Thursday’s NL West clash between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium closes out a heated four-game series between two rivals with contrasting trajectories yet equally high stakes. The Dodgers, currently sitting at 43–29, have rattled off five straight wins and look poised to extend their divisional dominance, while the Padres—despite a 4–10 stretch since early June—remain a dangerous squad capable of spoiling any opponent’s momentum. The Dodgers have leaned on depth, versatility, and bullpen excellence to navigate injuries in their starting rotation, recently employing a creative mix of openers and piggyback roles, including Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound in relief. Will Smith’s walk-off homer in Wednesday’s game capped a thrilling comeback and further emphasized the Dodgers’ clutch gene, as they’ve gone 9–1 when favored by –251 or more this season. Offensively, L.A.’s lineup remains one of the most feared in baseball, featuring Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Ohtani, each capable of delivering game-changing swings at any moment. On the other side, San Diego’s 2025 campaign has been marred by inconsistency, but their recent 5–0 run line cover streak speaks to their resilience and ability to stay competitive in close games. Their offense is anchored by veterans Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts, all of whom have shown flashes of elite form even as the team struggles in the win column.

Thursday’s projected starter for San Diego is Dylan Cease, whose electric stuff has produced high strikeout totals but also bouts of command issues that could spell trouble against a patient Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers may counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Dustin May depending on bullpen needs, though both arms are capable of stifling even the best lineups when on their game. The Over/Under for this matchup is set at 9, reflecting a blend of explosive offensive potential and increasingly stingy pitching performances from both sides, particularly with the Under hitting in multiple games this series already. The Dodgers open as heavy favorites around –251 on the moneyline and –1.5 on the run line, which may not reflect how tight these games have been, especially considering San Diego’s recent ability to keep scores close. Expect another tense, strategic battle where early-inning tempo and bullpen matchups play a decisive role. The Dodgers have the momentum, home-field edge, and superior depth, but the Padres have proven they can hang around long enough to flip games late. If Cease can give them six solid innings and their core bats produce with runners in scoring position, the Padres could very well threaten to steal the finale. However, if the Dodgers’ relentless offense continues to grind down starters and deliver in the clutch, they are well-positioned to finish the sweep and put more daylight between themselves and their Southern California rivals. Either way, Thursday’s contest promises playoff-level tension and fireworks in what has quietly become one of the league’s most compelling rivalries.