Boise State vs Nevada Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CFB Lines & Props (Oct 24)
Updated: 2025-10-17T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
The Boise State Broncos travel to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack on October 24, 2025 — a matchup rich with rivalry and high stakes as Boise State aims to maintain its Mountain West dominance while Nevada attempts to pull off a season-defining upset on home turf. Boise State comes in as the favorite, driving toward another conference title, while Nevada will lean on its underdog edge and emotional fire as it fights to rewrite its recent history.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Oct 24, 2025
Start Time: 10:00 PM EST
Venue: Mackay Stadium
Wolf Pack Record: (1-6)
Broncos Record: (5-2)
OPENING ODDS
BOISE Moneyline: +162
NEVADA Moneyline: -196
BOISE Spread: +4.5
NEVADA Spread: -4.5
Over/Under: 49.5
BOISE
Betting Trends
- Boise State enters this contest with strong home-field dominance historically and has consistently out-performed the spread on the road when playing at this level — despite occasional coverage misses, the Broncos remain one of the more reliable ATS plays in the Mountain West when favored.
NEVADA
Betting Trends
- Nevada has struggled to cover games as the home underdog of late, posting one of the lowest ATS success rates in the league when facing ranked or highly favored opponents — the Wolf Pack have covered fewer than 40 percent of such games in recent seasons.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- In this rivalry series, the over/under has been hit in six of the last seven meetings, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring than the lines imply; moreover, when Nevada plays Boise State at home, the Wolf Pack have been surprisingly more competitive than their record suggests, covering two of the last four despite being double-digit underdogs.
BOISE vs. NEVADA
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Riley under 1.5 Total Touchdowns.
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Boise State vs Nevada Prediction & Odds:
Free CFB Betting Insights for 10/24/25
The Week 9 Mountain West showdown between the Boise State Broncos and the Nevada Wolf Pack on October 24, 2025, carries contrasting narratives: one team reaffirming its dominance and another fighting for relevance. Boise State enters this game as the clear favorite, riding a balanced offense and one of the most efficient defenses in the conference, while Nevada continues its rebuilding journey under head coach Jeff Choate, hoping to turn home-field energy at Mackay Stadium into an equalizer. Boise State’s offense, led by quarterback Maddux Madsen, has grown more versatile with the development of its passing attack complementing a bruising run game anchored by backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos are averaging over 6 yards per play this season and rank among the top teams in red-zone touchdown efficiency, converting more than 70% of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns. That offensive rhythm is supported by a deep offensive line that has allowed minimal quarterback pressure and created rushing lanes that wear down defenses late in games. Defensively, Boise State remains the class of the Mountain West, allowing just 21 points per game while forcing turnovers at an elite rate, thanks to a veteran secondary led by A’Marion McCoy and linebacker Andrew Simpson’s downhill aggression. Their front seven’s ability to disrupt backfields will test a Nevada offense that has struggled to sustain drives, ranking near the bottom of the conference in both success rate and yards per play. Nevada’s offensive inconsistency stems from protection issues and erratic quarterback play, though transfer Chubba Purdy has shown flashes of explosiveness when given time to operate.
The Wolf Pack’s ground game, powered by backs Caleb Ramseur and Jamaal Bell, has been streaky, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, but will need to provide some balance to prevent Boise from pinning its ears back. The key tactical battle will be whether Nevada can stay within striking distance long enough to keep its playbook open; falling behind early against a disciplined Boise squad has spelled disaster for nearly every opponent this season. Special teams may also factor into the outcome, as Boise’s kicking unit has been steady while Nevada’s has shown inconsistency on field goals beyond 40 yards. Historically, Boise State has dominated this series, winning 14 of the last 15 matchups, though Nevada has covered the spread in two of the last four home meetings, often fueled by a fast start and crowd momentum. The Wolf Pack’s best path to an upset involves limiting turnovers, hitting a few explosive plays early, and forcing Boise into third-and-long scenarios that test Madsen’s pocket awareness. However, with the Broncos’ superior depth, red-zone execution, and defensive stability, it’s hard to envision Nevada holding up for four quarters. Boise’s balanced attack, combined with its ability to control tempo and field position, gives it a clear advantage in what should be a statement win for a team eyeing another Mountain West title run before its upcoming conference transition.
Get live CFB odds and precise AI CFB picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
Rest in peace to a Bronco legend. You will be missed.
— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 19, 2025
📰 https://t.co/LpLaR9GJNn pic.twitter.com/4bLvZX5J9m
Boise State Broncos CFB Preview
The Boise State Broncos enter their October 24, 2025 matchup against Nevada with the kind of balance, depth, and discipline that has long defined the program’s success in the Mountain West. Under head coach Spencer Danielson, Boise State has developed into one of the most complete teams in Group of Five football, combining a methodical, efficient offense with a physical, opportunistic defense. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has come into his own this season, displaying sharp decision-making and excellent composure under pressure, completing over 65% of his passes while spreading the ball to a versatile set of weapons that includes receivers Latrell Caples, Eric McAlister, and tight end Matt Lauter. Madsen’s chemistry with his targets has allowed the Broncos to stretch defenses horizontally and vertically, while their strong ground game, led by the dynamic duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, continues to anchor the offense. Holani’s power and Jeanty’s burst make them one of the most dangerous backfield tandems in the country, capable of grinding out tough yards or breaking long runs that shift momentum. The Broncos’ offensive line, one of the most experienced in the Mountain West, has provided exceptional protection for Madsen and consistently created running lanes, ranking among the top units nationally in fewest sacks allowed per game. Boise’s offensive success also lies in its ability to control pace — averaging nearly 33 minutes of possession per game — and execute efficiently in the red zone, where they’ve converted a remarkable percentage of drives into touchdowns.
Defensively, the Broncos have maintained their identity as a disciplined, fast, and punishing unit. Led by linebacker Andrew Simpson and edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan, the front seven has excelled at limiting explosive plays and forcing opponents into uncomfortable third-and-long situations. Boise State ranks near the top of the conference in opponent yards per carry, and their secondary, headlined by cornerback A’Marion McCoy, has been particularly opportunistic in man coverage, recording multiple interceptions in three straight games heading into this matchup. The Broncos’ pass rush has been relentless, pressuring quarterbacks on nearly 30% of dropbacks, a statistic that could spell trouble for a Nevada offensive line that has struggled with protection all season. Special teams continue to be a quiet strength for Boise State, with kicker Jonah Dalmas providing reliability in clutch situations and punter James Ferguson-Reynolds frequently pinning opponents deep in their own territory. On the road, the Broncos bring not just execution but composure — traits that have helped them win consistently in tough environments. The key for Boise State will be maintaining focus and avoiding the kind of self-inflicted errors that occasionally keep inferior opponents in games. Given their balance, depth, and the leadership of experienced players across all units, the Broncos have the tools to dominate time of possession, control field position, and suffocate Nevada’s offense. As they march toward another potential conference championship, this matchup represents not only a chance to continue their winning ways but also an opportunity to showcase why they remain the model of consistency and excellence in Mountain West football.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Nevada Wolf Pack CFB Preview
The Nevada Wolf Pack return home to Mackay Stadium on October 24, 2025, looking to pull off one of the biggest upsets of their season against powerhouse Boise State in what has become a familiar David vs. Goliath scenario within the Mountain West. Head coach Jeff Choate continues to mold a young roster still searching for consistency and rhythm on both sides of the ball, and this matchup will be the ultimate test of their growth and resilience. Offensively, the Wolf Pack’s hopes rest on quarterback Chubba Purdy, the athletic and instinctive transfer who has injected energy into an offense that too often sputtered in 2024. Purdy’s dual-threat ability gives Nevada a much-needed dimension of unpredictability, but his decision-making under pressure remains a work in progress. Behind him, the ground game — led by backs Caleb Ramseur and Jamaal Bell — will be critical to slowing down Boise State’s relentless pass rush and controlling the clock. Nevada’s offensive line, which has allowed one of the highest sack rates in the conference, must elevate its play dramatically to give Purdy time to operate, as facing a Boise defense that thrives on disrupting timing and collapsing the pocket is an enormous challenge. The passing game has shown flashes, especially with receivers Spencer Curtis and Dalevon Campbell emerging as reliable targets, but sustaining drives has been the team’s Achilles’ heel.
The Wolf Pack rank near the bottom of the Mountain West in third-down conversion rate, often stalling out before midfield and leaving their defense on the field too long. Defensively, Nevada faces an uphill battle against one of the most efficient offenses in the league. The Wolf Pack’s front seven, anchored by veteran lineman Marcus Bellon and linebacker Drue Watts, must find a way to contain Boise’s rushing attack, which averages over 180 yards per game. This will require gap discipline and sure tackling — two areas that have been inconsistent through the first half of the season. The secondary, led by cornerback Isaiah Essissima, will be tasked with handling Boise’s talented receiving corps, and limiting explosive plays will be paramount if Nevada hopes to keep the game within reach. Special teams could play a pivotal role, as Nevada’s punter Matt Freem has been a bright spot with his ability to flip field position, but the Wolf Pack have struggled in the kicking game, missing several field goals from makeable range. Intangibly, Nevada’s greatest weapon may be the emotional energy of playing at home in front of a passionate crowd eager to see a program resurgence. The team has shown flashes of competitive fire, especially in close conference games where their defense managed to force key turnovers, but consistency remains elusive. For Nevada to make this contest competitive, they must start fast, establish balance early, and avoid falling behind — a scenario that would force Purdy into obvious passing situations and expose their protection weaknesses. While the odds heavily favor Boise State, Nevada’s path to success lies in playing loose, forcing mistakes, and capitalizing on momentum swings. In short, the Wolf Pack need to turn this into a scrappy, high-effort battle where grit and home-field energy can at least make the Broncos earn every inch of their inevitable victory.
