Must Bet NFL Week 14 AI Picks, Predictions & Hidden Market Mistakes
Updated: 2025-11-30T08:00:00-06:00By Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
Our Week 14 NFL computer picks combine play-by-play data, simulations, and market moves to surface ATS, moneyline, over/under, and player prop edges. Below you’ll find AI predictions with confidence ratings, plus best bets and buy-to numbers.
Pro tip: prices move. Refresh before kickoff to catch new edges and verify current odds.
Best Week 14
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WEEK 14 NFL Computer Picks (ATS, ML, O/U)
WEEK 14 NFL Odds
WEEK 14 NFL ODDS COMPARISON
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Live AI NFL Picks — Week 14
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NFL schedule.
Below is our current AI NFL picks Week 14, NFL computer picks Week 14, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
 |
DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
Week 14 Storylines & Angles
Offense vs. Defense Mismatches
Quarterback & Scheme Trends
Travel, Rest & Situational Spots
Weather & Late-Breaking Injuries
Check up to the minute weather forecasts here.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
NFL Week 14 Best Bets & AI Prop Picks
Week 14 NFL Best Bet – Pro Tips
Note Price sensitivity: We crunch numbers, not teams. If the market moves beyond our
buy-to number, expected value decays and the edge can disappear. Respect the price.
Unit sizing (1–10): Our unit scale reflects model signal strength, injury/variance risk,
and current line availability. Higher units = stronger conviction, not permission to over-expose.
Staking & correlation: Default stake scales with edge and volatility. Avoid stacking too many
correlated outcomes (same game, same player ladder) unless you deliberately size down.
Closing-Line Value (CLV): Beating the close consistently is a quality signal—even across small samples.
Track your entry vs. close; it’s the most reliable feedback loop for long-term profitability.
Week 14 Line Movement
Every pick includes a playable to line or price (e.g., -2.5, Over 44.5, +115). If you can’t get that number or better, consider passing or reducing stake. Lines move—check back for live updates in our Live AI Picks stream and see quick notes in Odds & Line Movement.
Note – all of our data is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation as to whether or how to wager.
Line Movement Tracker — Week 14
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nov 20, 2025 8:15PM EST
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans
11/20/25 8:15PM
Bills
Texans
|
–
–
|
-290
+235
|
-5.5 (-122)
+5.5 (+100)
|
O 43.5 (-110)
U 43.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
Seattle Seahawks
Tennessee Titans
11/23/25 1PM
Seahawks
Titans
|
–
–
|
-1100
+700
|
-13.5 (-108)
+13.5 (-112)
|
O 40.5 (-110)
U 40.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
New England Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals
11/23/25 1PM
Patriots
Bengals
|
–
–
|
-330
+265
|
-7 (-110)
+7 (-110)
|
O 50.5 (-105)
U 50.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
New York Giants
Detroit Lions
11/23/25 1PM
Giants
Lions
|
–
–
|
+420
-560
|
+10.5 (-120)
-10.5 (-102)
|
O 49.5 (-115)
U 49.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
11/23/25 1PM
Jets
Ravens
|
–
–
|
+730
-1150
|
+13.5 (-110)
-13.5 (-110)
|
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs
11/23/25 1PM
Colts
Chiefs
|
–
–
|
+156
-186
|
+3.5 (-120)
-3.5 (-102)
|
O 49.5 (-115)
U 49.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
11/23/25 1PM
Vikings
Packers
|
–
–
|
+240
-295
|
+6.5 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
|
O 41.5 (-105)
U 41.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 1:00PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers
Chicago Bears
11/23/25 1PM
Steelers
Bears
|
–
–
|
+122
-144
|
+2.5 (-105)
-2.5 (-115)
|
O 44.5 (-120)
U 44.5 (-102)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 4:05PM EST
Cleveland Browns
Las Vegas Raiders
11/23/25 4:05PM
Browns
Raiders
|
–
–
|
+176
-210
|
+3.5 (-104)
-3.5 (-118)
|
O 36.5 (-104)
U 36.5 (-118)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 4:05PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals
11/23/25 4:05PM
Jaguars
Cardinals
|
–
–
|
-154
+130
|
-2.5 (-122)
+2.5 (+100)
|
O 47.5 (-105)
U 47.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 4:25PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
11/23/25 4:25PM
Eagles
Cowboys
|
–
–
|
-174
+144
|
-3.5 (+100)
+3.5 (-122)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 4:25PM EST
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
11/23/25 4:25PM
Falcons
Saints
|
–
–
|
+110
-130
|
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
|
O 39.5 (-105)
U 39.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Nov 23, 2025 8:20PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams
11/23/25 8:20PM
Buccaneers
Rams
|
–
–
|
+265
-330
|
+6.5 (-102)
-6.5 (-120)
|
