Houston enters this spot with the better record, the longer winning streak, and a more stable identity, which is why the Rockets opened as road favorites. They have won five straight and are defending at a high level while keeping games in a manageable half-court shape. That matters against a Golden State team that has lost three in a row and is still dealing with major rotation absences. The counterpunch is obvious: Stephen Curry is expected back, and his presence alone can reshape spacing, pace, and late-clock offense in a way the raw record no longer captures. Bettors have to decide whether that single upgrade is enough to offset Houston's deeper frontcourt, stronger rebounding profile, and cleaner recent form. The previous two meetings were split and both were tight, so a one-possession game script is easy to imagine. Still, if Curry is anything short of fully unleashed, Houston looks like the side with fewer structural leaks and more dependable possession-to-possession control.