Guardians vs Reds Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (May 18)

Updated: 2025-05-16T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props

The Cleveland Guardians (25–20) and Cincinnati Reds (23–24) conclude their three-game Ohio Cup series on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Great American Ball Park. With the Reds having won the first two games, they aim for a sweep, while the Guardians look to salvage the finale.

Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

AI Sports Betting Algorithm Remi

GAME INFO

Date: May 18, 2025

Start Time: 1:40 PM EST​

Venue: Great American Ball Park​

Reds Record: (23-24)

Guardians Record: (25-20)

OPENING ODDS

CLE Moneyline: +106

CIN Moneyline: -125

CLE Spread: +1.5

CIN Spread: -1.5

Over/Under: 9

CLE
Betting Trends

  • The Guardians have covered the spread in 22 of their 43 games this season, indicating a 51.2% cover rate.

CIN
Betting Trends

  • The Reds have covered the spread in 24 of their 45 games this season, reflecting a 53.3% cover rate.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the Guardians’ 45 games and in 13 of the Reds’ 24 home games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring contests for both teams.

CLE vs. CIN
Best Prop Bet

  • Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Manzardo over 0.5 Total Bases.

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Cleveland vs Cincinnati Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 5/18/25

The Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds square off in the finale of their three-game Ohio Cup series on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, with the Reds aiming for a series sweep and a return to .500, while the Guardians look to snap a two-game slide and salvage the finale. Cincinnati has controlled the series so far with back-to-back wins, taking Friday’s opener 5–4 and following it with a well-executed 4–1 victory on Saturday behind timely hitting, clean defense, and strong pitching. Now 23–24, the Reds have won five of their last six games, riding a wave of improved starting pitching and consistent performances from Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl, who have set the tone at the top of the order with a mix of speed, patience, and aggressiveness. Sunday’s game features a promising pitching matchup as Cincinnati hands the ball to left-hander Andrew Abbott, who enters the game 2–0 with a stellar 2.10 ERA, having limited opposing hitters to a .185 batting average over 30 innings while striking out 38. The Guardians will counter with right-hander Luis Ortiz, who comes in with a 2–4 record and 4.78 ERA, hoping to rebound after a string of inconsistent starts and provide much-needed length after back-to-back outings where Cleveland’s bullpen has been forced into heavy usage.

Offensively, Cleveland has been quiet through the first two games, scoring just five combined runs, despite strong individual performances from José Ramírez (.295 AVG, .510 SLG) and Steven Kwan (.325 AVG), who have done their part to get on base and extend innings. However, the rest of the Guardians’ lineup has struggled to cash in those opportunities, and the team ranks just 23rd in MLB in both batting average (.232) and on-base percentage (.306), contributing to their current slide. Cleveland’s defense remains sharp and has helped limit damage in key moments, but the lack of run support has put a strain on the pitching staff and left little room for error. The Reds, meanwhile, have received boosts from up and down their lineup, with Gavin Lux and Jose Trevino emerging as consistent contact hitters who keep innings alive, and the defense has held strong behind Abbott and the bullpen, which has done well to close out leads over the last week. A sweep would not only push Cincinnati to 24–24 but give them serious momentum heading into a critical stretch of divisional games, while Cleveland needs a win to avoid losing ground in a competitive AL Central and to reestablish the rhythm that had them pushing 30 wins just days ago. For both teams, this finale offers more than just bragging rights—it’s a chance to build momentum, test young arms in pressure spots, and stake an early claim in the regional rivalry that’s often more intense than records alone would suggest. With first pitch set for 1:40 PM ET, expect both clubs to come out with urgency in a game that may hinge on whether the Guardians can finally string together timely hits or if the Reds’ improved pitching and scrappy offense can seal another tight win at home.

Cleveland Guardians MLB Preview

The Cleveland Guardians enter Sunday’s finale at Great American Ball Park with a 25–20 record and a growing sense of urgency as they attempt to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of their in-state rivals, the Cincinnati Reds. After dropping Friday’s game 5–4 and falling short again in Saturday’s 4–1 loss, the Guardians’ offense has gone cold at the wrong time, producing just five total runs across the first two games despite solid performances from their usual catalysts José Ramírez and Steven Kwan. Ramírez continues to anchor the middle of the order with a .295 average and .510 slugging percentage, while Kwan remains one of the toughest outs in baseball with a .325 batting average and exceptional plate discipline. But outside of those two, Cleveland’s lineup has struggled to produce runs, and it has hurt them in recent games as the team now ranks 23rd in MLB in both batting average (.232) and on-base percentage (.306), numbers that reflect their growing inconsistency with runners in scoring position. On the mound Sunday, Luis Ortiz will get the start as he looks to shake off an uneven start to the season; the right-hander enters with a 2–4 record and 4.78 ERA, having allowed 23 earned runs over 43.1 innings pitched. Ortiz has shown flashes of effectiveness with decent velocity and command when he keeps the ball low in the zone, but he’s also been hurt by high pitch counts and too many baserunners, which have often left Cleveland’s bullpen taxed.

The Guardians have defended well behind their pitchers all season, and their defensive metrics remain above average, but when the bats go quiet, the pressure to be perfect in the field and on the mound can be overwhelming. With the Reds sending out Andrew Abbott and swinging hot bats at the top of their lineup, the Guardians will need Ortiz to keep the game close early and hope for some timely hits from the middle of the order to avoid a second straight series loss. Manager Stephen Vogt may look to shuffle the bottom of the lineup or emphasize more aggressive base running to jumpstart the offense, and the Guardians know that a win on Sunday would be critical not only to avoid a sweep but to keep pace in a competitive AL Central race where the Tigers have started to separate from the pack. To turn the tide, Cleveland must execute in scoring situations, protect Ortiz with early run support, and play mistake-free baseball against a Cincinnati team that has capitalized on every opportunity so far in the series. If they can finally string together a few big innings and Ortiz can keep Elly De La Cruz and company off the bases, the Guardians still have the talent to close the series on a positive note and take momentum back into their next stretch of games.

The Cleveland Guardians (25–20) and Cincinnati Reds (23–24) conclude their three-game Ohio Cup series on Sunday, May 18, 2025, at Great American Ball Park. With the Reds having won the first two games, they aim for a sweep, while the Guardians look to salvage the finale. Cleveland vs Cincinnati AI Prediction: Free MLB Betting Insights for May 18. Credit USA TODAY/IMAGN

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN

Cincinnati Reds MLB Preview

The Cincinnati Reds enter Sunday’s finale of the Ohio Cup series with momentum firmly on their side after back-to-back wins over the Guardians pushed their record to 23–24 and positioned them one win away from a sweep and a return to the .500 mark. Friday’s 5–4 victory and Saturday’s 4–1 win highlighted the Reds’ growing strength in both starting pitching and timely offense, with their young core steadily coming into form behind solid performances from Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Gavin Lux. De La Cruz has been a catalyst at the top of the lineup with a .250 average and a disruptive presence on the basepaths, while Friedl (.274 AVG, .359 OBP) and Lux (.276 AVG, .370 OBP) have excelled at keeping innings alive and applying pressure with their contact-driven approach. Behind the plate, Jose Trevino continues to thrive in his new environment, slashing .307 with a .523 slugging percentage, adding power and leadership to a balanced lineup that’s starting to click in mid-May. On the mound for Sunday’s finale is left-hander Andrew Abbott, who brings a perfect 2–0 record and a sparkling 2.10 ERA into his fifth start of the season, having held opponents to a .185 batting average and racked up 38 strikeouts in just 30 innings of work. Abbott has emerged as one of the Reds’ most reliable starters, with an ability to control the zone, get ahead in counts, and avoid big innings, all of which have helped Cincinnati stay competitive in tight games.

The Reds’ defense has also been a key component in their recent surge, committing few errors and showing increased cohesion, especially in middle-infield play and outfield tracking. The bullpen has held its own when called upon, though Abbott has done well to limit their exposure by going deeper into games and giving manager David Bell more control over late-game matchups. With the Guardians struggling to produce offense outside of José Ramírez and Steven Kwan, the Reds are in position to stay aggressive early, get Abbott an early lead, and pressure Cleveland’s pitching staff once again with aggressive base running and situational hitting. A win on Sunday would not only give the Reds the sweep but also serve as a tone-setter as they look to climb the NL Central standings in a division still wide open beneath the top contenders. If Abbott delivers another strong outing and the offense continues to build off its recent rhythm, the Reds have all the tools to secure their sixth win in seven games and continue trending upward as one of the National League’s more dangerous under-the-radar clubs.

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati Prop Picks (AI)

Remi is pouring through mountains of stats on each player. In fact, anytime the Guardians and Reds play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Great American Ball Park in May seemingly never follow normal, predictable patterns.
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Manzardo over 0.5 Total Bases.

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati Prediction (AI)

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Remi, our AI sports wizard, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Guardians and Reds and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most focused on the unproportionally assigned weight human bettors tend to put on Cincinnati’s strength factors between a Guardians team going up against a possibly rested Reds team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.

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Below is our current AI Cleveland vs Cincinnati picks, computer picks Guardians vs Reds, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.

DATE GAME LEAN %WIN UNITS LEVEL
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Guardians Betting Trends

The Guardians have covered the spread in 22 of their 43 games this season, indicating a 51.2% cover rate.

Reds Betting Trends

The Reds have covered the spread in 24 of their 45 games this season, reflecting a 53.3% cover rate.

Guardians vs. Reds Matchup Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the Guardians’ 45 games and in 13 of the Reds’ 24 home games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring contests for both teams.

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati Game Info

Cleveland vs Cincinnati starts on May 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM EST.

Venue: Great American Ball Park.

Spread: Cincinnati -1.5
Moneyline: Cleveland +106, Cincinnati -125
Over/Under: 9

Cleveland: (25-20)  |  Cincinnati: (23-24)

Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: K. Manzardo over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.

The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the Guardians’ 45 games and in 13 of the Reds’ 24 home games, suggesting a trend toward lower-scoring contests for both teams.

CLE trend: The Guardians have covered the spread in 22 of their 43 games this season, indicating a 51.2% cover rate.

CIN trend: The Reds have covered the spread in 24 of their 45 games this season, reflecting a 53.3% cover rate.

See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati Odds

AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Cleveland vs Cincinnati trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme hostile environments can often follow normal, predictable patterns.

Cleveland vs Cincinnati Opening Odds

CLE Moneyline: +106
CIN Moneyline: -125
CLE Spread: +1.5
CIN Spread: -1.5
Over/Under: 9

Cleveland vs Cincinnati Live Odds

Games PTS ML SPR O/U
Oct 19, 2025 8:04PM EDT
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
10/19/25 8:04PM
Mariners
Blue Jays
+108
-130
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+165)
O 7.5 (-121)
U 7.5 (-106)

MLB Past Picks

Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.

This preview covers Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds on May 18, 2025 at Great American Ball Park.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.

Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.

    LEAN     %WIN     UNITS RESULT
TOR@SEA OVER 7 54.9% 3 WIN
LAD@MIL UNDER 7.5 56.6% 6 WIN
TOR@NYY OVER 8 54.9% 4 WIN
TOR@NYY CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED 53.3% 3 WIN
NYY@TOR OVER 7.5 54.8% 2 WIN
LAD@PHI OVER 7 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC CHC -109 53.8% 3 WIN
SD@CHC OVER 7.5 54.5% 4 LOSS
SD@CHC CHC -111 54.8% 4 LOSS
CIN@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES 53.5% 3 WIN
BOS@NYY OVER 7 53.8% 3 LOSS
CIN@LAD ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES 54.4% 4 LOSS
ARI@SD SD -131 57.3% 4 WIN
DET@BOS BOS -115 56.4% 5 WIN
NYM@CHC NYM -110 54.1% 3 WIN
HOU@ATH ATH +118 50.8% 4 WIN
NYM@CHC OVER 7 54.5% 3 WIN
STL@SF OVER 7.5 55.9% 5 LOSS
KC@LAA TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.4% 4 WIN
MIL@SD UNDER 9 54.7% 4 WIN
MIA@PHI KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 53.3% 3 WIN
WAS@NYM OVER 8.5 56.1% 6 LOSS
LAA@COL COL +108 50.5% 3 WIN
TOR@KC UNDER 9 54.7% 4 LOSS
SEA@KC KC +1.5 62.3% 5 LOSS
NYY@MIN OVER 9 55.1% 4 WIN
MIA@COL OVER 10.5 55.0% 4 WIN
MIA@COL AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS 54.3% 4 WIN
SEA@KC BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES 54.4% 4 LOSS
PHI@LAD LAD -113 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYY@BOS OVER 7.5 54.3% 3 WIN
KC@PHI PHI -130 58.3% 4 WIN
LAD@SF OVER 7.5 54.7% 4 LOSS
NYM@PHI PHI -122 55.6% 4 WIN
KC@CLE KC -104 52.0% 3 WIN
CIN@SD JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS 53.1% 3 WIN
WAS@MIA MIA -123 55.2% 4 LOSS
LAA@KC UNDER 9.5 54.9% 3 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9 54.2% 4 WIN
SF@COL UNDER 11.5 56.4% 6 LOSS
SF@COL RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES 56.1% 6 WIN
MIA@WAS WAS -110 54.4% 4 WIN
NYM@DET OVER 8.5 54.5% 4 WIN
TEX@ARI UNDER 9.5 56.4% 6 WIN
TEX@ARI ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES 54.1% 4 LOSS
ATL@CHC CHC -116 55.1% 3 WIN
PHI@MIL OVER 8.5 55.0% 3 WIN
ARI@LAD SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES 54.2% 4 WIN
SEA@CLE CLE +1.5 57.2% 3 WIN
CHC@SF CHC -105 54.1% 4 LOSS
NYY@CHW RYAN MCMAHON OVER 0.5 BASES 54.1% 4 WIN