Navy Midshipmen
Navy brings a 0-3 ATS start and quarterback uncertainty into altitude, while Air Force arrives off a 36-33 double-overtime escape at Nevada. The rivalry's option familiarity makes Braxton Woodson's ankle status and early-down rushing efficiency the defining betting angles.
Betting Snapshot
Spread Movement
Moneyline Movement
Total Movement
Best Free Prop Pick
This page gives you one free prop. Upgrade for premium sides, totals, more props, and the full daily AI board.
Unlock Premium AI PicksOdds Comparison Center
Shop for the best lines in one place.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | NAVY +116 AF -142 | O 46.5 U 46.5 |
| DraftKings | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | NAVY +130 AF -155 | O 46.5 U 46.5 |
| BetMGM | NAVY +3 AF -3 | NAVY +120 AF -145 | O 46.5 U 46.5 |
| BetRivers | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | NAVY +114 AF -141 | O 47.5 U 47.5 |
| Fanatics | NAVY +3 AF -3 | NAVY +125 AF -150 | O 47 U 47 |
| Bovada | NAVY +3 AF -3 | NAVY +130 AF -150 | O 47 U 47 |
| BetOnline.ag | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | — | O 47 U 47 |
| LowVig.ag | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | — | O 47 U 47 |
| MyBookie.ag | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | NAVY +119 AF -146 | O 47 U 47 |
| BetUS | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | — | O 47 U 47 |
| Caesars | NAVY +2.5 AF -2.5 | NAVY +121 AF -143 | O 46.5 U 46.5 |
Injury Report
Navy quarterback Braxton Woodson missed the UAB loss with an ankle injury after being limited to emergency availability; he is targeting a return against Air Force. Jackson Gutierrez started in his place and handled 34 carries. Navy running back Landon Walker has also carried a questionable undisclosed designation. Air Force wide receiver Jonah Dawson was ruled out against Nevada with an undisclosed injury, making his Week 5 availability worth monitoring.
Key Players
Key Matchup Edge
Navy's rush defense has allowed only 65.7 yards per game, but Air Force now averages 333.7 rushing yards after pounding Nevada for 363. The betting hinge is whether Navy can force long-yardage snaps without overcommitting to Liam Szarka, because Air Force's option efficiency grows dramatically when it stays ahead of schedule.
3 Things to Watch
- Braxton Woodson ankle status
- Liam Szarka designed-run volume
- Fourth-quarter Navy ball security
Betting Breakdown
Service-academy games usually compress possessions, and this one brings unusually clear strength-on-strength tension. Navy enters 1-2 and 0-3 ATS after losing 24-20 at UAB despite a 353-290 yardage edge and 34:22 of possession. Jackson Gutierrez produced 238 total yards in his first start, but two fourth-quarter Navy fumbles flipped the result. Air Force is 2-1 after a 36-33 double-overtime road win at Nevada, where the Falcons ran for 363 yards and Liam Szarka carried 33 times for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Navy's defense has allowed just 65.7 rushing yards per game through three contests, setting up the core handicap against an Air Force ground game now averaging 333.7. Navy has won the last two head-to-head meetings, including 34-7 at Falcon Stadium in 2024, but Szarka rushed for 152 yards in last year's 34-31 loss at Navy. Braxton Woodson's ankle status could materially change Navy's quarterback workload and explosiveness. With no consensus spread or total posted early Sunday, injury news and the first market opener deserve extra weight.
Navy Betting Outlook
Navy's betting case starts with a rushing offense averaging 333.7 yards per game and a defense surrendering only 65.7 on the ground. The problem is market performance: the Midshipmen are 0-3 ATS and 0-2 on the road, with back-to-back outright losses to Florida Atlantic and UAB. Gutierrez gave the offense stability at UAB, rushing for 134 yards while adding 104 through the air, but late fumbles erased a statistical edge. Woodson's ankle remains the swing factor because his speed changes Navy's ceiling. If he sits again, Navy needs cleaner exchanges, fewer negative plays and another heavy-efficiency outing from Gutierrez to survive Air Force's home-field pressure.
Air Force Betting Outlook
Air Force returns home 2-1 after a taxing 36-33 double-overtime win at Nevada, but the offensive profile travels well: 363 rushing yards, 455 total yards and a career-high 171 rushing yards from Szarka. The Falcons are 1-2 ATS and 1-1 at Falcon Stadium, so their straight-up record has outpaced market results. Szarka is the focal point, with Conti adding 77 rushing yards and the winning touchdown at Nevada. The concern is a short recovery window after overtime and a Navy defense built to handle option concepts. If Air Force controls first down and keeps Szarka out of obvious passing situations, altitude and sustained drives can become meaningful second-half advantages.
Latest Team Buzz
final pic.twitter.com/gS2N5iAnBM
— Navy Football (@NavyFB) September 26, 2026
Fly, Fight, 𝗪𝗢𝗡.#FlyFightWin pic.twitter.com/tIPFfaDQgb
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) September 27, 2026
Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons FAQ
What is the current spread for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
The current home spread is AF -2.5, while the away spread is NAVY +2.5.
How far has the spread moved for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
The spread opened at AF -1.5 and is now AF -2.5.
What is the current moneyline for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
The current moneyline is NAVY +130 / AF -155.
How far has the moneyline moved for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
The moneyline opened at NAVY -105 / AF -115 and is now NAVY +130 / AF -155.
What is the current total for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
The current total is 46.5.
How far has the total moved for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
The total opened at 49.5 and is now 46.5.
Is the market taking the underdog in Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
Current market signal: Market Widening.
Is the market taking the favorite in Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
Current market signal: Favorite Taking Support.
Is the total dropping for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
Current totals signal: Total Dropping.
Is the total rising for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
Current totals signal: Total Dropping.
Where to watch Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
You can watch this game on CBS. For the latest broadcast details, see Where to Watch.
Where to stream Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
You can stream this game on Paramount+.
What is the best free prop bet for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
Remi's Still Searching
What is the biggest matchup edge for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?
Navy's rush defense has allowed only 65.7 yards per game, but Air Force now averages 333.7 rushing yards after pounding Nevada for 363. The betting hinge is whether Navy can force long-yardage snaps without overcommitting to Liam Szarka, because Air Force's option efficiency grows dramatically when it stays ahead of schedule.
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement. We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.