The October 11, 2025 matchup between the Air Force Falcons and the UNLV Rebels at Allegiant Stadium features two programs moving in very different directions — one fighting to salvage its season, the other looking to keep its perfect record intact and cement itself as a true Mountain West powerhouse. Air Force, sitting at 1–4, has endured a rocky campaign defined by defensive breakdowns, uncharacteristic turnovers, and offensive inconsistency within its usually efficient triple-option system. The Falcons’ traditionally disciplined and methodical attack has struggled to sustain drives, and without their typical time-of-possession dominance, opponents have taken advantage of a fatigued defense late in games. Quarterback Liam Szarka has been the lone bright spot for Air Force, providing spark both through the air and on the ground, but the offense’s rhythm has faltered behind an offensive line that has failed to win consistently at the point of attack. Their success this week hinges entirely on their ability to execute their bread-and-butter — limit mistakes, control tempo, and keep the explosive UNLV offense off the field. Defensively, Air Force’s usually reliable unit has allowed too many big plays, surrendering over 30 points per game during their recent stretch, and the lack of interior disruption has exposed the back end. They’ll need a near-perfect game plan to slow down a UNLV offense that’s averaging almost 37 points per contest and operating at peak efficiency under first-year head coach Dan Mullen.

The Rebels, now 5–0 and ranked among the best Group of Five programs in the nation, have been the Mountain West’s most balanced team. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has quickly developed into a reliable distributor, managing games with maturity while still pushing the ball downfield when opportunities arise. His connection with wide receivers Ricky White and Jacob De Jesus has been one of the most explosive in the conference, combining speed, spacing, and timing to stretch defenses horizontally and vertically. Complementing that is a powerful rushing attack led by Jai’Den Thomas, who averages over five yards per carry and has shown the ability to break tackles and grind out tough yards between the tackles. The Rebels’ offensive line, one of their most improved units, has allowed Colandrea time to work through progressions and given Thomas clear running lanes to control tempo. Defensively, UNLV has played opportunistic football, thriving on takeaways and red-zone stands. Their front seven, led by interior disruptor Darius Johnson and linebacker Jackson Woodard, has done an excellent job of limiting chunk runs — something that will be critical against Air Force’s option-heavy scheme. However, maintaining assignment discipline will be paramount, as one misstep against the Falcons’ triple-option can turn into a 40-yard gash. The key matchup lies between Air Force’s commitment to ball control and UNLV’s explosiveness; if the Rebels jump ahead early, they could force Air Force out of its comfort zone, something the Falcons’ offense is not built to handle. For UNLV, the challenge will be patience — staying focused against an unconventional opponent that thrives on grinding down the clock. Expect Mullen to use tempo strategically, pushing the pace after turnovers or three-and-outs to wear down Air Force’s defense. Special teams could also swing momentum; both teams have reliable kickers, but UNLV’s dynamic return unit has already changed games this season. In the end, this contest likely comes down to execution and tempo. Air Force must dictate rhythm and play a near-flawless game to keep this close, while UNLV will look to use its speed, depth, and offensive versatility to overwhelm the Falcons. If the Rebels can sustain drives, protect the football, and stay sharp against the option, they should extend their unbeaten run and strengthen their grip atop the Mountain West standings.