The September 24, 2025 matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park offers a late-season divisional clash between two teams at very different stages, with the Reds still clawing for Wild Card positioning while the Pirates are left playing the role of spoiler and testing the resilience of a young roster. Cincinnati has shown a more consistent ability to cover ground in the standings, led by a lineup that can be streaky but explosive when locked in, with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer capable of igniting multi-run innings with both speed and power, while Jonathan India and Jake Fraley bring complementary skills to lengthen the order. The Reds’ pitching has been up and down throughout the season, but their bullpen has steadied in recent weeks, giving them a better chance to hold late leads, something they struggled with earlier in the year. Their starter in this contest will be under pressure to work deep into the game, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark where any lapse in command can turn into long innings and early damage, but if he provides five to six solid frames, the bullpen can take over with confidence. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, comes into this matchup unburdened by playoff pressure, which often makes them more dangerous, as they can play loose and aggressive while giving valuable reps to cornerstone players like Oneil Cruz, who has shown flashes of becoming a true centerpiece of their offense, and Ke’Bryan Hayes, whose defense remains elite but whose bat must stay consistent to keep innings alive.

The Pirates’ pitching staff remains a liability, particularly their bullpen, which has been prone to late-game collapses, so their best chance at stealing a win comes if their starter can keep Cincinnati’s offense quiet for as long as possible, allowing the Pirates’ bats to scratch together runs against the Reds’ arms. Defensively, Pittsburgh cannot afford mistakes, as the Reds’ aggressive baserunning puts constant pressure on opponents to execute cleanly, and extra outs will almost certainly lead to crooked numbers. From a betting perspective, Cincinnati enters as the clear moneyline favorite due to their higher stakes and home-field advantage, while the -1.5 run line offers value if their starter holds up and the offense produces against a vulnerable Pirates pitching staff. Pittsburgh, however, has shown in recent series that they can cover the +1.5 run line if they keep the game close into the later innings, and with the total likely sitting around 8.5 runs, the over has appeal if both lineups produce or the bullpens falter, though the under is possible in a lower-scoring pitcher’s duel. Ultimately, this matchup will likely be dictated by whether the Reds play disciplined, high-leverage baseball under the weight of their postseason chase or whether the Pirates, free from pressure, can turn the game chaotic and expose Cincinnati’s vulnerabilities. The Reds are rightly favored, but in a rivalry game at this stage of the season, the Pirates have just enough fight to make things uncomfortable if Cincinnati is anything less than sharp.