New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CFB Lines & Props (Oct 14)
Updated: 2025-10-07T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
New Mexico State travels to face Liberty on October 14, 2025, in a pivotal Conference USA matchup that could shift momentum in the league standings. Liberty enters as a double-digit favorite at home, riding on historical dominance and the weight of expectations.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.

GAME INFO
Date: Oct 14, 2025
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Williams Stadium
Flames Record: (2-4)
Aggies Record: (3-2)
OPENING ODDS
NMEXST Moneyline: +330
LIB Moneyline: -426
NMEXST Spread: +10.5
LIB Spread: -10.5
Over/Under: 46.5
NMEXST
Betting Trends
- New Mexico State has been vulnerable on the road, going 2–7 straight up in its last nine road games versus Liberty, and just 2–7 ATS in its last nine on the road in general.
LIB
Betting Trends
- Liberty is 14–2 straight up in its last 16 home games, and has been dominant in October home games, reinforcing the strength of its home-field edge.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Head-to-head, Liberty has largely controlled this matchup: New Mexico State is 1–4 SU in its last five games against Liberty, and the Aggies are 2–7 SU in their last 9 games when playing Liberty. In other words, the Flames have been the favored side in this series for a while.
NMEXST vs. LIB
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Fife under 239.5 Passing Yards.
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New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction & Odds:
Free CFB Betting Insights for 10/14/25
Their quarterback, Logan Fife, has displayed improved composure and command, spreading the ball effectively to keep opposing defenses guessing. Running back Ahmonte Watkins and the offensive line will need to control tempo and prevent Liberty from dictating pace with their aggressive front seven. On defense, the Aggies will focus on disrupting Liberty’s timing in the passing game, closing gaps quickly, and forcing the Flames to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Flames’ defensive line, featuring speed off the edge and depth inside, will aim to collapse the pocket and contain Fife’s mobility, while their secondary must stay disciplined against a balanced Aggie offense. Both teams know the stakes are high — Liberty must protect home turf and regain its offensive rhythm, while New Mexico State seeks to prove it can contend consistently in CUSA by finally toppling a familiar rival. The game will likely hinge on third-down efficiency, turnover differential, and special teams execution, as both sides have shown the potential to swing momentum with explosive plays or costly mistakes. Expect Liberty to lean on its experience, crowd energy, and defensive discipline to hold serve at home, while the Aggies will look to carry their recent momentum and opportunistic defense into what could be a season-defining upset bid. If New Mexico State can control the pace and win the turnover battle, this matchup could be far closer than the odds suggest, but Liberty’s proven home dominance and track record in October games give them a narrow edge in what should be an entertaining and physical CUSA battle.
First week 8️⃣ game of the @NCAAFootball schedule?
— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) October 12, 2025
Aggies. Flames. #WeekdayCUSA.
Tune in Tuesday.#AggieUp x #RideForTheBrand pic.twitter.com/07mSWvGgns
New Mexico State Aggies CFB Preview
The New Mexico State Aggies enter their October 14, 2025, showdown against Liberty as determined underdogs with something to prove, looking to break a frustrating historical trend in this series while continuing their climb up the Conference USA standings. Head coach Tony Sanchez has emphasized discipline, tempo control, and composure on the road — all of which will be vital in a hostile Williams Stadium environment where Liberty has thrived for years. The Aggies have found renewed life in recent weeks, particularly after their 37–10 victory over Sam Houston, where their defense and opportunistic offense combined for one of their most complete performances of the season. Quarterback Logan Fife has shown steady progress, improving in accuracy, poise under pressure, and chemistry with his receivers. His ability to extend plays and avoid turnovers will be essential against Liberty’s aggressive pass rush. Wideouts Kordell David and Trent Hudson have emerged as reliable downfield threats, while tight end Thomaz Whitford has been a key safety valve in short-yardage and red-zone situations. On the ground, the Aggies will look to Ahmonte Watkins and Star Thomas to generate early success and keep Liberty’s defensive front honest. Establishing a consistent run game not only takes pressure off Fife but also allows New Mexico State to control time of possession, a critical factor when playing a team as explosive as Liberty.
