The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will close out their three-game AL East series at Rogers Centre on May 1, 2025, with both clubs looking to gain ground in a tightly contested division race. The Red Sox come into the finale with a 17–15 record, riding one of the most productive offenses in Major League Baseball, while the Blue Jays sit at 14–16 and continue to search for offensive rhythm and pitching consistency. Boston enters the matchup ranking third in the league in runs scored and seventh in home runs, while Toronto has hovered near the bottom of the offensive leaderboard, producing only 19 home runs and struggling to manufacture consistent run support. The pitching matchup will be pivotal, as the Red Sox send right-hander Tanner Houck to the mound despite his tough 0–2 start and inflated 7.58 ERA. Opposing him is José Berríos, who has been more steady with a 1–1 record and a 4.24 ERA, showing signs of veteran command and composure in his recent outings, including a scoreless 5 1/3-inning start against the Yankees. With both pitchers capable of variable results, the series finale will likely come down to which team can execute better offensively and capitalize on runners in scoring position—something Boston has consistently done better this season. Boston’s success to this point has been powered by a red-hot lineup led by Alex Bregman, who’s hitting .328 with seven home runs, and a supporting cast that has been aggressive at the plate while maintaining excellent on-base discipline. The Red Sox’s offensive profile includes a .251 team batting average and a .423 slugging percentage, reflecting their ability to strike early and sustain rallies.

Their only major concern has been pitching inconsistency, particularly from Houck, who has allowed too many base runners and struggled to get through five innings in most starts. However, their bullpen has been more dependable, often bailing out the rotation when needed and locking down close games late. Toronto, by contrast, has leaned more heavily on its pitching staff to stay competitive. Berríos will be tasked with holding a dangerous lineup in check, especially in the early innings, to prevent the game from getting away quickly. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has shown flashes of effectiveness but remains vulnerable when taxed repeatedly, as has been the case due to short outings by the rotation. Defensively, both teams have had their moments, but Boston has committed fewer errors and has played sharper baseball in the field, which has further supported their overall winning efforts. With the Blue Jays slightly favored on the moneyline at -112, oddsmakers see this game as evenly matched, especially given Toronto’s 17–12 ATS performance this year. However, with the Red Sox scoring runs at a top-three rate, the offensive gap may prove to be the deciding factor. The over/under is set at 8.5, and given the inconsistency from both starting pitchers, there’s a real chance the bats will dictate the pace of this game. For Boston, a win would mean a valuable road series victory and momentum heading into May. For Toronto, avoiding another series loss at home is crucial for keeping pace in the division and restoring confidence after a sluggish start.