Phillies vs Mets Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS MLB Lines & Props (Apr 21)
Updated: 2025-04-19T03:31:50.923562ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Philadelphia Phillies (13–8) and the New York Mets (13–8) clash at Citi Field on April 21, 2025, in a pivotal early-season NL East showdown. With both teams tied atop the division, this matchup could set the tone for the rivalry moving forward.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Apr 21, 2025
Start Time: 7:10 PM EST
Venue: Citi Field
Mets Record: (15-7)
Phillies Record: (13-9)
OPENING ODDS
PHI Moneyline: +100
NYM Moneyline: -120
PHI Spread: -1.5
NYM Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8
PHI
Betting Trends
- The Phillies have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games, demonstrating strong recent performance.
NYM
Betting Trends
- The Mets have covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 home games, indicating solid play at Citi Field.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The Phillies have a +28 run differential, while the Mets have a +15 run differential, suggesting both teams are performing well offensively and defensively.
PHI vs. NYM
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Stott over 0.5 Total Bases.
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Philadelphia vs New York Mets Prediction & Odds:
Free MLB Betting Insights for 4/21/25
The Mets’ pitching staff, though dealing with early injuries, has remained effective thanks to the resurgence of Kodai Senga and strong bullpen work from Edwin Díaz and Brooks Raley. With the game taking place at Citi Field, where the Mets are 7–3 this season, they’ll look to leverage their home-field advantage and contain Philadelphia’s high-octane lineup by controlling the pace from the mound. Both teams boast solid defensive metrics, and the margin for error in this type of rivalry game will be razor-thin. What makes this matchup particularly compelling is not just the talent on both sides, but how evenly matched they are across key categories: both teams average over 4.8 runs per game, both rank in the top half in team ERA, and both possess multiple players capable of turning a game around in a single swing. The Phillies may lean more on power, while the Mets emphasize contact and situational hitting, but both approaches have yielded similar results thus far. Expect a tightly contested, playoff-like atmosphere with plenty of strategic maneuvering—bullpen usage, stolen base attempts, and defensive shifts may all play pivotal roles. In a division where every game matters and the standings can swing on the smallest details, this Monday night clash is about more than one win—it’s about staking a claim early in what is shaping up to be one of baseball’s most intense divisional races. With bragging rights, momentum, and first place on the line, Phillies vs. Mets at Citi Field is must-watch baseball.
All tied up! pic.twitter.com/B7ObnTVMPP
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 20, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies head into their April 21, 2025 matchup at Citi Field with purpose, carrying a 13–8 record and their sights firmly set on seizing early control of the NL East. Their lineup has been one of the most consistent in the league, led by a potent trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner—each delivering in distinct but equally vital ways. Harper continues to be the steadying veteran presence, hitting .328 with a .420 on-base percentage, driving in runs with his trademark opposite-field power and timely extra-base hits. Schwarber has emerged as the team’s home run leader with six long balls, and his .608 slugging percentage has provided the thunder needed in the heart of the lineup. Meanwhile, Turner brings balance and disruption, batting over .300 and wreaking havoc on the bases with eight stolen bags, constantly forcing opposing pitchers to divide their focus. Their +28 run differential, one of the best in the National League, illustrates how effectively their offense is operating—not just scoring in bursts, but applying pressure inning after inning. On the mound, Aaron Nola gets the start despite an 0–4 record and a bloated 6.65 ERA, making this appearance one of critical importance for both him and the team. While Nola’s numbers are discouraging, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has remained confident in the veteran right-hander, citing his track record, strikeout potential, and ability to work deep into games when in rhythm.
