Raptors vs Pelicans Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS NBA Lines & Props (Mar 11)
Updated: 2026-03-09T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Toronto Raptors travel to the Smoothie King Center to face the New Orleans Pelicans on March 11, 2026 in a matchup between an Eastern Conference playoff contender and a Western Conference team trying to build momentum late in the season. Toronto enters the game with a 36–27 record while New Orleans sits at 21–45, making this a key opportunity for the Raptors to strengthen their playoff positioning while the Pelicans attempt to play spoiler at home. Both teams have shown offensive potential this season, with Toronto averaging roughly 113–114 points per game while New Orleans averages about 115 points but has struggled defensively, allowing more than 120 points per contest.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Mar 11, 2026
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Pelicans Record: (21-45)
Raptors Record: (36-27)
OPENING ODDS
TOR Moneyline: -118
NO Moneyline: +105
TOR Spread: -1.5
NO Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 232.5
TOR
Betting Trends
- Toronto is 5–5 against the spread in its last ten games, reflecting a team that has been relatively even against betting expectations recently.
NO
Betting Trends
- New Orleans has been stronger recently against the spread, posting a 7–3 ATS record over its last ten games.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The Pelicans have seen the total go over in four of their last five games, highlighting the team’s high-scoring style. Toronto averages about 113.7 points per game while allowing roughly 111.7, indicating a relatively balanced scoring differential. New Orleans averages around 115.5 points but allows approximately 120.2 per game, one of the key reasons for its losing record.
TOR vs. NO
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Queen over 11.5 PTS+REB.
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Toronto vs New Orleans Prediction & Odds:
Free NBA Betting Insights for 3/11/26
The March 11 matchup between the Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans presents an intriguing contest between two teams heading in different directions in the standings but capable of producing entertaining offensive basketball. Toronto enters the game with a 36–27 record and currently sits within the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have been competitive throughout the season thanks to a balanced roster and a system that emphasizes ball movement, versatility, and defensive activity. Toronto averages approximately 113.7 points per game while allowing around 111.7, giving them a modest but meaningful scoring advantage over many opponents. This balance has allowed the Raptors to remain competitive even when facing stronger offensive teams. A major factor in Toronto’s success has been the development of its core players. Scottie Barnes continues to serve as a versatile leader who contributes scoring, rebounding, and playmaking, while guards like Immanuel Quickley provide perimeter scoring and ball handling. The Raptors also rely on multiple secondary contributors to maintain offensive production, which helps the team remain difficult to defend because scoring threats can come from several positions. The New Orleans Pelicans enter the game with a 21–45 record and have experienced a challenging season in the Western Conference. While the team has struggled to maintain consistent results, the Pelicans remain capable of explosive offensive performances.
They average approximately 115.5 points per game, which ranks competitively within the league’s scoring averages. However, the Pelicans’ biggest challenge has been their defense, as the team allows around 120.2 points per contest. This defensive weakness has made it difficult for New Orleans to close out games even when its offense is performing well. Players such as Trey Murphy III and Brandon Ingram have been key offensive contributors for the Pelicans, with Murphy averaging around 22 points per game and providing significant perimeter scoring. One of the most interesting aspects of this matchup is the contrast in momentum. While Toronto has been relatively consistent with a .500 record over its last ten games, New Orleans has recently shown improved competitiveness, posting a stronger record against the spread and winning several games in recent weeks. That trend suggests the Pelicans have been playing better than their overall record might indicate. The pace of the game could ultimately determine the outcome. Toronto tends to operate with a structured offense that emphasizes ball movement and half-court efficiency, while New Orleans often prefers a faster tempo that allows its scorers to attack early in the shot clock. If the Raptors can slow the game down and control defensive rebounds, they may limit the Pelicans’ transition opportunities. Conversely, if New Orleans succeeds in pushing the pace and creating high-scoring sequences, the Pelicans could turn the contest into a shootout. Overall, the matchup appears relatively balanced statistically despite the difference in records. Toronto’s stronger defense and depth may provide an advantage, but New Orleans’ offensive firepower and home-court environment could make the game competitive from start to finish.
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4 points on 3 turnovers, here's 2 of 'em 💥 pic.twitter.com/SQ2nljF1uO
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) March 11, 2026
Toronto Raptors NBA Preview
The Toronto Raptors enter their matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans in a strong position within the Eastern Conference playoff race. With a record of 36–27, Toronto has established itself as a competitive team capable of contending with many of the league’s top opponents. The Raptors’ success this season has been built on a combination of balanced scoring, strong defensive effort, and contributions from several key players throughout the roster. Averaging approximately 113.7 points per game while allowing around 111.7, Toronto maintains a positive scoring differential that reflects its ability to compete on both ends of the court. A major component of the Raptors’ offensive strategy is versatility. Rather than relying solely on one superstar scorer, Toronto distributes offensive responsibilities across multiple players. Scottie Barnes has emerged as one of the team’s most important contributors, providing scoring, rebounding, and playmaking from the forward position. His ability to impact multiple aspects of the game allows Toronto to maintain offensive flow while also strengthening its defense. Guards such as Immanuel Quickley contribute additional scoring and playmaking, helping to create opportunities for teammates and maintain consistent offensive production. Toronto also benefits from a system that emphasizes ball movement and spacing. The Raptors frequently create scoring opportunities by moving the ball quickly around the perimeter and forcing defenses to shift.
