The May 23, 2025 matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park is shaping up to be a pivotal National League Central showdown between two teams with very different recent trajectories, as the first-place Cubs continue to surge while the fourth-place Reds scramble to find footing in a tightly contested division. The Cubs enter the game with a 29–20 record and winners of seven of their last ten games, riding a potent wave of offense that currently leads Major League Baseball with 5.86 runs per game, powered by the hot bats of Seiya Suzuki (.333 batting average), Cody Bellinger, and a deep lineup that has consistently delivered in both clutch and high-leverage situations. Matthew Boyd, who’s posted a 4–2 record and a 2.98 ERA, gets the nod for Chicago and brings a level of stability to the mound that has been a key factor in their recent success, complementing a bullpen that has proven reliable in protecting leads late in games and executing manager Craig Counsell’s strategic plans to near perfection. The Cubs’ defensive play has also been clean and effective, with few errors and solid infield play that supports both their pitchers and their aggressive run prevention philosophy. On the other hand, the Reds come into this divisional battle sitting at 22–24, 4.5 games behind the Cubs, and have been playing .500 ball over their last ten contests while grappling with a lack of offensive consistency and issues in the bullpen that have cost them multiple late-inning leads.

Although Hunter Greene will take the mound with an impressive 4–2 record and a 2.36 ERA, giving Cincinnati a strong chance to contain the Cubs’ offense, the pressure will be on the Reds’ lineup to produce early runs and avoid falling behind, especially given their .232 team batting average over the last 10 games. The Reds have seen Elly De La Cruz emerge as their most dangerous offensive weapon, leading the team with 8 home runs and 31 RBIs, but the supporting cast has failed to produce consistently, leaving too much weight on a handful of key players. Defensively, Cincinnati has been spotty, and their bullpen’s inconsistency has been one of the team’s biggest liabilities, something that could again prove costly against a Cubs offense that capitalizes on extended innings and defensive miscues. From a betting perspective, both teams are 5–5 ATS over their last ten games, but Chicago holds a slight edge with more consistent scoring, better starting pitching depth, and superior bullpen reliability. With divisional implications on the line and the Cubs looking to assert their dominance while the Reds hope to claw back into contention, this game carries added significance as the first in a series that could swing the NL Central standings in the days ahead. If Chicago continues to produce offensively and Boyd delivers a quality start, the Cubs are in prime position to extend their lead, while Cincinnati will need to rely on Greene’s elite stuff and a sharp defensive performance to pull off a statement win and remind the division that they remain a dangerous team despite recent struggles.