The team’s bullpen has helped soften the impact of some inconsistent starting outings, with José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez forming a strong late-game tandem that’s held up well in tight contests. Defensively, the Phillies have cleaned up some of the miscues that hurt them early last season, with Bryson Stott continuing to impress at second base and J.T. Realmuto providing elite catching behind the plate, managing the staff and controlling the running game. The Phillies have also fared well on the road so far this season, entering this matchup with three road series wins and a recent run of 5 ATS covers in their last 7 games—proof they’re thriving under pressure and exceeding expectations against tough opponents. A matchup with the Mets is never just another game—it’s an emotional, divisional rivalry that brings added urgency to each pitch and at-bat, and the Phillies know a win on Monday could swing early-season momentum in their favor. Beating the Mets at Citi Field, where they’ve been strong this year, will require Nola to step up and limit damage early, while the offense continues its trend of scoring in the middle innings and putting games away with the long ball. If Schwarber and Harper can continue their hot streaks and Turner sets the tone at the top of the order, the Phillies will be in excellent position to grab a critical road win. More than just a chance to move ahead in the standings, this game offers the Phillies a chance to make a statement: that despite some pitching hiccups, they’re built to compete, to score in bunches, and to battle for every inch in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
New York Mets Mets MLB Preview
The New York Mets welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to Citi Field on April 21, 2025, in what is shaping up to be one of their most important early-season contests, as both teams enter the night tied at 13–8 atop the NL East. The Mets have been gaining traction over the past two weeks thanks to a resurgent offense and consistently excellent starting pitching, giving them a +15 run differential and the confidence that their roster, top to bottom, can challenge for the division title. Pete Alonso has led the charge, mashing seven home runs and driving in 18 runs while hitting .356—reestablishing himself as one of the most feared power hitters in the league. Behind him, Juan Soto is slowly rounding into form, with a .240 average and four home runs, but his presence alone continues to alter pitching approaches and open opportunities for hitters like Francisco Lindor and Brett Baty. Lindor, batting .290 over the past two weeks, has settled into a groove and is providing clutch hits in the middle innings, while Baty and Francisco Álvarez have supplied timely offense and much-needed balance in the bottom half of the lineup. The biggest storyline heading into this game, however, may be Tylor Megill, who gets the start for New York and enters with a stellar 1.40 ERA and a 2–2 record. Megill has emerged as a legitimate anchor in a rotation that has dealt with injuries, and his ability to mix speeds and throw strikes has made him tough to square up. With his fastball command dialed in and his changeup generating plenty of swings and misses, he offers the Mets a reliable arm to counter Philadelphia’s high-powered offense. The bullpen, anchored by Edwin Díaz, has also been sharp, converting late-game leads into wins while posting some of the lowest WHIP and ERA numbers in the National League.
Defensively, the Mets have been quietly excellent, committing few errors and consistently making the routine plays that allow their pitchers to work with confidence. Brandon Nimmo’s defense in center field continues to shine, and Lindor has delivered multiple highlight-reel plays at shortstop, keeping rallies in check and igniting the dugout. With home-field advantage and the momentum of a 7–3 record at Citi Field, the Mets have every reason to feel confident heading into this pivotal matchup. Their recent 4–2 ATS run at home suggests they’re playing with consistency and rising to the occasion when expectations are high. Manager Carlos Mendoza has emphasized clean baseball, plate discipline, and execution, and the team has responded with an all-around approach that’s translating into wins. Beating the Phillies means keeping Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber quiet, avoiding free passes, and getting ahead in counts early to force aggressive swings. If Megill can set the tone and Alonso continues to swing a hot bat, the Mets will be in strong position to take the series opener and seize the NL East lead outright. In front of their home crowd, and with both pride and standings on the line, the Mets are primed to send a message that they are more than just a contender—they’re ready to run this division.
Clay Day 💪@moomooApp | #LGM pic.twitter.com/anu9ONygZY
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 20, 2025
Philadelphia vs. New York Mets Prop Picks (AI)
Philadelphia vs. New York Mets Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over millions of data from every past game between the Phillies and Mets and using recursive machine learning and kick-ass AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
The Algorithm has been most fixated on the trending emphasis emotional bettors often put on New York Mets’s strength factors between a Phillies team going up against a possibly healthy Mets team. It appears the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our MLB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI Philadelphia vs New York Mets picks, computer picks Phillies vs Mets, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full MLB schedule.
Phillies Betting Trends
The Phillies have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games, demonstrating strong recent performance.
Mets Betting Trends
The Mets have covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 home games, indicating solid play at Citi Field.
Phillies vs. Mets Matchup Trends
The Phillies have a +28 run differential, while the Mets have a +15 run differential, suggesting both teams are performing well offensively and defensively.
Philadelphia vs. New York Mets Game Info
What time does Philadelphia vs New York Mets start on April 21, 2025?
Philadelphia vs New York Mets starts on April 21, 2025 at 7:10 PM EST.
Where is Philadelphia vs New York Mets being played?
Venue: Citi Field.
What are the opening odds for Philadelphia vs New York Mets?
Spread: New York Mets +1.5
Moneyline: Philadelphia +100, New York Mets -120
Over/Under: 8
What are the records for Philadelphia vs New York Mets?
