The November 15, 2025, Big 12 showdown between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe features two programs on diverging paths as the season enters its final stretch. Arizona State, sitting at 6-3, has been one of the more consistent and balanced teams in the conference under head coach Kenny Dillingham, blending an efficient offense with a defense that has grown into a disciplined unit capable of holding up in crucial moments. West Virginia, on the other hand, enters the matchup at 3-6 and fighting to stay afloat in a challenging first season back under Rich Rodriguez, whose reimplementation of the spread-option offense has produced mixed results. The Mountaineers have played hard but have struggled to finish games, particularly on the road, where offensive inconsistencies and defensive lapses have proven costly. The Sun Devils enter as roughly 11-point favorites, reflecting both their home-field advantage and a clear gap in stability between the programs. Arizona State’s offense has been led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who has developed into a confident decision-maker capable of executing Dillingham’s fast-paced scheme. Supported by dynamic running back Raleek Brown and an improving offensive line, the Sun Devils average around 30 points per game and have displayed versatility—able to stretch the field vertically or grind out possessions when needed. Their receiving corps, featuring Elijhah Badger and Jalin Conyers, has been instrumental in keeping defenses off balance. Defensively, Arizona State has been opportunistic, ranking among the better Big 12 teams in takeaways and third-down efficiency, though their secondary has occasionally struggled against tempo-based attacks.

That could present opportunities for West Virginia’s offense, which, when clicking, can still be dangerous in space. The Mountaineers’ attack runs through running back Jahiem White, a shifty and explosive ball carrier averaging over five yards per carry despite facing loaded fronts most weeks. At quarterback, the Mountaineers have rotated through options as they search for a steady presence under center, and whoever starts will need to minimize turnovers against an Arizona State defense that thrives on pressure. West Virginia’s defense, while physical up front, has been inconsistent in coverage and has allowed over 29 points per game, ranking near the bottom of the Big 12. They’ve struggled with tackling in the open field and breakdowns on third down, areas Arizona State will undoubtedly target with its precision passing game and pace. For the Mountaineers to stay competitive, they must win the turnover battle, establish the run early, and prevent Arizona State from dictating tempo. The betting trends tell a nuanced story: Arizona State has been a modest 3-4-1 against the spread, while West Virginia, despite its poor record, has managed to cover in five of nine contests. That points to the Mountaineers’ ability to keep games tighter than expected, especially as underdogs. The total for this matchup, hovering around 47, suggests oddsmakers expect a moderate-scoring game dominated by defense and game control rather than shootout dynamics. The Sun Devils’ offensive balance and home-field advantage make them the clear favorite to win outright, but if West Virginia’s run game and opportunistic defense can disrupt rhythm early, a cover within single digits remains plausible. Expect Arizona State to start fast, use tempo to apply pressure, and pull away late, while West Virginia fights to stay competitive behind its ground game and grit. The most likely outcome is Arizona State controlling the game from start to finish, securing a 31-20 victory that keeps its bowl hopes firmly intact while leaving West Virginia searching for progress amid another tough road defeat.

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