The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers close out their three-game interleague series on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at American Family Field in a matchup that carries significance for both clubs as they look to assert consistency amid uneven starts to the season. Houston enters the contest with a 17–15 record, quietly climbing above .500 behind improved offensive output and gradually stabilizing pitching, while Milwaukee sits at 16–18, trying to find its footing after a string of inconsistent performances that have seen them lose key games late. Framber Valdez is expected to start for the Astros, and though his 1–4 win-loss record may not impress on paper, his 4.39 ERA and even better 3.76 FIP suggest he’s been victimized by poor run support and perhaps some bad luck—he’s still inducing ground balls at an elite rate and working efficiently through lineups. On the opposite side, Milwaukee sends Quinn Priester to the hill, a young right-hander who has struggled to find command and rhythm, entering with a 5.79 ERA and a 5.33 FIP, numbers that reflect both contact issues and an inability to finish at-bats in high-leverage moments. Offensively, Houston has received a much-needed boost from Jake Meyers, who’s quietly hitting above .300, and Jeremy Peña, who continues to be a steady bat in the middle infield, hitting .281 while playing strong defense. While the Astros have lacked their usual home run barrage from past seasons, they’ve begun to produce more runs through contact, base running, and timely situational hitting.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, has seen a strong start from Brice Turang, batting .315, and Sal Frelick, who adds a .297 average, but they haven’t been able to string together sustained offensive success—too often leaving runners stranded or failing to produce in the late innings when the game is tight. Both bullpens have been taxed lately, but Houston’s late-game arms have generally held up better, especially when protecting one- or two-run leads. Betting trends add further intrigue: the Astros have covered the run line in four of their last six games and have historically performed well in the latter games of road series. Milwaukee has failed to cover in three of their last five, and games between these two teams have leaned toward lower scores, with the total going UNDER in seven of their last ten meetings—a trend supported by the presence of Valdez and the overall inconsistent offenses. The Brewers need a bounce-back performance to salvage the series and prevent a sweep, but the Astros appear to have the edge on the mound and at the plate, especially if they can continue capitalizing on Priester’s tendency to fall behind in counts. For Houston, a win would not only extend their momentum but also help solidify their place in a competitive AL West, while Milwaukee hopes home-field urgency will translate into cleaner execution and enough offense to avoid another frustrating loss. All signs point to a competitive, lower-scoring battle with Houston entering as slight favorites to complete the sweep.