW AN INT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| DET@BAL | JAHMYR GIBBS OVER 0.5 RUSH TDS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| DAL@CHI | DAL -120 | 58.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| PIT@NE | PIT -116 | 60.1% | 6 | WIN |
| ATL@CAR | ATL -4.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| LV@WAS | LV +3 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| GB@CLE | GB -7 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| ARI@SF | ARI +3 | 57.7% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@NYG | PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 230.5 PASS YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| GB@CLE | JOE FLACCO OVER 37.5 PASS ATT | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| MIA@BUF | TYREEK HILL OVER 5.5 TOTAL RECEPTIONS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAC@LV | LAC -3 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| TB@HOU | BAKER MAYFIELD OVER 1.5 PASS TDS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| CHI@DET | DET -6.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| DEN@IND | DEN -118 | 60.1% | 10 | LOSS |
| PHI@KC | PHI -115 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| SF@NO | SF -3 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
| SEA@PIT | OVER 40 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@ARI | BRYCE YOUNG INTERCEPTIONS UNDER 0.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| DEN@IND | JOSH DOWNS RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| ATL@MIN | BIJAN ROBINSON RUSH + REC YDS OVER 94.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@GB | WAS +3.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| WAS@GB | JORDAN LOVE OVER 5.5 RUSH YDS | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| MIN@CHI | CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 219.5 PASS YDS | 53.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| TEN@DEN | DEN -8.5 | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| SF@SEA | SF -115 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| SF@SEA | KENNETH WALKER III UNDER 79.5 RUSH+REC YDS | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CAR@JAC | TANK BIGSBY OVER 10.5 RUSH ATT | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| KC@LAC | JUSTIN HERBERT UNDER 0.5 INT | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
| DAL@PHI | GEORGE PICKENS LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 22.5 YDS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| KC@PHI | JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 16.5 RECV YDS | 53.90% | 5 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | DEVONTA SMITH LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 20.5 YDS | 54.40% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 68.3% PASS COMP | 55.00% | 8 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | JALEN HURTS LONGEST RUSH OVER 12.5 YDS | 55.60% | 8 | WIN |
| BUF@KC | DALTON KINCAID OVER 29.5 RECV YDS | 55.10% | 8 | LOSS |
| WAS@PHI | DEVONTA SMITH OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS | 55.80% | 8 | WIN |
| BUF@KC | JAMES COOK ANYTIME TD | 53.00% | 5 | WIN |
| LAR@PHI | SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 128 RUSH + REC YDS | 53.20% | 5 | LOSS |