Sox vs. Diamondbacks
Prediction, Odds & Props
Sep 06 | MLB AI Picks
Updated: 2025-09-04T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Boston Red Sox visit Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks, with Lucas Giolito taking the mound for Boston against Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt. With Boston looking to rebound after recent ups and downs and Arizona riding unexpected momentum since the trade deadline, this matchup carries both playoff implications and surprising intrigue.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Sep 06, 2025
Start Time: 8:10 PM EST
Venue: Chase Field
Diamondbacks Record: (71-71)
Sox Record: (78-64)
OPENING ODDS
BOS Moneyline: -115
ARI Moneyline: -104
BOS Spread: -1.5
ARI Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9
BOS
Betting Trends
- The Red Sox have struggled against the run line this season, posting a 33–37 ATS record.
ARI
Betting Trends
- Arizona has held a modest edge with a run line record of 15–13 this season.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Boston is listed as a slight favorite on the run line at –1.5 (+142) with an over/under set at 9 runs, suggesting expectations for a moderately high-scoring, closely contested battle hinging on one or two key innings.
BOS vs. ARI
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Carroll over 7.5 Fantasy Score.
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Boston Red vs Arizona Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 9/6/25
Against Giolito, Arizona’s path to success will be to extend at-bats, foul off tough pitches, and pressure him with baserunners, because while he has been excellent at run suppression, his workload in recent outings has opened late-inning opportunities for opponents once the bullpen takes over. Defensively, Arizona has the edge in consistency, with clean execution in the infield and strong positioning in the outfield, while Boston has been up-and-down, occasionally gifting extra outs that could be fatal in a tight game on the road. The bullpens for both teams remain question marks—Boston’s relief corps has been erratic and lacks depth beyond a couple of reliable late-inning options, while Arizona’s pen has steadied recently but still isn’t a dominant group, making starter length pivotal for both sides. From a betting perspective, Boston’s 33–37 ATS record suggests they often win without covering the spread, while Arizona’s near-even 15–13 run line record at home reflects their tendency to keep games close regardless of outcome, and with the total set around nine runs, the market expects offense to show up in spurts rather than a slugfest. The game will likely turn on whether Boston’s power bats can break through against Pfaadt before he exits or whether Arizona can outlast Giolito, chase him early, and leverage the middle innings against a shaky Red Sox bullpen. In the end, it feels like a contest destined to hinge on execution more than star power: Boston must deliver clean, timely hits with runners in scoring position and play crisp defense to avoid giving Arizona openings, while the Diamondbacks must rely on their contact-driven lineup and aggressive baserunning to pressure Boston into mistakes, making this one of those late-season battles where one or two swings could shift not just the game but the trajectory of both teams’ September outlooks.
We got ourselves a 1-run ballgame! pic.twitter.com/r69hHgJaJ3
— Red Sox (@RedSox) September 6, 2025
Boston Red Sox MLB Preview
For the Red Sox, Saturday’s matchup at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks is all about sustaining momentum in the Wild Card chase, and they turn to Lucas Giolito to provide stability on the mound and set the tone for a road win. Giolito has rediscovered the form that once made him an ace, leaning on a four-seam fastball that rides at the top of the zone and a sharp slider that generates swings and misses, and his success against Arizona will depend on efficiency—throwing first-pitch strikes, getting ahead of hitters like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, and forcing weak contact early in counts to keep his pitch count manageable. Offensively, Boston leans heavily on Rafael Devers, who has been tearing the cover off the ball since the trade deadline, driving in runs with both power and consistency, and his ability to punish mistakes in hitter’s counts could be the difference against Brandon Pfaadt, a pitcher who has historically struggled with elevated fastballs and late-inning fatigue. Supporting Devers are Trevor Story and Jarren Duran, with Story providing veteran pop and clutch hitting while Duran serves as a catalyst with his speed and knack for getting on base; together, they form the backbone of a lineup that must be patient against Pfaadt’s tendency to nibble and then ready to attack when he inevitably leaves pitches in the zone. Boston’s offense must also look to create crooked numbers rather than settle for solo shots, taking advantage of Chase Field’s spacious gaps by driving balls into alleys and running aggressively to manufacture runs against an Arizona defense that, while solid, can be pressured into mistakes under sustained rallies.
