The September 20, 2025, game between the Troy Trojans and the Buffalo Bulls has all the makings of a tightly contested matchup between two programs that, while not national powers, are each looking to carve out early-season credibility and build momentum toward conference play. Buffalo enters this clash with confidence after edging Kent State 31-28 in a game that tested their resilience and ability to finish late, bouncing back from a tough road loss to Minnesota and showing that their offense can produce when it matters most. Averaging close to 28 points per game, the Bulls have leaned on a balanced approach, mixing the run with an efficient passing game while maintaining strong red-zone efficiency, a key factor that has kept them competitive even in tight games. Defensively, Buffalo has shown the ability to limit explosive plays, but their near-miss against Kent State exposed vulnerabilities that a team like Troy could look to exploit, particularly if the Trojans can sustain long drives and capitalize on mistakes. Troy, on the other hand, comes into this contest with optimism of its own, having posted encouraging early-season numbers that reflect a capable offense and a defense that can generate pressure, though their level of competition to date has not tested them to the degree that Buffalo will. The Trojans’ offensive identity rests on versatility, with playmakers both in the backfield and at wide receiver, and their ability to mix explosive downfield plays with a grinding ground game gives them multiple paths to success.

Defensively, Troy has been steady but inconsistent, showing stretches of control but also lapses in coverage that stronger opponents have punished, and facing Buffalo’s offense on the road will demand sharper execution. Special teams could play a pivotal role, as hidden yardage and field position are likely to be decisive in what projects as a one-score game. From a betting perspective, Buffalo has the home-field advantage and a proven ability to win close games, which will likely make them a modest favorite, though Troy has shown enough explosiveness to make taking points with the Trojans an attractive option for bettors who see value in the underdog. The total could go either way depending on pace: Buffalo’s offense is capable of scoring efficiently, and Troy has the weapons to push the game toward the Over if they find rhythm early, but if defenses step up and turnovers stall drives, the Under remains viable. Ultimately, this game will hinge on execution in critical situations—third downs, red-zone trips, and turnover margin—and whichever team performs best under pressure will likely walk away with the victory. Buffalo’s edge at home gives them the slight upper hand, but Troy has enough talent and momentum to make this one of the more intriguing and competitive Group of Five battles of the weekend.