Defensively, the Aggies must focus on taking away Liberty’s big-play ability, particularly on early downs, forcing them into long-yardage situations where they can unleash their blitz packages. Their front seven, led by linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Torren Union, will need to maintain gap integrity and prevent Liberty’s backs from breaking free into the second level. The secondary has improved at limiting explosive plays, but they’ll be tested by Liberty’s vertical passing game, which often uses motion and play-action to stretch coverage. Special teams could also play a pivotal role — New Mexico State can’t afford missed opportunities or field position lapses that allow Liberty to dictate tempo. Mental toughness will be the deciding factor for the Aggies, who have struggled on the road but appear more balanced and confident than in past years. To secure a statement win, they’ll need to execute a disciplined game plan built around sustained drives, defensive opportunism, and limiting costly penalties. If Fife can continue his upward trajectory and the Aggies’ defense maintains its physical edge, New Mexico State could finally flip the script in this matchup and walk away from Lynchburg with a signature conference win that signals the program’s continued rise under Sanchez.

Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Liberty Flames CFB Preview
The Liberty Flames return to Williams Stadium for their October 14, 2025, clash with the New Mexico State Aggies, aiming to defend one of the strongest home-field advantages in Conference USA and continue their dominance in this head-to-head series. Under head coach Jamey Chadwell, Liberty’s identity remains rooted in efficiency, tempo control, and creative offensive design, though the team’s 2025 campaign has featured moments of inconsistency that they’ll look to smooth out against the Aggies. At home, the Flames are a different animal — their 14–2 straight-up record in their last 16 games in Lynchburg reflects both their preparation and the crowd energy that fuels their aggressive play style. Offensively, Liberty’s success hinges on the performance of quarterback Kaidon Salter, whose dual-threat capability allows the Flames to attack defenses in multiple ways. Salter’s chemistry with receivers C.J. Daniels and Treon Webb provides explosive potential on every snap, while the backfield rotation led by Quinton Cooley gives the offense a reliable ground component capable of grinding down opponents. However, the offensive line must maintain consistency, especially against New Mexico State’s disruptive front seven, which thrives on creating backfield chaos and generating turnovers. Expect Liberty to emphasize early rhythm with short, quick passes and designed quarterback runs to wear down the Aggies’ defensive front before opening up the deep passing game.
Defensively, the Flames remain one of the more disciplined units in CUSA, blending speed and physicality across all levels. Linebacker Mike Smith and safety Brylan Green anchor a defense that prioritizes tackling efficiency and takeaway opportunities, both of which could be decisive in this matchup. Their secondary will be tasked with containing Aggies quarterback Logan Fife and his growing confidence in spreading the ball across the field, while the defensive line looks to collapse the pocket and force hurried throws. On special teams, kicker Nick Brown and returner Shedro Louis provide stability and explosiveness that could swing field position battles in Liberty’s favor. The key for the Flames will be to dictate pace — staying ahead of the chains, controlling time of possession, and capitalizing on scoring opportunities rather than settling for field goals. If Liberty can maintain its trademark balance and composure, this home game provides an opportunity to not only get back on track but also reaffirm its status as a CUSA contender. The Flames’ history against New Mexico State, their defensive depth, and their adaptability under Chadwell make them the favorites, but they’ll need to avoid slow starts and protect the football to prevent the Aggies from hanging around. With execution and discipline, Liberty is poised to extend its home dominance and keep its season trending upward.
𝐅𝐥𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤: Game 7
— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) October 12, 2025
🔥 @jaylinbelford
🔥 @seneca_moore
🔥 @ColtonMcCoy_13 pic.twitter.com/O6UDQtE65U
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prop Picks (AI)
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction (AI)

Remi, our AI sports algorithm, has been pouring over mountains of data from every angle between the Aggies and Flames and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most fixated on the linear correlation of emphasis knucklehead sportsbettors tend to put on New Mexico State’s strength factors between a Aggies team going up against a possibly rested Flames team. In reality, the true game analytics appear to reflect a strong lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CFB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI New Mexico State vs Liberty picks, computer picks Aggies vs Flames, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
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CFB | 10/21 | KENSAW@FIU | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 3 |
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CFB | 10/21 | WKY@LATECH | UNLOCK THIS PICK | 2 |
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These picks update as information changes—injury reports, weather, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CFB schedule.