This approach can generate open shots from beyond the arc or driving lanes toward the basket. When the Raptors execute this system effectively, they become difficult to defend because opposing teams must guard multiple scoring threats simultaneously. Defensively, Toronto has demonstrated greater consistency than many teams in the league. Allowing approximately 111.7 points per game, the Raptors rely on active perimeter defense and strong rebounding to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. This defensive stability has been a key factor in their ability to maintain a winning record throughout the season. By forcing contested shots and securing defensive rebounds, Toronto often prevents opponents from building momentum during games. Against the Pelicans, Toronto will likely emphasize controlling the tempo and limiting transition opportunities. New Orleans thrives when games become fast-paced and high scoring, so slowing the pace and forcing half-court possessions could benefit the Raptors. Toronto’s defensive structure and rebounding ability may help neutralize some of the Pelicans’ offensive strengths. If the Raptors can execute their offensive system efficiently while maintaining defensive discipline, they will have a strong chance of securing a road victory. With playoff positioning becoming increasingly important as the season progresses, Toronto will approach this matchup with the focus and intensity necessary to continue its push toward the postseason.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
New Orleans Pelicans NBA Preview
The New Orleans Pelicans enter their March 11 game against the Toronto Raptors looking to continue building momentum despite a difficult season in the Western Conference. With a 21–45 record, the Pelicans currently sit near the bottom of the standings and have struggled to maintain consistency throughout the year. However, the team has shown signs of improvement in recent games and has played better against the spread than its record might suggest. Over the last ten games, New Orleans has posted a strong 7–3 record against the spread, indicating that the team has been more competitive than many expectations have suggested. This improvement reflects a roster that continues to fight hard and produce offensive results even during a rebuilding phase. Offensively, the Pelicans remain one of the more entertaining teams to watch. They average about 115.5 points per game and frequently rely on perimeter shooting and quick ball movement to generate scoring opportunities. Trey Murphy III has been one of the team’s most consistent scorers, averaging roughly 22 points per game while also contributing with efficient shooting from beyond the arc. Brandon Ingram provides another key scoring option, bringing versatility as a forward who can score both in isolation and within the flow of the offense. Together, these players form the core of a scoring attack capable of producing high totals against almost any defense. Another factor contributing to New Orleans’ recent competitiveness is the team’s ability to push the pace. The Pelicans often attempt to accelerate the tempo of games by attacking quickly in transition and creating early scoring chances before opposing defenses can fully organize.
This style can be particularly effective at home, where crowd energy can help sustain scoring runs. When the Pelicans establish rhythm from the perimeter and convert fast-break opportunities, they become significantly more difficult for opponents to contain. Despite these offensive strengths, the Pelicans’ defense remains the primary challenge. The team allows approximately 120 points per game, one of the higher defensive averages in the league. Opponents have frequently taken advantage of defensive lapses in the paint and inconsistent perimeter coverage. Improving defensive rotations and communication will be crucial if the Pelicans hope to compete more effectively against stronger teams like Toronto. Facing the Raptors presents both a challenge and an opportunity for New Orleans. Toronto’s balanced roster and defensive discipline could make scoring more difficult, but the Pelicans’ offensive style gives them the potential to keep the game competitive. If New Orleans can maintain high shooting efficiency, win the rebounding battle, and generate fast-break points, they could put significant pressure on the Raptors. Ultimately, the Pelicans will likely approach this matchup with the goal of turning it into a high-scoring contest. By pushing the pace and relying on their offensive strengths, New Orleans will attempt to overcome defensive shortcomings and secure a valuable home victory against a playoff contender.
in office pic.twitter.com/tRsTnYQjr5
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 9, 2026
Toronto vs New Orleans Prop Picks (AI)
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of datapoints on each player. In fact, anytime the Raptors and Pelicans play there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at Smoothie King Center in Mar seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Toronto vs New Orleans Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every simulation between the Raptors and Pelicans and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most fixated on the trending weight emotional bettors tend to put on Toronto’s strength factors between a Raptors team going up against a possibly deflated Pelicans team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
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Below is our current AI Toronto vs New Orleans picks, computer picks Raptors vs Pelicans, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
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| NBA | 3/12 | PHI@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 6 |
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| NBA | 3/12 | BOS@OKC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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| NBA | 3/12 | BKN@ATL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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| NBA | 3/12 | CHI@LAL | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
EXECUTIVE
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| NBA | 3/12 | DAL@MEM | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 10 |
INTEL
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| NBA | 3/12 | PHI@DET | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full NBA schedule.
Toronto Betting Trends
Toronto is 5–5 against the spread in its last ten games, reflecting a team that has been relatively even against betting expectations recently.
New Orleans Betting Trends
New Orleans has been stronger recently against the spread, posting a 7–3 ATS record over its last ten games.
