The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds will face off in the rubber match of their three-game series on Sunday, May 4, 2025, at Great American Ball Park in a matchup that features two teams trending in opposite directions but still closely aligned in terms of competitive fire and overall output. The Nationals enter the contest with a 15-19 record and a surprising edge in competitiveness considering preseason expectations, having gone 17-14 against the spread and displaying flashes of offensive promise despite pitching inconsistencies. Their ability to keep games close and occasionally steal wins on the backs of young talents like James Wood, who has belted 9 home runs with 21 RBIs, and Nathaniel Lowe, who leads the team in RBIs with 27, has kept them from sinking into irrelevance early. Washington’s offense averages 4.2 runs per game and has found ways to stay scrappy and opportunistic, although their pitching, particularly in the bullpen, has been their Achilles’ heel, with a team ERA of 5.21 that ranks near the bottom of the league. On Sunday, they’ll turn to left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who owns a 2-3 record and a solid 3.51 ERA with 59 strikeouts over 41 innings; his high strikeout rate gives Washington a fighting chance, especially against an aggressive Cincinnati lineup that can be prone to chasing out of the zone. The Reds, sitting at 18-16 and just above .500, have had a more well-rounded performance so far this season, both offensively and on the mound, with an average of 5.1 runs per game and a team ERA of 3.64, which has kept them in nearly every contest.

Their offense is powered by the electrifying Elly De La Cruz, who leads the team with 25 RBIs and continues to be a spark plug both at the plate and on the basepaths, while Gavin Lux contributes consistently with a .330 OBP. Cincinnati’s starting pitcher, Nick Martinez, enters with a 1-3 record and a 4.68 ERA, but has the ability to mix pitches effectively and generate soft contact, though he’ll need to be sharper than he has been in previous outings to contain the Nationals’ patient hitters. Defensively, the Reds have been more disciplined and consistent than their opponents, and their 18-14 ATS record reflects their ability to outperform betting expectations. Games at Great American Ball Park often skew toward higher scores, and with the Reds having seen the over hit in 15 of their 32 contests with an 8.5-run total line, Sunday has the potential to be another high-scoring affair if either starter falters early. The key battle will likely be decided by which starter can navigate through the opposing middle of the order without damage and which bullpen can lock down the late innings—an area that gives the edge to Cincinnati. For the Nationals to win, they’ll need Gore to continue missing bats and keep De La Cruz off the bases, while hoping their bats can jump on Martinez early. For the Reds, if they can provide Martinez with run support and avoid bullpen meltdowns, they’ll be in prime position to close out the series with a victory and continue building momentum in the NL Central.