The September 23, 2025 matchup between the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field is a late-season contest that perfectly encapsulates the contrasting realities of two franchises, as the Cubs enter the game with postseason baseball secured and a chance to fine-tune their roster before October, while the Mets arrive under pressure, still fighting for a Wild Card berth but hampered by inconsistency, fatigue, and a road record that has proven unreliable in recent weeks. For Chicago, this game is about reinforcing the strengths that have carried them into the playoffs, including timely hitting from stars like Juan Soto and Ian Happ, steady defensive play, and a bullpen that has been considerably sharper at home, allowing manager Craig Counsell to confidently deploy relievers in high-leverage situations. Their starting pitching has also performed well at Wrigley, with hurlers capable of attacking the strike zone early and feeding off the crowd’s energy to work through the Mets’ lineup, which, while dangerous, has not been able to sustain offense for full nine-inning stretches against playoff-caliber teams. The Mets, meanwhile, arrive with urgency but also vulnerability, as their offense led by Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto remains their best hope of keeping pace, yet the issue has been capitalizing on runners in scoring position and maintaining pressure past the middle innings, with too many games slipping away late due to bullpen breakdowns or defensive lapses.

Their starting pitcher must set the tone, working deep enough into the game to protect a bullpen that has been exposed in recent road series, and avoiding the type of long, high-pitch innings that provide Chicago opportunities to flip momentum. Defensively, the Mets must play a near-perfect game, because the Cubs thrive when given extra outs and will make New York pay if errors extend innings. Offensively, the Mets must strike early and often, trying to quiet a Wrigley crowd that can swing games heavily in Chicago’s favor once the home team gains momentum. From a betting perspective, the Cubs are the clear moneyline favorite given their strong home record and the Mets’ road inconsistency, while the run line could also lean toward Chicago if their starter handles business and their offense delivers early. The over/under may tilt high, as both lineups are capable of producing crooked innings if pitchers falter, though if both starters are sharp it could remain a tight, low-scoring affair decided in the bullpens. Ultimately, the matchup tilts toward the Cubs because they hold the depth, balance, and comfort of playing at home with postseason security, but the Mets’ desperation and offensive talent give them a fighting chance if they can string together timely hitting and avoid letting their weaknesses in pitching and defense undo their effort. This is a game where New York must treat every at-bat with playoff-level intensity to keep their hopes alive, while Chicago can use the opportunity to assert themselves as one of the league’s most complete clubs heading into October.