The Texas Longhorns enter their October 25, 2025, road matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs with high expectations but mounting pressure to find consistency on offense as they continue to adapt to the grind of SEC play. Sitting at 5-2 overall and ranked inside the top 25, Texas remains one of the most talented teams in the nation, yet the offense has lagged behind the defense in terms of execution and rhythm. Under head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have relied heavily on their defensive prowess to win close games, allowing just 11 points per contest, but their offensive output—averaging around 28.5 points per game—has not reflected the firepower expected from a team led by quarterback Arch Manning. Manning’s arm talent and leadership are unquestioned, but Texas has struggled to find sustained success on early downs, often putting themselves behind schedule and forcing him into high-pressure situations. The offensive line, though talented, has been inconsistent in pass protection against top-tier defensive fronts, and the running game, once a hallmark of Texas football, has lacked the explosive balance to relieve pressure. Against a Mississippi State defense that thrives on generating turnovers and pressuring quarterbacks, Texas will need to prioritize quick decision-making, ball security, and tempo control to neutralize the Bulldogs’ pass rush and the noise of Davis Wade Stadium. Defensively, the Longhorns continue to shine as one of the most disciplined and complete units in the country.

Their front seven, led by linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and edge rusher Ethan Burke, has been relentless in controlling the line of scrimmage, while the secondary has been exceptional in coverage, allowing minimal separation and limiting big plays. Against a Mississippi State offense that likes to push the tempo and stretch the field, Texas’s defense will need to maintain communication and prevent the Bulldogs from turning short passes into chunk gains. Special teams could also play a pivotal role, as field position will matter in what’s expected to be a physical, low-scoring contest. From a betting perspective, Texas has covered the spread in just two of its first six games this season, a reflection of the team’s habit of underperforming relative to oddsmakers’ expectations. The key for Texas to turn that around lies in starting fast and avoiding the sluggish first quarters that have plagued them in several recent outings. Sarkisian’s offensive scheme is built on rhythm and execution, and when the Longhorns can get into an early groove, they’re difficult to stop. However, on the road against a Mississippi State team that’s been excellent ATS and defensively sound, the Longhorns cannot afford lapses in focus or execution. Texas will look to establish physical dominance up front, lean on its defense to set the tone, and trust Manning’s poise to deliver in critical moments. The challenge will be balancing patience and aggressiveness—Texas must avoid forcing plays while still finding opportunities to exploit mismatches against the Bulldogs’ secondary. If the Longhorns can rediscover their offensive explosiveness without compromising ball security, they have the talent to assert control and come away with a key SEC road win. But if the offensive inconsistencies persist, Mississippi State’s disciplined, opportunistic style could once again test Texas’s composure and make this another grind-it-out battle that goes down to the wire.