The September 23, 2025 matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park is set up as one of those late-season games that pits two clubs at very different stages of their competitive windows, with the Reds entering the night at 80–76 and still clinging to hopes of locking down a Wild Card spot, while the Pirates sit at 67–89, well out of contention but looking to evaluate their young roster and finish the season with momentum they can carry into 2026. For Cincinnati, the stakes could not be clearer—dropping games at home against a rebuilding divisional rival would put them in a dangerous position in the standings, so manager David Bell will be urging his team to play with playoff-level urgency from the first pitch. The Reds’ offense has been streaky but dangerous, showing the ability to generate power in bunches with Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Jonathan India driving the lineup, while role players have helped keep the chains moving with timely contact hitting. Their starting pitcher, Brady Singer, has the responsibility of keeping Pittsburgh’s lineup from gaining early confidence, which means attacking the strike zone, limiting walks, and avoiding the big inning that has often been the Pirates’ best path to surprising opponents.

On the Pittsburgh side, the Pirates’ season has been defined by inconsistency but also by flashes of promise, with younger players like Oneil Cruz showing glimpses of star potential and a roster that, while not yet ready to contend, has developed a scrappy identity that allows them to hang around longer than their record might suggest. Their starter, Johan Oviedo, must set the tone by keeping the Reds’ bats quiet early and preventing the Cincinnati crowd from getting into the game, because the energy of Great American Ball Park can be a real factor when the Reds are in playoff pursuit. The Pirates’ offense, often inconsistent, needs to take advantage of every opportunity with runners on base, because against a Reds bullpen that has improved late in the season, wasted chances will likely be the difference between an upset win and another loss. Defensively, Pittsburgh has to be sharp and avoid the kinds of miscues that give extra outs to a Cincinnati lineup that can put crooked numbers on the board quickly, while the Reds must also stay disciplined and avoid gifting free bases that let the Pirates linger into the late innings. From a betting perspective, Cincinnati is the clear favorite at home given their record and urgency, but they have not always dominated the Pirates against the spread, as Pittsburgh tends to keep games close even in losses, which creates potential value on the run line. The total, set around 8.5 runs, reflects the possibility of moderate scoring given both teams’ ability to hit for power and the fact that neither starter has been consistently dominant this season. Ultimately, this game will hinge on execution in the middle innings and bullpen performance late, with the Reds’ path to victory clear if Singer provides a quality start and their bats deliver timely hits, while the Pirates will try to play spoiler by leaning on youthful energy, opportunistic offense, and a nothing-to-lose mindset that has occasionally made them a thorn in the side of better opponents.