Philadelphia: (13-9) | New York Mets: (15-7)
What is the AI best bet for Philadelphia vs New York Mets?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: B. Stott over 0.5 Total Bases.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are Philadelphia vs New York Mets trending bets?
The Phillies have a +28 run differential, while the Mets have a +15 run differential, suggesting both teams are performing well offensively and defensively.
What are Philadelphia trending bets?
PHI trend: The Phillies have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games, demonstrating strong recent performance.
What are New York Mets trending bets?
NYM trend: The Mets have covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 home games, indicating solid play at Citi Field.
Where can I find AI Picks for Philadelphia vs New York Mets?
See our latest MLB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Philadelphia vs. New York Mets Odds
Remi is pouring through loads of data on each line. In fact, anytime the Philadelphia vs New York Mets trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Philadelphia vs New York Mets Opening Odds
PHI Moneyline:
+100 NYM Moneyline: -120
PHI Spread: -1.5
NYM Spread: +1.5
Over/Under: 8
Philadelphia vs New York Mets Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U |
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MLB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Mets on April 21, 2025 at Citi Field.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our MLB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
| LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD@TOR | TOR +1.5 | 56.7% | 2 | WIN |
| TOR@LAD | TOR +1.5 | 55.3% | 4 | WIN |
| TOR@SEA | OVER 7 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
| LAD@MIL | UNDER 7.5 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
| TOR@NYY | OVER 8 | 54.9% | 4 | WIN |
| TOR@NYY | CARLOS RODON OVER 1.5 TOTAL WALKS ALLOWED | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
| NYY@TOR | OVER 7.5 | 54.8% | 2 | WIN |
| LAD@PHI | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| SD@CHC | CHC -109 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| SD@CHC | OVER 7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| SD@CHC | CHC -111 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| CIN@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 1.5 BASES | 53.5% | 3 | WIN |
| BOS@NYY | OVER 7 | 53.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| CIN@LAD | ELLY DE LA CRUZ OVER 0.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| ARI@SD | SD -131 | 57.3% | 4 | WIN |
| DET@BOS | BOS -115 | 56.4% | 5 | WIN |
| NYM@CHC | NYM -110 | 54.1% | 3 | WIN |
| HOU@ATH | ATH +118 | 50.8% | 4 | WIN |
| NYM@CHC | OVER 7 | 54.5% | 3 | WIN |
| STL@SF | OVER 7.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| KC@LAA | TYLER TOLBERT UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| MIL@SD | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
| MIA@PHI | KYLE SCHWARBER OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@NYM | OVER 8.5 | 56.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| LAA@COL | COL +108 | 50.5% | 3 | WIN |
| TOR@KC | UNDER 9 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| SEA@KC | KC +1.5 | 62.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| NYY@MIN | OVER 9 | 55.1% | 4 | WIN |
| MIA@COL | OVER 10.5 | 55.0% | 4 | WIN |
| MIA@COL | AGUSTIN RAMIREZ OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIS | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| SEA@KC | BOBBY WITT UNDER 0.5 SINGLES | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| PHI@LAD | LAD -113 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| NYY@BOS | OVER 7.5 | 54.3% | 3 | WIN |
| KC@PHI | PHI -130 | 58.3% | 4 | WIN |
| LAD@SF | OVER 7.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| NYM@PHI | PHI -122 | 55.6% | 4 | WIN |
| KC@CLE | KC -104 | 52.0% | 3 | WIN |
| CIN@SD | JAKE CRONEWORTH OVER 0.5 HITS | 53.1% | 3 | WIN |
| WAS@MIA | MIA -123 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| LAA@KC | UNDER 9.5 | 54.9% | 3 | WIN |
| TEX@ARI | UNDER 9 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SF@COL | UNDER 11.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| SF@COL | RAFAEL DEVERS OVER 1.5 BASES | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
| MIA@WAS | WAS -110 | 54.4% | 4 | WIN |
| NYM@DET | OVER 8.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| TEX@ARI | UNDER 9.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
| TEX@ARI | ALEJANDRO OSUNA UNDER 1.5 BASES | 54.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| ATL@CHC | CHC -116 | 55.1% | 3 | WIN |
| PHI@MIL | OVER 8.5 | 55.0% | 3 | WIN |
| ARI@LAD | SHOHEI OHTANI OVER 2.5 BASES | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| SEA@CLE | CLE +1.5 | 57.2% | 3 | WIN |