Indiana opens a redemption season with Tyrese Haliburton returning from Achilles rehab, but the market has already nudged toward New Orleans, whose 26-14-1 home ATS mark last season makes this opener more dangerous than the records suggest.
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Injury Report
Indiana's defining health angle is Tyrese Haliburton, who missed all of 2025-26 after tearing his right Achilles and is set to return this season. New Orleans finished last season with Trey Murphy III sidelined by an ankle sprain, but an August 5 team update described him as headed into another big season. Haliburton's workload after a 16-month layoff remains the major betting variable.
Key Players
Key Matchup Edge
New Orleans' strongest betting edge is location: the Pelicans went 26-14-1 ATS at home last season, while Indiana was only 16-25 ATS on the road. Indiana's personnel is substantially better with Haliburton back, but opening-night bettors should weigh that upgrade against a proven home-cover split and the uncertainty of his first regular-season game since the 2025 Finals.
3 Things to Watch
- Haliburton's first regular-season action since 2025
- Pelicans' home ATS edge from last season
- Murphy's three-point volume against Indiana's pace
Betting Breakdown
Indiana enters the opener as a modest road favorite, with current FOX pricing around Pacers -3.5 and 242.5 after StatMuse showed an opening number near -4.5 and 243.5. That small move toward New Orleans matters because the Pelicans were one of the league's better home-cover teams last season at 26-14-1 ATS, while Indiana finished only 16-25 ATS away. The larger handicap is personnel. Tyrese Haliburton is set to return after missing all of 2025-26 with a torn Achilles, reuniting with Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard while Indiana adds Ivica Zubac inside. New Orleans counters with Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Jeremiah Fears and a new defensive-minded head coach in Jamahl Mosley. The Pelicans' 25th-ranked defense from last season must improve quickly against a Pacers team that should create cleaner shots with Haliburton organizing. Indiana's upside is obvious, but opening-night rust and New Orleans' home ATS profile keep the underdog live.
Utah Betting Outlook
Indiana's 19-63 finish is a poor guide to this roster's ceiling because Haliburton missed the entire season. His return restores the lead creator who averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists in 2024-25, while Siakam remains a 24.0-point scorer from last season and Zubac gives the Pacers a true interior anchor. The betting concern is road execution: Indiana went 8-33 straight up and 16-25 ATS away in 2025-26. The Pacers did close 4-1 ATS over their final five, but this opener asks them to translate a major personnel upgrade into immediate chemistry. A spread in the -3.5 to -4.5 range prices meaningful improvement already, making Haliburton's pace control and late-game shot creation essential to covering.
Memphis Betting Outlook
New Orleans finished 26-56 but was far more competitive for bettors at Smoothie King Center, going 26-14-1 ATS at home despite a 17-24 straight-up home record. Murphy is the cleanest perimeter weapon after averaging 21.5 points and 3.2 made threes last season, while Williamson supplies interior pressure and Fears enters year two after playing all 82 games as a rookie. Mosley's arrival should place immediate emphasis on defense after the Pelicans ranked 25th in defensive rating. The home dog case rests on continuity, Murphy's shooting volume and Indiana's potential rust around Haliburton's return. New Orleans does not need to be the better team long term to stay inside a short opening-night number.
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What is the biggest matchup edge for Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies?
New Orleans' strongest betting edge is location: the Pelicans went 26-14-1 ATS at home last season, while Indiana was only 16-25 ATS on the road. Indiana's personnel is substantially better with Haliburton back, but opening-night bettors should weigh that upgrade against a proven home-cover split and the uncertainty of his first regular-season game since the 2025 Finals.
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