41-yard FG by McFadden is GOOD🙌
— Nevada Football (@NevadaFootball) October 19, 2025
Pack trails 24-22.#RiseTogether pic.twitter.com/n6Nkl9xU0X
Boise State vs Nevada Prop Picks (AI)
Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Broncos and Wolf Pack play there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at Mackay Stadium in Oct can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
Boise State vs Nevada Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over exorbitant amounts of data from every past game between the Broncos and Wolf Pack and using recursive machine learning and impressive AI to analyze the data to a single cover probability.
Remi has been most keyed in on the linear correlation of weight knucklehead sportsbettors often put on Boise State’s strength factors between a Broncos team going up against a possibly deflated Wolf Pack team. We’ve found the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
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Below is our current AI Boise State vs Nevada picks, computer picks Broncos vs Wolf Pack, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
| DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CFB schedule.
Boise State Betting Trends
Boise State enters this contest with strong home-field dominance historically and has consistently out-performed the spread on the road when playing at this level — despite occasional coverage misses, the Broncos remain one of the more reliable ATS plays in the Mountain West when favored.
Nevada Betting Trends
Nevada has struggled to cover games as the home underdog of late, posting one of the lowest ATS success rates in the league when facing ranked or highly favored opponents — the Wolf Pack have covered fewer than 40 percent of such games in recent seasons.
Broncos vs. Wolf Pack Matchup Trends
In this rivalry series, the over/under has been hit in six of the last seven meetings, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring than the lines imply; moreover, when Nevada plays Boise State at home, the Wolf Pack have been surprisingly more competitive than their record suggests, covering two of the last four despite being double-digit underdogs.
Boise State vs. Nevada Game Info
Boise State vs Nevada starts on October 24, 2025 at 10:00 PM EST.
Venue: Mackay Stadium.
Spread: Nevada -4.5
Moneyline: Boise State +162, Nevada -196
Over/Under: 49.5
Boise State: (5-2) | Nevada: (1-6)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: D. Riley under 1.5 Total Touchdowns.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
In this rivalry series, the over/under has been hit in six of the last seven meetings, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring than the lines imply; moreover, when Nevada plays Boise State at home, the Wolf Pack have been surprisingly more competitive than their record suggests, covering two of the last four despite being double-digit underdogs.
BOISE trend: Boise State enters this contest with strong home-field dominance historically and has consistently out-performed the spread on the road when playing at this level — despite occasional coverage misses, the Broncos remain one of the more reliable ATS plays in the Mountain West when favored.
NEVADA trend: Nevada has struggled to cover games as the home underdog of late, posting one of the lowest ATS success rates in the league when facing ranked or highly favored opponents — the Wolf Pack have covered fewer than 40 percent of such games in recent seasons.
