The Air Force Falcons host Boise State on September 20, 2025, in Colorado Springs with a chance to prove that they are capable of rebounding from a disappointing 2024 season and once again becoming one of the Mountain West’s most feared and frustrating opponents. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force’s identity has never wavered—the triple-option offense remains their foundation, and it is designed to shorten games, control time of possession, and wear down opposing defenses by forcing them into a disciplined, assignment-based battle for four quarters. This approach is particularly effective at home, where altitude can compound the fatigue that opposing defenses already feel after facing the relentless cut blocks, fullback dives, and quarterback keepers that define the Falcons’ offensive scheme. The return of running back Dylan Carson, paired with a strong supporting cast of slotbacks and a quarterback comfortable in the option, gives Air Force the tools to reassert themselves offensively and test Boise State’s defensive patience. On defense, the Falcons have prided themselves on physicality and effort, and despite some struggles last season, they showed enough promise in their front seven to believe they can compete more consistently in 2025, particularly against a Boise State offense that will test them vertically and horizontally. The key will be generating just enough pressure on quarterback Maddux Madsen without overcommitting, as Boise State thrives when defenses become stretched and undisciplined.

If Air Force can hold strong on early downs, prevent chunk plays, and force the Broncos into third-and-long situations, they will increase their chances of creating turnovers or stalled drives. Special teams could also be a hidden advantage for the Falcons, as field position plays a critical role in their style of football and limiting the field for Boise State would only amplify their chances to keep the score within reach. From a betting perspective, Air Force enters as the underdog, likely catching around 7 to 10 points depending on market movement, but their history of keeping games close with disciplined play and unique tempo makes them an intriguing ATS option. The Falcons’ ability to cover depends on whether they can execute their offensive system cleanly, avoid turnovers, and keep Boise State’s possessions to a minimum, because if the Broncos dictate pace and force Air Force into a chase, the spread could become unattainable. Ultimately, Air Force’s best opportunity lies in staying true to their identity, leaning on the triple option to dictate terms, and trusting their defense to bend without breaking. While Boise State is clearly the more talented and balanced team, the Falcons’ formula of discipline, effort, and home-field advantage could allow them to turn what many expect to be a straightforward Boise win into a battle that is decided in the fourth quarter, especially if the Broncos make mistakes or struggle to adjust to the unique demands of playing against Air Force in Colorado Springs.