Aggies Betting Trends
New Mexico State has been vulnerable on the road, going 2–7 straight up in its last nine road games versus Liberty, and just 2–7 ATS in its last nine on the road in general.
Flames Betting Trends
Liberty is 14–2 straight up in its last 16 home games, and has been dominant in October home games, reinforcing the strength of its home-field edge.
Aggies vs. Flames Matchup Trends
Head-to-head, Liberty has largely controlled this matchup: New Mexico State is 1–4 SU in its last five games against Liberty, and the Aggies are 2–7 SU in their last 9 games when playing Liberty. In other words, the Flames have been the favored side in this series for a while.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Game Info
What time does New Mexico State vs Liberty start on October 14, 2025?
New Mexico State vs Liberty starts on October 14, 2025 at 7:00 PM EST.
Where is New Mexico State vs Liberty being played?
Venue: Williams Stadium.
What are the opening odds for New Mexico State vs Liberty?
Spread: Liberty -10.5
Moneyline: New Mexico State +330, Liberty -426
Over/Under: 46.5
What are the records for New Mexico State vs Liberty?
New Mexico State: (3-2) | Liberty: (2-4)
What is the AI best bet for New Mexico State vs Liberty?
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: L. Fife under 239.5 Passing Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
What are New Mexico State vs Liberty trending bets?
Head-to-head, Liberty has largely controlled this matchup: New Mexico State is 1–4 SU in its last five games against Liberty, and the Aggies are 2–7 SU in their last 9 games when playing Liberty. In other words, the Flames have been the favored side in this series for a while.
What are New Mexico State trending bets?
NMEXST trend: New Mexico State has been vulnerable on the road, going 2–7 straight up in its last nine road games versus Liberty, and just 2–7 ATS in its last nine on the road in general.
What are Liberty trending bets?
LIB trend: Liberty is 14–2 straight up in its last 16 home games, and has been dominant in October home games, reinforcing the strength of its home-field edge.
Where can I find AI Picks for New Mexico State vs Liberty?
See our latest CFB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through mountains of data points on each line. In fact, anytime the New Mexico State vs Liberty trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing observations to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme altitude rarely follow normal, predictable patterns.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Opening Odds
NMEXST Moneyline:
+330 LIB Moneyline: -426
NMEXST Spread: +10.5
LIB Spread: -10.5
Over/Under: 46.5
New Mexico State vs Liberty Live Odds
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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O 58.5 (-112)
U 58.5 (-108)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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-205
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O 63.5 (-108)
U 63.5 (-112)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
UCLA Bruins
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O 54.5 (-115)
U 54.5 (-105)
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+230
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+7 (-105)
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Ohio Bobcats
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Oct 25, 2025 12:00PM EDT
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U 53.5 (-105)
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Ole Miss Rebels
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O 56.5 (-112)
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U 49.5 (-115)
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O 46.5 (-108)
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+455
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U 62.5 (-108)
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+164
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U 53.5 (-105)
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-700
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O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
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San Diego State Aztecs
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-155
