Milwaukee owns the clearest foundational edge in Monday's opener. Jacob Misiorowski brings a 1.62 ERA, 0.757 WHIP and 167 strikeouts into a matchup with a Mets offense ranked tied for 27th in OPS at .686. New York did show life by taking two of three in Philadelphia, including a 14-hit Sunday win, but sustaining that contact against elite velocity is a much tougher assignment. Freddy Peralta adds emotion in his first start against the organization that traded him, yet his 4.66 ERA and five-walk outing before the break create pressure against a balanced Brewers lineup. Milwaukee ranks 10th in OPS, fourth in runs and enters on a three-game winning streak after sweeping Miami. The Brewers also hold major staff advantages, ranking second in team ERA and fourth in bullpen ERA. The primary betting path favors Milwaukee early, with Misiorowski hits allowed under and a Mets team-total under carrying stronger matchup logic than backing New York's brief offensive rebound.