Defensively, the Red Sox know they need to be sharper than they’ve been in recent weeks, with their infield positioning and double-play execution critical in a game that could swing on a single miscue, especially given Arizona’s tendency to play small ball and force opponents into hurried throws. The bullpen is Boston’s biggest concern, as inconsistency has plagued them all season, and Alex Cora will likely push Giolito deeper into the game to bridge as cleanly as possible to the late innings, but if Giolito can hand a lead to the high-leverage arms, the Red Sox will trust their veterans to close the door. From a betting standpoint, Boston’s 33–37 record against the run line underscores how often they win by narrow margins rather than blowouts, so their goal here is to create separation early and avoid putting themselves in position where one swing in the late innings can flip the outcome. For the Red Sox, the formula is simple but not easy: Giolito must dominate with command and length, Devers and the middle of the order must cash in on Pfaadt’s mistakes, and the defense must play clean, because in a tightly contested race and on the road in September, there’s no margin for gifting opportunities to an opponent looking to play spoiler. If they execute, Boston not only strengthens their grip on a playoff spot but also reaffirms that they have the pitching, power, and grit to handle the pressure of meaningful September baseball.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Preview
For the Diamondbacks, Saturday’s September 6 matchup against the Red Sox at Chase Field is an opportunity to play spoiler while continuing to prove that their young roster can compete with playoff-caliber opponents, and the assignment falls to Brandon Pfaadt, a right-hander who has shown flashes of brilliance but whose career ERA north of 5.00 illustrates just how volatile he can be. Pfaadt’s success hinges on his ability to command his fastball and use his slider and changeup to keep hitters like Rafael Devers and Trevor Story from sitting on pitches in the middle of the zone, because when he leaves balls up, power bats feast, and Boston’s lineup is built to punish mistakes. Arizona’s offense will look to back him by leaning on the athleticism and consistency of Corbin Carroll, who remains their spark plug with both power and speed, and Ketel Marte, whose switch-hitting versatility and knack for timely hits provide depth and balance in the order. The Diamondbacks are not a team that overwhelms with power, but they thrive on stringing together base hits, taking extra bases in Chase Field’s cavernous outfield, and forcing opposing defenses to execute perfectly, and that blueprint fits perfectly against a Red Sox defense that has been inconsistent this season.
Defensively, Arizona prides itself on efficiency, with solid infield play and smart outfield positioning, and in a game projected to be decided by small margins, their ability to convert routine plays and avoid giving Boston extra outs will be vital. Manager Torey Lovullo has also shown a knack for aggressive bullpen management, often pulling Pfaadt early if signs of trouble emerge, and while the bullpen has been far from elite, it has settled in recent weeks with defined roles that allow relievers to attack matchups more confidently. Offensively, Arizona must focus on pressuring Giolito early, as he has been sharp since returning from surgery but can be vulnerable if forced into long innings, and by fouling off pitches, drawing walks, and creating traffic, the Diamondbacks can expose Boston’s bullpen by the middle innings. The home crowd at Chase Field adds another layer, providing energy to a team that has been playing looser and freer since the deadline, and that atmosphere can fuel the aggressive baserunning and high-energy play Arizona relies on to swing close games in its favor. From a betting perspective, Arizona’s 15–13 record against the run line at home reflects their ability to keep games close regardless of outcome, and in a contest with a total set around nine runs, their chances of covering may depend on executing in situational hitting spots and capitalizing on any bullpen cracks Boston shows. For the Diamondbacks, the formula is clear: Pfaadt must give them at least five steady innings, Carroll and Marte must set the table at the top of the order, and the bullpen must hold its nerve in the late innings. If they check those boxes, Arizona not only has the chance to frustrate a playoff hopeful but also to showcase the growth of their roster, reminding everyone that even in a transitional year, they are capable of making noise when given the stage.
Wicked good win. pic.twitter.com/2STbmpvWCP
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 6, 2025
Boston Red vs. Arizona Prop Picks (AI)
Boston Red vs. Arizona Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over mountains of data from every simulation between the Sox and Diamondbacks and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to examine the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most fixated on the trending weight human bettors tend to put on Arizona’s strength factors between a Sox team going up against a possibly tired Diamondbacks team. We’ve found the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line in particular.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Boston Red vs Arizona picks, computer picks Sox vs Diamondbacks, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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MLB | 10/1 | SD@CHC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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MLB | 10/1 | SD@CHC | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 4 |
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MLB | 10/1 | CIN@LAD | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 3 |
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MLB | 10/1 | CIN@LAD | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 2 |
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MLB | 10/1 | DET@CLE | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 2 |
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MLB | 10/1 | DET@CLE | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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MLB | 10/1 | BOS@NYY | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 1 |
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MLB | 10/1 | CIN@LAD | GET FREE PICK NOW | 1 | – | |
MLB | 10/1 | BOS@NYY | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 0 |
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MLB | 10/1 | BOS@NYY | GET FREE PICK NOW | 0 | – |
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Sox Betting Trends
The Red Sox have struggled against the run line this season, posting a 33–37 ATS record.