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-3 (-110)
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O 47.5 (-115)
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+114
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O 51.5 (-115)
U 51.5 (-105)
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O 56.5 (-110)
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–
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+102
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O 41.5 (-105)
U 41.5 (-115)
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Oct 25, 2025 3:30PM EDT
UL Monroe Warhawks
USM Golden Eagles
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MONROE
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–
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+340
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O 50.5 (-112)
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Oct 25, 2025 4:00PM EDT
Oklahoma State Cowboys
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TXTECH
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–
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+2800
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U 66.5 (-105)
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Texas Longhorns
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–
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-270
+220
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-7 (-105)
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O 44.5 (-115)
U 44.5 (-105)
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–
–
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-650
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-15.5 (-110)
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O 54.5 (-118)
U 54.5 (-102)
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Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
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OREG
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–
–
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+33.5 (-108)
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O 44.5 (-112)
U 44.5 (-108)
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|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Troy Trojans
10/25/25 7PM
UL
TROY
|
–
–
|
+280
-355
|
+8.5 (-108)
-8.5 (-112)
|
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Stanford Cardinal
Miami Hurricanes
10/25/25 7PM
STNFRD
MIAMI
|
–
–
|
+4000
-30000
|
+30.5 (-115)
-30.5 (-105)
|
O 45.5 (-105)
U 45.5 (-115)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:00PM EDT
Georgia Southern Eagles
Arkansas State Red Wolves
10/25/25 7PM
GASO
ARKST
|
–
–
|
+100
-120
|
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
|
O 63.5 (-105)
U 63.5 (-115)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan State Spartans
10/25/25 7:30PM
MICH
MICHST
|
–
–
|
-625
+455
|
-14.5 (-105)
+14.5 (-115)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Texas A&M Aggies
LSU Tigers
10/25/25 7:30PM
TEXAM
LSU
|
–
–
|
-142
+120
|
-2.5 (-115)
+2.5 (-105)
|
O 47.5 (-115)
U 47.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Boston College Eagles
Louisville Cardinals
10/25/25 7:30PM
BC
LVILLE
|
–
–
|
+1400
-3200
|
+25.5 (-110)
-25.5 (-110)
|
O 55.5 (-102)
U 55.5 (-118)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Colorado State Rams
Wyoming Cowboys
10/25/25 7:30PM
COLOST
WYO
|
–
–
|
+180
-218
|
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-110)
|
O 46.5 (-112)
U 46.5 (-108)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 7:45PM EDT
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
10/25/25 7:45PM
TENN
UK
|
–
–
|
-345
+275
|
-9.5 (-108)
+9.5 (-112)
|
O 54.5 (-110)
U 54.5 (-110)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 8:00PM EDT
Houston Cougars
Arizona State Sun Devils
10/25/25 8PM
HOU
ARIZST
|
–
–
|
+230
-285
|
+7.5 (-115)
-7.5 (-105)
|
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
|
|
Oct 25, 2025 10:15PM EDT
Colorado Buffaloes
Utah Utes
10/25/25 10:15PM
COLO
UTAH
|
–
–
|
+410
-550
|
+13.5 (-110)
-13.5 (-110)
|
O 49.5 (-112)
U 49.5 (-108)
|
|
Oct 28, 2025 8:00PM EDT
James Madison Dukes
Texas State Bobcats
10/28/25 8PM
JMAD
TEXST
|
–
–
|
-275
+220
|
-7.5 (-104)
+7.5 (-118)
|
O 60.5 (-112)
U 60.5 (-108)
|
|
Oct 30, 2025 7:30PM EDT
Tulane Green Wave
UTSA Roadrunners
