Mets vs Cubs Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Sep 23)

Updated: 2025-09-21T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The New York Mets head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in a late-season matchup with very different stakes: the Mets are still in wild-card contention but have cooled off sharply, while the Cubs are already postseason-bound and looking to cement momentum and home strength. With the Mets’ road record sagging and consistency wavering, every start matters, and Chicago, comfortable at home, will look to take advantage of New York’s recent struggles.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: Sep 23, 2025

Start Time: 7:40 PM EST​

Venue: Wrigley Field​

Cubs Record: (88-68)

Mets Record: (80-76)

OPENING ODDS

NYM Moneyline: -100

CHC Moneyline: -120

NYM Spread: -1.5

CHC Spread: +1.5

Over/Under: 7.5

NYM
Betting Trends

  • The Mets have been inconsistent on the road of late: in their last ten road games, they are about 5-5, showing that their ability to cover spreads away from home has been mixed. Despite their overall talent, their recent skid and losses in winnable games have made their ATS performance less reliable, especially when facing teams that are already locked in.

CHC
Betting Trends

  • The Cubs have had generally stronger performances at Wrigley, particularly late in the season when home comfort and fan energy come into play. Their ability to close out games at home and protect small leads has translated into better success covering modest spreads, especially versus teams like the Mets who are battling fatigue and pressure.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Head-to-head results between these two over recent seasons are close: the Mets have a slight edge in some stretches, but Chicago has been tough to beat at home. Totals in their matchups often lean toward the higher side, especially when both offenses are healthy, because New York still has potent bats (Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto) but is vulnerable to giving up runs, especially on the road. Betting angles might favor the Cubs −1.5 if their starter holds form, or the over if Mets’ pitching falters early. There may also be value in small run-line plays for the Mets if they stay competitive into the late innings.

NYM vs. CHC
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Soto over 6.5 Fantasy Score.

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New York vs Chicago Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 9/23/25

The September 23, 2025 matchup between the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field is a late-season contest that perfectly encapsulates the contrasting realities of two franchises, as the Cubs enter the game with postseason baseball secured and a chance to fine-tune their roster before October, while the Mets arrive under pressure, still fighting for a Wild Card berth but hampered by inconsistency, fatigue, and a road record that has proven unreliable in recent weeks. For Chicago, this game is about reinforcing the strengths that have carried them into the playoffs, including timely hitting from stars like Juan Soto and Ian Happ, steady defensive play, and a bullpen that has been considerably sharper at home, allowing manager Craig Counsell to confidently deploy relievers in high-leverage situations. Their starting pitching has also performed well at Wrigley, with hurlers capable of attacking the strike zone early and feeding off the crowd’s energy to work through the Mets’ lineup, which, while dangerous, has not been able to sustain offense for full nine-inning stretches against playoff-caliber teams. The Mets, meanwhile, arrive with urgency but also vulnerability, as their offense led by Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto remains their best hope of keeping pace, yet the issue has been capitalizing on runners in scoring position and maintaining pressure past the middle innings, with too many games slipping away late due to bullpen breakdowns or defensive lapses.

Their starting pitcher must set the tone, working deep enough into the game to protect a bullpen that has been exposed in recent road series, and avoiding the type of long, high-pitch innings that provide Chicago opportunities to flip momentum. Defensively, the Mets must play a near-perfect game, because the Cubs thrive when given extra outs and will make New York pay if errors extend innings. Offensively, the Mets must strike early and often, trying to quiet a Wrigley crowd that can swing games heavily in Chicago’s favor once the home team gains momentum. From a betting perspective, the Cubs are the clear moneyline favorite given their strong home record and the Mets’ road inconsistency, while the run line could also lean toward Chicago if their starter handles business and their offense delivers early. The over/under may tilt high, as both lineups are capable of producing crooked innings if pitchers falter, though if both starters are sharp it could remain a tight, low-scoring affair decided in the bullpens. Ultimately, the matchup tilts toward the Cubs because they hold the depth, balance, and comfort of playing at home with postseason security, but the Mets’ desperation and offensive talent give them a fighting chance if they can string together timely hitting and avoid letting their weaknesses in pitching and defense undo their effort. This is a game where New York must treat every at-bat with playoff-level intensity to keep their hopes alive, while Chicago can use the opportunity to assert themselves as one of the league’s most complete clubs heading into October.

New York Mets MLB Preview

The New York Mets head into Wrigley Field on September 23, 2025, carrying the weight of playoff desperation and the frustration of an uneven season that has left them scrambling to stay in the Wild Card race, and while their roster boasts the star power needed to win games like this, execution on the road has too often been their undoing. Offensively, the Mets still rely on their core trio of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto, who provide power and on-base ability, but the issue has been sustaining pressure through the bottom of the order and capitalizing with runners in scoring position, as too many innings have ended without payoff despite traffic on the bases. To beat a postseason-bound Cubs team at Wrigley, the Mets will need their bats to come alive early, silencing the home crowd and forcing Chicago’s pitchers into high pitch counts, because relying on late comebacks against a bullpen that has been strong at home is not a winning formula. On the mound, New York’s starter must provide length and command, attacking the strike zone and avoiding walks that extend innings for hitters like Juan Soto and Ian Happ, who have thrived in big spots all season.

The bullpen remains a sore point for the Mets, as road games have repeatedly exposed their inconsistency and left managers struggling to find reliable arms to bridge games into the ninth inning, so the key will be to limit exposure by having the starter work deep or by building a cushion offensively. Defensively, the Mets must avoid miscues, as sloppy play has been costly throughout the season and against a team like the Cubs that can quickly turn mistakes into runs, even a single error can unravel an inning. From a betting perspective, the Mets enter this game as underdogs with limited appeal on the moneyline, though their offensive talent makes them dangerous enough to consider on the run line if they can keep the game close, especially if their starter matches Chicago’s pitcher through the early innings. The formula for success is clear but demanding: Lindor and Soto must set the table with quality at-bats, Alonso has to deliver in run-producing spots, the starter must attack early and often, and the bullpen has to hold its nerve if given a lead. Anything less and the Mets risk falling into the same traps that have haunted them in recent weeks. While the odds tilt heavily toward Chicago, the Mets’ urgency and offensive ceiling give them a puncher’s chance, and if they can combine early production with steadier pitching, they could keep their postseason hopes alive and remind the league that their best version is still dangerous even in a hostile road environment.

The New York Mets head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in a late-season matchup with very different stakes: the Mets are still in wild-card contention but have cooled off sharply, while the Cubs are already postseason-bound and looking to cement momentum and home strength. With the Mets’ road record sagging and consistency wavering, every start matters, and Chicago, comfortable at home, will look to take advantage of New York’s recent struggles. New York vs Chicago AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for Sep 23. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Chicago Cubs MLB Preview

The Chicago Cubs welcome the New York Mets to Wrigley Field on September 23, 2025, with the comfort of knowing they have already secured a postseason berth and the opportunity to fine-tune their roster and maintain momentum heading into October, and while the pressure of must-win baseball sits squarely on the Mets, the Cubs will treat this game as a chance to showcase their depth, discipline, and home-field advantage. Chicago’s offense has been consistent down the stretch, powered by the all-around excellence of Juan Soto, the steady production of Ian Happ, and the balanced contributions of role players who have helped lengthen the lineup and wear down opposing pitchers with patient at-bats. At Wrigley, that offensive approach is even more effective, as the ballpark’s dimensions and crowd atmosphere create an environment where early runs often snowball into big innings, something the Cubs will look to replicate against a Mets team that has struggled to contain strong lineups on the road. On the mound, Chicago’s starter will need to set the tone by attacking the zone, keeping Mets stars like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto off balance, and limiting baserunners so that the Cubs’ defense can make plays behind him.