O 49.5 (-110)
U 49.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 24, 2025 8:15PM EST
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers
11/24/25 8:15PM
Panthers
49ers
|
–
–
|
+280
-350
|
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
|
O 48.5 (-105)
U 48.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2025 1:00PM EST
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
11/27/25 1PM
Packers
Lions
|
–
–
|
+138
-164
|
+3 (-110)
-3 (-110)
|
O 48.5 (-120)
U 48.5 (-102)
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2025 4:30PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys
11/27/25 4:30PM
Chiefs
Cowboys
|
–
–
|
-186
+156
|
-3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-110)
|
O 51.5 (-110)
U 51.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 27, 2025 8:20PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
11/27/25 8:20PM
Bengals
Ravens
|
–
–
|
+350
-450
|
+7.5 (-105)
-7.5 (-115)
|
O 51.5 (-110)
U 51.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 28, 2025 3:00PM EST
Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles
11/28/25 3PM
Bears
Eagles
|
–
–
|
+280
-350
|
+7 (-115)
-7 (-105)
|
O 44.5 (-110)
U 44.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Nov 30, 2025 1:00PM EST
San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland Browns
11/30/25 1PM
49ers
Browns
|
–
–
|
-340
+275
|
-7 (-105)
+7 (-115)
|
O 42.5 (-115)
U 42.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Nov 30, 2025 1:00PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
11/30/25 1PM
Jaguars
Titans
|
–
–
|
-350
+280
|
-7 (-110)
+7 (-110)
|
O 41.5 (-110)
U 41.5 (-110)
|
How Our AI Picks Work
Our NFL model blends play-by-play efficiency, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. We incorporate injury reports, rest/travel effects, and weather to adjust team strength and total expectations. Each game is simulated thousands of times to produce fair prices; the displayed Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current market.
Market-aware: incorporates liquidity windows and closing-line efficiency.
Context-adjusted: rest days, travel, altitude, tempo, and scheme tendencies.
Transparency: we show confidence, edges, and track CLV and ROI.
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle across NFL week 14 using recursive machine learning to cutting-edge AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most fixated on the trending emphasis human bettors often put on player performance factors between a visitors team going up against a possibly deflated home teams. Trends look to say the true game analytics appear to reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our NFL AI picks for FREE now.
FAQ — Week 14 NFL
Where can I see Week 14 NFL AI picks by bet type?
Right on this page. We publish Week 14 NFL computer picks organized by Against the Spread (ATS), Moneyline, Totals (Over/Under), and Player Props so you can jump straight to the markets you bet most.
What are the “best bets” for Week 14 according to the model?
“Best bets” are our highest-confidence Week 14 NFL AI picks based on fair price vs. current odds. Look for larger Model Edge % and higher confidence stars; those signal stronger value at widely available prices.
How are your Week 14 NFL computer picks generated?
We combine play-by-play data, drive-level simulations, and market-aware priors. The model produces a fair price for each side/total/prop, then compares it to live odds to surface Week 14 edges worth betting.
How often do you update Week 14 NFL AI picks?
Throughout the week and up to kickoff. As injuries, weather, and prices move, our projections refresh—so check back closer to game time for the most accurate read on Week 14 value.
Do your Week 14 picks include player props like anytime TD or yardage?
Yes. Our Week 14 NFL AI picks include props such as anytime touchdown, rushing/receiving yards, passing yards, attempts, and more when markets are liquid and pricing shows an edge.
Do you post same-game parlay (SGP) ideas for Week 14?
When correlations and prices justify it, we highlight SGP concepts tied to our Week 14 AI edges—think side/total anchored to complementary player props. We only list combos when expected value remains positive.
What do Model Edge % and units mean?
Model Edge % is the gap between our fair price and the current line/price. Units (1–10) summarize signal quality, volatility, and line availability for Week 14 NFL AI picks.
What are “buy-to” numbers, and what if the line moves?
“Buy-to” is the furthest playable number before expected value disappears. If the market pushes past that level, the Week 14 pick may no longer qualify—wait for a better price or skip the bet.
Do you track closing-line value (CLV) and ROI for Week 14?
Yes. We grade results against widely available prices at publish time and monitor CLV to gauge process quality. You’ll also find recent record and ROI to keep Week 14 performance transparent.
How should I size bets on Week 14 NFL AI picks?
Scale stake size with edge and volatility. Larger Model Edge % and higher confidence typically merit slightly larger positions, but avoid over-exposure to correlated outcomes within the same game.
Are teasers viable for Week 14?
Sometimes. Teasers can make sense around key numbers when totals and pricing conditions are favorable. If our Week 14 read flags teaser value, we’ll note the recommended legs and limits.
How do injuries, weather, and travel impact Week 14 NFL picks?
Materially. The model adjusts team strength, pace, and totals for late scratches, snap-count news, wind/rain/cold thresholds, altitude, rest, and travel. Those inputs can change edges close to kickoff.
Where can I compare Week 14 NFL odds to shop the best number?
Use your preferred odds screen or our odds links from this page. Shopping lines is essential—Model Edge % is calculated against available prices, and the best number often determines long-term ROI.
Can I get alerts when new Week 14 NFL AI picks post or when lines move to buy-to?
Yes. Enable notifications or subscribe for alerts so you catch new Week 14 AI picks, notable line moves, and updates to buy-to ranges before the market fully adjusts.
Past NFL AI Picks
| NFL |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@LV | UNDER 49.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
| DAL@LV | BROCK BOWERS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS | 57.6% | 7 | WIN |
| CAR@ATL | BRYCE YOUNG UNDER 0.5 INT | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
| KC@DEN | PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 266.5 PASS YDS | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| SF@ARI | SF -3 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
| GB@NYG | GB -7 | 54.3% | 4 | PUSH |
| LAC@JAC | LAC -3 | 53.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| SEA@LAR | SEA +3.5 | 57.2% | 7 | WIN |
| CHI@MIN | MIN -2.5 | 53.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| DET@PHI | DET +3 | 55.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| KC@DEN | DEN +4.5 | 53.0% | 2 | WIN |
| DET@PHI | UNDER 47 | 53.4% | 2 | WIN |
| SEA@LAR | OVER 48.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| NYJ@NE | UNDER 43.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
| NYJ@NE | JAMIEN SHERWOOD OVER 4.5 TACKLES | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| PHI@GB | PHI +1.5 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
| PHI@GB | UNDER 45.5 | 52.4% | 2 | WIN |
| PHI@GB | SAQUON BARKLEY OVER 17.5 RUSH ATT | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| PHI@GB | JOSH JACOBS UNDER 42.5 1ST HALF RUSH + REC YDS | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| NO@CAR | CAR -5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| BAL@MIN | BAL -3.5 | 57.6% | 7 | WIN |
| CLE@NYJ | CLE -130 | 65.4% | 7 | LOSS |
| NYG@CHI | CHI -4.5 | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| NE@TB | TB -2 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAR@SF | LAR -5.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| JAC@HOU | UNDER 38 | 54.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| ARI@SEA | TREY MCBRIDE OVER 9 RECV TARGETS | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| DET@WAS | TERRION ARNOLD OVER 4.5 TACKLES + ASSTS | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| JAC@HOU | TRAVIS ETIENNE UNDER 74.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 54.4 | 4 | LOSS |
| LV@DEN | DANIEL CARLSON OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| LV@DEN | COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 53.5 RECV YDS | 54.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| LV@DEN | RILEY MOSS OVER 4.5 TACKLE + ASST | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
| LV@DEN | UNDER 43 | 53.4% | 2 | WIN |
| ARI@DAL | BUDDA BAKER OVER 7.5 TACKLES + ASSTS | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| ARI@DAL | GEORGE PICKENS OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| DEN@HOU | WIL LUTZ OVER 1.5 MADE FIELD GOALS | 54.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| SEA@WAS | SEA -3 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| IND@PIT | IND -3 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAC@TEN | LAC -9.5 | 56.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| CHI@CIN | CHI -2.5 | 52.6% | 2 | WIN |
| SEA@WAS | OVER 48 | 52.9% | 2 | WIN |
| SEA@WAS | JAYDEN DANIELS OVER 20.5 PASS COMP | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| JAC@LV | JAC -140 | 64.2% | 7 | WIN |
| NO@LAR | LAR -14 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
| DEN@HOU | HOU -1.5 | 54.2% | 3 | LOSS |
| CAR@GB | GB -12.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| SF@NYG | NYG +2.5 | 56.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| BAL@MIA | TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 0.5 INT | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| TB@NO | TB -3.5 | 52.3% | 1 | WIN |
| GB@PIT | GB -2.5 | 52.3% | 1 | WIN |
| SF@HOU | SF +2.5 | 56.0% | 6 | LOSS |