The Pittsburgh Pirates enter their May 14, 2025 matchup against the New York Mets desperate to avoid a sweep and snap out of a brutal stretch that has seen them drop eight of their last ten games, including the first two in this series, as they continue to tumble to the bottom of the National League standings with a 14–28 record that reflects both offensive inconsistency and pitching woes. The Pirates have been one of the least reliable teams against the spread in recent weeks, going 2–8 ATS in their last 10 games, and their struggles have been pronounced on the road, where they’ve been outmatched in nearly every department—failing to produce timely hits, committing defensive miscues, and watching games slip away in the later innings due to bullpen inefficiency. Offensively, the Pirates have been unable to generate sustained pressure, batting just .223 as a team, and while players like Oneil Cruz have provided occasional bursts of power—leading the team with eight home runs—and Bryan Reynolds continues to grind out at-bats with 20 RBIs, the overall lack of depth and discipline in the lineup has left the team vulnerable to long scoring droughts. The lack of production from the middle and bottom of the order has made it easy for opposing pitchers to pitch around Cruz and Reynolds, and with few players reaching base consistently, Pittsburgh has struggled to manufacture runs through anything other than solo home runs or isolated rallies.

On the mound, the Pirates haven’t fared much better, as inconsistent starting pitching has forced the bullpen into high-leverage innings far too often, resulting in blown leads or games that spiral out of reach quickly. The starting rotation, while occasionally flashing potential, has failed to string together quality outings, and unless someone steps up to deliver a shutdown performance, the team will remain stuck in this cycle of early deficits and reactive baseball. Against a Mets team that is 16–4 at home and one of the hottest clubs in the National League, the margin for error is razor-thin, and the Pirates will need a near-flawless effort to escape with a win in the series finale. That means early offense, a clean defensive effort, and a starter who can go at least six innings while limiting the damage from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, both of whom have punished mistakes throughout the series. Pittsburgh’s pathway to victory lies in capitalizing on any early opportunities—whether through aggressive baserunning, situational hitting, or defensive lapses by the Mets—and finding a way to hold a lead, something they’ve rarely done successfully this season. This game isn’t just about the standings anymore—it’s about showing resilience and beginning the process of digging out of the hole before the season slips too far out of reach. A win at Citi Field wouldn’t erase the last month of frustration, but it could at least signal to the clubhouse and fan base that the team hasn’t quit and is still capable of playing quality baseball against top-tier opponents.