The San Francisco Giants and the Chicago Cubs will close out their three-game series at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, in what promises to be a tightly contested matchup between two clubs riding strong starts to the season, both sitting at 22–14. While the Cubs currently hold a 2–1 series lead, both teams have alternated strong pitching and explosive offense throughout, setting up a compelling rubber match that could be decided by the narrowest of margins. The Giants come into the finale with a slightly better pitching profile, featuring a 3.44 team ERA and a WHIP of 1.23, and will hand the ball to lefty Robbie Ray, who has been excellent thus far with a 4–0 record, 3.05 ERA, and a stingy .201 opponent batting average; Ray’s ability to neutralize left-handed power hitters could be a key to the game, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Wrigley. On the mound for the Cubs is Ben Brown, who has shown flashes of potential but comes in with a 4.88 ERA and a .295 opponent batting average, signaling that command and pitch location remain works in progress, particularly against aggressive lineups like San Francisco’s. Offensively, the Giants have been led by the consistent Jung Hoo Lee, who’s batting .303 and playing great outfield defense, along with Wilmer Flores, who’s delivered clutch power with seven home runs and 31 RBIs—his right-handed bat should be key in exploiting Brown’s struggles against righties. The Cubs counter with an offense that has been even more potent, averaging 5.5 runs per game, led by Kyle Tucker, who’s batting .290 with nine home runs, and catcher Carson Kelly, who’s delivered a red-hot .361 average along with eight long balls, giving Chicago serious depth in the heart of the order.

The Cubs have also been effective at home and come into the game with a strong 55.6% run line cover rate (20 out of 36 games), compared to San Francisco’s 47.2% rate; perhaps more telling is the Cubs’ +1.8 run line differential, which shows their ability to win convincingly when they do win, while the Giants’ +0.4 differential suggests they often play close, grind-it-out contests. Defense has been solid for both teams, but bullpen usage and late-inning execution may tilt the balance—Chicago’s late arms have had more consistency and could prove vital if Brown exits early, while the Giants will hope Ray can give them six-plus innings to bridge to their more reliable relievers. From a betting angle, the Cubs have been slightly more profitable, especially at home, and their offensive depth could be the deciding factor if they can get Ray’s pitch count up early. The Giants, meanwhile, will need to rely on their pitching edge, timely hits from their middle-order bats, and clean defense to escape with a win in a game that projects as a classic pitcher-versus-offense showdown. With both teams aiming to strengthen their foothold in competitive divisions, this series finale could provide a valuable momentum swing heading into the weekend, and fans can expect a well-contested game with playoff-level energy despite it being just early May.