The October 25, 2025 matchup between the Houston Cougars and the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe brings together two programs on very different trajectories within the new-look Big 12. Houston enters the contest as one of the conference’s most improved teams, sitting at 5-1 overall and carrying strong momentum after several statement victories that have put them on the national radar. Under head coach Willie Fritz, the Cougars have transformed into a model of balance and efficiency, blending a steady offense with a disciplined, turnover-forcing defense that has proven capable of dictating tempo. Their offense, averaging nearly 30 points per game, is built around quarterback Conner Weigman, whose maturity and accuracy have elevated Houston’s passing game to complement its powerful ground attack. Running backs Parker Jenkins and Stacy Sneed have formed a reliable tandem, combining for over 800 rushing yards on the season and allowing Houston to sustain long, clock-draining drives. The Cougars’ offensive line, a veteran unit that has quietly become one of the Big 12’s best, has paved the way for both the run game and the protection needed for Weigman to find rhythm. Defensively, Houston has been impressive, holding opponents under 20 points per game and excelling at situational football. Their front seven, led by linebacker Malik Robinson and defensive tackle Chidozie Nwankwo, has consistently won battles in the trenches, while the secondary has tightened coverage and improved its communication, giving the Cougars one of the conference’s stingiest red-zone defenses. Arizona State, meanwhile, finds itself at a crossroads under third-year head coach Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils are 5-2 overall, but their inconsistent play and middling 40% ATS record reflect a team that has yet to fully capitalize on its potential.

Offensively, Arizona State has been steady on the ground—averaging nearly five yards per carry—but has struggled through the air, ranking near the bottom of the Big 12 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Jaden Rashada has flashed arm talent and athleticism, but his accuracy under pressure and decision-making in tight windows have been issues, particularly against disciplined defenses like Houston’s. The Sun Devils’ strength lies in their ability to control time of possession and sustain long drives, holding the ball for more than 34 minutes per game thanks to an efficient offensive line and a deep running back rotation led by Raleek Brown. Defensively, Arizona State’s unit has been serviceable but not dominant, surrendering around 25 points per game and occasionally struggling with big plays downfield. For them to keep this game close, their defense will need to tighten on third downs and force Houston to settle for field goals rather than touchdowns. From a betting perspective, Houston’s 66% ATS rate suggests a team that not only wins but often exceeds expectations, while Arizona State’s inconsistency against the number makes them a riskier play. The Cougars’ composure on the road and defensive discipline make them a legitimate favorite in this matchup, even away from home. Expect Houston to control tempo early with its running game and short passing attack, while Arizona State will rely on crowd energy and long, methodical possessions to stay in range. If the Sun Devils can protect Rashada and avoid turnovers, they can make this a four-quarter fight, but Houston’s balance, efficiency, and superior defensive structure give them the edge. In a game that could shape both teams’ postseason outlooks, the Cougars’ consistency and adaptability should prove decisive as they look to leave Tempe with another statement win and a potential climb up the Big 12 standings.

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