Raptors vs. Pelicans Matchup Trends
The Pelicans have seen the total go over in four of their last five games, highlighting the team’s high-scoring style. Toronto averages about 113.7 points per game while allowing roughly 111.7, indicating a relatively balanced scoring differential. New Orleans averages around 115.5 points but allows approximately 120.2 per game, one of the key reasons for its losing record.
Toronto vs. New Orleans Game Info
Toronto vs New Orleans starts on March 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST.
Venue: Smoothie King Center.
Spread: New Orleans +1.5
Moneyline: Toronto -118, New Orleans +105
Over/Under: 232.5
Toronto: (36-27) | New Orleans: (21-45)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Queen over 11.5 PTS+REB.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
The Pelicans have seen the total go over in four of their last five games, highlighting the team’s high-scoring style. Toronto averages about 113.7 points per game while allowing roughly 111.7, indicating a relatively balanced scoring differential. New Orleans averages around 115.5 points but allows approximately 120.2 per game, one of the key reasons for its losing record.
TOR trend: Toronto is 5–5 against the spread in its last ten games, reflecting a team that has been relatively even against betting expectations recently.
NO trend: New Orleans has been stronger recently against the spread, posting a 7–3 ATS record over its last ten games.
See our latest NBA picks and odds pages for 2026 to compare prices before you bet.
Toronto vs. New Orleans Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the Toronto vs New Orleans trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
| TOR Moneyline | -118 |
|---|---|
| NO Moneyline | +105 |
| TOR Spread | -1.5 |
| NO Spread | +1.5 |
| Over / Under | 232.5 |
Toronto vs New Orleans Live Odds
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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NBA Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans on March 11, 2026 at Smoothie King Center.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our NBA odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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RESULT | |
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| NY@UTA | NY -13.5 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
| NY@UTA | ACE BAILEY UNDER 6.5 REB + ASST | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| BOS@SA | BOS +3.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| MEM@PHI | MEM +2.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| PHX@MIL | MIL +1 | 53.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| TOR@HOU | HOU -4.5 | 53.9% | 2 | WIN |
| DAL@ATL | ZACCHARIE RISACHER OVER 3.5 REB | 53.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| PHX@MIL | RYAN ROLLINS UNDER 5.5 ASST | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| PHI@CLE | DENNIS SCHRODER OVER 1.5 TURNOVERS | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| GS@UTA | BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI OVER 1.5 STEALS & BLOCKS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| MEM@BKN | BKN +2 | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
| DEN@OKC | DEN +6.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| CHI@SAC | SAC +2 | 54.0% | 4 | WIN |
| HOU@SA | HOU +5.5 | 56.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| NY@LAL | LAL +2.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| DET@MIA | DUNCAN ROBINSON OVER 14.5 PTS + REB | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| ORL@MIL | RYAN ROLLINS UNDER 10.5 REB + ASST | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WAS@NO | ALEX SARR OVER 8.5 REB + ASST | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| ORL@MIN | PAOLO BANCHERO UNDER 7.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| UTA@MIL | KYLE KUZMA OVER 2.5 ASST | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| PHI@ATL | PHI +6.5 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| NO@PHX | NO +4.5 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| NY@DEN | DEN +1.5 | 57.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| MIA@CHA | GRANT WILLIAMS OVER 3.5 REB | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| DAL@BOS | JAYSON TATUM OVER 6.5 REB + ASST | 56.2% | 6 | WIN |
| TOR@MIN | TOR +4.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| NO@SAC | SAC +6.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| DET@SA | DET +3.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| CHI@PHX | GRAYSON ALLEN OVER 5.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| LAL@DEN | LEBRON JAMES UNDER 5.5 REB | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| CHA@BOS | CHA +6.5 | 55.9% | 5 | WIN |
| POR@MEM | MEM +10 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
| UTA@PHI | ACE BAILEY OVER 22.5 PTS + REB + ASST | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| ATL@MIL | MYLES TURNER OVER 4.5 REB | 55.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| OKC@CHI | CHI +9.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| NY@TOR | TOR +2.5 | 57.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| PHX@SAC | SAC +9.5 | 54.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| NO@LAL | LEBRON JAMES OVER 7.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 57.4% | 7 | WIN |
| HOU@WAS | ALPEREN SENGUN OVER 5.5 ASST | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| LAC@GS | AL HORFORD OVER 1.5 STEALS + BLOCKS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| BOS@MIL | BOS -7.5 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| MEM@IND | IND +1 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| OKC@DAL | ISAIAH HARTENSTEIN OVER 12.5 REB + ASST | 55.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| PHI@BOS | DERRICK WHITE OVER 5.5 ASST | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| POR@CHA | POR +7.5 | 56.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| DEN@OKC | DEN +7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| MEM@DAL | MAX CHRISTIE OVER 5.5 REB + ASST | 53.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| DEN@OKC | CHET HOLMGREN UNDER 8.5 REB | 55.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| SAC@DAL | SAC +7 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| HOU@ORL | JABARI SMITH JR. OVER 4.5 FIELD GOALS MADE | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SA@TOR | TOR +7.5 | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |