The New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off on May 13, 2025, at Citi Field in a National League showdown between two teams heading in distinctly opposite directions, with the Mets surging atop the NL East at 27-15 and the Pirates trying to dig themselves out of a deep hole with a 14-28 record. The Mets have been one of the most balanced and consistent teams in the National League, powered by a dominant pitching staff that boasts a collective ERA of just 2.38—one of the best marks in the league—and an offense that has produced timely runs while executing smart base running and disciplined at-bats. Kodai Senga will take the mound for the Mets, entering the matchup with a stellar 4-2 record and a 1.16 ERA, and he’s coming off another lights-out performance that solidified his reputation as one of the most reliable arms in the rotation, regularly keeping hitters off balance with his signature splitter and deceptive command. Offensively, the Mets have been anchored by the consistent production of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, who continue to drive in runs and keep pressure on opposing starters early in games, while Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte have contributed table-setting and extra-base power that has helped stretch the lineup. Though the Mets are just 3-4 as moneyline favorites over their last 10 games, those numbers reflect more variance than vulnerability, and their recent trend of unders (6 of their last 8 games have gone under the total) suggests they are winning with pitching and defense rather than high-scoring affairs.

The Pirates, by contrast, have struggled mightily to find consistency in nearly every phase of the game, and their 14-28 record underscores a season plagued by poor situational hitting, shaky defense, and a pitching staff that has been unable to hold down quality lineups for long stretches. Mitch Keller, who will start for Pittsburgh, enters the game with a 1-4 record and a 4.40 ERA and has been uneven through the first six weeks of the season, showing flashes of ace potential but often undone by high pitch counts and costly innings that spiral beyond his control. The Pirates have been particularly poor in the early stages of games, hitting the First Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 contests, a sign of their inability to generate offense or get out to early leads—a critical flaw against a team like the Mets that thrives when playing from ahead. Injuries have thinned the Pirates’ depth both on the mound and in the lineup, forcing manager Derek Shelton to shuffle roles and rely on young players who haven’t yet delivered at the level needed to compete in a tough National League. To have any chance at pulling off an upset, the Pirates will need a standout performance from Keller and unexpected offensive contributions throughout the order, especially with Senga on the hill and the Mets bullpen poised to lock things down late. Given the disparity in recent form, pitching consistency, and offensive execution, this game heavily favors the Mets on paper, though the unpredictable nature of baseball always leaves a window open for an upset if the Pirates can finally put together a clean, complete game.