See our latest CFB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
Boise State vs. Nevada Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through loads of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Boise State vs Nevada trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
| BOISE Moneyline | +162 |
|---|---|
| NEVADA Moneyline | -196 |
| BOISE Spread | +4.5 |
| NEVADA Spread | -4.5 |
| Over / Under | 49.5 |
Boise State vs Nevada Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec 5, 2025 7:00PM EST
Troy Trojans
James Madison Dukes
12/5/25 7PM
TROY
JMAD
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–
–
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+1300
-2500
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+23.5 (-108)
-23.5 (-112)
|
O 46.5 (-110)
U 46.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Dec 5, 2025 7:00PM EST
Kennesaw State Owls
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
12/5/25 7PM
KENSAW
JAXST
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–
–
|
-135
+110
|
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
|
O 60.5 (-110)
U 60.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Dec 5, 2025 8:00PM EST
North Texas Mean Green
Tulane Green Wave
12/5/25 8PM
NOTEX
TULANE
|
–
–
|
-130
+110
|
-2.5 (-112)
+2.5 (-108)
|
O 66.5 (-115)
U 66.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 5, 2025 8:01PM EST
UNLV Rebels
Boise State Broncos
12/5/25 8:01PM
UNLV
BOISE
|
–
–
|
+184
-220
|
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
|
O 58.5 (-115)
U 58.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 12:00PM EST
Miami Ohio Redhawks
Western Michigan Broncos
12/6/25 12PM
MIAOH
WMICH
|
–
–
|
-132
|
-1.5 (-115)
|
O 42.5 (-115)
U 42.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 12:00PM EST
BYU Cougars
Texas Tech Red Raiders
12/6/25 12PM
BYU
TXTECH
|
–
–
|
+430
-560
|
+12.5 (-105)
-12.5 (-115)
|
O 49.5 (-108)
U 49.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 4:00PM EST
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
12/6/25 4PM
UGA
BAMA
|
–
–
|
-134
+114
|
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
|
O 48.5 (-106)
U 48.5 (-114)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 8:00PM EST
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
12/6/25 8PM
DUKE
UVA
|
–
–
|
+156
-186
|
+3.5 (-102)
-3.5 (-120)
|
O 57.5 (-115)
U 57.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 8:01PM EST
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
12/6/25 8:01PM
IND
OHIOST
|
–
–
|
+158
-188
|
+4.5 (-115)
-4.5 (-105)
|
O 47.5 (-114)
U 47.5 (-106)
|
|
|
Dec 13, 2025 3:00PM EST
Army Black Knights
Navy Midshipmen
12/13/25 3PM
ARMY
NAVY
|
–
–
|
+172
-210
|
+4.5 (-105)
-4.5 (-115)
|
O 38.5 (-110)
U 38.5 (-110)
|
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers Boise State Broncos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack on October 24, 2025 at Mackay Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CFB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
| LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO@KSTATE | COLO +17.5 | 54.0% | 4 | WIN |
| PSU@RUT | RUT +14 | 52.8% | 1 | WIN |
| OHIOST@MICH | MICH +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| VATECH@UVA | VATECH +8 | 57.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| NWEST@ILL | LUKE ALTMYER UNDER 19.5 PASS COMP | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| ORE@WAS | DEMOND WILLIAMS JR UNDER 43.5 RUSH YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| MIAMI@VATECH | VATECH +18.5 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| GAST@TROY | TROY -9.5 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| DEL@WAKE | DEL +18 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| NMEX@AF | NMEX -3.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WASHST@JMAD | WASHST +14.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
| ILL@WISC | WISC +9 | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WKY@LSU | WKY +23.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| WASH@UCLA | DEMOND WILLIAMS UNDER 27.5 PASS ATT | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| TCU@HOU | AMARE THOMAS OVER 69.5 RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| TEX@UGA | NATE FRAZIER UNDER 65.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| PUR@WASH | ANTONIO HARRIS UNDER 73.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| OKLA@BAMA | UNDER 46 | 52.4% | 2 | WIN |
| UVA@DUKE | DUKE -3.5 | 54.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| OKLA@BAMA | BAMA -6 | 54.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| OREGST@TULSA | OREGST -120 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| UTEP@MIZZST | MIZZST -5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| COLOST@NMEX | NMEX -14 | 57.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| PSU@MICHST | MICHST +7.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| MISSST@MIZZOU | MISSST +7.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
| FAU@TULANE | FAU +17.5 | 56.0% | 6 | WIN |
| NCST@MIAMI | NCST +15.5 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| KENTST@AKRON | AKRON -6.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| JAXST@UTEP | JAXST -105 | 57.0% | 7 | WIN |
| FSU@CLEM | CLEM -118 | 57.1% | 5 | WIN |
| UNLV@COLOST | UNLV -4 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| OREG@IOWA | IOWA +6.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NEB +1.5 | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| KENSAW@NMEXST | NMEXST +10 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
| STNFRD@UNC | STNFRD +7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| DUKE@UCONN | UCONN +8.5 | 57.9% | 7 | WIN |
| NEVADA@UTAHST | NEVADA +9.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| SAMST@OREGST | SAMST +21 | 57.7% | 7 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NICO IAMALEAVA UNDER 180.5 PASS YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@UCF | HOU -112 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
| GASTHRN@APPST | GASTHRN +180 | 36.5% | 2 | WIN |
| KENTST@BALLST | BALLST -2.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| WAKE@FSU | WAKE +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| WYO@SDGST | SDGST -10.5 | 56.7% | 7 | WIN |
| OKLA@TENN | TENN -130 | 58.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| GATECH@NCST | GATECH -5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| MIAMI@SMU | MIAMI -10 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| IND@MD | MD +21.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| CINCY@UTAH | CINCY +11 | 57.6% | 7 | LOSS |
| OLDDOM@LAMON | LAMON +17 | 58.4% | 8 | LOSS |
| VANDY@TEXAS | OVER 46.5 | 53.7% | 2 | WIN |