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
Arizona has held a modest edge with a run line record of 15–13 this season.
Sox vs. Diamondbacks Matchup Trends
Boston is listed as a slight favorite on the run line at –1.5 (+142) with an over/under set at 9 runs, suggesting expectations for a moderately high-scoring, closely contested battle hinging on one or two key innings.
Boston Red vs. Arizona Game Info
What time does Boston Red vs Arizona start on September 06, 2025?
Boston Red vs Arizona starts on September 06, 2025 at 8:10 PM EST.
Where is Boston Red vs Arizona being played?
Venue: Chase Field.
What are the opening odds for Boston Red vs Arizona?
Spread: Arizona +1.5
Moneyline: Boston Red -115, Arizona -104
Over/Under: 9
What are the records for Boston Red vs Arizona?
Boston Red: (78-64) | Arizona: (71-71)
What is the AI best bet for Boston Red vs Arizona?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: C. Carroll over 7.5 Fantasy Score.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Boston Red vs Arizona trending bets?
Boston is listed as a slight favorite on the run line at –1.5 (+142) with an over/under set at 9 runs, suggesting expectations for a moderately high-scoring, closely contested battle hinging on one or two key innings.
What are Boston Red trending bets?
BOS trend: The Red Sox have struggled against the run line this season, posting a 33–37 ATS record.
What are Arizona trending bets?
ARI trend: Arizona has held a modest edge with a run line record of 15–13 this season.
Where can I find AI Picks for Boston Red vs Arizona?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Boston Red vs. Arizona Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each team. In fact, anytime the Boston Red vs Arizona trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude almost always follow normal, predictable betting trends.
Boston Red vs Arizona Opening Odds
BOS Moneyline:
-115 ARI Moneyline: -104
BOS Spread: -1.5
ARI Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 9
Boston Red vs Arizona Live Odds
Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
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Oct 2, 2025 3:08PM EDT
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
10/2/25 3:08PM
Tigers
Guardians
|
–
–
|
+100
-120
|
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-215)
|
O 7 (-105)
U 7 (-115)
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Oct 2, 2025 5:08PM EDT
San Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs
10/2/25 5:08PM
Padres
Cubs
|
–
–
|
+100
-118
|
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-210)
|
O 7.5 (-110)
U 7.5 (-110)
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Oct 2, 2025 8:08PM EDT
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
10/2/25 8:08PM
Red Sox
Yankees
|
–
–
|
+136
-162
|
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+130)
|
O 7.5 (-120)
U 7.5 (-102)
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Oct 4, 2025 2:30PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
10/4/25 2:30PM
Dodgers
Phillies
|
–
–
|
+110
-130
|
pk
pk
|
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Oct 4, 2025 5:09PM EDT
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
10/4/25 5:09PM
Dodgers
Phillies
|
–
–
|
+108
-126
|
pk
pk
|
O 7 (-135)
U 7 (+115)
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on September 06, 2025 at Chase Field.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
ARI@SD | SD -131 | 57.3% | 4 | WIN |
DET@BOS | BOS -115 | 56.4% | 5 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |
CHC@SF | CHC -105 | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
NYY@CHW | RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
PHI@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 55.6% | 4 | LOSS |
LAA@TEX | LOGAN OHOPPE OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
KC@CHW | KC -109 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
SD@SEA | DYLAN CEASE OVER 16.5 OUTS | 53.9% | 3 | LOSS |
SD@SEA | UNDER 8.5 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
MIN@TOR | JOE RYAN UNDER 2.5 EARNED RUNS | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
SF@MIL | MIL +100 | 54.0% | 6 | LOSS |
TOR@MIA | MIA +1.5 | 62.0% | 6 | WIN |
CHC@LAA | OVER 9.5 | 54.9% | 4 | LOSS |
BOS@NYY | CARLOS RODON UNDER 4.5 HITS ALLOWED | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
KC@DET | DET -115 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
CHC@LAA | LAA +1.5 | 57.6% | 5 | LOSS |