10/30/25 7:30PM
TULANE
UTSA
|
–
–
|
-200
+164
|
-5.5 (-110)
+5.5 (-110)
|
O 52.5 (-112)
U 52.5 (-108)
|
|
Nov 1, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Penn State Nittany Lions
Ohio State Buckeyes
11/1/25 12PM
PSU
OHIOST
|
–
–
|
+660
-1050
|
+17.5 (-115)
-17.5 (-105)
|
O 47.5 (-110)
U 47.5 (-110)
|
|
Nov 1, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Miami Hurricanes
SMU Mustangs
11/1/25 12PM
MIAMI
SMU
|
–
–
|
-430
+330
|
-10.5 (-110)
+10.5 (-110)
|
O 51.5 (-110)
U 51.5 (-110)
|
|
Nov 1, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Oklahoma Sooners
Tennessee Volunteers
11/1/25 12PM
OKLA
TENN
|
–
–
|
-105
-114
|
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-106)
|
O 53.5 (-112)
U 53.5 (-108)
|
|
Nov 1, 2025 12:00PM EDT
Vanderbilt Commodores
Texas Longhorns
11/1/25 12PM
VANDY
TEXAS
|
–
–
|
+150
-182
|
+3.5 (-106)
-3.5 (-114)
|
O 45.5 (-110)
U 45.5 (-110)
|
|
Nov 1, 2025 3:30PM EDT
Georgia Bulldogs
Florida Gators
11/1/25 3:30PM
UGA
FLA
|
–
–
|
-300
+240
|
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
|
O 50.5 (-112)
U 50.5 (-108)
|
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames on October 14, 2025 at Williams Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CFB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
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LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|
FSU@STNFRD | STNFRD +18 | 56.6% | 6 | WIN |
WASHST@UVA | WASHST +17.5 | 58.8% | 8 | WIN |
NEVADA@NMEX | NEVADA +13.5 | 57.8% | 7 | WIN |
TEXAS@UK | ARCH MANNING UNDER 1.5 PASS TD | 56.1% | 6 | WIN |
ARMY@TULANE | ARMY +10 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
SJST@UTAHST | SJST +4 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
LVILLE@MIAMI | LVILLE +12.5 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
LVILLE@MIAMI | CJ DANIELS UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS | 54.4 | 4 | LOSS |
DEL@JAXST | DEL -2.5 | 57.6% | 6 | LOSS |
UTEP@SAMST | UTEP -2.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
FIU@WKY | FIU +10.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
ARKST@SALA | ARKST +7.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
ARKST@SALA | JAYLEN RAYNOR UNDER 40.5 LONGEST PASS COMP | 53.3% | 3 | WIN |
SJST@WYO | SJST -120 | 59.8% | 7 | LOSS |
UMASS@KENTST | KENTST -135 | 60.2% | 6 | WIN |
NOILL@EMICH | EMICH +2.5 | 53.9% | 3 | WIN |
BYU@ARIZ | ARIZ +2.5 | 54.2% | 3 | LOSS |
OKLA@TEXAS | OKLA +2.5 | 54.7% | 4 | LOSS |
NMEX@BOISE | NMEX +16.5 | 56.4% | 6 | WIN |
WAKE@OREGST | WAKE -2.5 | 56.7% | 6 | WIN |
ULMON@COASTAL | ULMON -2.5 | 56.8% | 6 | LOSS |
IOWA@WISC | WISC +4 | 54.8% | 4 | LOSS |
TOLEDO@BGREEN | TOLEDO -10 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
SFLA@NOTEX | SFLA +2.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
FRESNO@COLOST | RICHIE ANDERSON III LONGEST RECEPTION UNDER 16.5 | 54.4% | 4 | LOSS |
JAXST@SAMST | SAMST +7.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
USM@GAS | GAS +3.5 | 57.4% | 7 | WIN |
LIB@UTEP | UTEP +2 | 54.5% | 4 | LOSS |
SALA@TROY | SALA -118 | 55.2% | 4 | LOSS |
TULSA@MEMP | MEMP -20.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
JMAD@GAST | GAST +20.5 | 54.6% | 4 | WIN |
WAKE@VATECH | VATECH -5.5 | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
UNLV@WYO | WYO +4.5 | 55.5% | 5 | LOSS |
PSU@UCLA | PSU -24.5 | 56.3% | 6 | LOSS |
TXSTSM@ARKST | TXSTSM -13 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
UVA@LVILLE | ISAAC BROWN OVER 70.5 RUSH YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
WVU@BYU | WVU +20.5 | 54.7% | 4 | WIN |
SAMST@NMEXST | SAMST -1.5 | 54.1% | 3 | LOSS |
EMICH@CMICH | CMICH -148 | 62.8% | 7 | WIN |
SDGST@NOILL | SDGST -118 | 55.7% | 3 | WIN |
BAMA@GEORGIA | GEORGIA -125 | 58.7% | 7 | LOSS |
TENN@MISSST | MISSST +7.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
UK@SC | SC -5.5 | 54.8% | 4 | WIN |
WKY@MIZZST | MIZZST +4.5 | 55.6% | 6 | LOSS |
JAXST@USM | USM -3.5 | 56.0% | 5 | WIN |
NMEXST@NMEX | NMEX -14.5 | 56.9% | 6 | WIN |
ARIZ@IOWAST | ROCCO BECHT UNDER 1.5 PASS TDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
TCU@ARIZST | JOSH HOOVER PASS YDS UNDER 287.5 | 53.4% | 3 | WIN |
ARIZST@BAYLOR | BAYLOR -130 | 58.4% | 6 | LOSS |
WYO@COLO | WYO +13.5 | 54.1% | 3 | LOSS |
TULANE@OLEMISS | MISS -11.5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |