NC State vs Duke Prediction — AI Finds CAN'T MISS CFB Lines & Props (Sep 20)
Updated: 2025-09-13T02:28:40.156150ZBy Remi at Leans.AI — AI picks for ATS, ML, OU & props
NC State enters this matchup as a 2.5-point underdog at Duke, with oddsmakers expecting a competitive game rather than a blowout. The over/under is set around 59 points, implying expectations for both teams to contribute offensively and for the scoring to be above average.
Get key insights, betting trends, and AI-powered predictions to help incorporate into your betting strategies.
GAME INFO
Date: Sep 20, 2025
Start Time: 4:00 PM EST
Venue: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium
Blue Devils Record: (1-2)
Wolfpack Record: (3-0)
OPENING ODDS
NCST Moneyline: +112
DUKE Moneyline: -133
NCST Spread: +2.5
DUKE Spread: -2.5
Over/Under: 59
NCST
Betting Trends
- NC State is 2-0 straight up to start the season, but their ATS performance is mixed; they have covered in some games but not consistently. One of their earlier games shows them favored by “NC State –2.5” vs. Virginia with a total of 52.5, indicating moderate expectations.
DUKE
Betting Trends
- Duke has struggled to cover spreads to date, entering this matchup with an 0-3 ATS record in their first three games. Despite having talent on offense, they have yet to satisfy betting expectations in terms of covering, especially when favorites or in close contests.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- The 2.5-point spread in favor of Duke suggests the market believes Duke has a slight edge at home, but also that the game is expected to be close. The relatively high Over/Under near 59 points hints that bettors expect both offenses to have opportunities and potentially some defensive lapses. Head-to-head historical data shows that in their recent matchups, NC State has an ATS win rate of 60% and games between the two tend to go Over in total points about 60% of the time.
NCST vs. DUKE
Best Prop Bet
- Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: W. Grimes under 46.5 Receiving Yards.
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NC State vs Duke Prediction & Odds:
Free CFB Betting Insights for 9/20/25
The September 20, 2025, matchup between NC State and Duke sets up as a fascinating early-season ACC battle that carries weight not only for bragging rights in the state of North Carolina but also for positioning in a league that often sees tight races in the middle of the pack. NC State comes in with momentum, having started the season with confidence and results that show both balance and discipline, while Duke is still searching for consistency after a shaky start that has left them winless against the spread despite flashes of promise offensively. The Wolfpack have leaned on a combination of steady quarterback play, a reliable ground game, and a defense that bends but rarely breaks, allowing them to manage clock, keep drives alive, and frustrate opponents by limiting explosive plays. Their ability to win on the line of scrimmage has been a difference-maker so far, and against Duke, they will again rely on trench dominance to control tempo and keep their offense in rhythm. Duke, meanwhile, has the talent to score quickly and put pressure on opposing defenses, but their struggles to finish drives and a defense that has too often yielded big plays at key moments have kept them from converting opportunities into results that satisfy expectations. Their 0-3 ATS record to start the season reflects a team that has not delivered in proportion to its perceived talent, and facing an NC State squad that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes, that trend could be problematic if it continues.
From a tactical standpoint, the game will hinge on whether Duke’s offense can sustain consistency against a disciplined NC State defense, and whether the Blue Devils can finally find a way to slow down an opponent on third downs. The line has Duke favored by less than a field goal, a sign that oddsmakers and bettors alike see this as close, and the total hovering around 59 points suggests that scoring opportunities should be available for both sides. For NC State, the keys will be avoiding turnovers, keeping Duke’s crowd quiet with sustained drives, and using their physicality to grind down the Blue Devils in the second half. For Duke, protecting the football, taking advantage of red-zone chances, and finding more balance between their running and passing game will be crucial to covering the spread and getting a much-needed win. Ultimately, this matchup feels like a test of execution and discipline: if NC State continues its early-season trend of steady, mistake-free football, they have the edge to pull the upset outright, but if Duke harnesses its home-field advantage and finally plays to its potential, they could notch a victory that would stabilize their season.
Get live CFB odds and precise AI CFB picks, predictions, and cover probabilities.
The next test awaits#1Pack1Goal pic.twitter.com/CL8u3gaWzD
— NC State Football (@PackFootball) September 15, 2025
NC State Wolfpack CFB Preview
The NC State Wolfpack head into Durham on September 20, 2025, eager to extend their strong start to the season and prove that their early success is not a fluke but the product of a disciplined and well-balanced team built to compete in the ACC. Entering with momentum and a 2-1 ATS record that suggests bettors can trust them to deliver as underdogs, the Wolfpack bring with them an identity centered on physicality in the trenches, a balanced offensive attack, and a defense that has shown the ability to make timely stops. Offensively, NC State has leaned on a ground game that can churn out consistent yardage, setting up manageable third downs and opening opportunities for their quarterback to distribute the ball effectively to a receiving corps that has improved in separation and execution. The offensive line has been a cornerstone of their success, giving both stability and confidence to the play calling, and against Duke’s defense that has struggled to contain explosive plays and win third-down situations, the Wolfpack will see opportunities to sustain long drives and control time of possession. On defense, NC State prides itself on discipline and tackling, two traits that will be essential against Duke’s offense, which has shown flashes of quick-strike capability but has lacked consistency.
The Wolfpack secondary will need to hold up against deep shots, but the pass rush has been strong enough to disrupt timing, and their ability to generate pressure without overcommitting will be key in forcing Duke into mistakes. Road games are always a challenge, and Wallace Wade Stadium can provide energy for the Blue Devils, but NC State has already shown composure on the road and will look to carry that into this matchup. Special teams could give them another edge, as NC State has been efficient in the kicking game and disciplined in coverage, limiting hidden-yardage mistakes that often swing close contests. From a betting perspective, NC State is viewed as a live underdog at +2.5, and their track record suggests that if they can keep the game close into the second half, they are more than capable of covering or even pulling off the outright win. Their formula will be straightforward: establish the run early, force Duke into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations, and avoid giving away field position with turnovers or penalties. If they execute with the same poise and efficiency they’ve displayed so far this season, the Wolfpack have every reason to believe they can not only challenge Duke but also walk away with another important victory that keeps them undefeated and positions them as a dark horse in the ACC.
Credit: USA TODAY/IMAGN
Duke Blue Devils CFB Preview
The Duke Blue Devils return to Wallace Wade Stadium on September 20, 2025, with urgency and opportunity as they host in-state rival NC State in a game that feels like an early-season crossroads. At 1-2 overall and 0-3 against the spread, Duke has underwhelmed relative to preseason expectations, but this matchup provides the perfect chance to reset in front of their home crowd and prove that they can deliver in conference play. Offensively, Duke has the talent to move the ball, with their quarterback showing flashes of rhythm in the passing game and a supporting cast of skill players capable of creating explosive plays in space, but inconsistency in sustaining drives and finishing in the red zone has plagued them. The offensive line will be under pressure to hold up against a disciplined NC State front seven that thrives on winning battles at the line of scrimmage, and how well they establish balance between the run and pass will determine whether they can dictate tempo. Defensively, Duke has been the source of the most concern, allowing opponents to convert critical third downs and failing to contain explosive plays at key moments, which has left them vulnerable despite competitive stretches of football.
To reverse that trend, the Blue Devils must get more out of their pass rush, forcing NC State’s quarterback into quicker decisions while tightening coverage to prevent easy completions that extend drives. Home-field advantage should not be underestimated; the energy of the crowd and the comfort of playing in Durham could give Duke the spark they need, especially if they can get off to a fast start. Special teams execution will also play a role, as Duke cannot afford hidden yardage mistakes or missed opportunities in what oddsmakers project as a close game with only a 2.5-point spread. From a betting perspective, Duke has been disappointing for backers so far, but as slight home favorites, they represent a team with upside if they finally deliver a complete game on both sides of the ball. The key will be discipline—avoiding turnovers, minimizing penalties, and staying sharp in late-game situations where they have faltered in the past. If the Blue Devils use their speed on offense to stress NC State’s defense and their defensive unit can elevate to at least contain the Wolfpack’s balanced attack, they are well positioned to secure not only a win but potentially their first cover of the season. This is a pivotal moment for Duke to show that they can rise to the occasion, defend their home turf, and reestablish themselves as a credible threat in the ACC despite their rocky start.
CHRIS RUMPH STRIP SACK!! 😈
— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) September 14, 2025
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/e4F2AMMrOA
NC State vs Duke Prop Picks (AI)
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of stats on each line. In fact, anytime the Wolfpack and Blue Devils play there’s always several intriguing angles to key in on. Not to mention games played at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium in Sep can often follow normal, predictable patterns.
NC State vs Duke Prediction (AI)
Remi, our AI sports genius, has been pouring over tons of data from every facet between the Wolfpack and Blue Devils and using recursive machine learning and industry leading AI to crunch the data to a single cover probability.
Oddly enough, we’ve seen the AI has been most keyed in on the trending emphasis emotional bettors often put on Duke’s strength factors between a Wolfpack team going up against a possibly healthy Blue Devils team. It appears the true game analytics might reflect a slight lean against one Vegas line specifically.
Unlock this in-depth AI prediction and all of our CFB AI picks for FREE now.
Below is our current AI NC State vs Duke picks, computer picks Wolfpack vs Blue Devils, best bets, model edges, confidence ratings.
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DATE | GAME | LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE PICKS LOCKED - SEE NOW | ||||||
These picks update as information changes—injury reports, and market movement. Each line shows our model’s fair price, the edge versus the market, and a unit confidence rating (1–10). Odds and availability vary by sportsbook and time. Edges are computed against the listed price; value may change after line moves. Always shop for the best number. See the full CFB schedule.
NC State Betting Trends
NC State is 2-0 straight up to start the season, but their ATS performance is mixed; they have covered in some games but not consistently. One of their earlier games shows them favored by “NC State –2.5” vs. Virginia with a total of 52.5, indicating moderate expectations.
Duke Betting Trends
Duke has struggled to cover spreads to date, entering this matchup with an 0-3 ATS record in their first three games. Despite having talent on offense, they have yet to satisfy betting expectations in terms of covering, especially when favorites or in close contests.
Wolfpack vs. Blue Devils Matchup Trends
The 2.5-point spread in favor of Duke suggests the market believes Duke has a slight edge at home, but also that the game is expected to be close. The relatively high Over/Under near 59 points hints that bettors expect both offenses to have opportunities and potentially some defensive lapses. Head-to-head historical data shows that in their recent matchups, NC State has an ATS win rate of 60% and games between the two tend to go Over in total points about 60% of the time.
NC State vs. Duke Game Info
NC State vs Duke starts on September 20, 2025 at 4:00 PM EST.
Venue: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Spread: Duke -2.5
Moneyline: NC State +112, Duke -133
Over/Under: 59
NC State: (3-0) | Duke: (1-2)
Remi's searched hard and found the best prop for this matchup: W. Grimes under 46.5 Receiving Yards.. Prices move—always shop for the best number.
The 2.5-point spread in favor of Duke suggests the market believes Duke has a slight edge at home, but also that the game is expected to be close. The relatively high Over/Under near 59 points hints that bettors expect both offenses to have opportunities and potentially some defensive lapses. Head-to-head historical data shows that in their recent matchups, NC State has an ATS win rate of 60% and games between the two tend to go Over in total points about 60% of the time.
NCST trend: NC State is 2-0 straight up to start the season, but their ATS performance is mixed; they have covered in some games but not consistently. One of their earlier games shows them favored by “NC State –2.5” vs. Virginia with a total of 52.5, indicating moderate expectations.
DUKE trend: Duke has struggled to cover spreads to date, entering this matchup with an 0-3 ATS record in their first three games. Despite having talent on offense, they have yet to satisfy betting expectations in terms of covering, especially when favorites or in close contests.
See our latest CFB picks and odds pages for 2025 to compare prices before you bet.
NC State vs. Duke Odds
AI algorithm Remi is pouring through tons of data points on each player. In fact, anytime the NC State vs Duke trends are analyzed, there’s always several intriguing trends to key in on. Not to mention games played at extreme temps almost always follow normal, predictable patterns.
| NCST Moneyline | +112 |
|---|---|
| DUKE Moneyline | -133 |
| NCST Spread | +2.5 |
| DUKE Spread | -2.5 |
| Over / Under | 59 |
NC State vs Duke Live Odds
| Games | PTS | ML | SPR | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec 5, 2025 7:00PM EST
Troy Trojans
James Madison Dukes
12/5/25 7PM
TROY
JMAD
|
–
–
|
+1300
-2800
|
+23.5 (-108)
-23.5 (-112)
|
O 46.5 (-115)
U 46.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 5, 2025 7:00PM EST
Kennesaw State Owls
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
12/5/25 7PM
KENSAW
JAXST
|
–
–
|
-135
+114
|
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
|
O 60.5 (-110)
U 60.5 (-110)
|
|
|
Dec 5, 2025 8:00PM EST
North Texas Mean Green
Tulane Green Wave
12/5/25 8PM
NOTEX
TULANE
|
–
–
|
-135
+114
|
-2.5 (-112)
+2.5 (-108)
|
O 66.5 (-112)
U 66.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Dec 5, 2025 8:01PM EST
UNLV Rebels
Boise State Broncos
12/5/25 8:01PM
UNLV
BOISE
|
–
–
|
+180
-218
|
+4.5 (-105)
-4.5 (-115)
|
O 59.5 (-105)
U 59.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 12:00PM EST
Miami Ohio Redhawks
Western Michigan Broncos
12/6/25 12PM
MIAOH
WMICH
|
–
–
|
-122
|
-1.5 (-112)
|
O 43.5 (-108)
U 43.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 12:00PM EST
BYU Cougars
Texas Tech Red Raiders
12/6/25 12PM
BYU
TXTECH
|
–
–
|
+400
-535
|
+12.5 (-108)
-12.5 (-112)
|
O 49.5 (-108)
U 49.5 (-112)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 4:00PM EST
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
12/6/25 4PM
UGA
BAMA
|
–
–
|
-135
+114
|
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
|
O 48.5 (-105)
U 48.5 (-115)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 8:00PM EST
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
12/6/25 8PM
DUKE
UVA
|
–
–
|
+150
-180
|
+4 (-112)
-4 (-108)
|
O 57.5 (-115)
U 57.5 (-105)
|
|
|
Dec 6, 2025 8:01PM EST
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
12/6/25 8:01PM
IND
OHIOST
|
–
–
|
+164
-198
|
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
|
O 47.5 (-112)
U 47.5 (-108)
|
|
|
Dec 13, 2025 3:00PM EST
Army Black Knights
Navy Midshipmen
12/13/25 3PM
ARMY
NAVY
|
–
–
|
+164
-198
|
+4.5 (-108)
-4.5 (-112)
|
O 38.5 (+100)
U 38.5 (-120)
|
CFB Past Picks
Remi—our in-house AI—prices every game and prop using multi-season priors, tempo/efficiency, injury/usage signals, and market movement.
We publish fair prices, recommended “buy-to” numbers, and confidence so you can bet prices, not teams.
This preview covers NC State Wolfpack vs. Duke Blue Devils on September 20, 2025 at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Odds shown reflect widely available numbers and may update closer to kickoff.
Want more? Check live edges, player props, and line moves on our CFB odds pages, and compare prices before you place a bet.
|
CFB |
LEAN | %WIN | UNITS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO@KSTATE | COLO +17.5 | 54.0% | 4 | WIN |
| PSU@RUT | RUT +14 | 52.8% | 1 | WIN |
| OHIOST@MICH | MICH +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| VATECH@UVA | VATECH +8 | 57.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| NWEST@ILL | LUKE ALTMYER UNDER 19.5 PASS COMP | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| ORE@WAS | DEMOND WILLIAMS JR UNDER 43.5 RUSH YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| MIAMI@VATECH | VATECH +18.5 | 54.2% | 4 | WIN |
| GAST@TROY | TROY -9.5 | 55.7% | 5 | WIN |
| DEL@WAKE | DEL +18 | 56.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| NMEX@AF | NMEX -3.5 | 56.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WASHST@JMAD | WASHST +14.5 | 55.3% | 5 | WIN |
| ILL@WISC | WISC +9 | 55.1% | 5 | WIN |
| WKY@LSU | WKY +23.5 | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| WASH@UCLA | DEMOND WILLIAMS UNDER 27.5 PASS ATT | 56.3% | 6 | WIN |
| TCU@HOU | AMARE THOMAS OVER 69.5 RECV YDS | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| TEX@UGA | NATE FRAZIER UNDER 65.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 55.5% | 5 | WIN |
| PUR@WASH | ANTONIO HARRIS UNDER 73.5 RUSH + REC YDS | 54.1% | 4 | WIN |
| OKLA@BAMA | UNDER 46 | 52.4% | 2 | WIN |
| UVA@DUKE | DUKE -3.5 | 54.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| OKLA@BAMA | BAMA -6 | 54.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| OREGST@TULSA | OREGST -120 | 55.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| UTEP@MIZZST | MIZZST -5 | 54.3% | 4 | WIN |
| COLOST@NMEX | NMEX -14 | 57.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| PSU@MICHST | MICHST +7.5 | 56.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| MISSST@MIZZOU | MISSST +7.5 | 57.2% | 7 | LOSS |
| FAU@TULANE | FAU +17.5 | 56.0% | 6 | WIN |
| NCST@MIAMI | NCST +15.5 | 57.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| KENTST@AKRON | AKRON -6.5 | 55.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| JAXST@UTEP | JAXST -105 | 57.0% | 7 | WIN |
| FSU@CLEM | CLEM -118 | 57.1% | 5 | WIN |
| UNLV@COLOST | UNLV -4 | 55.2% | 5 | WIN |
| OREG@IOWA | IOWA +6.5 | 53.3% | 2 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NEB +1.5 | 55.8% | 5 | WIN |
| KENSAW@NMEXST | NMEXST +10 | 56.5% | 6 | WIN |
| STNFRD@UNC | STNFRD +7.5 | 53.8% | 3 | WIN |
| DUKE@UCONN | UCONN +8.5 | 57.9% | 7 | WIN |
| NEVADA@UTAHST | NEVADA +9.5 | 55.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| SAMST@OREGST | SAMST +21 | 57.7% | 7 | WIN |
| NEB@UCLA | NICO IAMALEAVA UNDER 180.5 PASS YDS | 56.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| HOU@UCF | HOU -112 | 58.0% | 6 | WIN |
| GASTHRN@APPST | GASTHRN +180 | 36.5% | 2 | WIN |
| KENTST@BALLST | BALLST -2.5 | 54.5% | 4 | WIN |
| WAKE@FSU | WAKE +10.5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| WYO@SDGST | SDGST -10.5 | 56.7% | 7 | WIN |
| OKLA@TENN | TENN -130 | 58.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| GATECH@NCST | GATECH -5 | 56.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| MIAMI@SMU | MIAMI -10 | 54.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| IND@MD | MD +21.5 | 54.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| CINCY@UTAH | CINCY +11 | 57.6% | 7 | LOSS |
| OLDDOM@LAMON | LAMON +17 | 58.4% | 8 | LOSS |
| VANDY@TEXAS | OVER 46.5 | 53.7% | 2 | WIN |