Chicago’s bullpen, which has been one of the club’s strengths at home, will then be tasked with holding any lead into the late innings, giving manager Craig Counsell the confidence to mix and match in high-leverage spots. Defensively, the Cubs must stay sharp and avoid gifting extra outs, as the Mets’ offense is dangerous enough to capitalize quickly if mistakes are made, but with playoff baseball around the corner, Chicago’s veterans know the importance of clean execution. From a betting perspective, the Cubs are strong favorites at home, offering reliable value on the moneyline and intriguing potential on the run line if their offense delivers early and forces New York to play from behind. The over/under could tilt high, given both lineups’ ability to produce runs, but Chicago’s recent control at Wrigley makes it just as likely that a steady pitching performance could keep totals moderate. Ultimately, the Cubs’ formula for success is clear: combine steady starting pitching with opportunistic offense and reliable bullpen work, while feeding off the energy of their fans to keep pressure squarely on the Mets. If they execute to their standard, the Cubs should walk away with another home victory that not only reaffirms their postseason readiness but also reminds opponents that Wrigley Field is not an easy place to play when October intensity begins to build.

New York vs. Chicago Prop Picks (AI)

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data on each player. In fact, anytime the Mets and Cubs play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Wrigley Field in Sep rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Soto over 6.5 Fantasy Score.

New York vs. Chicago Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over mountains of data from every past game between the Mets and Cubs and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Remi has been most watching on the unproportionally assigned emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Chicago’s strength factors between a Mets team going up against a possibly unhealthy Cubs team. In reality, the true game analytics might reflect a moderate lean against one Vegas line in particular.

Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.

Below is our current AI New York vs Chicago picks, computer picks Mets vs Cubs, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Mets Betting Trends

The Mets have been inconsistent on the road of late: in their last ten road games, they are about 5-5, showing that their ability to cover spreads away from home has been mixed. Despite their overall talent, their recent skid and losses in winnable games have made their ATS performance less reliable, especially when facing teams that are already locked in.

Cubs Betting Trends

The Cubs have had generally stronger performances at Wrigley, particularly late in the season when home comfort and fan energy come into play. Their ability to close out games at home and protect small leads has translated into better success covering modest spreads, especially versus teams like the Mets who are battling fatigue and pressure.

Mets vs. Cubs Matchup Trends

Head-to-head results between these two over recent seasons are close: the Mets have a slight edge in some stretches, but Chicago has been tough to beat at home. Totals in their matchups often lean toward the higher side, especially when both offenses are healthy, because New York still has potent bats (Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto) but is vulnerable to giving up runs, especially on the road. Betting angles might favor the Cubs −1.5 if their starter holds form, or the over if Mets’ pitching falters early. There may also be value in small run-line plays for the Mets if they stay competitive into the late innings.

New York vs. Chicago Game Info

New York vs Chicago starts on September 23, 2025 at 7:40 PM EST.

Spread: Chicago +1.5
Moneyline: New York -100, Chicago -120
Over/Under: 7.5

New York: (80-76)  |  Chicago: (88-68)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: J. Soto over 6.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

Head-to-head results between these two over recent seasons are close: the Mets have a slight edge in some stretches, but Chicago has been tough to beat at home. Totals in their matchups often lean toward the higher side, especially when both offenses are healthy, because New York still has potent bats (Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto) but is vulnerable to giving up runs, especially on the road. Betting angles might favor the Cubs −1.5 if their starter holds form, or the over if Mets’ pitching falters early. There may also be value in small run-line plays for the Mets if they stay competitive into the late innings.

NYM trend: The Mets have been inconsistent on the road of late: in their last ten road games, they are about 5-5, showing that their ability to cover spreads away from home has been mixed. Despite their overall talent, their recent skid and losses in winnable games have made their ATS performance less reliable, especially when facing teams that are already locked in.

CHC trend: The Cubs have had generally stronger performances at Wrigley, particularly late in the season when home comfort and fan energy come into play. Their ability to close out games at home and protect small leads has translated into better success covering modest spreads, especially versus teams like the Mets who are battling fatigue and pressure.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

New York vs. Chicago Odds

Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the New York vs Chicago trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

New York vs Chicago Opening Odds

NYM Moneyline: -100
CHC Moneyline: -120
NYM Spread: -1.5
CHC Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 7.5

New York vs Chicago Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 24, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
10/24/25 8PM
Dodgers
Blue Jays
-157
+129
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-143)
O 7.5 (+100)
U 7.5 (-121)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs on September 23, 2025 at Wrigley Field.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN